Preseason award predictions
Mike Kahn / Special to FOXSports.com


Gregg Popovich has his own definition of a most valuable player.

Three NBA titles and three NBA finals MVPs in seven years spell Tim Duncan.
"The fortunate thing for us is that it seems that, given enough talent, all pieces fit around Timmy," Popovich said. "He's figured it out. If you look at '99 we played with Avery (Johnson), Jarron Jackson and Mario (Elie) and then he plays with Tony (Parker) and Manu (Ginobili) as rookies in 2003. Then last year was a different team even though Tony and Manu were there. He's playing with Brent Barry, Robert Horry off the bench and Nazr (Mohammed) who got there halfway through the year.

"Timmy has an uncanny ability of allowing people to come in and have the pieces fit around him."

That explains why, perhaps, in a survey of the 30 NBA general managers by NBA.com, Duncan earned 78 percent of the votes. And while Duncan is a safe and logical preseason pick, he's not ours as we take a not-so conventional look into the crystal ball of the 2005-06 regular season.

Not only will we take you to the pinnacle awards presented at the end of every season, but we'll also reveal the bottom of the barrel as we see it.

So hang on for an interesting trip filled with perspective you may not have considered as the NBA regular season unfolds next week.


Most valuable player
LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers. Last season, James, at the age of 20, averaged 27.2 points, 7.4 rebounds and 7.2 assists, joining Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan, Larry Bird and John Havlicek as the only players in history to reach those lofty numbers in the same season. But there is this creeping suspicion that Shaquille O'Neal is on a mission for the Miami Heat; Duncan is always a top candidate. Kobe Bryant will be a huge factor in the West and so will Tracy McGrady.


Least valuable player
Jerome James, New York Knicks. Maybe it wasn't fair that everybody out West knew that James' career playoff series against the Sacramento Kings and Brad Miller, who was coming back from a broken leg, was a fluke. But to commit $30 million to a 7-footer with such a tendency to blow up his nickname is "Big Snacks," was a stretch from the very beginning. He'll talk a great game, but give everybody in New York 15 games into the regular season before they realize James is on his own trip and nobody else will tag along.

Coach of the year
George Karl, Denver Nuggets. Even though Karl picked up the team 42 games into last season, he nearly was worthy of the award last season with their 32-8 finish. The Nuggets may not win the Northwest Division, but they'll be in the thick of the playoff hunt. Keep an eye on what Phil Jackson does with the Lakers, and Flip Saunders transitioning the Detroit Pistons. Rick Carlisle could push the Indiana Pacers to the best record in the East and Larry Brown could change the New York Knicks. Popovich is always worthy, but always worthy, like Duncan, makes it too boring a pick.


First coach fired
Sam Mitchell, Toronto Raptors. The situation is so volatile with the Raptors fading into oblivion, coupled with Mitchell's mercurial nature, that something major could unsettle this entire season in an instant as they seek to regain the public confidence.


Rookie of the year
Chris Paul, New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets. They're going to hand him the ball and let him play. Now that Milwaukee has traded for Jamaal Magloire, Andrew Bogut may not get the minutes or opportunities to be as productive as anticipated. Also, consider Sean May, Danny Granger and Deron Williams.


Rookie bust of the year

It could be many, many years before Andrew Bynum contributes much to the Lakers. (Chris Carlson / Associated Press)

Andrew Bynum, Los Angeles Lakers. It's understandable why the Lakers went for the big man long range, but why go for a high school kid when Jackson isn't likely to be coaching long enough to gather the benefit of his growth?


Best sixth man
Michael Finley, San Antonio Spurs. This was a perfect addition to the Spurs. Fin won't have the same kind of pressure to produce with the Spurs as he did with the Mavericks. Instead, he'll be expected to provide instant offense from the perimeter and run the floor in quick bursts. He'll make them better. Antoine Walker will help the Miami Heat, Chicago's Ben Gordon will be a candidate again, Golden State's Mickeal Pietrus and Denver's Earl Boykins will both be a factor.


Worst starter
Adonal Foyle, Golden State Warriors. Great guy, decent shot-blocker, fair rebounder and a zero offensively. He's so sluggish on the floor, he appears injured even when he's not. He's very thick and strong and causes problems inside, but he's always erratic.


Best defensive player
Ben Wallace, Detroit Pistons. Big Ben always changes games with his defense. He'll attack ballhandlers with a sudden attack on the perimeter, block shots and steal passes inside and just cause havoc consistently. But Ron Artest is back and will be a defensive force , Bruce Bowen is the best perimeter defender, and Andrei Kirilenko may end up being the best all-around defender of all.


Worst defensive player
Jason Williams, Miami Heat. It will be interesting to see how Stan Van Gundy and Pat Riley respond to the lack of fundamental defense he will play on the perimeter. There was a reason why the Grizzlies always pulled Williams in the fourth quarter of games, and it wasn't his ballhandling or shooting. He didn't stop the ball and his penchant for steals don't make up for his defensive lapses.


Most improved player
Carmelo Anthony, Denver Nuggets. With the weight of all the off-season woes in 2004 ancient history, 'Melo has trimmed down, gotten stronger and regained his conference. He should become an All-Star this season. Also considered are Toronto's Chris Bosh, T.J. Ford back playing at Milwaukee, Portland's Darius Miles and Atlanta's Joe Johnson could become a star.


Most deteriorated player
Michael Olowokandi, Minnesota Timberwolves. Yes, he really was the No. 1 pick overall in the 1998 draft, although Kandi hasn't averaged as many as 7.0 points or six rebounds in three years. Still just 30, he's only averaged double figures in scoring twice, never reached double figures in rebounding, nor 2.0 blocks in his career. And he's getting worse.


Executive of the year
Gregg Popovich, San Antonio Spurs. For Pop and R.C. Buford to add Michael Finley and Nick Van Exel to the defending champions just proves they always have their eye on the ball. They have a great feel for the players who fit around Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker and Bruce Bowen. Also in the running are Sacramento's Geoff Petrie, Cleveland's Danny Ferry, Larry Bird at Indiana and New York's Isiah Thomas.


Worst executive
Otis Smith and Dave Twardzik, Orlando Magic. The twin general managers brought back Brian Hill as coach, then drafted Fran Vasquez from Spain when they didn't even have a clue that he wasn't interested in playing in the United States, which speaks volumes of their blind spots. With Steve Francis, Grant Hill and Dwight Howard to build around, they should be in better shape.


Surprise team
Los Angeles Lakers. The Lake Show won't dominate the West, but presuming Phil Jackson gets Kobe Bryant and Lamar Odom on the same page, maybe, just maybe Kwame Brown turns into a player and Devean George bounces back, they can make the playoffs and be dangerous. Also keep an eye on the Milwaukee Bucks, Golden State Warriors, Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks.


Disappointing team
Boston Celtics. They won the Atlantic Division last season, but have virtually no chance at all this time around. It is highly unlikely they make the playoffs with their continued youth movement and lack of point guard.


Who's going to win it?
Eastern Conference playoff teams: Indiana, Miami, New Jersey, Detroit and Cleveland. On the bubble: Chicago, Milwaukee, Philadelphia and New York.

Western Conference playoff teams: San Antonio, Sacramento, Denver, Houston and Dallas. On the bubble: Seattle, Phoenix, Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota.

Conference finals: Indiana defeats Miami; San Antonio defeats Sacramento.

NBA champion: Indiana Pacers.

that's right. keep sleeping on snacks . . . all the way to MOST IMPROVED PLAYER!

Posted by Allanfan20:

I think he'll be very improved in the Nathans hotdog eating contest, but it's still gonna be tough for him to compete with Kybashi (Sp?) but I would be him in ohhhhh, so the Clarence Weatherspoon, Tractor Traylor category, which is about a level and a half below. I think at this rate, Big Gay will get there sooner than you expect.

that nathans guy is unreal, isn't he? he's small and skinny. but last year he looked like he was gonna puke.

Jerome James for LVP. I love it.

Posted by MaTT4281:

I am in complete and utter shock...no one on our roster was chosen as the worst defensive player!
Let's hope that's a good sign.

mo taylor is leading a protest vigil outside his home.

JJ gets the nod over Jackie by LB--LB must see something he really likes in James.

Posted by Knight:

JJ gets the nod over Jackie by LB--LB must see something he really likes in James.

Yeah, he's 7 feet 1 and he's wide. He can really clog the middle and hes a good shotblocker too.