Posted by Finestrg:

Posted by TMS:

Posted by Bonn1997:

Posted by Finestrg:

Posted by Bonn1997:

Posted by Finestrg:

Posted by TMS:

not quite the same. Beltran switched teams/markets. It's a big difference going from Houston or KC to New York. It was a period of adjustment. Is Cano going through a period of adjustment? And Beltran got paid solely on what he proved in the playoffs, Cano hasn't done much in the playoffs.

i was talking about his 3rd year in the majors in KC where he had a severe dropoff from his 2nd year stats... what's the market he played in got to do w/this anyway? Robbie's been playing in NY since he came up, does that mean his stats mean more than any other young player coming up someplace else?... if u thought Robbie Cano was gonna hit .340 every year just cuz he did it once, u're kidding urself... that goes for every young player out there, including Billingsley... these kids are gonna have their ups & downs but overall i would say Cano's value is still high even w/the year he just had... what on Earth are you talking about we can only get "unproven" prospects for him? u telling me Robbie Cano's an unproven player at this point you gotta be kiddin me... even if we were to talk about trades for proven major league Allstar calibre talent at this point in a trade names like Robbie Cano wouldn't be out of the question to be talked about from the Yankees' side... u say nothing prospects like Lastings Milledge will be good hitters but consider Cano to be an unproven? that's pretty damn funny... btw, the guy's 25 years old... let's not make him out to be some 10 year vet, ok? even vets have off years.

[Edited by - TMS on 09-19-2008 9:11 PM]

Yeah agreed. This is a guy (Cano) who hits 3rd on most teams. Even after the sub-par year (which isn't terrible by the way. Will wind up hitting .265-.270 w/ 14-16 HRs & above average defense. It's not like he hit .220 this year or something. And I like the Beltran comparison a lot. Not only his 3rd season - which appeared to be marred by injuries - how 'bout Carlos' 2005 year, his first with the Mets: 151 games, .266, 16 HRs. Like Cano, not terrible, but not great either). Robbie will bounce back - he's too good a hitter. He might even hit 3 for us next year depending on who walks and who we bring in. I brought up trading Robbie because I feel we might have to explore this if free agency doesn't go as we planned. Strengthening the lineup is important (I think getting Texieria is just as important as getting CC Sabathia) but adding more pitching is the key if you ask me. I want to be able to match up against better pitching in the league on a daily basis from the middle of our rotation through the 5th starter, much better than we did this year. You're basically conceding games with guys like Sidney Ponson, Darrell Rasner and whoever else against the better clubs. Forget matching up against Josh Beckett for a sec. (which guys like Wang and Chamberlain certainly can do btw), I want to be able to go into Boston and beat Dice-K or Jon Lester 2-1, 3-2 next year without worrying that we've basically lost the matchup before the game even begins. Even Toronto has better pitching than us 1 through 5. A lot of teams do.

Keys to the off-season: Important to add CC, Mark Tex. and a secondary pitcher or two, either through FA or via trade. An additional right-handed power bat to balance the lineup a little better would be nice too. And I like the idea of adding FA Juan Cruz and his power arm to the bullpen. You do that and you don't have to worry as much that you switched Joba back into the rotation. I realize this is easier said than done but if they want to get back on the ball and start winning 95-100 ballgames again, this is what they have to do.


[Edited by - finestrg on 09-20-2008 05:25 AM]

A sub .700 OPS is terrible. It ranks you as low as probably around a .220 average (only OPS is a much more important statistic).

Well I don't know what to tell ya my friend. We can compare and contrast and argue statistics all day long. Bottom line for me is, like most young players, Cano's obviously got some things to work on (take the walk, consistent effort & hustle, etc.), but to insinuate that he's not an effective offensive player (even this year which, statistically, was an off-year for him by a good margin) is really rediculous. When he's right, he's ripping line-drives all over the ballpark. The guy has tremendous value either to the Yankees staying in pinstripes or to other clubs that probably come calling this off-season. For example, we know Minnesota liked him and I bet we could've grabbed Johan for Cano and Kennedy (or even a lesser pitching prospect) and had called it a day. No Melky. No Hughes. Maybe even no Kennedy. If I'm not mistaken, that was one of the original Johan scenarios that was shot down by the Yankees almost immediately. Think for a sec. -- can you imagine Cano hitting on turf in a place like the Metrodome - what kind of numbers he could put up there? I would think .290/45 doubles would be a down year for him over there in that place, no?

This year Cano was 132 out of 148 qualified MLB players in OPS. That basically means he was one of the least productive everyday players on offense in the game. That means he was definitely a liability. I'm not saying give up on him, but I think people who look at BA miss just how bad a year he had. That's mostly the media outlets' fault for obsessing over BA. Please don't remind me about how easily we could have gotten Johan. That's not gonna cheer me up after the season we all had to endure!

[Edited by - bonn1997 on 09-21-2008 07:21 AM]

Bonn, not sure what u're trying to argue here... if u're trying to tell us how bad a season he had this year, i don't think anyone would argue w/u on that one... the question is if Cano still has value as a top young ML baseball player or not... my argument is he still has plenty of value & the Yankees would still probably be extremely hesitant to trade him away at all, & if they do it would have to be for premium value... if u don't believe that to be the case based on 1 bad season, considering how much of a fan for statistics & as much of an opponent of small sample sizes that you are, i dunno what to tell ya.

btw, Jacoby Ellsbury's OPS this year is .699... how many people here think the Red Sox would be looking to trade him away for anything less than premium ML talent? yeah, i didn't think so... if anyone doesn't think kids like Cano & Ellsbury have high value they don't watch too much baseball if u ask me.

Yeah I don't know how much stock I'd put in OPS as a statistic. Not telling at all if you ask me, at least not in this case.

Like I said earlier, Robbie's had his problems this year (there was the perceived lack of hustle that was dealt with by Girardi the right way with the benching and the sit-down man to man recently) but, trust me, there's a reason why Cano's been a regular who plays almost everyday ever since his arrival a few seasons ago. He's well-regarded as one of the premier 2B talents in the game. How anyone can say otherwise with a straight face is really beyond me. Trust me, this off-season when the Yankees hold their internal meetings, this is how the discussion will go regarding Cano: "Hey, do we hit Robbie 3rd now because we didn't bring back Abreu?" or Cashman will come in one day and tell Hank & Hal, "look, I've got {fill in a young talented frontline pitcher} on the table for Robbie. Do I pull the trigger?" Never once will the conversation waver toward Cano being a reserve or not making the team. Those are thoughts that might surface when Melky Cabrera's name comes up in conversation, not Robbie's...

And Bonn, I wasn't trying to tell you Robbie had a good year by any stretch of the imagination - though it wasn't terrible - I told you, .265/30+ 2Bs/14, 15, HRs hitting 7th or 8th all year isn't terrible. That's what I said. "Not terrible." We all know he had a down year. He'd be the first one to tell you. But you come on here out of nowhere and try to tell us the guy's worthless. Come on now dog. That's rubbish.....


[Edited by - finestrg on 09-21-2008 10:29 AM]

The other possibility is that OPS is useful and your subjective impression is wrong. In Money Ball, the A's talk about how they built such good teams at low prices because they relied solely on OPS (especially on base percentage). Then all the other teams eventually caught on. There's no theoretical advantage to using batting average over on base or slugging percentage (or the composite OPS) either. BA ignores too many important aspects of offense. I don't know why every once in a while I feel compelled to try to inform people about whether they're looking at good stats or only the simplest stats, which are usually the ones shown on TV. But for some reason I do.

Oh and I never said he was worthless, as TMS pointed out. I've said many times that I would trade him for an ace or #2 but not a #3 starting pitcher. #3 starting pitchers are definitely important pitchers. So that should tell you I don't think he's worthless. I also didn't come out of nowhere. TMS and I have been discussing Cano for several pages. I think you came out of nowhere and missed or forgot most of the discussion.

[Edited by - bonn1997 on 09-21-2008 11:49 AM]

Posted by TMS:

In Money Ball, the A's talk about how they built such good teams at low prices because they relied solely on OPS (especially on base percentage). Then all the other teams eventually caught on. There's no theoretical advantage to using batting average over on base or slugging percentage (or the composite OPS) either.

taking a quick look at his numbers, it seems like Cano's OPS really suffered this season whenever there were men on base (.596 w/ROB as opposed to .780 w/o)... he needs to make a concerted effort next season to work at bats more deeper into the count & not just swing at the first pitch he's offered when guys are in scoring position, which he did a horrible job of this season... how many times did we see him swing into an easy popup or an easy hopper to an IFer on 1st & 2nd pitch ABs this year? working a few walks wouldn't hurt his numbers obviously... whether that's his fault or Kevin Long's bad for telling him to swing early in the count is anyone's guess... that's a problem that must get corrected, but the kid has so much talent & such a beautiful swing i have no worries at all that he's gonna bounce back & have a very good season next year.

I'm not a big fan of splitting one season into subgroups of small samples to look for hitter difficulties (maybe with the exception of qualities of the pitcher like lefty vs. righty). I defend A-Rod whenever people do that with him. With Cano, the problem is mostly that he has a poor eye at the plate and has made no progress in that area in his four years in the MLB. A distant secondary problem is that he has somewhat below average power but he could still be a perrenial all-star if he learned plate discipline. That is one of the hardest things to learn and making significant improvements in that area is very uncommon. If he's willing to work rigorously on it, he might be able to improve (or might not). Right now, pitchers know that all they have to do is put the ball 2 feet out of the strike zone every time. I do agree that he has a very nice swing and makes very solid contact when he reads pitches correctly. If he doesn't improve his eye at the plate, though, he's just gonna be a #7 hitter with an OPS in the 700s IMO.

With Cano, I don't know if it is the case that his poor eye at the plate didn't matter when he had better #s or if it's the case that pitchers have gradually learned how to pitch to him. (That is, throw it 2 feet off the plate.) Or if it's the case that he slacked off once he got his contract last off-season.

I'm not disagreeing with the general concept that situational hitting matters. I'm just disagreeing with the idea that you could ever get a reasonably large and reliable enough sample from one season when you're looking at small splits (like RISP). A-Rod's #s with RISP have varied from around .260 to .330 with RISP each year as a Yankee. Are you really telling me that he's mentally a different person each year and some years is afraid to hit with runners in scoring position whereas other years excels in that scenario? I don't buy it. I think it's just the kind of random fluctuation you get with small #s. If you flip a coin 100 times, you might get 55 heads. Then another 100 times, you might get 45 heads. Does that mean we need to analyze characteristics of the coin to see what caused the change? No, it's just random fluctuation that occurs with small samples. I know everyone who bashes A-Rod's clutch hitting won't buy that argument, but the next season where his RISP #s are good they'll say he "grew as a person" and "handles pressure better now." Then the next time they're bad, they'll go back to the comments they made this year. All players have these fluctuations in small samples of their hitting. We only even notice the fluctuations if it's a player for whom we put every statistic under the microscope.

Are you really telling me that he's mentally a different person each year and some years is afraid to hit with runners in scoring position whereas other years excels in that scenario? I don't buy it.

i'm not saying he becomes a different player but i do believe that he lets the pressure get to him sometimes & he tries to do too much w/his swing... he's even admitted that publically so it's no newsflash... he knows he needs to relax at the plate & just let his natural talent take over, but sometimes u can see he's pressing cuz he desperately wants to get that big hit in that big playoff game... if u don't think his postseason #'s since he got here point to that i dunno what to tell ya, & i'm probably his biggest defender on these forums... u gotta admit he's had his share of problems being clutch in playoff games & that's probably a huge understatement.

Anyone catch the Red Sux celebrating on the field like they'd just won the damn WS last night? i dunno about any of u but i found it pretty sickening... ESPN just showed Papelbon ranting like a lunatic & guzzling champagne & made light of it... if that had been Joba or ARod you'd have critics coming outta the woodwork, but because it's the Sox of course it's just Papsmear being Papsmear to ESPN.

Am i just having sour grapes here cuz the Yanks aren't the ones doing the celebrating or does anyone else think that was way overboard? i've never seen the Yanks go that crazy over clinching a WC berth.

what 4 guys do u wanna see gone? only Giambi & Abreu's contracts are up in terms of everyday position players... the rest of the guys are all under contract.

3 new starting pitchers is optimistic, i'd be happy as long as we get CC & another solid middle rotation guy like Garland... we have a couple kids who've looked pretty good in the closing stretch that i wouldn't mind seeing given an opportunity at the back end of the rotation like Aceves & Coke... plus by then Umberto Sanchez might be set to be given more of a look & hopefully Hughes won't be as much of a bust as he was this year, but that i'm not really counting on at this point.

i agree w/u on Posada but there aren't many quality C's available out there... we probably have as good as we're gonna get in Molina as a backup right now... until we develop a C prospect in our minors Jorge is what we're gonna have... no way in hell we'll be able to trade for someone like Russell Martin anytime soon.

Giambi will be gone, i think we can assume that much... Matsui i think will be here, unless they find a willing partner in a trade, i don't see him going anywhere especially coming off a major surgery... Abreu might be back but my money says he won't be... Hank said there would be major changes in the roster for next season & i think he's gonna be part of that change... Damon may be a candidate to trade, he can still put up #'s offensively & was healthy for the most part this season... they may wanna give Gardner a shot next year... i really wish we'd have signed Torii Hunter when we had the chance tho, but that's water under the bridge now... Cano is a definite trade chip that i think could be shopped this offseason for some top pitching... forget about ARod going anywhere, he's a cash cow for the Yankees & even in his worst ever year he puts up #'s most players can only dream about.

well get used to them cuz he's here to stay... we're not gonna be trading him & there are no other 3B in the game that are a better option.

I really don't think we need too much. Only a few additions (I know they're big additions) but I think everything else we need is already here. Just a matter of adding a few pieces and doing some tinkering. I wouldn't mind seeing this:

OUT
Giambi
Pettitte
Pavano

STAY
Abreu ($19 mil. dollar option's a lot but we don't have adequate replacements w/o thinning ourselves out.)
Mussina (Curious to see what kind of money he might be looking for. Latest rumor has him retiring though.)

IN
Teixeira (Makes so much more sense to pay this guy than Giambi. Much better all-around player and about a decade younger.)
CC Sabathia or if he's not interested or wants too much money AJ Burnett
Juan Cruz

LINEUP
Damon DH
Jeter SS
Abreu RF
Rodriguez 3B
Teixeira 1B
Nady LF
Posada C
Cano 2B
Gardner CF (Should go to the Arizona Fall League/Instructional League to work on his hitting. That swing needs work - no more pop-ups, needs to bunt more and hit the ball on the ground - could be a major weapon. Great defense with 50/60+ stolen base potential.)

KEY BENCH PLAYERS
Matsui (Power bat off the bench. Either he or Damon switch at DH. When Matsui's in for a more 'power' lineup, Gardner leads off or he stays in the 9 hole and Jeter leads off. Could also platoon with Nady in left.)
Benemit
Ransom (Basically another reserve infielder along w/Benemit but I like this kid.)
Molina
Cabrera
Christian (If it came down to it, I'd rather carry this kid over Melky just for the extra speed.)

ROTATION
Chamberlain (Needs to go to the Arizona fall league or the Intructional League to make up the lost innings & build up the arm strength. Don't care what anyone says, the Yankees are better off with him as a starter.)
Wang (Didn't injure his arm so he should be fresh.)
Sabathia or Burnett
Hughes
Mussina or Aceves

BULLPEN
Veras
Bruney
Cruz (FA righthander that throws flame. Has had good success - 2 very good years in a row for the D-Backs. Replaces Joba's arm in the pen/frees up Joba to start. Could be the eventual closer. Makes so much sense.)
Marte
Coke
Ramirez
Robertson
Aceves (Long man/spot starter. He's earned a spot, he's been good. If Mussina retires, he's my 5th starter.)
Rivera

MINOR LEAGUE ADDITIONS ALONG THE WAY
Juan Miranda (I like his swing and we might need a legit 1B reserve at some time.)
Austin Jackson (Might not be ready yet, but is probably a better player than Melky at this point. 5 tool guy.)
Mark Melancon (Successful righty short man, has a slider that's been compared to K-Rod's.)

IMO, if we put it together like this, we're back on top next year.


[Edited by - finestrg on 09-25-2008 2:34 PM]

Matsui (Power bat off the bench.

i don't think there's any chance u'll be seeing Matsui coming off the bench... he'll either be the fulltime DH/part time LFer or he won't be healthy enough to start the season... much better chance u'll see Damon traded, Abreu allowed to walk w/Gardner playing CF & the Yankees going out & signing somebody like Manny to play RF than your scenario taking place IMHO... i think Hank's gonna do some major tinkering w/this team.