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djsunyc
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Free agent roundup: Big Ben and the domino effect
By Chris Sheridan
The NBA draft and its mind-numbing 15 trades are behind us, so now the focus shifts to free agency. There are a bunch of big men and point guards on the market, not many small forwards and even fewer shooting guards.
This summer's market will actually pale in comparison to next summer's if all the players with opt-outs, including Dirk Nowitzki, Rashard Lewis, Chauncey Billups and Paul Pierce, end up exercising them.
But for now, the dominoes will likely begin to fall as soon as Ben Wallace hears what the Detroit Pistons are willing to offer him. If he deems that offer unfair, the whole equation changes.
The Chicago Bulls, Charlotte Bobcats, New Orleans Hornets and Toronto Raptors will all have significant cap space, though the exact amount will not be known until the new cap is set on July 12. All of them need size, and any of them could make a run at Wallace if he and his new agent, Arn Tellem, don't like Detroit's offer.
With that huge unknown hanging in the balance, we enter the free agency season -- which officially begins at 12:01 a.m. Saturday when teams can begin contacting free agents and offering extensions to the draft class of '03 -- with an updated top 25:
1. Ben Wallace, Pistons
On the night the Pistons were eliminated from the playoffs in Miami, Wallace was pressed by reporters on whether he'd be returning to the Pistons. "Everyone knows where my heart is," Wallace said before pausing for effect. "It's in my chest." Wallace's relationship with coach Flip Saunders was anything but rosy at the end, and Wallace was miffed that Saunders benched him for the entire fourth quarter of the Game 6 loss to the Heat. A new contract starting at $12,000,001 would make Big Ben the highest-paid Piston and would balloon out to $55.2 million over four years. But would Wallace consider such an offer fair? Insider believes he wouldn't.
2. Al Harrington, Hawks
The Hawks' unsettled ownership situation is throwing a huge wrench into Harrington's future plans, with GM Billy Knight certain to be out of a job if Steve Belkin is successful in the courtroom in his fight to take over from his former ownership partners. Atlanta will have first dibs on Al, but Knight might be better served to go with the best sign-and-trade offer -- and there will be lots. Count on Indiana, Golden State and Minnesota making a run, and don't count out the Lakers. Another idea that might sound far-fetched but could become plausible is a sign-and-trade with Detroit for Ben Wallace.
3. Jason Terry, Mavericks
Agent Dan Fegan said on the eve of Game 1 of the Finals that Terry expected to get a five- or six-year contract, and Terry enhanced his value the next night by going for 32 points. The Mavs need his outside shooting, and you'd think they'd never let another top-tier point guard get away, but the equation changes if signing Mike James is their backup plan. Terry took a financial risk three years ago when he signed a three-year offer sheet with Utah and Atlanta matched it, and he wants to cash in long-term this time. Fegan is known to aim high with his monetary demands, and Mavs owner Mark Cuban is trying to exercise some degree of fiscal restraint, so this one is another potential wild card.
4. Nene, Nuggets (restricted)
Denver is trying desperately to trade Kenyon Martin in order to free up money to re-sign the Brazilian big man and make a run at the next guy on this list, Bonzi Wells. If July 12 arrives and Martin is still in Denver, teams with significant cap room could offer Nene a front-loaded contract that Nuggets owner Stan Kroenke would have to think twice about matching because of the luxury tax implications. Note: Teams now have seven days to match offers to restricted free agents, down from 15.
5. Bonzi Wells, Kings
In a market short on two guards, especially two guards who can score, Wells is a hotter commodity than his resume and his reputation might warrant. The general feeling around the league is that no one will step up with an immediate offer to Wells worth more than the mid-level exception, unless they can interest the Kings in a sign-and-trade that bumps Bonzi into the $6-7 million starting salary range.
6. Joel Przybilla, Trail Blazers
One of his primary leverage options disappeared when the Raptors went out and traded for Rasho Nesterovic, but the Bulls and Hornets both need size and have the cap room to afford the premium they'll have to pay for a big man. Remember, nobody gets overpaid in the NBA like centers, and if Samuel Dalembert is worth $8.4 million and Tyson Chandler $9 million, Przybilla will want to be in the same league.
7. Nazr Mohammed, Spurs
San Antonio will deem him expendable if it feels the price is too high. The Spurs believe they can get by at the position in this age of small ball by going more with Tim Duncan at center, backed up by Fabricio Oberto and the incoming Robertas Javtokas. But again, centers are at a premium when they go onto the free agent market, and Mohammed shouldn't have trouble finding a team willing to give him the five-year deal he's seeking.
8. Peja Stojakovic, Pacers
He didn't help his value by sitting out most of the Pacers' first-round loss to Indiana with a knee injury, which partially accounts for his fall to No. 9. Agent David Baumann expects the Pacers to make an offer a few minutes after midnight Friday, "and I also expect to hear from at least two other teams." Much will depend on how lucrative Indiana's offer is. Insider believes five years and $50 million won't get it done, but six years and $70 million probably will.
9. Jared Jeffries, Wizards
Another hard-to-find talented, young swingman, and easily the one impending free agent whose stock rose the most in the playoffs. Only 24 years old and a rangy 6-foot-10, his ability to defend on the perimeter will enhance his value as teams look for players with abilities suited to the league's new defensive rules. The Bulls like him, and they'll have enough cap room to get both Jeffries and either of the top two guys on this list.
10. Matt Harpring, Jazz
Kevin O'Connor said re-signing Harpring was the club's top offseason priority, and coach Jerry Sloan loves his competitiveness and versatility. But will the Jazz be willing to outbid others both in dollars and years? Harpring sounded decidedly undecided about his future after Utah's season ended, saying he wanted to compete for a championship. After eight years in the league, he's never been to the second round of the playoffs.
11. Mike James, Raptors
Hopefully he hasn't taken too many head shots while taking up boxing -- not exactly the brightest hobby we've ever heard of a guy picking up on the eve of going after the biggest payday of his career. Toronto is not interested in making a five-year commitment to a player who will be 31 when next season begins, so look for the Raptors to let him go. If Dallas is really as interested as Insider is hearing, it'll impact the Mavs' decision on Terry.
12. Vladimir Radmanovic, Clippers
Los Angeles is interested in bringing him back, and they can retain him at a discount since Radmanovic waived his Bird rights (and his ability to be moved in a sign-and-trade) when he accepted the deal sending him from the Sonics to the Clippers. But the Bucks could make a run at him if they can find a deal that rids them of Jamaal Magliore so they can move Andrew Bogut to center.
13. Marcus Banks, Timberwolves
He wasn't happy when the Celtics declined to pick up his fourth-year option, but it's going to end up being worth millions to him. Other teams were impressed by his play for the Wolves over the second half of the season when he displaced Marko Jaric as the starter, and a few teams might be prepared to offer him mid-level money. Are the Lakers one of them?
14. Tim Thomas, Suns
The guy sure knows how to perform in a contract year, eh? Thomas re-established his value while starting for Phoenix during the playoffs, and the Suns would like to keep him. They saved $6 million in cap space and an additional $3 million in likely future luxury taxes by trading Brian Grant and their two first-round picks Wednesday. But the guys with first dibs on the big money are Boris Diaw and Leandro Barbosa, who are up for extensions. Thomas won't get any more than mid-level money on the open market.
15. Sam Cassell, Clippers
If history is to be a guide, Sammy will be complaining about his new contract -- whoever gives him one -- by midseason. His age makes him a less valued commodity than Marcus Banks, but his history of being such a clutch player -- his 8-second violation in the playoffs against Phoenix notwithstanding -- will guarantee plenty of interest. In the short term, for a team looking to make a move similar to the one Miami made with Gary Payton, he's a safer bet than most of the other free agent point guards
16. DeShawn Stevenson, Magic
Took a big risk by opting out of the final year of his contract, forfeiting a guaranteed $3 million, and is counting on being a sleeper free agent whose value as a perimeter defender will be recognized and rewarded. Few, if any, benefit more from the dearth of free agent two guards. Eddie House joins that category if he opts out in Phoenix.
17. Drew Gooden, Cavs (restricted)
Had one great playoff game in the opener against Washington, then fell off the face of the earth as Anderson Varejao showed himself to be more than capable of taking over as LeBron James' starting power forward. Look for a sign-and-trade here.
18 . Rasual Butler, Hornets
The outside shooting specialist has come a long way since being the 11th man on the Heat's bench two years ago, and he's earned a payday somewhere in the area of $3 million. If anyone is willing to go north of that number, the Hornets will have to think extra hard about whether they're willing to pay the same.
19. Jackie Butler, Knicks (restricted)
For whatever it's worth, Larry Brown liked him a whole lot more than he liked Eddy Curry. The Cavs like him, and they're looking for someone to be ready to step in behind Zydrunas Ilgauskas. With New York committed to Curry and Jerome James, the Knicks might not match anything long-term.
20. Flip Murray, Cavaliers
Another player who waived his Bird rights by agreeing to a midseason trade last February, he's more valuable to the Cavs than he'd be anywhere else. We'd put Fred Jones here, but Insider believes the Pacers will match any offer the restricted free agent receives.
21. Chris Wilcox, SuperSonics (restricted)
Seattle was quite happy with him after dealing Radmanovic to get him, and they're not about to let him leave. Unless, perhaps, an absurdly front-loaded contract is offered by someone else.
22. Reggie Evans, Nuggets
Would be a nice fit for New Jersey, which is resigned to bringing back Cliff Robinson if nothing better comes along this summer. Melvin Ely of Charlotte would occupy this spot if he weren't a restricted free agent.
23. Lorenzen Wright, Grizzlies
This is where we'll see the Jerome James rule (unproductive centers still get paid) come into effect. Wright is finished in Memphis, but somebody will pick him up for a lot less money than the $7.7 million he made last year.
24. Speedy Claxton, Hornets; Bobby Jackson, Grizzlies
Both want to change employers, but neither will be helped by the glut of point guards out there, and the best they'll be able to do is a sizeable chunk of someone's mid-level. Someone will get good value if either of these guys stays unsigned well into August. There's at least one player who gets squeezed on the free agent market every year.
25. Dalibor Bagaric, Fortitudo Bologna (Italy)
Had a brief stint with the Bulls earlier this decade, but popped back up on scouts' radars after playing against Andrea Bargnani in the Italian League Finals. At 7-2 and 270 pounds, there's a market for him.
Others
Restricted: Alex Acker, Pistons; Trevor Ariza, Magic; Keith Bogans, Rockets; Antonio Burks, Grizzlies; Kevin Burleson, Bobcats; Ronald Dupree, Timberwolves; Francisco Elson, Nuggets; Devin Green, Lakers; Mario Kasun, Magic; Boniface Ndong, Clippers; Andre Owens, Jazz; Shavlik Randolph, 76ers; Justin Reed, Timberwolves; Bernard Robinson, Bobcats; John Salmons, 76ers; Awvee Storey, Wizards; Jiri Welsch, Bucks.
Unrestricted: Shandon Anderson, Heat; Darrell Armstrong, Mavericks; Stacey Augmon, Magic; Matt Barnes, 76ers; Lonny Baxter, Bobcats; Michael Bradley, 76ers; Rick Brunson, Rockets; Greg Buckner, Nuggets; Anthony Carter, Timberwolves; Kelvin Cato, Pistons; Calbert Cheaney, Nuggets; Antonio Davis; Richie Frahm, Rockets; Reece Gaines, Bucks; Devean George, Lakers; Eddie Gill, Pacers; Adrian Griffin, Mavericks; Alan Henderson, Cavs; Lindsey Hunter, Pistons; Jermaine Jackson, Bucks; Jim Jackson, Lakers; DerMarr Johnson, Nuggets; Ervin Johnson, Bucks; Jumaine Jones, Bobcats; Toni Kukoc, Bucks; Voshon Lenard, Trail Blazers; Sean Marks, Spurs; Darrick Martin, Raptors; Walter McCarty, Clippers; Alonzo Mourning, Heat; Terence Morris, Magic; Lamond Murray, Nets; Michael Olowokandi, Celtics; Greg Ostertag, Jazz; Bo Outlaw, Magic; Jannero Pargo, Bulls; Eric Piatkowski, Bulls; Scot Pollard, Pacers; Bryon Russell, Nuggets; Jamal Sampson, Kings; Charles Smith, Nuggets; Latrell Sprewell; Keith Van Horn, Mavericks; Jacque Vaughn, Nets; Jake Voskuhl, Bobcats; David Wesley, Rockets; Mike Wilks, Sonics; Aaron Williams, Hornets; Loren Woods, Raptors; Qyntel Woods, Knicks.
Player options: Pat Burke, Suns; Tony Delk, Pistons; Pat Garrity; Magic; Brian Grant, Celtics; Jason Hart, Kings; Eddie House, Suns; Jeff McInnis, Nets; Mikki Moore, Sonics; Ruben Patterson, Nuggets; James Posey, Heat; Darius Songaila, Bulls; Eric Williams, Raptors.
Team options: Malik Allen, Bulls; Alan Anderson, Bobcats; Brandon Bass, Hornets; Zarko Cabarkapa; Warriors; Matt Carroll; Bobcats; Royal Ivey, Hawks; Amir Johnson, Pistons; Maciej Lampe, Rockets; Keith McLeod, Jazz; Cliff Robinson, Nets; Donta Smith, Hawks; Bracey Wright, Timberwolves.
Chris Sheridan, a national NBA reporter for the past decade, covers the league for ESPN Insider. To e-mail Chris, click here.
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6/30/2006 1:41 AM
