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djsunyc
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Looking forward: the three-way battle to be No. 1
By Chad Ford
A rather intense disagreement is emerging about the 2006 NBA draft. Unlike three years ago, when LeBron James was clearly the best choice, for the third straight year there is no consensus on the biggest question of the draft: Who's No. 1?
The best NBA prospects are thought to be Texas sophomore LaMarcus Aldridge, UConn sophomore Rudy Gay and Gonzaga junior Adam Morrison.
Almost the only thing the three have in common is their position: Each is a forward, but they appeal to NBA scouts for very different reasons. Hence the debate.
Scouts believe that Gay has the most potential of any player in the draft. He's a 6-9, super-athletic forward with a freakishly long wingspan. Gay is the prototypical small forward and does just about everything well. He can slash to the basket, pull up for the mid-range jumper and even hit the NBA 3-pointer.
But while the talent is there, scouts wonder whether he has the intangible qualities that make physically gifted player into stars.
Two questions seem to hang over Gay at the moment: One, will he develop an in-between game? For someone so skilled he spends too much time hanging out on the perimeter. He needs to continue working on putting the ball on the floor and creating his own shot.
Two, can he take over games? So far, by failing to show a consistent ability to do that, he's raising serious questions about his assertiveness and leadership ability.
Aldridge is the one big guy in the draft who gets people excited. He projects to be primarily a four in the NBA. While he still needs to add muscle to a fairly lanky frame, that's the only real knock against him right now.
On offense, he is deadly both facing the basket and with his back to the basket. He's extremely difficult to guard in transition and he's a dominant force on the glass.
Morrison is the sentimental favorite. Not only is he the most dominating college player to come along in some time, but his quirky nature and similarities to Larry Bird have led to lots of intrigue, even among scouts. The last college player to come into the league with as much hype was Carmelo Anthony.
Morrison is a crafty scorer who can light it up from everywhere on the floor. He also has the intangibles down cold: He is a fierce competitor who shows up for the full 40 minutes every night.
There are two concerns that keep him from being the runaway favorite for the No. 1 pick.
First, he's average at best athletically. While it doesn't seem to bother him too much on offense (though it might at the next level), he doesn't get it done on the defensive end in college -- so you can imagine the problems he's likely to have in the pros.
Second, he has diabetes. While he seems to have it under control right now, how will the rigors of an NBA season affect him? Right now, there isn't a good answer.
So which one is No. 1?
In a situation like this, with three highly rated players who have no clear advantage over each other, teams usually look for the best fit.
Over the past week, Insider talked to scouts or executives from every team projected to be in the draft lottery in an effort to determine what each would do with the No. 1 pick. Some were open, some refused to answer. Here's Insider's take on where each team stands in the Gay vs. Aldridge vs. Morrison debate.
Charlotte Bobcats
Current odds of winning the lottery: 25 percent
The good news for the Bobcats is that two of the three top players in the draft fit a need.
The Bobcats could use another swingman, preferably a big small forward who can stroke the ball. That narrows it down to Gay vs. Morrison.
Gay's athleticism would be a great fit next to the big, relatively earthbound front line of the Bobcats. GM and head coach Bernie Bickerstaff is also a stickler for defense, which would give Gay the edge.
Morrison, however, provides two things the Bobcats could really use. One, he would provide a much-needed scoring boost and give the Bobcats a dangerous long-range threat. Two, he's more marketable than Gay. Given some of the attendance problems the Bobcats are experiencing, adding a popular figure like Morrison could help at the gate.
This is a very close call...
Edge: Gay
Chicago Bulls
Current odds: 19.9 percent
GM John Paxson is voting for Knicks president Isiah Thomas as executive of the year. Not only did Thomas take Eddy Curry and his heart concerns off Paxson's hands, he gave the Bulls what could be the No. 1 pick in the draft this year (and possibly the No. 1 pick next year, as well).
The Bulls seem to be set at small forward with Luol Deng and Andres Nocioni both coming along nicely. What they do need is some height and scoring in the frontcourt. Aldridge appears to be a slam dunk for them if they draw No. 1.
Edge: Aldridge
Portland Trail Blazers
Current odds: 15.6 percent
This is a tough one, because the Blazers have players of the future at both the three (Darius Miles) and the four (Zach Randolph). What to do?
After drafting high school players the last three years and seeing few dividends, it might be time to go with a guy who has a more proven track record. Drafting a nearby star like Morrison would inject some life into a pretty listless franchise and give the Blazers a pretty serious trading chip on the open market in Miles.
Edge: Morrison
Atlanta Hawks
Current odds: 11.9 percent
If history tell us anything, it's that Billy Knight will fall in love with either Adam Morrison or Rudy Gay and, for the third consecutive year, draft a small forward with his lottery pick. In 2004, he grabbed Josh Childress and Josh Smith. In 2005, it was Marvin Williams. This year, a source in Atlanta says Knight is in love with Gay's length, athleticism and upside.
But he drafted a similar player last year in Williams, so maybe he'll go with a guy who can help Atlanta in an area of need. Unfortunately, the draft is thin this year at the Hawks' two biggest areas of need, point guard and center.
So they might have to settle for adding some frontcourt depth. With Al Harrington hitting the free-agent market, having Aldridge around as security would be nice.
Edge: Aldridge
Toronto Raptors
Current odds: 8.8 percent
The Raptors could really use a center or a starting two guard. They're trying to build around Chris Bosh and Charlie Villanueva, which would appear, on the surface, to preclude them from drafting any of the top three. However, Morrison's dynamic scoring ability would be a hit in Toronto, and Villanueva, who's really a four masquerading as a three anyway, would make great trade bait in an attempt to land a legit starting center.
Edge: Morrison
Orlando Magic
Current odds: 6.3 percent
Here's another team that I think will have a pretty clear preference.
Orlando appears to be set in the frontcourt with the combination of Dwight Howard and Darko Milicic, and the Magic have a young emerging backcourt player in Jameer Nelson. With Grant Hill nearing the end of his tenure, it will be time to start thinking about a long-term replacement. Trevor Ariza is a nice player, but he doesn't hold a candle to either Gay or Morrison.
I think the defining factor for the Magic will come down to two things: One, while the frontcourt shows a ton of defensive potential, offensively neither Howard or Milicic is outstanding, so adding some firepower to the frontcourt will be important. Two, the Magic are still trying to find an identity. Morrison brings both things to the table.
Edge: Morrison
Seattle Supersonics
Current odds: 4.3 percent
This one's a no-brainer. Even though Aldridge fits the team's biggest need on the court, Morrison fits their biggest need off the court -- an identity. Ever since Gary Payton and Shawn Kemp left town, the Sonics have been a team searching for a fan base. Morrison is wildly popular in Washington and would draw fans back to the arena.
What would happen to Rashard Lewis? His trade value has never been higher. The Sonics could easily turn him into a much-needed frontcourt player.
Edge: Morrison
Boston Celtics
Current odds: 2.8 percent
The Celtics are set at the four and they already have Morrison -- his name is Wally Szczerbiak. That leaves Gay, who just so happens to be the kind of player Danny Ainge likes: young, long and athletic.
Edge: Gay
Golden State Warriors
Current odds: 1.7 percent
The Warriors already have two young small forwards and two young power forwards, so need won't be the issue. The key is which player is the best fit for the franchise.
Morrison wouldn't make much sense. He's a scorer who would never touch the ball as long as Baron Davis and Jason Richardson are controlling it.
Gay would be a good option, though they seem high enough on Mickael Pietrus to warrant giving him another year to develop.
That leaves Aldridge. They obviously love Ike Diogu, but Aldridge is bigger, more athletic and better suited for the up-tempo game the Warriors play. Besides, he's used to playing with guards who never pass him the ball. With Troy Murphy reportedly on the block, Aldridge makes even more sense.
Edge: Aldridge
Los Angeles Clippers
Current odds: 0.9 or 1.0 percent (tie with Chicago Bulls)
The Clippers finally make the playoffs and still get a lottery pick, thanks to Kevin McHale.
L.A. could go in any direction here. They could draft either Gay or Morrison and put Corey Maggette on the trading block, or they could look at Aldridge as a role player to bring off the bench behind Elton Brand. Given the Clippers' problems shooting the long ball, Morrison might make the most sense here.
Edge: Morrison
Chicago Bulls
Current odds: 0.9 or 1.0 percent (tie with Los Angeles Clippers)
This is the Bulls' own pick. They actually have two chances to win the lottery. They could even wind up with the first two picks, though the odds are against it.
See Chicago comment above.
Edge: Aldridge
Houston Rockets
Current odds: 0.7 percent
The Rockets seem to have plenty of holes to fill, but I'm not sure there's anyone in the draft who can fill them. They need a tough defensive presence in the post to complement Yao Ming, but no one at the top of the draft fits the bill. They also could use a sweet-shooting two guard with range, but that doesn't apply to any of the top three guys. Aldridge might make the most sense. He's a local kid who can score with his back to the basket.
Edge: Aldridge
Sacramento Kings
Current odds: 0.6 percent
The Kings just made a major investment for Ron Artest at the three. While Shareef Abdur-Rahim is doing a good job at the four, Aldridge is bigger and more athletic and has a higher upside.
Edge: Aldridge
Utah Jazz
Current odds: 0.5 percent
Utah's real need is at the two, and the word on the street is that J.J. Redick is the man for the Jazz if he's still on the board when they pick. If they beat all odds and win the lottery, the likely pick would be Morrison. The team needs a go-to scorer who can shoot with range. Morrison best fits the bill.
Edge: Morrison
Chad Ford covers the NBA for ESPN Insider.
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2/28/2006 2:23 PM