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Be like Dwight? For most sophs, no
By John Hollinger
Here's the tricky thing about the NBA draft: What matters isn't the player you have on draft day, but the player you have a couple of years down the road. Numerous players have bounced back from uninspiring performances as rookies to become superstars later on -- even four-year collegians like John Stockton, Steve Nash and Michael Redd.
Thus, one of the most important things teams want to see in a young player is progress. With the rare exception of a Tim Duncan or, this year, Chris Paul, most rookies struggle. More often than not, it's the ability to learn and adapt from their struggles that separates the Karl Malones from the Kwame Browns.
That's why this year's sophomore class has been such a disappointment. Yes, there are still plenty of talented players in the group, and it could still go down as the best crop of high-schoolers ever to enter the league. But the group hasn't done much to build on the promise of a year ago. Six rookies who started a year ago find themselves on the bench (Tony Allen, Sebastian Telfair, Chris Duhon, Shaun Livingston, Rafael Araujo and J.R. Smith), while several others have regressed after promising rookie seasons.
With the rookie-sophomore game kicking off All-Star weekend, now seems like a good time to evaluate how much progress the class has made from a year ago. With each player, I've included his PERs from last year and this year to help track his performance. As you'll see, a few players have made strides, but in general, the news isn't pretty. I'll start with the bad news:
Taking a step back
These guys showed us tons of promise a year ago, but have broken our hearts a year later.
Emeka Okafor, Charlotte Bobcats (16.35 PER in 2004-05, down to 15.18 in 2005-06)
The 2004-05 Rookie of the Year has seen his sophomore campaign swallowed up by injuries. Thankfully they aren't back problems, which was the greatest area of concern when the Bobcats picked him, but lasting only 26 games isn't a feather in his cap either way. Besides, he also looked slower when he was on the court and had a lot of trouble finishing inside.
Trevor Ariza, New York Knicks (13.24 to 10.35)
As part of Larry Brown's Confidence Reduction Program (TM), Ariza began the year with the humiliation of becoming Matt Barnes' backup and saw things quickly degenerate from there. Despite having the second-worst record in the league, New York appears more interested in giving Ariza's minutes to 33-year-old Jalen Rose. In fact, the athletic 20-year-old swingman could be on a flight to Orlando or Denver by the time you read this.
Tony Allen, Celtics (14.68 to 7.65)
Allen has missed most of the season with a stubborn knee injury and has played only 21 games thus far. Even when he's been on the court, he's been a shadow of the explosive leaper and strong defender that had the Celtics so excited a year ago. He's had off-court troubles, too, as he was charged with aggravated battery when an offseason bar fight in Chicago escalated into a shooting.
Shaun Livingston, Clippers (10.32 to 8.69)
A year ago, Livingston tantalized with his talent in his first year out of high school, but some were concerned about his frequent injuries and his poor shooting. A year later, he's frequently injured and can't shoot (37.2%). Until at least one of those things changes, his development will be stunted.
Josh Smith, Hawks (15.43 to 13.45)
Smith electrified the NBA with his amazing leaping as a rookie, but has yet to develop other positives beyond "Man, can he jump." He can't handle the ball and isn't strong enough to post up, so developing a consistent mid-range jumper would go a long way to establish him as a long-term starter. He did rip the Lakers for 21 and 15 in the last game before the break, however.
David Harrison, Pacers (12.77 to 9.84)
Harrison held down the fort inside when the Pacers suffered their rash of injuries a year ago, but apparently he forgot how to shoot over the summer. His field-goal mark is down from 57.6 percent to 47.8 percent, and from the line he's gone from a shaky 57.1 percent to a ghastly 38.4 percent. Can the Hack-a-Harrison strategy be far behind? For the optimists, Harrison's 16-point game against Milwaukee on Wednesday at least offers hope.
Anderson Varejao, Cavs (16.95 to 12.11)
Varejao suffered a shoulder injury playing in his native Brazil last summer that kept him out for half the season. Upon his return he hasn't quite picked up the energy and timing that made him such a force off the bench a year ago, and like Harrison his field-goal percentage has sank like a stone. He's at least had the good sense not to get a haircut.
See you in Yakima
These guys didn't do anything last year to get our hopes up . . . and haven't done anything this year either.
Rafael Araujo, Raptors (6.87 to 4.28)
Having proved to everyone's satisfaction that he was a wasted lottery pick, the Raptors finally abandoned the pretense of starting Araujo once Rob Babcock was fired. He has no chance of getting the job back and could even be bought out after the season.
Luke Jackson, Cavaliers (16.26 to 7.44)
The Cavs have been desperate for a wing player to come in and take advantage of all the open shots that LeBron James creates, but Jackson has failed to deliver. After his missing nearly all his rookie year with a back problem, Jackson's shot has been as hard to find as his razor. The stubbly soph is shooting only 34.2 percent while suffering savage beatings on defense.
Sasha Vujacic, Lakers (8.85 to 8.76)
The slender Slovene is getting plenty of minutes in L.A.'s paper-thin backcourt, even starting four games, but he's shooting only 34.2 percent. Granted, that's an improvement on last year's 28.2 percent, but it's far short of what the Lakers had been expecting.
Careers on hold
We won't know much about these guys until they get a chance to play.
Kris Humphries, Jazz (9.40 to 11.83)
It's tough getting minutes in a frontcourt with Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, Jarron Collins and Andrei Kirilenko. Then again, that hasn't stopped Greg Ostertag from seeing the floor. It probably doesn't help that Humphries never met a shot he didn't like but is only making 38.2 percent of them.
Pavel Podkolzine, Mavericks (N/A)
Podkolzine has played 10 minutes his entire career. The 7-5 Siberian giant is still only 21 but his near-total lack of game experience means he could take a long time to develop.
Beno Udrih, Spurs (14.24 to 17.25)
Udrih has hardly played this year as his job was given to veteran Nick Van Exel in the wake of Udrih's dreadful performance in the NBA Finals. This may be one of those rare times where the Spurs' wisdom deserves to be questioned, as Udrih has played extremely well in his limited chances and was better than Van Exel a year ago as well.
Andris Biedrins, Warriors (14.69 to 12.72)
Buried on the bench for most of his first two seasons, Biedrins has seen more minutes of late and the Latvian teenager has been solid, if unspectacular. He's one to keep an eye on for the future, though. Unlike a lot of other Euros, he already has an NBA body, and his 63.5 percent career shooting mark is worth noting.
Dorell Wright, Heat (5.10 to -2.44)
While the other high schoolers from this draft went to bad teams and got to play right away, Wright ended up on a contending team and has only played 93 career minutes thus far.
Treading water
Rookies are supposed to get better in their second season. So when they give the same performance, we're inevitably disappointed.
Andre Iguodala, Sixers (13.49 to 14.34)
Philly's defensive stopper hasn't done enough stopping to keep the Sixers from being one of the league's worst defensive teams, and he's still had trouble converting his incredible athleticism into a reliable offensive weapon. He has improved his 3-point stroke, however, hitting 40.0 percent this year.
Josh Childress, Hawks (15.20 to 16.03)
Childress got off to a very slow start for a second straight season, but finally gained traction around the holidays and has done well since. Childress's Shawn Marion-esque jumper has found the net much more this year, as he ranks second in the NBA in true-shooting percentage, but his other numbers are down.
Sebastian Telfair, Trail Blazers (9.59 to 11.22)
Telfair lost his job to Steve Blake, but he probably shouldn't have been starting in the first place. He was unready when the Blazers threw him into the fire a year ago, and it was naïve to think he'd grow into the job in less than a year's time. Telfair has made some improvements -- he's really cut his turnovers, for instance -- but unless he gets a jumper he's just a quicker version of Kevin Ollie.
Matt Bonner, Raptors (14.64 to 13.69)
Big Red made a splash in his rookie season by shooting 53.3 percent from the floor, but hasn't been able to sustain that stellar marksmanship in his second season. Nonetheless, he's done just enough to stay in the rotation in spite of his defensive shortcomings.
Al Jefferson, Celtics (16.59 to 17.76)
Jefferson's production numbers are fine. It's the other end of the court that's killing him. Jefferson has been painfully slow in rotating at the defensive end, and is picking up so many fouls trying (one every 6.7 minutes, to be exact) that it's been difficult to keep him on the court. A series of ankle sprains has also stifled his progress.
Ben Gordon, Bulls (14.80 to 13.93)
Gordon won the Sixth Man award a year ago thanks to a series of electric fourth quarters, but has had trouble finding the range this season. Despite a recent stretch of three straight 30-point games, Gordon's points per minute are well down from a year ago and he's earning fewer free-throw attempts.
Showing signs
These guys might not be setting hearts aflutter, but their slow, steady progress could make them quite desirable in another year or two
Viktor Khryapa, Trail Blazers (8.90 to 11.62)
The new Ryan Bowen, Khryapa is not the most gifted offensive player on the planet but earned a starting job in Portland with his defense and hustle. Unfortunately, the 6-9 forward is probably headed back to the bench now that Darius Miles is healthy.
J.R. Smith, Hornets (10.84 to 13.55)
Don't read too much into Smith's benching. Yes, his defense and shot selection both need work, but he still was playing much better than he had as a rookie. The real problem was that the Hornets unexpectedly found themselves in a playoff race and couldn't afford to waste any more minutes on Smith's development.
Carlos Delfino, Pistons (8.54 to 11.72)
Delfino hurt his knee as a rookie and never earned Larry Brown's trust, but has cracked the Pistons' rotation in his second season. He's been slow to turn the corner offensively, however, and with his years of European seasoning was expected to have a faster learning curve than most. And in a major upset, nobody has attempted to nickname him "Mike" yet.
Luol Deng, Bulls (14.16 to 15.68)
Chicago's smooth forward couldn't do any offseason work after injuring his wrist at the end of last season, so it was a surprise to see him begin the year without skipping a beat. While some would like to see him get more aggressive offensively, Deng is only 20 years old and remains among the most promising players in the game.
Chris Duhon, Bulls (9.80 to 13.03)
Duhon lost his starting job just after New Year's, but he's become a much more reliable offensive player than he was a year ago. He's more than doubled his fre-throw attempts thanks to a greater willingness to put it on the floor, without making more turnovers.
Leaping forward
Now we get to the good stuff. While most of the rookies have shown halting progress, we still have a few gems from this year's sophomore class. The envelopes, please:
Delonte West, Celtics (12.27 to 15.42)
Coming into this year, West had to prove two things -- that he could stay healthy and that he could play the point. Score both in his favor. While West doesn't have any assist titles in his future, he stretches defenses with his shooting and doesn't turn it over. As an added plus, he may be the best shot-blocking point guard I've ever seen.
Jameer Nelson, Magic (14.47 to 18.59)
All those folks who hollered when former college player of the year Nelson lasted until the 20th pick a year ago had a point. Orlando appears to have the steal of the 2004 draft in the pint-sized point guard, who had badly outplayed the more heralded Steve Francis before hurting his foot last month.
Dwight Howard, Magic (17.23 to 19.26)
It's possible the Magic got the two best players from this draft. (And yet they still stink. That's what you get for trading T-Mac.) In Howard's case, it's no big surprise. At the ripe old age of 20, the top overall pick a year ago is leading the NBA in rebounding while shooting 51.2 percent from the floor. If he ever gets a post game, watch out.
Kirk Snyder, Hornets (8.48 to 15.66)
Unwanted in Utah after behaving badly and playing worse, the Jazz essentially traded Snyder for Greg Ostertag. Think they might want a do-over on that one? Snyder's sudden development has been an underrated reason beyhind the Hornets' overnight turnaround, as he's displayed the shooting and ballhandling skills that had made him so coveted coming out of college.
Kevin Martin, Kings (8.67 to 15.44)
The "other" K-Mart, this Martin got a chance with Bonzi Wells's injury and ran with it, injecting much needed athleticism to the Kings' attack. He's also been surprisingly consistent with an awkward jumper that provides basketball's answer to the Leaning Tower of Pisa. In fact, Martin's .633 True Shooting Percentage leads the NBA
Robert Swift, Sonics (4.95 to 13.90)
After drafting Swift out of high school, the Sonics threw him in a meat locker for a year and a half before dragging him out when Bob Weiss was fired. Lo and behold, it turns out he can play. Swift is shooting 52.6 percent from the floor and despite a slender build has proved to be quite effective on the glass.
Devin Harris, Mavericks (14.70 to 17.83)
He's still stuck behind Jason Terry in Dallas, but that could change in a big way a year from now. With his quick first step and improved game management, Harris has played so well that the Mavs have to strongly consider letting Terry walk as a free agent this summer and using the money to shore up their frontcourt.
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