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oohah
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7/14/2005  12:45 PM
That is laughable. No matter what your qualitative impressions are, the stats say otherwise. I'm going with the stats on this one.

What stats are you citing? Are you talking about the PER?

oohah



[Edited by - oohah on 07/14/2005 13:03:08]
Good luck Mike D'Antoni, 'cause you ain't never seen nothing like this before!
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oohah
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7/14/2005  1:02 PM
Posted by oohah:
That is laughable. No matter what your qualitative impressions are, the stats say otherwise. I'm going with the stats on this one.

What stats are you citing? Are you talking about the PER?

oohah
Good luck Mike D'Antoni, 'cause you ain't never seen nothing like this before!
tomverve
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7/14/2005  1:21 PM
Yes, basically, but we don't even need PER to discern that that claim is nonsense. It's highly unlikely that adding Walker for nothing would add 8 wins to this team-- do you really think Walker is the difference between a 38 win team and a 46 win team, or a 42 win team and a 50 win team, or whatever? He certainly didn't do jack squat for Atlanta's record, and Atlanta was a team that stood to benefit from Walker's type of game much more than NY because they didn't have any other players who could be counted on to direct and carry an offense. NY already has its fair share of playmakers and scorers, meaning Walker would be significantly less valuable for us than he was for the Hawks.

I don't think one can make a good case that Walker is a better player to have than Swift, but at least I can see how it might be plausible at first glance. But saying Walker is 8-10 wins better is just ridiculous and indefensible claim.

You don't seem to appreciate that Walker brings a boatload of negatives along with the positives he brings, and that he's not even the player he was several years ago. You have to weigh the things he does that hurt a team against the things he does to help. PER takes those things into account-- it's not that this measure underestimates Walker's benefits, but that it recognizes how much of those benefits are mitigated by all the bad things Walker does on the court-- missed shots, missed free throws, turnovers, etc. And what PER doesn't capture well is defense, where I hope it's obvious that Swift is clearly a superior talent than Walker.
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bobs3304
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7/14/2005  1:23 PM
Personally, I'm not content with either.


I'd rather bide our time and go after a legit PF/C, someone that can spot at both positions and man the paint for us.
DLee is the best thing to happen to NY in Isiah's 4 year tenure. And that alone, though a positive on the radar, is sad as hell.
oohah
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7/14/2005  2:42 PM
Walker beats Swift statisically no matter how you slice it. PER or normal stats. He also beats Swift in regular season team wins, playoff wins, playoff peformance, and has gone deeper into the playoffs. Percentage or total, take your pick.

The PER is a bogus statistic if you are using it to definitively decide who is better player. It is based on a 48 minutes per game average which is its first mistake. All of a sudden you see role players peppered in with the top 50 players in the league. Certain players are played less time and in specific situations because of their limitations which would be severely exposed with starter minutes.

We also have to assume that the creator of the formula has truly weighted all variables properly and considered all necessary variables, leaving nothing out nor including anything extra.

Then we have to assume that "all stats are created equal". For instance

2004-2005 top 50 Per
18.82 okur, mehmet uta 12.5 7.2 1.9 .469
18.75 kidd, jason njn 13.7 7.1 8.0 .392

Somehow Mehmet Okur comes out ahead of Jason Kidd. Forget Swift, let's get Okur!

Now let's compare Antoine Walker and Stromile Swift using the PER:

Swift if divided by 3 = 16.540 Career PER. If divided by 4 as it should be: 12.405

Walker if divided by 8 seasons: 16.816

Neither player's PER is available for 2004-2005 yet because neither made the top 50.

1996-1997
Swift Not in NBA
15.40 Walker, Antoine bos 17.5 9.0 3.2 42.6
Notes: Walker barely edges out the incredibly efficient Pete Chillcut:
15.34 Chilcutt, Pete van 3.4 2.9 0.9 43.6

1997-1998
Swift Not in NBA
18.18 Walker, Antoine bos 22.4 10.2 3.3 42.6

1998-1999
Swift Not in NBA
16.79 Walker, Antoine bos 18.7 8.5 3.1 41.2

1999-2000
Swift Not in NBA
17.55 Walker, Antoine bos 20.5 8.0 3.7 43.0

2000-2001
13.24 Swift, Stromile van 4.9 3.6 0.4 45.1
19.30 Walker, Antoine bos 23.4 8.9 5.5 41.3

2001-2002
17.20 Swift, Stromile Mem 11.8 6.3 0.7 48.0
17.07 Walker, Antoine Bos 22.1 8.8 5.0 39.4

2002-2003
Swift doesn't make top fifty power forwards PER ranking.
14.49 Walker, Antoine Bos 20.1 7.2 4.8 38.8

2003-2004
19.18 Swift, Stromile Mem 9.4 4.9 0.5 46.9
15.75 Walker, Antoine Dal 14.0 8.3 4.5 .428

Should we go into games won, games won in the playoffs, regular season averages, playoff averages? Make your case for Swift as better player if you can!

oohah



[Edited by - oohah on 07/14/2005 14:45:23]
Good luck Mike D'Antoni, 'cause you ain't never seen nothing like this before!
diderotn
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7/14/2005  2:45 PM
I would love Swift in a knicks unis, but as a PF. I know that he can block shots, but as a PF. I really don't care, I just want the kid on the court, because he is an amazing leaper.

Dido, isn't your dream starting lineup with Frye at PF and James at C? Then who do you have at backup C? These two guys haven't convinced me that they can keep themselves in the game long enough to feel concerned about our center position. My only comment was that Swift could play some backup C when need be. He is a PF, but he does have that option.

I still want to avoid Walker at all costs. I really don't want another guy who will lounge around the perimeter and play nonexistant defense. I will say one thing for the guy, he's a triple double threat every single night: Points, rebounds, and turnovers.
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rvhoss
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7/14/2005  2:54 PM
Posted by tomverve:

Yes, basically, but we don't even need PER to discern that that claim is nonsense. It's highly unlikely that adding Walker for nothing would add 8 wins to this team-- do you really think Walker is the difference between a 38 win team and a 46 win team, or a 42 win team and a 50 win team, or whatever?

It worked for the celtics.
all kool aid all the time.
rvhoss
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7/14/2005  3:00 PM
I hate to say it...but I'm sold...swift had one good PER year and that basically coincided with his contract year.

Walker has consistently been on a winning team (with the exception of atlanta) and even there he put up good numbers...

He sucks from the free throw line, but he has swagger and isn't afraid to take the team on his back.

Oohah...welcome to UK, not only are you funny, but you make a heck of an argument.

When he joined the celtics, they went for suckas to division winners.

Just by him JOINING THE TEAM. they gave up nothing for him.

Heaven forbid we dump one of our PFs (at this point, any one will do) and we give up an expiring deal and we land Walker.

I wasn't sold before, but I'm sold...what's his career rebounding number again? 9 BOARDS? you can't really ignore that stat.

And now we have frye and james for shot blocking, so at this point, swift brings us nothing that we don't already have...OH, he also wants more than $5 mill a year.

Can't wait to see the poll on that.
Posted by oohah:

Walker beats Swift statisically no matter how you slice it. PER or normal stats. He also beats Swift in regular season team wins, playoff wins, playoff peformance, and has gone deeper into the playoffs. Percentage or total, take your pick.

The PER is a bogus statistic if you are using it to definitively decide who is better player. It is based on a 48 minutes per game average which is its first mistake. All of a sudden you see role players peppered in with the top 50 players in the league. Certain players are played less time and in specific situations because of their limitations which would be severely exposed with starter minutes.

We also have to assume that the creator of the formula has truly weighted all variables properly and considered all necessary variables, leaving nothing out nor including anything extra.

Then we have to assume that "all stats are created equal". For instance

2004-2005 top 50 Per
18.82 okur, mehmet uta 12.5 7.2 1.9 .469
18.75 kidd, jason njn 13.7 7.1 8.0 .392

Somehow Mehmet Okur comes out ahead of Jason Kidd. Forget Swift, let's get Okur!

Now let's compare Antoine Walker and Stromile Swift using the PER:

Swift if divided by 3 = 16.540 Career PER. If divided by 4 as it should be: 12.405

Walker if divided by 8 seasons: 16.816

Neither player's PER is available for 2004-2005 yet because neither made the top 50.

1996-1997
Swift Not in NBA
15.40 Walker, Antoine bos 17.5 9.0 3.2 42.6
Notes: Walker barely edges out the incredibly efficient Pete Chillcut:
15.34 Chilcutt, Pete van 3.4 2.9 0.9 43.6

1997-1998
Swift Not in NBA
18.18 Walker, Antoine bos 22.4 10.2 3.3 42.6

1998-1999
Swift Not in NBA
16.79 Walker, Antoine bos 18.7 8.5 3.1 41.2

1999-2000
Swift Not in NBA
17.55 Walker, Antoine bos 20.5 8.0 3.7 43.0

2000-2001
13.24 Swift, Stromile van 4.9 3.6 0.4 45.1
19.30 Walker, Antoine bos 23.4 8.9 5.5 41.3

2001-2002
17.20 Swift, Stromile Mem 11.8 6.3 0.7 48.0
17.07 Walker, Antoine Bos 22.1 8.8 5.0 39.4

2002-2003
Swift doesn't make top fifty power forwards PER ranking.
14.49 Walker, Antoine Bos 20.1 7.2 4.8 38.8

2003-2004
19.18 Swift, Stromile Mem 9.4 4.9 0.5 46.9
15.75 Walker, Antoine Dal 14.0 8.3 4.5 .428

Should we go into games won, games won in the playoffs, regular season averages, playoff averages? Make your case for Swift as better player if you can!

oohah



[Edited by - oohah on 07/14/2005 14:45:23]
all kool aid all the time.
oohah
Posts: 26600
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Joined: 4/7/2005
Member: #887
7/14/2005  3:06 PM
I hate to say it...but I'm sold...swift had one good PER year and that basically coincided with his contract year.

I hope you are Isiah Thomas!
When he joined the celtics, they went for suckas to division winners.

Gonsarnit! I had that one holstered for my next response.
Oohah...welcome to UK, not only are you funny, but you make a heck of an argument.

Thanx!

oohah

Good luck Mike D'Antoni, 'cause you ain't never seen nothing like this before!
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