NYKMentality wrote:And this is another example why I'll never take these computerized simulators and percentages, serious.I just watched an 18-52 San Antonio Spurs TANK TEAM lose to an Atlanta Hawks team (fighting their hearts out to make the Playoffs) and witnessed Atlanta not only lose the game but also blow a 24 Point lead while losing the game.
You see.
This is why NBA teams actually play the games because final results aren't based off Adam Silver "simulating the games".
They play the games on the basketball court (not through simulators) for a reason.
Would be pretty funny if Miami loses to another tank team (Detroit Pistons) still early but Detroit's @ home and up on the Heat by 2 points (31-29) in the 2nd Q.
Oh my...
Again, your lack of understanding what you're talking about is holding you back and resulting in errors.
Pro tip: if you're going to call something out, understand it first.
I've never advocated for relying on any simulated model to predict a GAME result. I've never predicated a game result at all. For THAT reason.
YOU have.
In my experience, often incorrectly.
In my experience, sometimes incorrectly even DURING games themelves.
Go ahead... tell me I'm wrong.
But to help you grasp this concept: A guy who shoots .400 from three over a career or over a season can shoot 1-10 during a game easy. Nobody would blink an eye. But if you want to predict how he's going to shoot over the next 25 games, the best tool is to look at what's he's shot over the previous 25, 75, 164, 300 games.
Won't be perfect. Doesn't mean the guy can't go into an extended slump, get hot, or improve over a long haul either. It's sports. Can happen. That's the fun of sports (to me anyway). But at any given moment, the best indicator of what will happen over a large sample size, is what HAS happened over a larger sample size.
That's IT.
On February 23, 2023, I merely pointed out that even IF the Knicks pulled off an extraordinary run to 50 wins, you were still asking the Cavs and Sixers to play well under their established level for an extended period, despite both being good teams for a while.
You cited the Sixers league-leading most difficult .SOS the rest of the way and the fact they Cavs had lost a couple of recent games on that date, despite their very easy schedule for the same measure.
Since:
Sixers: 10-3 (.769)
Cavs: 7-5 (.583), with the little blip you crowed about for a week in their rear view mirror.
So AGAIN even if the Knicks go 8-2 (which is still very, very good) to get to 50, Cavs only need to go 5-4 to get to 50. Sixers 2-10.
3rd ain't happening. Never was.
With just 9 games left, the Knicks CAN pass Cleveland. I hope they do. 10-0 (given one of them is a tie-breaking securing win over Cavs) almost certainly will get it done.
Other than that, the odds on 2/23 look about the same as they do now. For the same reason. The Cavs are a relatively healthy, good team, who like on 2/23 happen to a very soft schedule the last 9 games.
Your problem is the same problem other forums and the moderator of this forum have identified for you. There is a social connection you're unable to make.
You don't understand that I'm a Knicks fan that approaches watching the Knicks and NBA pragmatically, and that's how I enjoy that game. That just doesn't compute with you. You literally don't comprehend not being the exact kind of fan you like being.
But we'll get to that more in due time...
