Recently it was claimed here that Francis is a better interior passer than Marbury, despite Marbury's superior passing numbers overall. I found that to be an interesting claim so I decided to investigate a bit using passing stats from 82games.com. The following are passing stats from Marbury and Francis combined over the 2002/03, 03/04, and 04/05 seasons.

Marbury
-------
assists per 40 minutes that led to...
jump shots: 5.59
close shots: 1.74
dunks: 1.03

total assists/40min: 8.35

passing TOs/40min: 1.83
average # of assists / bad pass: 4.55

Francis
-------
assists per 40 minutes that led to...
jump shots: 3.62
close shots: 1.36
dunks: 1.43

total assists/40min: 6.41

passing TOs/40min: 1.82
average # of assists / bad pass: 3.53

Marbury seems to be significantly more effective at setting up teammates for jump shots than Francis is, which is what accounts for his higher assist numbers overall. This may be due in part to contextual effects, e.g. perhaps Marbury has just played with better jump shooters than Francis from 02/03 through 04/05. However, it seems unlikely that all of the difference can be attributed to such contextual effects since the difference is so large.

As predicted, Francis has a slight edge over Marbury in assists that lead to dunks. However, Marbury has a nearly equal edge over Francis on assists that lead to FGMs close to the basket but aren't dunks. In fact, if you add up assists that lead to dunks and assist that lead to FGMs close to the basket, Marbury's and Francis's numbers are nearly identical: 2.77/40min for Marbury and 2.79/40min for Francis. Again, some of these differences may me due to context rather than differences in ability. Francis has played the last 3 seasons with Yao Ming and Dwight Howard, which could have boosted his dunking assist numbers. In fact, while in Phoenix, Marbury averaged 1.35 dunk assists/40min, almost identical to Francis's numbers, when he had the benefit of playing with Marion and Stoudemire. Coming over to NY and playing with Kurt Thomas and Nazr Mohammed saw Marbury's assisted dunk/40min fall to 0.73, and so much of the variance between Marbury's and Francis's assisted dunk/40min numbers may be due to who they played with. On balance, then, it seems as if the best conclusion is that Marbury and Francis are equally skilled at interior passing.

what are close shots according to 82games.com? A drive and dump off to somebody on the baseline 8-10ft away is not the same as getting into the lane and feeding the ball between defenders.

4 out of 5 dentists choose Marbury over the leading ball hog!

How interesting.

All I see is if our team plays better defense, it can create better transitional baskets. More "freedom".

Now is Scowbury can get on board that train, it can take him to an allstar game, or maybe the NBA finals!

This offseason, instead of having big parties with his west coast friends he see a shrink, get happy, preach his undying loyalty to Isiah and Larry and be all he can be.

He can get endorsements, get invited to the Letterman show, maybe even show up at a yankee game and wave hi to the kids.

Then in two years, he and larry can go on Leno and laugh about this season as they celebrete their championship season!

Thats what I want.

Posted by McK1:

what are close shots according to 82games.com? A drive and dump off to somebody on the baseline 8-10ft away is not the same as getting into the lane and feeding the ball between defenders.

Good question, to be honest I'm not 100% clear on this myself despite a fair bit of searching in the past. 82games.com collects data from the online game logs on sites like espn.com and nba.com, so the simple answer is that whatever is labelled as a "jump shot" in the game log counts as a jump shot, and whatever is labelled as a "close shot" or "inside shot" counts as a close shot.

I'm pretty certain that an 8 foot baseline jumper would be counted as a jump shot both in the game logs and on 82games.com. I think close shots are shots at the rim or closeby in the paint, close in enough that you wouldn't normally call it a jump shot if you were watching it. For instance, layups, hook shots, flip shots from a few feet away, etc.

Posted by Bonn1997:

Anyone watching the games over the past few years can see that (a) Marbury is a better passer than Francis; (b) Marbury is a better jump shooter than Francis; (c) Francis is a better rebounder than Marbury; (d) neither player is a leader or plays hard consistently on defense. Maybe stats don't always tell the whole story but this is one example where the stats mirror perfectly what actually goes on on the court as far as passing is concerned.

[Edited by - Bonn1997 on 03-21-2006 08:08 AM]

funny the coach doesn't think its as cut and dry as you do:

"He's so used to having the ball, being the principal ball handler, so it's an adjustment, and when you don't have an understanding of what we're doing, it's tough doing it on the fly," Brown said. "He'll be alright. I'm not too caught up in 17 games to evaluate Steve Francis."

one guys plays to ensure his assist count the other was happy running and gunning with Cuttino.

you've never heard anyone say Steph's concern is his stats? stop lying

20& 8 is the thing he and his support group hold on too.

[Edited by - McK1 on 03-21-2006 12:57 PM]

I didn't say it either. I said he is concerned with his assist count. He manages the stat - not his teammates production or the offense's efficiency.


STEPHON IS WELL AWARE OF THE EXCLUSIVE COMPANY HE KEEPS BEING 20&8 FOR HIS CAREER.

[Edited by - McK1 on 03-21-2006 1:26 PM]

Posted by Bonn1997:

STEPHON IS WELL AWARE OF THE EXCLUSIVE COMPANY HE KEEPS BEING 20&8 FOR HIS CAREER.

I'm sure Kobe was aware he had 81 pts and is leading the league in scoring too. Who cares what #s they're aware of?

they do

Posted by Bonn1997:


Who's "they"?

Jonah and the whale that ate him.

psych majors