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Help wanted: Fixing the 14 that missed the playoffs
By Chris Sheridan
ESPN Insider
While 16 teams are headed to the playoffs, the rest are going back to the drawing board.
A couple teams that missed out on the postseason can be branded monumental failures (that would be you, Knicks and Timberwolves), while others did pretty much as expected (take a bow, Bobcats and Raptors) and a few more can be slotted as major underachievers (yes, that's you Golden State, Seattle, Philadelphia) though not out-and-out disasters.
With the regular season wrapping up tonight, it's time for a closer look at each of the non-playoff teams, what went wrong and why, how it can be fixed, and what ways and means each team has to fix its problems. We'll start from the bottom of the standings in each conference, meaning the worst go first:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
New York Knicks
What went wrong: Coming out of training camp, incoming coach Larry Brown was not set on specific rotations or roles for his players, and he never did decide. New York set an NBA record for the most different starting lineups, and the Knicks went into their final game trying to avoid their 60th loss -- unprecedented in franchise history.
What needs to be fixed: The midseason trades for Jalen Rose and Steve Francis inflated next season's payroll to $125 million, perpetuating the way, way over-the-cap spending philosophy that everyone except James Dolan can see makes no sense. Most of the other owners are getting a hefty chunk of Dolan's money from the tens of millions he'll pay in luxury taxes.
How they can fix it: This year's pick belongs to Chicago from the Eddy Curry trade, and the Bulls have the right to swap first-round picks with the Knicks next year as well. New York does have two lower first-round picks, Denver's and San Antonio's. The Knicks also will use their full mid-level exception on one player (Speedy Claxton, Vladimir Radmanovic and Reggie Evans all make sense) and dangle Rose's expiring $16.9 million contract and Maurice Taylor's expiring $9.75 million contract to teams seeking cap space for the summer of 2007. Trading Marbury and/or Francis will be difficult, but not impossible.
Charlotte Bobcats
What went wrong: Emeka Okafor sprained his ankle Dec. 19, let it heal for four weeks and then sprained it again when he stepped on teammate Gerald Wallace's foot in a double-overtime victory over the Rockets. He hasn't played since. Sean May showed brief flashes, but not much more, and the 'Cats seven- or eight-victory improvement is no better than what should be expected of a second-year expansion franchise.
What needs to be fixed: They need a scorer, and they'll probably look for one in the draft rather than making a big purchase and a long-term commitment in what's considered a mediocre free agent class. Okafor gets his cast taken off his foot next week, so he's still got a long recovery road ahead. People close to Bernie Bickerstaff believe he'll stick around as coach for at least another year, seeing what he can produce in the Year 3.
How they can fix it: They have another high lottery pick, and they'll be picky shoppers on the free agent market. They'll make a value buy or two to replace Jake Voskuhl, Jumaine Jones and Kareem Rush's cap slot, but otherwise they'll keep their newfound cap room (their 75 percent cap limit expires in July, and they'll be as much as $25 million under) as their ace in the hole. Raymond Felton has made Brevin Knight expendable, but don't look for the Cats to trade anyone else. They're pretty happy with where they are. Other than Orlando, which other non-playoff teams have as high a rating on the hope meter?
Atlanta Hawks
What went wrong: They've doubled their victory total from last season, so there's been measurable improvement. But the price they paid for Joe Johnson was extremely high, and passing on Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Raymond Felton in the draft continues to defy rational explanation. They were 8-32 on the road, better than only the Knicks and Blazers.
What needs to be fixed: No offense to Royal Ivey, but it's time for a new starting point guard, and it's time to mix in a couple veterans, too. There are plenty out there on the free agent market this summer, some who fit the bill in both areas (Jason Terry, Speedy Claxton, Mike James, Sam Cassell, Bobby Jackson). Al Harrington will be an unrestricted free agent, and both sides still must decide whether it's best for Harrington to stay at a reasonable price or move on through a sign-and-trade to a team willing to pay him more.
How they can fix it: They'll keep their lottery pick, but they still owe a No. 1 to Phoenix from the Johnson trade, and next year's pick is protected for only the first three picks. They'll be under the cap this summer, but their flexibility on the free agent market will be hindered severely until they make a decision on Harrington.
Toronto Raptors
What went wrong: They knew they were going to be bad even before training camp began when then-GM Rob Babcock admitted even he didn't think they were a playoff team. No surprise he didn't last. Jalen Rose's impending departure was a big distraction until Babcock's successor, Wayne Embry, finalized the deal that got Rose off their cap and put them about $10 million under the cap this summer. The Rafael Araujo experience has been an utter failure, a waste of a No. 8 pick.
What needs to be fixed: Chris Bosh's future needs to be secured, but that can happen only if he accepts the extension the Raptors will offer him. Mike James' future is up in the air, too, with few believing the Raptors will want to commit long-term to him despite the stellar season he had. They'll have another lottery pick, and they need to find another Charlie Villanueva-type talent more than they need another Joey Graham.
How they can fix it: Most of the $10 million in cap space will be earmarked for a center, but there isn't much out there aside from Joel Przybilla and Nazr Mohammed, unless they go the trade route and try to get Jamaal Magliore from the Bucks. If they decide not to keep James, they'll try to move him in a sign-and-trade deal but would then possibly leave themselves with a gaping hole in the backcourt. Jose Calderon isn't ready to start at point yet.
Boston Celtics
What went wrong: Some teams are the right mix of young and old, but this one has young guys and old guys who just aren't a good mix. The young guys need more experience, including a point guard, Delonte West, who should be playing shooting guard, and the older guys, Paul Pierce and Wally Szczerbiak, do not make those around them better.
What needs to be fixed: Finding the correct remedy has been a tricky task for team president Danny Ainge, who would like to see Doc Rivers simplify his defensive schemes while he sets about the task of finding the right playmaker and spare parts to continue building around Pierce and Szczerbiak. At least that's what he says he'll do, although many do not believe him since he almost traded Pierce to Portland on draft night last season.
How they can fix it: Clearing Mark Blount's inflated salary off the cap was a key move, but are the C's absolutely sure they want to build around big men Kendrick Perkins and Al Jefferson? There's still a need for another big body if the right point guard can't be found in the draft. Ainge can expect plenty of calls asking what he plans to do with Pierce.
Orlando Magic
What went wrong: Building around Steve Francis and Grant Hill turned out to be a bad idea, but at least the Magic ditched that scheme and made a deal with New York that will give them loads of cap room for the summer of 2007. In many ways, the Magic still are paying for their bad drafts and bad trades over the past six years. They have little left to show for Tracy McGrady, and the Fran Vazquez miscalculation on draft night last year was huge. They can't afford a repeat with this year's pick.
What needs to be fixed: The young core of Dwight Howard, Darko Milicic and Jameer Nelson is as promising as any young threesome in the league, but the Magic can't be content with just them. If they can ship Grant Hill and his expiring contract in exchange for the right mix of young players, it'll jumpstart their rebuilding momentum before they dive into one of the best free agent markets in NBA history.
How they can fix it: Finding a way to get Vasquez to leave Spain would be a start, and finding a taker on the trade market for Hill would be a huge plus.
Philadelphia 76ers
What went wrong: A horrendous month of March knocked them from what appeared to be a certain playoff perch, and the organization was incensed at Allen Iverson and Chris Webber for showing up just before tipoff for the home finale Tuesday. It has been 14 months now since Webber came aboard, and his addition was not exactly supposed to lead to a first-round ouster and a trip to the lottery.
What needs to be fixed: As always in Philly, it's a question of what type of players need to be put around Iverson. And once again, there's a question of whether the correct mix of players for that task even exists. If they're committed to taking another shot with Iverson and Webber as the lead tandem, they'll need more experience and fewer overpaid underachievers (that means you, Sammy D). But the time may have come to blow it up completely.
How they can fix it: Trading Iverson makes more sense than ever, and trading Webber would be a boon, too. Too bad the initial task is risky and the latter is nearly impossible, as Webber is still owed $43 million over the final two years of his deal (Iverson still has $60 million coming over the next three years). Would any team be able to take on both of those contracts? The Knicks could, and a package including Stephon Marbury and Jalen Rose might get it done. General manager Billy King got the Sixers below the luxury tax threshold, which might end up saving him his job. But if Philadelphia wants to keep its payroll there, it won't use its mid-level exception. That'll make fixing this problem even tougher.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Portland Trail Blazers
What went wrong: The franchise promised a few years ago to move forward with players of better character, but they devoted most of their payroll to Darius Miles and Zach Randolph, both of whom were suspended in the past several days for egregious acts of insubordination -- Miles changing out of his uniform at halftime after coach Nate McMillan sat him in the first half; Randolph for leaving the arena during the third quarter of a game he was sitting out (he missed the team photo earlier that night).
What needs to be fixed: Billionaire Paul Allen is expected to sell the team, which is hemorrhaging money, and no one knows in which direction the Blazers will turn -- or even whether they'll remain in Portland -- until that issue is resolved. General manager John Nash could be out of a job in a matter of months, if not days. In short, they're an utter mess from top to bottom.
How they can fix it: Winning the draft lottery would help, but a more realistic solution would be to acknowledge their mistakes with Randolph and Miles and ship both out of town in exchange for expiring contracts that could make them the No. 1 player in the 2007 free agent market. Someone certainly will get a lot of phone calls, whether or not it's Nash.
Minnesota Timberwolves
What went wrong: The Szczerbiak-Ricky Davis trade worked out about as well for them as it did for the Celtics, which is to say not very well. It might have placated Kevin Garnett temporarily, but how long will it last? Over the past two seasons, they've been as disappointing as any other team in the league (except the Knicks, of course).
What needs to be fixed: Do they move forward with Garnett, or without him? Owner Glen Taylor, GM Kevin McHale, coach Dwane Casey -- along with Garnett himself -- all need to answer that question. They've missed the playoffs for two straight years, and Garnett's legacy is at stake. Right now he's as famous for what his contract did to the NBA as for he has done on the court.
How they can fix it: If their pick is in the top 10, they'll keep it. Otherwise they must give it to the Clippers as part of the payment for the Sam Cassell-Marko Jaric trade. They'll have the mid-level exception to use, but at some point Taylor will tire of throwing good money after bad. Marcus Banks will be an unrestricted free agent, and he might have been the best player they got in the big midseason trade with Boston. Their window was open two years ago, but now it's closed. It's a question now of which Kevin lasts longer, Garnett or McHale.
Golden State Warriors
What went wrong: Their strong finish to the 2004-05 season gave them delusions of grandeur they had no business believing, and they turned out to be exactly what they've been for years: A bad team in a tough conference. Coach Mike Montgomery never won the respect of the players, and GM Chris Mullin never overcame the bad deals from the past (Adonal Foyle) that he exacerbated with questionable deals in the present (Mike Dunleavy's extension).
What needs to be fixed: By all accounts, owner Chris Cohan is ready to blow it up. It might start with Montgomery and Mullin, and it might also include the shopping of Baron Davis. But a blowup is coming, and it might extend to trades of Troy Murphy and/or Jason Richardson. What they have now is certainly not working.
How they can fix it: If you're looking for a team willing to take a chance that Iverson might be a good fit, start looking here. They need to get out from under Foyle's contract (he's owed millions through 2009-10), and they'll get callers for Murphy. Davis is still owed $59 million over the next three years, and this might be their last good opportunity to move him.
Houston Rockets
What went wrong: To put it simply, Tracy McGrady's back went out. They couldn't win without him, even with Yao Ming returning from toe surgery and producing monster numbers. You marry yourself to a superstar, and you put yourself one superstar injury away from being barely better than the Knicks. The scary part is that McGrady's back injury might only get worse.
What needs to be fixed: If Jeff Van Gundy is such a great coach, what exactly has he done since 1999 except earn a lot of money and alienate everyone around him except his assistant coaches? A new GM is coming in, and Daryl Morey will spend a year apprenticing under Carroll Dawson before assuming control. At some point, he's going to have to bring in some youth.
How they can fix it: They're tied into McGrady long-term the same way they're tied into Yao, so all they can do is cross their fingers and hope McGrady's back injury doesn't worsen. They'll be in the draft lottery, and they'll likely use their mid-level exception to replace a couple of their older players.
Seattle SuperSonics
What went wrong: They overachieved so much a year ago, it might have given them a false sense of bravado heading into this season. They had too many players who wanted the get paid more than they wanted to win, and by the time Seattle traded Vladimir Radmanovic and Reggie Evans, this was already a lost season.
What needs to be fixed: Is Ray Allen staying or going? Better yet, what about Rashard Lewis, who can opt out and become a free agent in 2007 and might feel it's time to cash in with someone else. With the team up for sale and possibly relocating to another city in four years if a new arena isn't built, the Sonics might be on the path to tearing things down.
How they can fix it: They've fallen in love with Chris Wilcox, and they love Robert Swift. That'll be great two years from now, maybe, but in the meantime they're going backward, not forward. Because Lewis is likely to opt out of his contact a year from now, the Sonics will have to explore whether this is the best time to get maximum value in return. They'll get a lot of calls on Allen, too, and he could be the most valuable trade asset on the market this summer if Garnett stays in Minnesota.
New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
What went wrong: When they hit a snag, everything unraveled. And they tried too hard to make stopgap moves that ignored the crux of the problem -- they're too young and not good enough along the front line to compete with the big boys. Coach Byron Scott feuded with second-year guard J.R. Smith, and nobody filled the gap at shooting guard with any kind of consistency.
What needs to be fixed: The Aaron Williams and Marc Jackson/ Linton Johnson trades didn't help as much as they'd have liked, and the acquisition of Moochie Norris (under contract for $4.5 million next season) will keep them from being the free agent players they could have been. They run the risk of losing unrestricted free agent Rasual Butler over the summer, which would only worsen their perimeter deficiencies.
How they can fix it: They have a lottery pick as well as Milwaukee's first-round pick from the Jamaal Magloire trade. They'll have to make a decision on what they're willing to pay to keep Speedy Claxton, who will be an unrestricted free agent.
Utah Jazz
What went wrong: Carlos Boozer's hamstring injury forced him to miss more than half the season, and after he returned Utah's late push for a playoff spot fell just short. Several pieces are in place as the Jazz keep moving further away from the Stockton-Malone era, but they still need a boost in athleticism and a better shooting guard to help spread the floor.
What needs to be fixed: Both Larry Miller, the owner, and Jerry Sloan, the league's longest-tenured coach, need to figure out how long they want to perpetuate their marriage. There are too many signs pointing to a possible breakup to be ignored.
How they can fix it: They need to tinker rather than overhaul. If Mehmet Okur, Andrei Kirilenko, Boozer and Deron Williams can all stay healthy for close to 82 games, they'll be a playoff team next year.
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4/19/2006 3:17 PM