Posted by TMS:

Posted by Bonn1997:

Only because I love ya TMS did I bother to do this: I looked up all rookies with at least 70 IP and an ERA in the low 3s (or lower) between 2000 and 2003. Here's what I found

2000: Matt Herges, 3.17 ERA (career 3.94)
Chuck Smith, 3.23 ERA (career finished after second season. Never pitched again)
2001: Roy Oswalt, 2.73 (career outstanding; 3.13 ERA)
2002: Mark Prior, 3.32 (career finished four years later)
2003: Oscar Villarreal, 2.57 (career 3.86 with a range of 3.61 to 7.00)
Brandon Webb, 2.84 (excellent career, 3.24 ERA)
Luis Ayala, 2.92 (career 3.44 and over 5 this year)
Jerome Williams, 3.30 (career 4.25 and basically finished after 2005)
Dontrelle Willis, 3.30 (career 3.91 and basically finished 3 years later)

So a few observations:

(a) In only 2 of these 9 examples could you justify not trading the player for someone at Peavy's level. Even in those two, it would hardly have been a huge loss (if indeed a loss at all) to have made the trade.
(b) Even in the success stories, the ERA usually goes up about 0.50 after the rookie year. This makes sense if you understand the statistical concept of regression to the mean.
(c) Bonn knows what he's talking about even when he doesn't have time to look up examples.

without even having to bother looking up stats i can easily counter with names like Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens, Doc Gooden, Pedro Martinez & just to make u feel better i'll even include Moose's name in there even tho he never won a Cy Young... all of these guys had very good numbers when they broke into the majors just like Joba did... still not sure where u draw ur ideas from sometimes.

The lesson from the data above is that among guys who look unhittable after about 100 career innings, for every one Curt Schilling there are about four Chuck Smiths.

[Edited by - bonn1997 on 10-08-2008 07:09 AM]

Posted by nyk4ever:

Posted by TMS:

Posted by Bonn1997:

I do agree that the Red Sox and Rays have been a much smarter run organization over the past several years.

finishing in last place almost every year w/30,000 empty seats in the stadium every night except for when the Yankees come to town makes them a well run organization in your eyes?

The Rays have had it tough playing in the AL East, where they have to play the Yankees and Sox a combined 38 times. Since the new owner has taken over they have made very smart moves though. Singing Longoria longterm was a great move, the Carlos Pena pickup was great, Eric Hinske signing, trading away Delmon Young last year took a ton of balls and the 2 guys they got are extremely important to that team (Garza, Bartlett.) The Rays know what they are doing right now.

couldn't have said it better myself. The Rays have had it tough--no doubt. Also, no other GM would say Cashman with his $200 mil annual budget has had it tough. Gosh I hope we're not battling the Jays for third vs fourth place every year.

Posted by Bonn1997:

Posted by nyk4ever:

Posted by Bonn1997:

Compensation picks:
Won't we be getting them for Giambi, Pavano, Irod, and Abreu (if he's not re-signed). That's a lot. Can't we afford to give some away then if we're bringing in young star FAs? I don't know a lot about the compensation picks. I'm sure you know more than I do.

Bonn, in Major-League baseball, Free-Agents are split into 3 groups:
Type A Free-Agents (must be in the top 20% of their position
Type B Free-Agents(must be in the 21-40% of their position
Unclassified (everyone else)

When a team signs a Type A FA the team that signs a Type A player must give its top draft pick to the team that is losing the player. The team that lost the player receives a supplemental pick between the first and second rounds. However, if the signing team has a draft pick in the first half of the first round (picks 1-15), their first round pick is protected and would then surrender their next highest draft pick.

When a team signs a Type B FA the team that loses a Type B players receives a supplemental pick, but the signing team does not lose any picks and the picks are at the end of the draft.

Unclassified, is nothing.

I think it's safe to say that none of the players that we are losing will be Type A players, I think only Abreu has a CHANCE to be type A. Abreu, Giambi and IRod are all Type B FA's for sure though, but we won't get the signing teams pick 1st round pick, just an extra pick at the draft.

Signing guys like CC and Tex are surely 1st round picks that will be lost and with the dearth we have in the minor-league system, I don't think we can risk this anymore. Tex is a good player, but I really don't see him leading us to a World Series which is what you should be getting from a guy you're going to pay as much as we are going to pay Tex. It's team we build this thing through the draft or make good trades. We need to conserve our draft picks and get as many of them as possible.

Thanks; that helps. There's no chance Giambi with 30/100 will be a class A FA? Who determines the classes? I'd still be willing to give up 1st rd picks to get YOUNG star FAs--just not old ones. I mean, the goal of the 1st rd draft pick is to get very good young players, and you'd be getting that with Tex or CC signings.


[Edited by - bonn1997 on 10-07-2008 7:31 PM]

Elias determines who is in what class and they have a way of computing it. They group the players together according to multiple positions. Instead of me blathering on, I'm sure you'd probably like as much info as possible, take a look at that website, it should explain the system for you. When I was interested in this stuff and how it was determined a few years ago, I found a great site that explained everything great. http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2008/07/almost-how-elias-sports-bureau-rankings.html If you're still confused, I can answer any question you have.

As of now, I believe Abreu did just enough to get to Type A, but Giambi is literally the LAST Type B free-agent according to the scores. The guy who runs that same site that I just showed you also ranks the players himself according to Elias numbers. http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2008/08/projected-elias-rankings.html

as of Sept 14
Abreu Type A
Giambi type B (literally the last type B player in his grouping)
Irod type B
Pavano - none.

So it looks like we'll get someones 1st rounder, unless Abreu signs with a team who has a draftpick in the top15, if that's the case we'll get the teams next highest pick. For anyone else, we'll just get picks at the end of the draft, which is nice don't get me wrong, but nothing to great. We need to stockpile these #1's like the Red Sox did with guys like Pedro, Lowe, etc etc etc.

[Edited by - nyk4ever on 10-07-2008 7:55 PM]

i still think we shoulda got Jason Bay instead of Xavier Nady... the guy's coming through big time for BOS right now.

w/o a doubt, he's been the better player throughout his career... we gave up 1 of our top prospects i wish we'd have gotten the better player in Bay... water under the bridge now & i do like Nady but it sucks to watch this guy hitting in the clutch for BOS in the playoffs & our own team playing golf right about now.

I'm definitely warming up to your idea (I think it was yours) of getting K Griffey Jr for CF. Gardner could give him a day off every once in a while. Are the new Yankee Stadium dimensions the same as the old one? If so, a power-hitting lefty like K G Jr might really benefit. And I assume we wouldn't have to give up any compensation picks if we signed him because he had a mediocre season.

[Edited by - bonn1997 on 10-12-2008 08:05 AM]

Posted by Bonn1997:

I'm definitely warming up to your idea (I think it was yours) of getting K Griffey Jr for CF. Gardner could give him a day off every once in a while. Are the new Yankee Stadium dimensions the same as the old one? If so, a power-hitting lefty like K G Jr might really benefit. And I assume we wouldn't have to give up any compensation picks if we signed him because he had a mediocre season.

[Edited by - bonn1997 on 10-12-2008 08:05 AM]

after watching him this year w/CHI i think he can still play a little CF & he's still got a dangerous bat... he should be even better hitting in lefty friendly YS (yes, the dimensions are exactly the same)... i don't think we'd have to give up any 1st rounders for him if we end up signing him either... like i said i don't think he's the ideal option but i seriously don't wanna see Johnny Damon starting in CF for us next season... he belongs either in LF or as a DH... i'd rather see Junior or even Brett Gardner starting in CF (as long as we can stock up on offense in other areas)

Posted by BigSm00th:

we gotta get younger TMS, how is signing a 40?YO ken griffey jr going to facilitate that?

yeah I realize that, but anyway like I said it's not the ideal option... plus he's only 1 player & old as he is he does represent an upgrade in CF over what we currently have... i can easily see him hitting 30+ HR's in YS next season, & he & ARod have been teammates before so maybe it'll help him relax a little as well... i dunno, just throwing out some ideas... the market for CFers is pretty barren these days.

Posted by TMS:

Posted by Bonn1997:

The Manny for Bay trade will go down as a very intelligent one for Boston. When Manny's retired, Bay's still gonna be a very good player.

i killed them for making that deal but i guess under the circumstances they couldn't have done much better... turns out to be looking really good for both teams as it turns out.

Boston appeared to be trading from a position of considerable weakness, as everyone knew Manny had to go. But they someone still managed to get a great and much younger player in the deal.