[ IMAGES: Images ON turn off | ACCOUNT: User Status is LOCKED why? ]

Some analysis on Walker and Sweetney
Author Thread
roblackman
Posts: 20396
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 6/27/2005
Member: #926
7/20/2005  3:59 PM
Another stat you need is the health of the player during the game--were they playing hurt with an injury, were they sick? You get the picture, there are an abundance of factors which aren't measured..
And the reply is...a post that makes sense (still waiting)
AUTOADVERT
Mac
Posts: 20767
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 10/8/2003
Member: #470
Japan
7/20/2005  4:01 PM
Tom, great post.
Marv
Posts: 35511
Alba Posts: 69
Joined: 9/2/2002
Member: #315
7/20/2005  4:03 PM
Posted by EnySpree:


Free throws aside.....the dude is a clutch player.

What about his getting just devoured by KMart 2 years in a row in the playoffs? To the point where it was downright embarrassing.

Btw i liked your "Whatever."
tkf
Posts: 36487
Alba Posts: 6
Joined: 8/13/2001
Member: #87
7/20/2005  4:21 PM
nice research tom..
Anyone who sits around and waits for the lottery to better themselves, either in real life or in sports, Is a Loser............... TKF
tomverve
Posts: 21407
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 3/4/2005
Member: #878
7/20/2005  4:37 PM
Posted by roblackman:

One thing your study never considered is the players guarding Toine and Sweets--how many double teams did Toine command and did the other team put their best defender on him? That's just one example of how stats don't tell the whole story.


That's true, it's difficult to quantify team defense and defense in general is hard to study statistically on an individual level.

However, we can look at the various possiblities you come up and still find Walker lacking.

case 1: Walker was not double teamed significantly more often than Sweetney.

In this case, Sweetney comes out looking better pretty straightforwardly.

case 2: Walker was double teamed significantly more than Sweetney.

In this case, straight comparisons between Sweets and Walker are muddier. It's worth mentioning, though, that even if Sweets did not draw a ton of double teams last season, it was because he often had the opposing team's center guarding him. Walker (to his credit) will never get checked by a center because he's too quick and has too much of a handle for the big guys. But if Sweets can put up such a great inside eFG% while being so thoroughly mismatched, he comes out looking pretty nice anyway.

Abandoning the comparisons to Sweets for the moment, Walker still comes up looking bad compared to other teams' high volume, go-to post up guys (see the list of inside eFG%s in the original post). It's a safe assumption that all of those guys-- Brand, Gasol, etc.-- get double teamed at least as much as, if not more than, Walker. And yet their inside eFG%s are much better. By comparison, Walker is a very poor efficiency player for a go-to guy in the post, even if he does get doubled.
Another stat you need is how each player played during critical moments of games--did the points come in garbage time or did they come at crucial moments?


Fair point. Here are Walker's and Sweetney's scoring efficiencies in clutch play-- defined as "4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points" by 82games.com.

Walker in the clutch (23 games w/ Hawks):
inside eFG%: .364 (26% of attempted FGs)
jumper eFG%: .333 (77% of attempted FGs)

Walker in the clutch (14 games w/ Celts):
inside eFG%: .647 (40% of attempted FGs)
jumper eFG%: .212 (60% of attempted FGs)

Sweetney in the clutch (19 games w/ Knicks):
inside eFG%: .667 (86% of attempted FGs)
jumper eFG%: 1.000 (29% of attempted FGs)

These stats need to be taken with a grain of salt, because the sample sizes are likely relatively small in all cases. (82games.com unfortunately doesn't include minutes per game the player logged in clutch situations.) Also, it's common for eFG% numbers to take big dips in clutch situations where the defense tightens up, so that needs to be taken into account.

Still, it's not looking very good for Walker. In the clutch, he attempted the vast majority of his shots on jumpers, on which he shot truly poor eFG%s. (.333 actually isn't that bad for clutch jump shooting, relatively speaking, but .212 is unacceptable.) His inside eFG% with the Celts is the lone bright spot. However, Sweetney's inside eFG% in the clutch is even better, and more importantly, he took a whopping 86% of his shots in the clutch close to the rim. So Sweets knows to take the high percentage shots where Walker apparently doesn't.
Another stat you need is the health of the player during the game--were they playing hurt with an injury, were they sick?


This objection doesn't really seem pertinent. Walker and Sweetney both enjoyed healthy 04/05 seasons; both played 77 out of 82 games. If there were minor bruises and aches here and there, such factors are probably of low impact and probably get averaged away over the course of 77 games anyway.

[Edited by - tomverve on 07/20/2005 16:40:14]
help treat disease with your spare computing power : http://www.worldcommunitygrid.org/
JUNKMEIN
Posts: 20401
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 11/14/2004
Member: #797
7/20/2005  4:39 PM
Posted by tkf:

nice research tom..

I agree. Great write up and very informative Verve. You know, I find that a lot of the young students I teach tend to not have much endurance when it comes to reading documents that require one to utilize analytical thinking. When called on for a response they are unfortunately only able to come up with sample responses...i.e. uhh, "or whatever"...."uhh, you know what i'm saying"...."why don't you just break it down" ......(or even worse) "Mister, why you making thing so complicated . Even worse you can just get a blank stare.

I actually post here because the posters here seem to deal with their responses in a mature way. It's not nearly as off the cuff as Realgm or the old NYKbasketball forum. I like the NYT forum but I find the formatting for this much easier on the eyes (great job again Martin and Andrew). I mean eventhough a few here may take issue with Isles' positions on Isiah (notice I didn't say the Knicks ) he has been consistent since day one. I can appreciate that because it takes a certain maturity level to remain consistent (although I fully agree with Monks position on his flip flop )

So, from one adult to another.....keep the long articles coming. Keep'em coming.

P.S. If any of my fellow posters find this post to be too long...I apologize in advance...or whatever
Pharzeone
Posts: 32183
Alba Posts: 14
Joined: 2/11/2005
Member: #871
7/20/2005  5:12 PM
Posted by Marv:
Posted by EnySpree:


Free throws aside.....the dude is a clutch player.

What about his getting just devoured by KMart 2 years in a row in the playoffs? To the point where it was downright embarrassing.

Btw i liked your "Whatever."
But the Knicks didn't face the Nets twice.
I don't like to play bad rookies , I like to play good rookies - Mike D'Antoni
EnySpree
Posts: 44917
Alba Posts: 138
Joined: 4/18/2003
Member: #397

7/20/2005  5:15 PM
Posted by Marv:
Posted by EnySpree:


Free throws aside.....the dude is a clutch player.

What about his getting just devoured by KMart 2 years in a row in the playoffs? To the point where it was downright embarrassing.

Btw i liked your "Whatever."

Tom did a good job on the research but all that still doesn't show anything but his shooting percentages.

I'm glad you like the "Whatever". I'd rather do that nowadays then go back and forth with a stats guy.

K-Mart really did give it to Walker but Boston is a different team than the one Walker would be on with the Knicks. I see Walker sliding back and forth at the 3-4 working mismatches.....Walker does so much on offense....The Knicks are very deep at the 4 and Ariza would still get most of the minutes at 3.

Only way I do it is if Timmy is involved. Also I must note that even though I like Walker....I'm won't be mad of we don't get him.
Subscribe to my Podcast https://youtube.com/c/DiehardknicksPodcast https://twitter.com/DiehardknicksPC?t=z5pqPMhdiAZNwzcCGMkiFw&s=09
Knicksfan
Posts: 32754
Alba Posts: 27
Joined: 7/5/2004
Member: #691
USA
7/20/2005  5:17 PM
Posted by roblackman:
Posted by Knicksfan:

I think its a given that knicks fans don't want Walker in any way possible...

Speak for yourself--I'll take him at the right price.

Well, the I speak for myself. We have enough PF to welcome Walker, even with a small contract, what is not happening...
Knicks_Fan
bernard
Posts: 20730
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 10/17/2003
Member: #475
7/20/2005  5:27 PM
Thanks for the analysis, Tom. And I'll counter what someone said. I read the whole thing and would've read more if you had it. Research and stats do matter.

It does confirm what, apparently, a lot of us already felt. That Walker's a bit of a chucker (I define that as someone who keeps hoisting even when he's not hitting -- if you're efficient enough, you can take lots of shots and be a "scorer" rather than a "chucker"), while Sweets plays within the team concept and within his abilities.

Also, think most of us would agree that Sweets' game is likely to get better over the next few years while Walker would be lucky not to drop off.
Bonn1997
Posts: 58654
Alba Posts: 2
Joined: 2/2/2004
Member: #581
USA
7/20/2005  6:51 PM
We already know Walker's not efficient. The issue is whether he can change. I'd be intereste in how his stats were when he helped the Celtics reach the conference finals. Also, if you're going to compare shots in the paint, you have to consider that Sweetney had a much better playmaker setting him up (Marbury) than Walker had (an aging Payton in Boston and I can't even remember who he had in Atlanta).
Marv
Posts: 35511
Alba Posts: 69
Joined: 9/2/2002
Member: #315
7/20/2005  7:00 PM
Stats are good.

Vibes are good too. SOmetimes they're called intangibles. Sometimes they're called leadership qualities, heart, on-court presence, body language. Decision-making, court smarts, basketball IQ.

They're both valuable and complimentary parts of evaluating players.

To me, a guy like Walker is downgraded because of the vibes or intangibles. To me they detract a lot from his game and make me not want him on the Knicks.

Can't always measure it in numbers, but doesn't mean it's not there.
TheSage
Posts: 21039
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 2/20/2003
Member: #386
7/20/2005  7:34 PM
Good post Tom-you've proved your point. roblackman? playa???????
fishmike
Posts: 51794
Alba Posts: 1
Joined: 7/19/2002
Member: #298
USA
7/20/2005  7:51 PM
Posted by roblackman:

I don't care enough to read this long ass post...

Yes, I know that's rude but I know many people on message boards just skip over long posts...

[Edited by - roblackman on 07/20/2005 13:48:57]
very classy...

Good post Tom, thanks for the real research you put into it. I actually think Walker is a little over maligned. He got good skills and be a legit playmaker. His 8+ boards a game arent something to right off. His defense is bad but he's not TT... he does work the glass and get to the line as well.

He's a hack and acts like such a dummy its hard to see past that. I dont see him as a good fit.
codeunknown
Posts: 22615
Alba Posts: 9
Joined: 7/14/2004
Member: #704
7/20/2005  9:01 PM
Its hard to present impact statistics for individuals in a team sport. Even though you can try to control for opponents, the influence of the quality of teammates and the role of the player in the system can't be controlled for well when determining a net appraisal of a player. In other words, every player has a set of values unique for every statistic (pts, reb) for every supporting group of players and every role/position that he is asked to play. And, if we had that kind of information, I would look mainly at +/- stats. Still, in that case, the player's substitute would skew that data.

I agree with you that shooting percentages are the best way to go if you must use stats. But, generally, people use stats to detect minor differences - and NBA team stats cannot do that precisely because of varying team models. I can only speak for myself but the data you presented basically confirms what is blatantly obvious. Walker is a poor shooter who likes to shoot a lot.

Because of the misleading nature of NBA stats, subjective talent evaluation is at a premium. It is also the reason why there are many blunders by front office officials every year. Unfortunately, there's no way around it.

[Edited by - codeunknown on 07/20/2005 21:20:36]
Sh-t in the popcorn to go with sh-t on the court. Its a theme show like Medieval times.
BRIGGS
Posts: 52908
Alba Posts: 7
Joined: 7/30/2002
Member: #303
7/20/2005  9:16 PM
we had a solid offseason. even if jerome james is a bust, i feel we are going in the right direction. fans need to be appeased immediately. basketball goes in cycles and its best right now if we build with youth and be patient. no some fools want to drive a train wreck through with A walker and mark blount for draft picks sweetney and ending contracts. why are we even having these converstaions. slow and steady progress--lets be patient and opportunistic.. just like larry brown--lets hire him but be oprudent, we dont need to tell everyone that we made larry brown the highest paid coach. pay him market value for 3 years and 7.5mm per makes him the 2nd highest paid coach--i think for a guy wearing diapers right now, thats reasonable.
RIP Crushalot😞
Bonn1997
Posts: 58654
Alba Posts: 2
Joined: 2/2/2004
Member: #581
USA
7/20/2005  10:25 PM
Posted by BRIGGS:

we had a solid offseason. even if jerome james is a bust, i feel we are going in the right direction. fans need to be appeased immediately. basketball goes in cycles and its best right now if we build with youth and be patient. no some fools want to drive a train wreck through with A walker and mark blount for draft picks sweetney and ending contracts. why are we even having these converstaions. slow and steady progress--lets be patient and opportunistic.. just like larry brown--lets hire him but be oprudent, we dont need to tell everyone that we made larry brown the highest paid coach. pay him market value for 3 years and 7.5mm per makes him the 2nd highest paid coach--i think for a guy wearing diapers right now, thats reasonable.
You keep repeating this but can you name ONE poster who wants to give up draft picks for Walker or wants to take back Blount's contract?
OldFan
Posts: 21451
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 7/24/2003
Member: #446
7/20/2005  11:24 PM
Posted by tomverve:
Posted by roblackman:

One thing your study never considered is the players guarding Toine and Sweets--how many double teams did Toine command and did the other team put their best defender on him? That's just one example of how stats don't tell the whole story.


That's true, it's difficult to quantify team defense and defense in general is hard to study statistically on an individual level.

However, we can look at the various possiblities you come up and still find Walker lacking.

case 1: Walker was not double teamed significantly more often than Sweetney.

In this case, Sweetney comes out looking better pretty straightforwardly.

case 2: Walker was double teamed significantly more than Sweetney.

In this case, straight comparisons between Sweets and Walker are muddier. It's worth mentioning, though, that even if Sweets did not draw a ton of double teams last season, it was because he often had the opposing team's center guarding him. Walker (to his credit) will never get checked by a center because he's too quick and has too much of a handle for the big guys. But if Sweets can put up such a great inside eFG% while being so thoroughly mismatched, he comes out looking pretty nice anyway.

Abandoning the comparisons to Sweets for the moment, Walker still comes up looking bad compared to other teams' high volume, go-to post up guys (see the list of inside eFG%s in the original post). It's a safe assumption that all of those guys-- Brand, Gasol, etc.-- get double teamed at least as much as, if not more than, Walker. And yet their inside eFG%s are much better. By comparison, Walker is a very poor efficiency player for a go-to guy in the post, even if he does get doubled.
Another stat you need is how each player played during critical moments of games--did the points come in garbage time or did they come at crucial moments?


Fair point. Here are Walker's and Sweetney's scoring efficiencies in clutch play-- defined as "4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points" by 82games.com.

Walker in the clutch (23 games w/ Hawks):
inside eFG%: .364 (26% of attempted FGs)
jumper eFG%: .333 (77% of attempted FGs)

Walker in the clutch (14 games w/ Celts):
inside eFG%: .647 (40% of attempted FGs)
jumper eFG%: .212 (60% of attempted FGs)

Sweetney in the clutch (19 games w/ Knicks):
inside eFG%: .667 (86% of attempted FGs)
jumper eFG%: 1.000 (29% of attempted FGs)

These stats need to be taken with a grain of salt, because the sample sizes are likely relatively small in all cases. (82games.com unfortunately doesn't include minutes per game the player logged in clutch situations.) Also, it's common for eFG% numbers to take big dips in clutch situations where the defense tightens up, so that needs to be taken into account.

Still, it's not looking very good for Walker. In the clutch, he attempted the vast majority of his shots on jumpers, on which he shot truly poor eFG%s. (.333 actually isn't that bad for clutch jump shooting, relatively speaking, but .212 is unacceptable.) His inside eFG% with the Celts is the lone bright spot. However, Sweetney's inside eFG% in the clutch is even better, and more importantly, he took a whopping 86% of his shots in the clutch close to the rim. So Sweets knows to take the high percentage shots where Walker apparently doesn't.
Another stat you need is the health of the player during the game--were they playing hurt with an injury, were they sick?


This objection doesn't really seem pertinent. Walker and Sweetney both enjoyed healthy 04/05 seasons; both played 77 out of 82 games. If there were minor bruises and aches here and there, such factors are probably of low impact and probably get averaged away over the course of 77 games anyway.

[Edited by - tomverve on 07/20/2005 16:40:14]

Tom - Thanks for the post. It's good to see an thought out analyses.

I would argue that Sweeney is much worse then his stats would indicate though. Bill James (baseball stats) will often evaluate players based on stats and how they were regarded by others. I think with Sweeney you have to consider why he couldn't get more minutes playing for a terrible team. And that bad teams rarely face the oppositions best defensed and thus stats are skewed - plus the amount of time he plays against second string players.

KnickerBlogger
Posts: 20058
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 11/5/2004
Member: #789
USA
7/21/2005  12:03 AM

Tom - Thanks for the post. It's good to see an thought out analyses.

I would argue that Sweeney is much worse then his stats would indicate though. Bill James (baseball stats) will often evaluate players based on stats and how they were regarded by others. I think with Sweeney you have to consider why he couldn't get more minutes playing for a terrible team. And that bad teams rarely face the oppositions best defensed and thus stats are skewed - plus the amount of time he plays against second string players.

I'll play both for & against on this one. One reason Sweetney did not get more time could be managerial incompetence. You see it all the time in all fields. From one side you can see it when a coach has Michael Redd or Jermaine O'Neal on the bench when their per minute stats show that they deserve more minutes. On the other side you can see it when guys like Howard Eisley and Shandon Anderson get huge contracts. Just like everyone else coaches & GMs are fallible. They have their own preconcieved notions of what is good & bad. For years baseball GMs didn't draft shorter pitchers. However the Houston Astros decided that this didn't matter & had a decent staff with guys all under 6'2: Billy Wagner, Wade Miller, Roy Oswalt & Tim Redding. I don't think I have to complete the analogy for reasons why Sweetney didn't get more deserved minutes.

On the other hand, there is one big knock on basketball stats. There is little accountability on defense which is clearly 1/2 of the game. Statistically Marbury is one of the best PGs in the league, but his defense is awful, which makes him less valuable than other PGs that can defend well. So maybe by statistics alone (which measure offensive contributions pretty well) Sweetney is a good player & deserves more minutes, but in reality his defense might be lacking & we'd have little statistical information to be able to know.

There you have it KB playing both sides of the coin. Although I don't think Sweetney's defense was bad, just had to present the possibility in relation to stats.

http://www.knickerblogger.net
KnickerBlogger
Posts: 20058
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 11/5/2004
Member: #789
USA
7/21/2005  12:05 AM
Oh and Tom - what an excellent post! I've read it like 3 times today on 3 different boards.
http://www.knickerblogger.net
Some analysis on Walker and Sweetney

©2001-2012 ultimateknicks.comm All rights reserved. About Us.
This site is not affiliated with the NY Knicks or the National Basketball Association in any way.
You may visit the official NY Knicks web site by clicking here.

All times (GMT-05:00) Eastern Time.

Terms of Use and Privacy Policy