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Hollinger's scouting report: JJSKinny / Crawford / Q
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fishmike
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10/17/2006  3:49 PM
2005-06 season: Jeffries made his living as the Wizards' defensive ace in 2005-06, usually guarding the opponents' top forward and doing solid work on LeBron James in the playoff series against Cleveland.

He needed to bring it on defense, because his offense remains a huge disappointment. Jeffries was well below par in the three most important offensive measures -- Usage Rate, Turnover Ratio and TS% -- and overall he averaged just 10.0 points per 40 minutes, a very poor total for a wing player. Unofficially, he missed as many lay-ups as any other player in the league.

Jeffries has a few positives besides his defense. He's a strong rebounder for the small forward spot -- as one might expect since he's 6-11 -- ranking 16th at the position. He's a good passer who ranked fifth in Assist Ratio, making him pretty much the only Wizard who looked to pass first. Jeffries also had a high rate of free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt, which would help his TS% were it not for his 58.9 percent mark from the stripe.

Scouting report: Jeffries is 6-11 but is a perimeter player, lacking the muscle and nastiness to play inside. Instead he uses his length and quickness to bother scorers on the perimeter. The Wizards played him on shooting guards at times and even put him on Chauncey Billups in one game, but those pairings taxed his lateral movement to the limit. He doesn't fare as well when small lineups force him to play inside, but he gets deflections with his reach and is a good wingman in zones.

Offensively, Jeffries is incredibly frustrating. He handles the ball well for his size and has decent athleticism, but he's a poor finisher around the basket with a maddening tendency to blow easy shots. He's an OK midrange shooter, but at 29.2 percent for his career on 3-pointers he's the first option for opponents to leave open when they want to double-team.

2006-07 outlook: The Knicks signed Jeffries to a five-year deal for the full midlevel exception, an offer the Wizards wisely chose not to match. While Jeffries won't have the most outlandish contract in Gotham, it's safe to say the Knicks overpaid for a player with marginal offensive skills.

If you ignore the contract, he'll pay some dividends in the short term. The Knicks need somebody who doesn't need or want the ball and is willing to play defense, and he fills that hole. Additionally, the team was very weak at small forward, where Jeffries now projects as the starter once he returns from a broken wrist. But that's more a commentary on the Knicks' many flaws than an endorsement of Jeffries, who is an eighth or ninth man being paid starter's money. At least he'll have plenty of company.


Most similar at age: J.R. Reid
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2005-06 season: Crawford was the one Knick who seemed the least affected by the daily insanity at Madison Square Garden. While everyone else's role changed on an almost nightly basis, Crawford settled in as the sixth man and was one of the league's best reserves. Crawford's 41.6 percent shooting may not seem like much, but it was his best full-season mark as a pro, and he hit four game-winning shots -- not an easy feat when your team wins only 23 games.

The most shocking change was in his free-throw rate. Crawford hardly ever got to the line two years ago, preferring to use a series of crossovers to free himself for long jumpers. Last season he was much more insistent about using his quickness to penetrate instead of settling for jumpers, and as a result he more than doubled his free-throw rate. You'll rarely see a pro make such a huge shift in this category -- in the last 20 years, only one other player has played 1,500 minutes or more in consecutive seasons and doubled his free-throw rate. (That was Byron Scott in 1991-92.)

Since I've been killing Larry Brown in most of the other Knicks comments, we should hand out some credit here. It's hard to believe that Crawford's shift didn't come in part as the result from some prodding from the man in charge, especially since his free-throw rate rose as the year went on. Thanks to the free throws, Crawford's 54.4 TS% was a huge improvement.

Scouting report: Crawford has exceptional quickness for his size and some great shake-and-bake moves that allow him to get by defenders. He tends to fall in love with his jumper instead of taking opponents to the rim, which is why his field-goal percentage has been poor his entire career. He needs to develop his midrange game further to take advantage of his ability to beat the first defender, and like most of the Knicks' other guards, he needs to see the floor better.

Crawford has long arms and can get steals, but he's playing far below his potential at the defensive end of the floor. He has good quickness and length, but his effort level is inconsistent at best and his lack of strength can be exposed by bigger shooting guards. The Knicks defended worse with him on the court, which is quite a statement, since New York's other guards weren't exactly All-Defense candidates.

2006-07 outlook: Crawford figures to take on the same role he did last season, splitting time between both guard spots and providing offense off the bench. He'll also be waiting in the wings as an insurance policy if the Marbury-Francis marriage proves unworkable. He's one of the few Knicks who is in the proper role for his talents, and he's not even that grossly overpaid. Look for him to blithely put up his 15 a game while the circus goes on around him.


Most similar at age: Latrell Sprewell
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2005-06 season: Talk about going from the penthouse to the outhouse. Richardson was part of the Suns' dream season in Phoenix in 2004-05, but last season he was stuck in a nightmare that would make Freddy Krueger shudder. As if taking part in the Knicks' dysfunctional mess wasn't bad enough, Richardson also struggled with back trouble all season and could never find the range on his 3-point stroke.

After leading the NBA in 3-pointers in 2004-05, Richardson converted just 34.0 percent, and was much more reluctant to pull the trigger. The back woes hampered his game in other ways, as the post-ups and occasional midrange jumpers that made up the rest of his offense all but vanished last season.

His TS% had never been a strong feature of his game but it slumped to 45.2 percent last year, ranking 58th among the league's 64 small forwards. For a 3-point shooting ace, that's unacceptable. Richardson held his own on the boards and was one of the few Knicks with a low Turnover Ratio, but that hardly made up for his scoring woes.

Scouting report: Richardson loves to shoot the 3 and has a quick release. Although he's not the most accurate player in the league, his ability to get the shot off quickly makes him a dangerous weapon from downtown. He's not as threatening off the dribble because he shoots from under his chin, so it's tough for him to fire away with a man nearby.

Richardson is very physical and murders small guards on post-ups when he has a size mismatch. His combination of leaping and strength also makes him a solid rebounder, especially from the shooting guard spot.

However, small forward is a better position for him overall, because he lacks lateral movement and ballhandling skill. He doesn't turn it over much because he usually just catches and shoots, but he can't create plays off the dribble. Richardson's slow feet are a defensive liability at shooting guard, but as a small forward he's a bit short and doesn't have particularly long arms. He makes up for those weaknesses with toughness and physicality, taking charges by the bucketful.

Unfortunately, Richardson's back may derail his career. The Suns were worried enough about it to ship him off to New York despite his strong 2004-05, and the Knicks may end up biting the bullet on the rest of his six-year, $43 million deal.

2006-07 outlook: The Knicks obviously have concerns about Richardson's back or they wouldn't have splurged on Jared Jeffries in free agency. If he's healthy, Richardson should be the Knicks' starting small forward, but as uncomfortable as he seemed last year this is hardly a given.

His back is bad enough that his contract isn't insurable, which provides him a different kind of insurance -- he knows the Knicks will have to keep him the next four years regardless of how things work out.


Most similar at age: Lucious Harris
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
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Hollinger's scouting report: JJSKinny / Crawford / Q

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