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djsunyc
Posts: 44929
Alba Posts: 42
Joined: 1/16/2004
Member: #536
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John Hollinger: Greetings everyone. I'm at Colgate University right now where I was speaking to a class that was studying analytical methods in sports. Now I know how Chad Ford feels. Actually it was pretty amazing to see so many young folks interested in this stuff. Hopefully I didn't scare too many of them off .... Anyway, on to the questions.
Paul, Orange County CA: Hi John how are you. If the standings remain the same until the end of the season, what match up would be more likely to have an upset outcome? and who has your vote for MVP.
SportsNation John Hollinger: I don't know if this would be considered a true upset, but I like Memphis's odds as a No. 6 against No. 3 Denver. I think they could even go to the conference finals if Phoenix doesn't get its act together defensively. On the MVP - I endorsed Wade a while ago and haven't changed my mind, but LeBron is making a charge.
Alex (Charlotte, NC): Who makes your all-NBA first team this year? Do you think that Kobe, with all the personal accomplishments and career defining performances he's had this year, makes it over Dwyane Wade, who's playing at another level now, fresh off the heels of his momentous showdown with LeBron this past Saturday?
SportsNation John Hollinger: I think there's room for Kobe and Wade in the backcourt -- there's no rule saying you can't pick them both. I'd go with those two, LeBron and Dirk, and then I'd cheat and take Brand as my center.
Tyler (Kansas): I'm Sorry but Chauncey Billups is the MVP. He has carried Detroit in huge wins (they are 5-1 against SA, Dallas, and Phoenix). Steve Nash is great but he has been totally outclassed TWICE this year by Billups. Seriously, if offerred both, would you really take Nash over Mr. Big Shot? I don't think so!
SportsNation John Hollinger: I would think hard about taking Billups over Nash, but I'm not sure why I'd be debating between those two when Wade, James and Nowitzki have been so obviously better.
Jon: John, love your work. Do you think the Kings should target a backup point in the draft, or do they have a stronger pressing need?
SportsNation John Hollinger: A MUCH more pressing need ... they get pounded inside on a nightly basis. So while upgrading over Jason Hart is a "nice to have", getting another big man with a pulse is more of a dire necessity.
Marco, New York, NY: You mentioned you endorsed Wade over LeBron earlier? How is Wade more valuable of a player than LeBron when LeBron has taken the Cavs to a similar record without the likes of the supporting cast Wade benefits from and without Hughes for over half of the season?
SportsNation John Hollinger: Three reasons -- because their records are only loosely similar, because Wade has been without Shaq for nearly as long as LeBron has been without Hughes, and because LeBron has Z while Wade has little else besides Shaq.
Dave Washington DC: Is Joe Dumars really HOF material as a player? As an executive, I think he has great potential, but as a player I think he was just better than average. I'm afraid he might open the door for other players who were very good and won some titles.
SportsNation John Hollinger: Considering this is the same institution that inducted Robert Parish and James worthy before giving Dominique Wilkins the time of day, it's hardly surprising. I don't mind Dumars making it, but I'd much rather see Dennis Johnson or Artis Gilmore go in first (great piece on this by our Ken Shouler today, by the way). Of course, if the Hall of Fame did things rationally, they wouldn't let Sandro Gamba in the door ahead of Don Nelson and Dick Motta. But I guess winning a silver medal in an Olympics that half the competitive teams boycotted is just too staggering an accomplishment to ignore.
Marc (Olar, SC): How can you say Wade has nobody besides Shaq? He has a slew of former all-stars at his disposal and people on his team that can actually shoot beyond five feet.
SportsNation John Hollinger: The key word being "Former." Have you seen Gary Payton this year? Dude is finished. And Antoine Walker, while techinally an "All-Star" at one time, is not nearly the caliber of player that Ilgauskas is.
Eric, Albany NY: Billups or Nash? Come on I think Kidd proved the past week he still is a better overall player then those two. He shut them both down on back to back nights.
SportsNation John Hollinger: This is what I don't like about the direction of the MVP debate at this time of year -- it's an 82-game season, but everybody and his brother wants to use the one game they saw on national TV as the sole criteria. Kidd did a great job against both players and probably should be first team all-defense, but to say he's been better than those two over the course of the entire season is absurd.
Ben (Detroit): As a Pistons fan, I'm astonished at the Nets current streak. Can you explain how they win with three great wingmen, and mediocre inside play? It seems like the mold for winning is usually more balanced play, but it works for the Nets. Can their play continue in the postseason, or should I be getting ready to watch Shaq duel with the Wallaces (+ a rejuvenated Dice) for the third spring in a row?
SportsNation John Hollinger: The key to New Jersey's streak has been their vastly improved defense. I attribute this to two things. First, they were getting torched by opposing shooting guards for much of the season but Kidd has been defending more of them lately and that's helped keep the numbers down. And second, they're getting a lot more minutes from Jason Collins, who is absolutely worthless offensively but is one of the best defenders in the game. I don't see why they can't keep it up into the playoffs if everybody stays in one piece, but the lame bench makes them extremely vulnerable to injuries.
Rob (Towaco, NJ): Where do you see the Magic in the standings at this time next year? Could they be an elite team in the east by next year?
SportsNation John Hollinger: No, I'd wait a year after that. Once Grant Hill comes off the books they'll have a lot of money to spend and a good free agent class to spend it on. Next year? The Howard-Nelson-Milicic crew should take a step forward and might sneak into the playoffs, but I wouldn't expect anything too dramatic.
Dave, Fort Wayne, IN: Why isn't Larry Brown being held accountable for this year's team, the talent is better than last year though not to his liking why is he given a pass?
SportsNation John Hollinger: Well, I don't know if free pass is the right word -- I believe our Chris Broussard blistered him recently, and other reviews haven't exactly been kind. I often wonder whether he's sabotaging things as part of some larger goal of reshaping the roster with players he wants, and I think I'm not the only one asking that question.
Kyle (Columbus): Hawks question. What is up with the emergence of Josh Smith of the Hawks? This guy has been playing awsome as of late. Is this something we can get used to?
SportsNation John Hollinger: Here's the thing with Smith -- he can do it for a quarter, or sometimes for four quarters, but the challenge for him has been to do it consistently over a period of time. I think he's getting better at it, but he's 19 and his mind wanders. As he matures, the hope is we'll see more efforts like last night's.
Lars, Houston, TX: Speaking of analytic methods, what is your take on the hiring of Morey by the Rockets?
SportsNation John Hollinger: Extremely interesting. The question is whether he was hired to use his expertise in improving the team, or to use his expertise in *selling* the team. But the Rockets as a franchise have always been intersted in analytical approaches, so if a team was going to do something like that, I'm not shocked that they're the ones.
Kyle (Chicago, Illinois): Why is Chris Duhon starting again? Please, explain it to me. The Bulls have two very good young guards who play well together and then there's Duhon.
SportsNation John Hollinger: Couldn't disagree more. I actually didn't think Gordon and Hinrich worked together all that well, especially defensively. Duhon has been better than Ben Gordon this year anyway, and he gives the Bulls a lot more options defensively.
Lee (Miami): Hey John, I love all of those various statistics that you came up with since you joined the ESPN team. Is it just me, or does it seem that the easier ticket to the Hall of Fame would be to experience success as a coach at either the college or NBA level (i.e. - Jim Calhoun last year and Geno Auriemma this year)?
SportsNation John Hollinger: It's so much easier to make it as a college coach it's not even funny. Go to the Hall of Fame's Web site and look at how many college coaches there are who never made a Final Four, let alone won a national title. Now count the number pro coaches who *didn't* win at least one championship. It's an almost comically biased double standard. There's no room for Nellie or Dick Motta, but I'm sure NBA failures like Rick Pitino and John Calipari will be welcomed with open arms.
Gilly, Mount Pleasant: Ask Jordan if Dumars is HOF material. He always said Joe D was the defender that gave him the most trouble. Joe D, was not about "individual" accomplishments, and that is why his stats don't stand out, but he was also a great teammate and a very classy professional. If it wouldn't have been for Jordan I think those Bad Boy Pistons would have been in the finals about 6 times, with 3 or 4 Championships.
SportsNation John Hollinger: I'm not completely opposed to the idea of Dumars making it, but I am saying that if you were to ask me "Who is the single best eligible player that hasn't been inducted?", Dumars wouldn't have been the first name off my tongue.
Sean (Atlanta): Hey John... what do you think of this new rule about TF's? It's clearly going to cost Sheed a game and break up the Pistons' streak of 73 games with the same starters. Is this rule really helping the league's image?
SportsNation John Hollinger: The idea is to provide a disincentive for players to rack up 30 or 40 T's, which Sheed has done in other seasons, so since he's the only to even hit 15 I'd say its working. On a side note, I'm still disappointed that when he broke the technical foul record in Portland, the Blazers didn't stop the game and have a small ceremony.
Joe (NYC): John Are these player future hall of famers? T-Mac, Vince Carter, Paul Pierce
SportsNation John Hollinger: T-Mac has been the best of the three in his career to date, but the back thing might kill his chances. Pierce seems to me the best bet for induction, just because he's played at a high level for so long and seems like he'll do it a while longer. Carter really needs a couple more seasons like this one on his resume in my estimation -- unless he can win a title -- because the mail-in years in Toronto will hurt him.
John (Chicago): Whose gonna win the Title tonight?
SportsNation John Hollinger: If I had to bet I'd say Florida, but in a one-game, 40-minute situation almost anything can happen.
Jason (Houston): What's up John? Just wondering......what do you think about Yao Ming's better play after the all-star break? Do you think this a sign of things to come or is just that he rested the first half of the seaon due to the injury he suffered? How do you like or chances next season, if Yao continues this type of play and Tracy is a 100% next season?
SportsNation John Hollinger: I think it's a sign of things to come, definitely. Now that the toe thing is fixed and he's learned to be more aggressive, he's nearly unstoppable. On the Tracy thing, I fear that his back is going to make him a 55-game guy from here on out. I hope I'm wrong, because he's one of my favorite players to watch.
Charles (San Jose): John, how big a role is Brian Grant going to be able to play in (hopefully) holding down the fort the first two rounds until Kurt Thomas can return?
SportsNation John Hollinger: I'm not encourage by what I've seen so far. Yes, Grant has the requisite size, and that may help at times, but he can't move laterally nearly as well as Thomas and offensively he's a spent force.
Malcolm (Philly): Huge week for the Sixers this week (2 games with the Bulls and 1 with the Celtics). Any way you can rig your formulas and algorithms to make the Sixers win those Bulls games? Sixers did the Bulls a huge favor by beating the Knicks in the home and home this weekend.
SportsNation John Hollinger: Ha ha ... got it backwards my friend. THe games determine what my #s say, not the other way around. At any rate, I think Philly makes it with a split against Chicago as long as AI and Webber are on the floor the rest of the way.
Todd (Seattle): Your all-NBA first team looks like a "who's who" of stat-sheet stuffers and Sportscenter highlights. Most 4th graders would pick the same five guys. No wonder it's so hard to find guys like Billups and Dumars, whose contributions don't include dropping 30ppg or throwing down tomahawk dunks every night. Is there anyone who isn't in the top ten scorers you'd even consider?
SportsNation John Hollinger: Sure, Elton Brand is on SportsCenter all the time ..... As far as lower-scoring players go, I'd put Billlups/Nash, Garnett, and Duncan on the second team, and none of them is in the top 10 in scoring. But there's a reason the guys who score the most points usually are considered among the best players.
bil(memphis): What is the future for the Wolves? We know KG WILL be there, but who can they bring in this offseason to help him?? Marburys name keeps coming up, but I doubt he wants to play in 'sota again.
SportsNation John Hollinger: Big questions all around. I think it's McHale's last shot to demonstrate some kind of competence. They might lose their No. 1 pick because of the Jaric trade (only top 10 protected), and the trade for Banks only pays dividends if they can re-sign him. It's like McHale wants to give us the answer to the question "If you have one of the five best players in the league, what is the theoretical limit to how bad your team could be?" Next year we might find out.
Brooke(Lansing, MI): Why is LeBron not getting the same attention as Nash, Billups, or Wade? What he is doing for the Cavs this year is amazing consdiering his second playmaker and scorer has been out much of the season.
SportsNation John Hollinger: Based on the posts in this chat, he is absolutely getting the attention. I've probably had more "Lebron for MVP" posts than any other single comment.
Travis (Canada): John, How much do you think Phil Jackson is regretting coming back for the money? His winning % will be below 500 before his contract is up in L.A!
SportsNation John Hollinger: I doubt that would happen unless Kobe got hurt ... if he can keep this gang around .500, he can do it the next couple of years too. And I doubt he regrets passing on the "opportunity" with the Knicks.
Scott (Potsdam, NY): I've got a question about your efficency statistics. When you count the possessions, do you add the offensive rebounds or subtract them? In other words, when a team grabs its own rebound, is that a new possession or a continuation of the old one? Whichever it is, how did you make the decision on which way to go?
SportsNation John Hollinger: It's a continuation of the old possession. That way the possessions for each team always alternate, and at the end of the night are guaranteed to be nearly even (at least within two of each other in a regulation game).
Tad (Ithaca, NY): Being in the media, why does it seem like you folks have such a distain for NJ? Especially national TV. RJ and Vince routinely lay down the highlights, but to see them live, you'd better have League Pass.
SportsNation John Hollinger: You think the Nets don't get national TV respect? What about the Clippers and Grizzlies? NJ may not get the love that LeBron and Kobe do from the TV folks, but a lot of teams are in line ahead of them as far as playing the no-respect card.
Travis (SLC): Thoughts on Boozer? He looks pretty good recently. Is he playing for the Jazz or showcasing himself for his next team?
SportsNation John Hollinger: I think the showcase scenario makes the most sense for all parties -- Utah really needs a shooting guard that can actually shoot and a big guy with more of a defensive identity to play alongside Okur. Boozer would be the chip to bring those pieces in.
Max (Tempe, AZ): Coach Brian Hill believes his Magic are still in the hunt for the 8th seed in the East. Are they?
SportsNation John Hollinger: Max, they're in the hunt for the 8th spot the same way you're in the hunt for dating a Swedish bikini model. Sure, they won't turn it down, but it's not something they're really thinking about as a distinct possibility for the immediate future.
Tony (Blacksburg, VA): Yesterday I was at the Cavs-Bobcats game and noticed that Flip Murray ran point occasionally, even with Snow and Jones on the floor. When Hughes returns, will Flip move over and take Snow's starting spot?
SportsNation John Hollinger: I think that's the right move for Cleveland because Snow is so poor offensively and Jones has been such an unmitigated disaster. But Hughes and LeBron will handle it as much as Flip does in that scenario.
Miguel (S San Francisco, CA): Is there anything sillier than the debate over who is the MVP? It's totally subjective.
SportsNation John Hollinger: Yes. The debate over Most Improved Player is exponentially sillier.
Tim (Toledo): Is Gerald Wallace All-Defensive material?
SportsNation John Hollinger: As much as I love Wallace and think he's getting a raw deal in terms of attention, I can't sign off on him for that. He makes a lot of plays but he still has some holes in his game fundamentally. Maybe in a couple years.
Pat (shelly, RI): Hey, John, thanks for hanging out so long and taking so many questions. While I do think your a putz, I love that you stick around and let us bug you to death.
SportsNation John Hollinger: But if you just spent an hour on your computer to hang out with a putz, what does that make you?
SportsNation John Hollinger: That's all the time I have unfortunately, but we'll do this again next week. Take care everyone and thanks for the great questions.
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