RonRon wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:Bonnie.. you need show no shame. You picked 3 wins less then me. Thats RIGHT ENOUGH! No excuses needed. The important thing here is you learned something. Too bad turning on the TV before you post wasnt one of them

So you still haven't learned that you can't trust your eyes?! The eyeball test is bad enough, but your eyes seem to be especially bad. No offense, but maybe if someone drops a pile of bricks on your head it will make you smarter!
Seriously, I sometimes watch the game but I have no desire to be as off-base as you and your blind eyeball test. I'll pass on the suggestion to use the worst available method and get the whole conference wrong like you. Why would I take advice from the poster with one of the worst track records here?

since Im taking a break Ill engage you... please tell me which of my eye ball tests is especially bad?

1) Melo isnt the reason the Knicks stink, its our guards
2) Melo is a high impact player

what am I missing Bonn? since you bookmarked my prediction surely you have other follish statements I have said also marked? Im curios.. do tell which of my eyeball observations have been totally off.

It's whatever brilliant eye test you used that led you to predict a 50 win season and 5 teams in the conference with 50 wins.

see... he's where your totally wrong. I never ever said my win prediction was based on my eye test. Why? because Ive WATCHED enough sports, and PLAYED enough sports (and GAMBLED enough on sports) to KNOW that predicting win totals and even wins period is more luck than anything else. So I would never have said that, so in addition to being blind your reading comp sucks as well.

Here's the problem. A lot of people on this board watch a lot of basketball. You dont. But you will look at a players stats and comment as if thats good enough. It isnt. You do the same with box scores. Like that game the other day where Melo starts 0-7 but but was great the rest of the game. See you dont see those things in the box score.. only with eyeballs.

We all have access to ESPN, and 82games and all the clever sites you have access to as well. Why dont for once.. just once tell us something you have seen? Its easy to hide behind stats. Cant argue those... only their value.

Funny... every sport, no matter how many metrics they use or what stats they rely on, EVERY SPORT uses the human eye to evaluate talent. Even the money ball metrics king still makes his final judgements on what he sees and what his people see. But yea Bonn... your better then everyone else who actually watches. I would say about 3 wins better.

Fish,
Did you state multiple times that MWP should start, even recently prior to him being cut?

Whats funny about this whole prediction thing is this:
I ride Bonn because I know he doesnt watch, so he pours through stats and joins the discussion, even though he says very little... Ive said many many times that the #s dont always tell the story, that a guy's box score doesnt really tell you what kind of night he had. You have to use your eyes. Then Bonn's retort to that to discredit my daily musings or in game observations because I did a lousy job predicting win totals in the East. How you get one from the other is beyond me but OK

And yes... Bonn.. you have a history here of book marking prediction threads to throw them in people's faces later. Remember Ive been here like 10+ years... but its cool. Yes, fishmike was wrong, so you and TFK and DK can start the parade plans on that front

So what did I see this offseason? I saw us put a rugged tough guy next to Melo in MWP(failed). I saw us add a bigman who could score from all over and stretch the D (Bargs, epic fail). I assumed (fail) that JR would pick up where he left off, going from 6th man to fighting for an all star birth possibly as our #2 scores (even bigger epic fail). I thought that Felton and Prigs at PG were the weak link for sure, but a healthier smart Shumpert (fail) and Beno who looked good as a bench player for winning teams (another fail) could offer some help. I figured whatever we got from Stat, KMart, THjr and the other bench guys would be gravy.

So that was my thinking... I lowered my win total to 50 from the previous 54 because I didnt like the backcourt but I thought there was potential also for some other good things happening. I didnt bank on literally everything failing but it happened.

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:Bonnie.. you need show no shame. You picked 3 wins less then me. Thats RIGHT ENOUGH! No excuses needed. The important thing here is you learned something. Too bad turning on the TV before you post wasnt one of them

So you still haven't learned that you can't trust your eyes?! The eyeball test is bad enough, but your eyes seem to be especially bad. No offense, but maybe if someone drops a pile of bricks on your head it will make you smarter!
Seriously, I sometimes watch the game but I have no desire to be as off-base as you and your blind eyeball test. I'll pass on the suggestion to use the worst available method and get the whole conference wrong like you. Why would I take advice from the poster with one of the worst track records here, Fishy? Please explain how that makes sense

is it so important to not watch games to be correct statistically in a forum thread ? I do enough stats at work to look at basketball as a social/relaxing/not work related time ... thus the necessity to WATCH the game and be happy or mad depending on if the Knicks win or loose or perform or not ... of course this is a business and you need to have a correct assessment of your players to run your team efficiently (not like Dolan's Knicks actually but this is another story), but even in that case we do talk about human beings prone to make errors or to mess up all your yearly predictions, not machines

your approach to "enjoy" basketball sounds really boring and a bit "inhuman" to me, but I'm not criticizing, everyone is free ...

Every wonder why Briggs is the most read guy here? Despite being wrong a 1000 times on his player predictions? Because he writes what he sees, and folks value that... wrong or right. Nobody values a stat regurgitator. We have that here... her name is scorebot and she's got 10x the wit and good looks you do, so you might as well find a different approach. I would suggest watching some games. Knicks play tonight. Check it out.

Myself I like the DVR approach. Then I can fastfoward through the commercials and timeouts. Just looking out for you... trying to help.

gunsnewing wrote:I don't think anyone can deny that watching Carmelo Anthony led tea is extremely boring

dk7th wrote:

fishmike wrote:Bonn... your the slowest smart guy I have ever read. Quoting stats sucks. Nobody cares. We can all look at that. People use their eyes because you learn things the #s dont show.

Every wonder why Briggs is the most read guy here? Despite being wrong a 1000 times on his player predictions? Because he writes what he sees, and folks value that... wrong or right. Nobody values a stat regurgitator. We have that here... her name is scorebot and she's got 10x the wit and good looks you do, so you might as well find a different approach. I would suggest watching some games. Knicks play tonight. Check it out.

Myself I like the DVR approach. Then I can fastfoward through the commercials and timeouts. Just looking out for you... trying to help.

you are wrong-- statistics are used to illuminate what the eyes see, and that is why they are useful.

however, after a body of work has been established and statistical trends are derived, one can easily infer what has happened with a particular player. with advanced statistics you get closer and closer to inferring what has transpired, like a sonic digital curve with greater amounts of bits getting closer to an analog curve. that's how CDs and mp3 files work. is it as good as analog vinyl? no but it gives a pretty accurate sonic picture nonetheless.

all that said, i have watched carmelo anthony play plenty. he has not evolved one bit. the dude is boring and makes the teams he plays on boring too.

why watch something boring?

gunsnewing wrote:The first 23 games were awesome. The way they played after that was not condusive to winning in the playoffs

And who led the team during those first 23 awesomely boring games?

We iso'd more as the year went on. It effected our offensive efficiency as guys stopped touching the ball and moving around. A lot of ball watching. Non-coincidently the defense turned to ****. Tyson and Felton were a shell of their former selves. No inspiration in ISO ball. We were a .500 team until Melo go ridiculously hot in his isos at the end of the year and we are able to beat the Orlando's of the world. The. We were exposed vs real teams like Boston and Indiana in the playoffs

gunsnewing wrote:They played as a team. Not ISO Melo or jr

We iso'd more as the year went on. It effected our offensive efficiency as guys stopped touching the ball and moving around. A lot of ball watching. Non-coincidently the defense turned to ****. Tyson and Felton were a shell of their former selves. No inspiration in ISO ball. We were a .500 team until Melo go ridiculously hot in his isos at the end of the year and we are able to beat the Orlando's of the world. The. We were exposed vs real teams like Boston and Indiana in the playoffs

I mean Kidd didnt hit a shot in the playoffs. He literally shot 0%. JR missed everything and shot somewhere in the 30s. Tyson had played Hibbert well in the reg season and we beat Indy. You figured he could at least hold it down against Hibbert. He didnt. So Woody fed Melo hoping to stay in the game and get something, anything from someone else. It didnt happen. Do you hang that on Melo? Or is it just his fault because this is his team and we gave up so much to get him etc etc etc

My favorite part is when DK (hee-haw) says the guy leading the NBA in minutes, #2 in scoring and top 10 in the NBA in over all production (PER) is out of shape. Good stuff. I also heard Melo hates kittens and cute things in general.

Bonn1997 wrote:

dk7th wrote:

fishmike wrote:Bonn... your the slowest smart guy I have ever read. Quoting stats sucks. Nobody cares. We can all look at that. People use their eyes because you learn things the #s dont show.

Every wonder why Briggs is the most read guy here? Despite being wrong a 1000 times on his player predictions? Because he writes what he sees, and folks value that... wrong or right. Nobody values a stat regurgitator. We have that here... her name is scorebot and she's got 10x the wit and good looks you do, so you might as well find a different approach. I would suggest watching some games. Knicks play tonight. Check it out.

Myself I like the DVR approach. Then I can fastfoward through the commercials and timeouts. Just looking out for you... trying to help.

you are wrong-- statistics are used to illuminate what the eyes see, and that is why they are useful.

however, after a body of work has been established and statistical trends are derived, one can easily infer what has happened with a particular player. with advanced statistics you get closer and closer to inferring what has transpired, like a sonic digital curve with greater amounts of bits getting closer to an analog curve. that's how CDs and mp3 files work. is it as good as analog vinyl? no but it gives a pretty accurate sonic picture nonetheless.

all that said, i have watched carmelo anthony play plenty. he has not evolved one bit. the dude is boring and makes the teams he plays on boring too.

why watch something boring?

Yes, I mock the eyeball test because of how badly people here did using it but it's naive to view the stats and the eyes as polar opposites or even as unrelated to each other. I don't know how Fish measured how read Briggs and everyone else is or why he thinks we would care either. Enough people are interested in the stats that almost every team hires these statisticians and message boards have all sorts of people discussing them. If Fish simply said they were over his head and he wasn't interested, I wouldn't care. It's endlessly attacking everyone who mentions an advanced stat that gets ridiculous.

yea, the eyeball test is important, but you must have stats to dig a step deeper.. as you said, you can't trust the everyones eye ball test..... Advanced stats are huge now, teams are now turning to them.. paying people tons of money to for that information..