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fishmike
Posts: 53902
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Joined: 7/19/2002
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With the NBA and college basketball season set to get underway, and with a full summer season and international tournaments wrapping up, NBA scouts are already beginning to rank players as they prepare for the upcoming scouting season.
G. Oden
Early on, the consensus is that, like the last two drafts, there are no potential superstars available and that a number of players have a shot at being the top overall pick in the draft. Had the NBA not passed the age restriction, high school senior Greg Oden would have been, hands down, the top pick in the draft and afforded the status of a potential superstar.
However, combine the plethora of underclassman defections in the 2005 draft with the new age restrictions that prohibit high school seniors from declaring for the draft, and the pool is rather shallow.
While scouts like a number of players who will be eligible for the draft, many of them are unproven and the overall depth of the draft looks thin. At least that's what they're saying now.
Almost every year scouts start claiming that the sky is falling around this time of the year. However, in years' past, by the time we hit April, they're falling over themselves on a number of different prospects.
While no consensus top 10 exists among scouts right now, after making a number of phone calls, here's a look at our first big board of the year -- the top 10 projected prospects for the 2006 NBA draft:
Chad Ford's Big Board
Rank Player Breakdown
Rudy Gay
UConn Vitals: Forward, 6-9, 220, Soph.
The skinny: Scouts have been high on Gay for the past two seasons, but he's not a slam dunk No. 1 pick. He fell short of expectations this summer. Still, the belief is that Gay could be a Grant Hill-type prototypical NBA forward someday. He's long, athletic, polished, can play both on the perimeter and in the paint. But is he a leader? Will he develop an in-between game? A better comparison may be Shareef Abdur-Rahim.
Andrea Bargnani
Italy Vitals: Forward, 7-0, 225, 19 years old
The skinny: NBA teams have grown more gun shy of young, skinny European forwards with reputations of being the next Dirk Nowitzki. Three years ago, someone like Bargnani would have ranked this high on reputation and principle alone. Nowadays, they're having trouble getting attention in the first round. Bargnani may be different.
After an impressive season with Benetton, teams are expecting huge things this year. He's tall, athletic, can play multiple positions and unlike many of the European Nowitzki pretenders, he has experience. If he has a big season, he'll be a serious contender for the top pick in the draft. If his progress levels off or he disappoints (the way Martynas Andriuskevicius did last year) his stock will plummet. It's put-up or shut-up time for Euro draft prospects right now. Can Bargnani deliver?
Rajon Rondo
Kentucky Vitals: Point Guard, 6-2, 175, Soph.
The skinny: It there's one truism in the NBA draft it's that bad teams usually need young, capable point guards. In the past two drafts, three of the first five players taken were point guards. This year, Deron Williams, Chris Paul and Raymond Felton all went top five. In 2004, Ben Gordon, Shaun Livingston and Devin Harris made the jump.
The 2006 draft shouldn't be much different. Scouts love both Rondo and Daniel Gibson, and if he gets totally healthy, Sergio Rodriguez might also get consideration in the top 10. Rondo is an amazing athlete, has unbelievable quickness, is a great defender, knows how to run a team and is emerging on the offensive end. After an impressive performance for Team USA this summer at the under-21 championships, he has a leg up over Gibson.
Daniel Gibson
Texas Vitals: Point Guard, 6-3, 190 Soph.
The skinny: Gibson, however, isn't far behind. He's got more size and is a much better shooter from the perimeter. Scouts aren't totally convinced that he'll be a pass-first point guard in the league, but given his size, he doesn't have to be. If he can lead a talented Texas team deep into the tournament, he could move ahead of Rondo (much like Williams bested Paul) at the end of the day.
LaMarcus Aldridge
Texas Vitals: Forward, 6-11, 225, Soph.
The skinny: Putting Aldridge this high is a bit of a stretch. On potential, he could get here, or even higher. He's long, athletic and very skilled for a kid his size. Injuries cut short a promising freshman year. If he stays healthy and helps Texas become an elite team, he'll have scouts fighting over him. Some scouts compare him to a young Danny Manning. Others to Chris Bosh.
Tiago Splitter
Brazil Vitals: Forward/Center, 7-0, 240, 20 years old
The skinny: Placing Splitter isn't easy. After a solid season for Euroleague power Tau Ceramica and a terrific performance for the Brazilian national team, his stock is on the rise. He's big, tough, experienced and is excellent on the defensive end. His offensive potential is still largely untapped, partly because of his role on Tau. Two big question marks for Splitter: Will he be able to get out of that atrocious buyout with Tau? The Spurs have been unsuccessful working out a buyout for teammate Luis Scola, therefore it's an issue. Second, with talented veteran big men like Scola and Peja Drobnjak on the roster, will Splitter get the playing time he needs to prove to scouts that he's ready for the NBA?
Ronnie Brewer
Arkansas Vitals: Guard, 6-7, 200, Junior
The skinny: Brewer is drawing some Joe Johnson comparisons from scouts right now, which is a good thing. He's a big, athletic guard who has the ball-handling skills and court vision to make the transition to the point, at least part-time, in the NBA. Unlike Johnson, however, Brewer's outside jumper needs a lot of work. He improved his 3-point shooting percentage to a respectable 39 percent last season, but he's still got a ways to go.
Adam Morrison
Gonzaga Vitals: Small Forward, 6-8, 200, Junior
The skinny: Morrison is one of the toughest guys in the draft to rank right now. A small handful of scouts have him ranked in the top five. Others have him in the teens or early 20s. The scouts that have him ranked high emphasis his toughness, midrange shooting ability, versatility, basketball IQ and killer competitive instinct. Those still wringing their hands point to his average (at best) athleticism, so-so defense, poor 3-point shooting (31 percent last season) and his diabetes.
Al Horford
Florida Vitals: Power Forward, 6-9, 235, Soph.
The skinny: Ranking Horford this high is obviously a bit of stretch. He's completely unproven. But scouts love his body, size and athleticism and saw just enough promise from him toward the end of last season to justify putting him here. There just aren't many athletic, pure power forwards available in the draft. If Horford has a good season, the top 10 is a real possibility. If he has a breakout season, he'll be in the top five.
Malik Hairston
Oregon Vitals: Guard/Forward, 6-6, 200, Soph.
The skinny: There were a number of players we could've put here, including Duke's Shelden Williams, UConn's Josh Boone, Spain's Sergio Rodriguez, etc. However, Hairston gets the nod here because of his upside. We've heard everything from Quentin Richardson to Caron Butler comparisons. If either are close, he'll warrant a selection on draft night this high.
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
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9/23/2005 5:20 PM
