|
fishmike
Posts: 53904
Alba Posts: 1
Joined: 7/19/2002
Member: #298
USA
|
2005-06 season: And we thought Athens was bad. The pairing of Larry Brown and Marbury didn't work well for the U.S. Olympic team, but it was downright disastrous for the Knicks. Marbury struggled to play the game Brown's way, as being forced to enter the ball to the post and spot up played to his worst traits.
Even in this diminished state, Marbury's value became apparent when he sprained his shoulder in January and missed a game for the first time in five years. New York had won six of seven heading into the game, but without Marbury (except for an aborted five-game comeback in which he was a shadow of his normal self), the Knicks lost 15 of 17, and from that point their season was essentially over.
For the season, Marbury's numbers weren't bad ... they were just far less than what we've come to expect. He put up his usual numbers in many respects, but he did it while shooting a whole lot less. As I've mentioned in other Knicks' players comments, this was a direct result of Brown's strategy of feeding the post on nearly every play, so we shouldn't necessarily expect the trend to continue this season.
Scouting report: Marbury is one of the quickest guards in the league off the dribble, especially going to his right, and his terrific strength allows him to absorb contact and finish in traffic. That makes him a potent scoring point guard, even with only an average jump shot.
However, he offsets that with some weaknesses. He doesn't see the floor well and is absolutely terrible at entering the post, and can be guilty of overdribbling (but just to encourage him, the Knicks acquired two other guards who have shown him how much further he can take it).
Despite his great physical skills, Marbury has never been a very energetic or interested defender, especially in help situations. It's a variable thing -- he'll rise to the challenge once in a blue moon, and thanks to his strength he does a pretty good job when he has to defend shooting guards in a small backcourt, but generally he does a lackluster job. Finally, Marbury is known for being difficult and moody, although he's never been with a franchise that gave him much reason to smile.
2006-07 outlook: Marbury almost has to be better than he was last year, especially since the coach will be in his corner this time. Expect the Knicks to go back to running the high pick-and-roll, Marbury's favorite play, and expect his numbers to recover to something closer to his level of two years ago.
That said, he'll still hit a few bumps in the road. Defenses will be packed in because the Knicks don't have shooters, and at 29 he may be half a step slower than at his Starbury best. And as in previous stops, some of his shot-needy teammates may grumble if he doesn't share the ball more.
Most similar at age: Andre Miller
----------------------------------
2005-06 season: Francis began the year in Orlando but his penchant for overdribbling and the development of Jameer Nelson quickly made him expendable. He responded to his loss of alpha dog status extremely poorly, earning a suspension for refusing to re-enter a game and then more or less openly mailing it in during a seven-game stretch -- all Magic losses -- prior to his trade. Overall, Orlando was only 15-27 when Francis started and 21-19 when he didn't.
Francis got a reprieve when the Knicks decided they needed another ball-hungry guard with an outlandish contract, only to realize he'd descended into a lower level of hell. Befuddled by his lack of a consistent role and struggling to learn how to play off the ball, Francis averaged just 10.8 points per game as a Knick.
For the season, Francis finished with a PER below the league average for the first time in his career. His Turnover Ratio was the main culprit, ranking 60th among the league's 65 point guards. That offset a massive free-throw rate -- the second-highest of any point guard at 0.52 freebies per field-goal attempt -- and his usual outstanding rebounding numbers.
Scouting report: "Never use one dribble when seven will do" seems to be Francis' motto, and his penchant for overdribbling has grown more tiresome with each passing year. Francis finally seemed to get the hint midway through last season, making plays much more often after only taking a dribble or two, but he seemed confused as to how he might score without using up the other 23 seconds on the shot clock.
When he's not pounding the ball into the hardwood, Francis is one of the game's most dynamic guards. He's great in transition, rebounds extremely well for his position, and has the size and athleticism to defend either guard spot. He's a poor outside shooter, but is so quick and strong off the dribble that he can create tons of shots.
However, the overdribbling leads to turnovers, which have been a problem his whole career. He also doesn't see the floor well and consistently posts poor Assist Ratios. The one exception is that he's great at throwing alley-oops to the screener coming off a screen-and-roll.
2006-07 outlook: Francis is in an odd position because he's almost a carbon copy of Stephon Marbury and the Knicks really don't need both of them on the court. Because Marbury is the better player, Francis is the one who will need to adjust. He'll have to learn how to spot up for jumpers and play off of Marbury's penetration, tough changes for a player in his eighth pro season. Francis' contract makes him difficult to trade, so expect the Knicks to give the Marbury-Francis backcourt pairing every chance to work.
Most similar at age: Rod Strickland
------------------------------------
2005-06 season: The Knicks centered much of their high hopes for the season around their unrealistic hopes for Curry, making a crazy bet by dealing an unprotected lottery pick to Chicago as part of the deal for his rights. Thus, even though he stayed reasonably healthy and showed some improvement, many viewed him as a colossal disappointment.
Curry wasn't an All-Star, but his ability to score in the blocks was undeniable. He not only produced 21.0 points per 40 minutes, but did so with unusually high-percentage shot-making. Curry ranked second only to Shaquille O'Neal in field-goal percentage at 56.3 percent, but it was his ability to draw fouls that was even more amazing.
Curry's phenomenal rate of .814 free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt ranked fourth overall in the NBA, and was easily the best among players who were prominent offensive weapons -- defined as those with a Usage Rate over 20 (see chart). Even with a poor conversion rate at the line (63.2 percent), Curry ranked fourth among centers in TS% and 10th overall.
Free-Throw Attempts Per Field-Goal Attempt Leaders, 2005-06
All Players Team FTA/FGA W/Usage Rate Over 20 Team FTA/FGA
C. Andersen NOK 1.05 Eddy Curry NY 0.81
Michael Ruffin Was 0.96 C. Maggette LAC 0.68
D. Mutombo Hou 0.95 S. O'Neal Mia 0.59
Eddy Curry NY 0.81 Devin Harris Dal 0.58
Reggie Evans Den 0.81 R. Jefferson NJ 0.58
Based on all that, you'd think Curry would have been an All-Star last year, but he wasn't because he was so poor in the other facets of the game. Despite his size, Curry has been a supbar rebounder his whole career. Last year he made a sharp improvement but still only ranked 43rd among centers in Rebound Rate.
That wouldn't be so bad if the man wasn't redefining the term tunnel vision. Curry was the black hole to end all black holes last season. Curry ought to get some assists just by accident because opponents are so anxious to double-team him, but he had the worst Assist Ratio in the league. The worst. Only 1.9 percent of his possessions ended in an assist.
Worst Assist Ratio, 2005-06
Player Team Ratio
Eddy Curry NY 1.9
Alonzo Mourning Mia 2.2
Dikembe Mutombo Hou 2.3
Robert Swift Sea 2.4
David Harrison Ind 3.0
The low Assist Ratio is important because it makes it easier to understand why Curry was so turnover prone. His Turnover Ratio ranked 54th among centers, and was astronomical for such a high-profile scorer. But since Curry wasn't going to pass the ball out, he had to deal with lots of hands swiping at the ball and hordes of rotating defenders looking to take charges. Those offensive fouls hurt in another respect -- Curry's high foul rate helped limit him to 25.9 minutes per game.
Scouting report: Curry's size and touch make him one of the game's elite post scorers. He's capable of establishing deep post position, and from there he can turn with a quick hook or lean in and get fouled. He also has a decent jumper from 15 feet and in, although it would be nice if he'd improve his touch at the line considering how often he's fouled.
Curry's body is a serious concern. He weighs 285 pounds, plus or minus 15 depending on what day of the week it is, so staying in shape is an issue. And did we mention the heart condition? It scared the Bulls enough that they wouldn't re-sign him last season.
Curry's poor conditioning manifests itself most often on defense, where he is sluggish and usually a step late to help and is routinely beaten down the floor for easy buckets. He can push big guys out of the paint but he does little else well and is prone to touch fouls. Overall, the Knicks' defense was 5.3 points worse per 100 possessions with Curry on the court.
2006-07 outlook: Curry enters the year as the Knicks' starting center, but he's going to have a tough time improving on last season unless he gets in better shape and improves his defensive effort. That's theoretically possible since he won't be 24 until December, but if Curry is going to deliver on his All-Star potential we should start seeing results soon.
Either way he'll be a beast in the post capable of going off for 30 on any foul-free night, but his many other weaknesses make it unlikely he'll live up to the Knicks' expectations.
Most similar at age: Pau Gasol
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
|
10/17/2006 4:38 PM