DurzoBlint wrote:

NYKMentality wrote:

tkf wrote:great post dk.. there is an article I found in a denver publication.. i wish I still had it, but the writer went into the numbers pretty much the same way you did and he was talking about gallo.. He was saying that if you look at gallo numbers on the surface, there is nothing spectacular about it, but looking deeper into the numbers using these metrics it really highlighted how good of a all around player, and the affect gallo has on denver... interesting stuff.. i will try to find it for you...

Honestly, this was good work on your part, but I don't see why this poster brings up gallo when this thread was about carmelo and his promises... again, the same guys that accuse me of hyping up gallo mention him more than anyone else on this board.. go figure..

"Great post dk".

Oh shut up already you little internet troll. "I found a Denver publication"... "I wish I still had it". You little liar.

Melo: .453 FG%. (.416 3PT%). 29.1 points, 1.6 offensive boards, 4.6 defensive boards, 6.2 overall boards, 2.7 assists, 0.9 steals and 0.6 blocks per game. 7.47 free throws attempted and 6.19 free throws made per game. Record of 25-11.

Gallo: .423 FG% (.372 3PT%), 17.0 points, 1.0 offensive boards, 4.3 defensive boards, 5.3 overall boards, 2.4 assists, 0.8 steals and 0.5 blocks per game. 4.95 free throws attempted and 4.02 free throws made per game. Record of 29-17.

Is this where we should congratulate Gallo for a better free throw percentage? Your little agenda in regards to talking up Gallo while harping all over Melo is getting old. You did it over on RealGM and you're doing it here. Troll.

wow, TK has been more than a little off but, wow talk about going at someone. Aren't you worried about a suspension or something. Do they even do that on this site?

Not calling for it or anything but, this (with you two) has gotten really ugly.

Doesn't really matter to me anymore. Thought this was a Knicks site. With Knick fans. But in actual reality? You can't talk up our Knicks without people harping over anything and everything positive. This place is really being ran over by trolls. TKF sitting here any lying to my face is what sent me over board. Which is why I called him a lying son of a bitch.

TKF: "Have I even mentioned gallo in any of these threads other than the thread for other teams"?

That's what set me off. He talks up Gallo any chance he gets (even during this thread a couple of pages ago), harps all over Melo, and he's done it since RealGM too. And now he's sitting here and acting as if he hasn't talked Gallo during thread after thread? Liars will lie in order to "prove a point". And TKF my friend, is a stone cold liar.

How can one talk up Gallo (as a Knicks fan), but yet harp all over Melo when...

Melo: .453 FG%. (.416 3PT%). 29.1 points, 1.6 offensive boards, 4.6 defensive boards, 6.2 overall boards, 2.7 assists, 0.9 steals and 0.6 blocks per game. 7.47 free throws attempted and 6.19 free throws made per game. Record of 25-11.

Gallo: .423 FG% (.372 3PT%), 17.0 points, 1.0 offensive boards, 4.3 defensive boards, 5.3 overall boards, 2.4 assists, 0.8 steals and 0.5 blocks per game. 4.95 free throws attempted and 4.02 free throws made per game. Record of 29-17.

Is this where we should congratulate Gallo for a better free throw percentage?

tkf wrote:

dk7th wrote:

NYKMentality wrote:

tkf wrote: He also said that he wouldn't be making scoring his priority.. yet he still takes a lot of shots and is avg more PPG than last year..

How about defense? does he plan on playing any of that consistently?

passing?

How about keeping cool, being poised and being a leader? that is part of helping your team win, yet he stands outside the celtics bus, and is near the top of the league in tech fouls..

carmelo is not being mocked.. many of us have seen this from him before... scoring especially.... I think the knicks hot start had a lot to do with a lot of guys playing and shooting well above their averages.... now that has tapered our record has not been so good.. yet carmelo still scores, still rebounds... right? so tell me, what is missing , maybe he should be doing something else?

just saying...

What a freaking hypocritical hypocrite you are. You talk up your little boy lover in Gallo and bash Melo 24/7.

You talk about Melo's scoring? Melo's at 29.4 points per game when compared to Gallo's 16.8.

You talk about Melo's shooting? Melo's FG% is at .452% when compared to Gallo's .418.

You talk about Melo's defense? Melo's been our strongest Knick defender here in 2012-2013 while Gallo is a laughing stock joke on defense.

You talk about Melo's passing? Melo's averaging 2.6 assists per game when compared to Gallo's 2.4.

You talk about Melo's rebounding? Melo's averaging 6.2 boards per game when compared to Gallo's 5.3.

You talk about the Knicks record under Melo? Melo's 24-11 while Gallo's only 28-17.

So yea, Melo's 2nd amongst all NBA players in scoring while featuring the NBA's 7th strongest Player Efficiency Rating. Why has Melo has to score in order for our Knicks to win ball games? Because our guards rank dead last in shooting percentage and Jason Kidd missed 4 games, without Raymond Felton for 12 games, without Kurt Thomas for 15 games, without Rasheed Wallace for 22 games, without Marcus Camby for 28 games, without Amar'e Stoudemire for 30 games and without Iman Shumpert for 37 games.

But yet, we're still 24-11 with Melo leading the way. A winning percentage of .686% during games in which Melo has led the way as the NBA's 2nd leading scorer. And only the Spurs, Thunder and Clippers have a winning percentage greater than .686%. Keep scoring Melo. Because that's all the Knicks do is win under Melo's scoring ability.

the problem with the stats you use to make your case is that they are being used to the exclusion of other stats that are perhaps a bit more reflective of the fluidness of the game. in other words, many of the stats you are using are relatively "static."

take the easiest one:

1)field goal percentage. since the advent of the 3-point line FG% is basically obsolete for all positions but center and the occasional power forward. i think you understand why this must be: it's because almost all positions but center shoot the 3 ball.

for that we use the eFG%. here gallinari is shooting a slightly below average 49.4 but he is slowly climbing to his career average. meanwhile melo is above his career average of 48.0-- he is at 51.4 but has been slowly regressing. eventually their averages will cross paths.

additionally, there is the ability to draw fouls and get to the line. this is a talent and the better players in the league tend to draw more fouls. agreed?

the stat for this is true shooting percentage or TS%. look at gallinari, who at present is below his career average of 57.7-- he is at 55.7 and climbing. and melo, again, is above his career average of 54.5% and is at an almost elite 57% but has been regressing there as well. really elite scorers are at 58% or higher. interestingly is for his career closer to elite than melo, but melo is considered the vastly better scorer. does this invalidate the TS%? i don't think so but it is pretty clear you do.

now lets look at something a little more esoteric, namely

2)usage rate as it relates to assist rate usg/ast-- this ratio represents how often the ball is in a player's hands as a play is made as it relates to how often that play ends up as an assist. the higher the ratio is above 1 the more we can see that the player is an isolation player who does not really share the ball and create cohesion. the further below the number is below 1 the more unselfish the player is and creates more offensive cohesion.

melo started the season at a way too high 3:1 and has since lessened that ratio to 2.50:1-- which is still too high. the raw numbers are 34.7 to 14.6. so he controls the ball on more than a third of the possessions in a five-man team game but the possession ends up with an assist only 14.6% of the time. gallinari meanwhile has a ratio of 1.91:1 with raw figures of 21.8 to 11.4. notice that he has the ball almost exactly one-fifth of the time in a five-man game. his 11.4 assist percentage is lower than melo's in terms of raw numbers, but if you have the ball a fifth of the time as opposed to a third of the time then of course the chance to assist will be lower too.

basketball being a game of motion and fluidity is more like calculus and these deeper metrics are superior representations of this fluidity. the stats you are using are more suitable for baseball, which is by nature a static game.

great post dk.. there is an article I found in a denver publication.. i wish I still had it, but the writer went into the numbers pretty much the same way you did and he was talking about gallo.. He was saying that if you look at gallo numbers on the surface, there is nothing spectacular about it, but looking deeper into the numbers using these metrics it really highlighted how good of a all around player, and the affect gallo has on denver... interesting stuff.. i will try to find it for you...

Honestly, this was good work on your part, but I don't see why this poster brings up gallo when this thread was about carmelo and his promises... again, the same guys that accuse me of hyping up gallo mention him more than anyone else on this board.. go figure..

thanks tkf. i really tried to be useful or helpful to this guy-- and others for that matter-- because it is becoming clearer that these advanced stats are not fully understood by many posters here and on other sites like realgm, and are summarily dismissed or scorned. "i was told there would be no math." ha ha.

well math is very useful in basketball. what i don't understand is why it isn't embraced. i mean for years all i did was the eye test-- never have been much of a stat guy-- and of course i still do the eye test every game i watch, and when i see something positive or negative in the flow of the action i only afterwards look to the statistical analysis to verify what i am witnessing.

clearly there's a presumption here, however, that all i do is study the stat sheets to the exclusion of the games. of course this is not true when it comes to the knicks. i do admit that i will often look at stats of players or teams i have not seen to try to get *some* notion of how they are doing, but not with the knicks. after all, when stats have, over time, proven their value through "predictive accuracy" there is no need to dismiss them in the absence of watching games. but then again it is wrong to embrace the stats wholesale if you haven't been watching the players play either.

that said, the game is being studied more closely than ever and the statistics that have been derived are better than ever.

there's a saying attributed to mark twain: “People commonly use statistics like a drunk uses a lamp post; for support rather than illumination.”

the operative word here is "commonly" which has the connotation of "improperly." i use statistics properly: to illuminate further what i am seeing.

i would love have a look at that article you mentioned.

NYKMentality wrote:Doesn't really matter to me anymore. Thought this was a Knicks site. With Knick fans. But in actual reality? You can't talk up our Knicks without people harping over anything and everything positive. This place is really being ran over by trolls. TKF sitting here any lying to my face is what sent me over board. Which is why I called him a lying son of a bitch.

While I do agree with what you're saying, you do have a tendency to get riled up over any post that isnt 100% positive. There are Knick fans here who dont like Melo and have said so themselves. Dont bother with them if you can see that theres no use (i'll admit that it took me a while to learn this myself). However, there are some Knick fans here who bring up some things that need to be done or some things that could use improvement and I dont think it should be seen as them "not being Knick fans". A simple "Melo had a great game but his defense needs to be better" shouldnt set off tirades of insults and accusations. Those things incite discussion which is why we're all here. Thats my opinion at least.

NYKMentality wrote:Oh shut up already you little internet troll. "I found a Denver publication"... "I wish I still had it". You little liar.

not having it NYKMentality. Stop this type of posting.

dk7th wrote:

tkf wrote:

dk7th wrote:

NYKMentality wrote:

tkf wrote: He also said that he wouldn't be making scoring his priority.. yet he still takes a lot of shots and is avg more PPG than last year..

How about defense? does he plan on playing any of that consistently?

passing?

How about keeping cool, being poised and being a leader? that is part of helping your team win, yet he stands outside the celtics bus, and is near the top of the league in tech fouls..

carmelo is not being mocked.. many of us have seen this from him before... scoring especially.... I think the knicks hot start had a lot to do with a lot of guys playing and shooting well above their averages.... now that has tapered our record has not been so good.. yet carmelo still scores, still rebounds... right? so tell me, what is missing , maybe he should be doing something else?

just saying...

What a freaking hypocritical hypocrite you are. You talk up your little boy lover in Gallo and bash Melo 24/7.

You talk about Melo's scoring? Melo's at 29.4 points per game when compared to Gallo's 16.8.

You talk about Melo's shooting? Melo's FG% is at .452% when compared to Gallo's .418.

You talk about Melo's defense? Melo's been our strongest Knick defender here in 2012-2013 while Gallo is a laughing stock joke on defense.

You talk about Melo's passing? Melo's averaging 2.6 assists per game when compared to Gallo's 2.4.

You talk about Melo's rebounding? Melo's averaging 6.2 boards per game when compared to Gallo's 5.3.

You talk about the Knicks record under Melo? Melo's 24-11 while Gallo's only 28-17.

So yea, Melo's 2nd amongst all NBA players in scoring while featuring the NBA's 7th strongest Player Efficiency Rating. Why has Melo has to score in order for our Knicks to win ball games? Because our guards rank dead last in shooting percentage and Jason Kidd missed 4 games, without Raymond Felton for 12 games, without Kurt Thomas for 15 games, without Rasheed Wallace for 22 games, without Marcus Camby for 28 games, without Amar'e Stoudemire for 30 games and without Iman Shumpert for 37 games.

But yet, we're still 24-11 with Melo leading the way. A winning percentage of .686% during games in which Melo has led the way as the NBA's 2nd leading scorer. And only the Spurs, Thunder and Clippers have a winning percentage greater than .686%. Keep scoring Melo. Because that's all the Knicks do is win under Melo's scoring ability.

the problem with the stats you use to make your case is that they are being used to the exclusion of other stats that are perhaps a bit more reflective of the fluidness of the game. in other words, many of the stats you are using are relatively "static."

take the easiest one:

1)field goal percentage. since the advent of the 3-point line FG% is basically obsolete for all positions but center and the occasional power forward. i think you understand why this must be: it's because almost all positions but center shoot the 3 ball.

for that we use the eFG%. here gallinari is shooting a slightly below average 49.4 but he is slowly climbing to his career average. meanwhile melo is above his career average of 48.0-- he is at 51.4 but has been slowly regressing. eventually their averages will cross paths.

additionally, there is the ability to draw fouls and get to the line. this is a talent and the better players in the league tend to draw more fouls. agreed?

the stat for this is true shooting percentage or TS%. look at gallinari, who at present is below his career average of 57.7-- he is at 55.7 and climbing. and melo, again, is above his career average of 54.5% and is at an almost elite 57% but has been regressing there as well. really elite scorers are at 58% or higher. interestingly is for his career closer to elite than melo, but melo is considered the vastly better scorer. does this invalidate the TS%? i don't think so but it is pretty clear you do.

now lets look at something a little more esoteric, namely

2)usage rate as it relates to assist rate usg/ast-- this ratio represents how often the ball is in a player's hands as a play is made as it relates to how often that play ends up as an assist. the higher the ratio is above 1 the more we can see that the player is an isolation player who does not really share the ball and create cohesion. the further below the number is below 1 the more unselfish the player is and creates more offensive cohesion.

melo started the season at a way too high 3:1 and has since lessened that ratio to 2.50:1-- which is still too high. the raw numbers are 34.7 to 14.6. so he controls the ball on more than a third of the possessions in a five-man team game but the possession ends up with an assist only 14.6% of the time. gallinari meanwhile has a ratio of 1.91:1 with raw figures of 21.8 to 11.4. notice that he has the ball almost exactly one-fifth of the time in a five-man game. his 11.4 assist percentage is lower than melo's in terms of raw numbers, but if you have the ball a fifth of the time as opposed to a third of the time then of course the chance to assist will be lower too.

basketball being a game of motion and fluidity is more like calculus and these deeper metrics are superior representations of this fluidity. the stats you are using are more suitable for baseball, which is by nature a static game.

great post dk.. there is an article I found in a denver publication.. i wish I still had it, but the writer went into the numbers pretty much the same way you did and he was talking about gallo.. He was saying that if you look at gallo numbers on the surface, there is nothing spectacular about it, but looking deeper into the numbers using these metrics it really highlighted how good of a all around player, and the affect gallo has on denver... interesting stuff.. i will try to find it for you...

Honestly, this was good work on your part, but I don't see why this poster brings up gallo when this thread was about carmelo and his promises... again, the same guys that accuse me of hyping up gallo mention him more than anyone else on this board.. go figure..

thanks tkf. i really tried to be useful or helpful to this guy-- and others for that matter-- because it is becoming clearer that these advanced stats are not fully understood by many posters here and on other sites like realgm, and are summarily dismissed or scorned. "i was told there would be no math." ha ha.

well math is very useful in basketball. what i don't understand is why it isn't embraced. i mean for years all i did was the eye test-- never have been much of a stat guy-- and of course i still do the eye test every game i watch, and when i see something positive or negative in the flow of the action i only afterwards look to the statistical analysis to verify what i am witnessing.

clearly there's a presumption here, however, that all i do is study the stat sheets to the exclusion of the games. of course this is not true when it comes to the knicks. i do admit that i will often look at stats of players or teams i have not seen to try to get *some* notion of how they are doing, but not with the knicks. after all, when stats have, over time, proven their value through "predictive accuracy" there is no need to dismiss them in the absence of watching games. but then again it is wrong to embrace the stats wholesale if you haven't been watching the players play either.

that said, the game is being studied more closely than ever and the statistics that have been derived are better than ever.

there's a saying attributed to mark twain: “People commonly use statistics like a drunk uses a lamp post; for support rather than illumination.”

the operative word here is "commonly" which has the connotation of "improperly." i use statistics properly: to illuminate further what i am seeing.

i would love have a look at that article you mentioned.

good post Dk, and here is the link to the article, I am sure you will enjoy the use of the numbers..

http://www.denverstiffs.com/2013/1/12/3866818/inside-the-numbers-danilo-gallinari-denver-nuggets

the operative word here is "commonly" which has the connotation of "improperly." i use statistics properly: to illuminate further what i am seeing.

yea, I think that is the same approach that morey and uri for denver use when evaluating players.. so far.. so good..

Cartman718 wrote:

gunsnewing wrote:

DurzoBlint wrote:

Nalod wrote:

tkf wrote:

AnubisADL wrote:You gotta make it to the playoffs to have a playoff record right?

Knicks weren't even doing that before Melo.

they also weren't doing it before amare either...

The Playoff failure is not on Melo but the organizational roster construction. Starphuchs have a price and we paid it with a thin roster last season.

This year we are better constructed and with a coach better suited.

Everyone has "blame" when the organization fails. Melo has his share but so does Amare and Chandler.

Amare went 7/7 in last nites "Scrimmage" against the Magic. AMare is the wild card here. If he can regain his health and use his new toys he got from Hakeem but with greater efficency then it has great potential.

1+1 needs to equal 3!

And not a single thread about how good Amare looked or how fun it was to watch this win. Guys are just too fuking much with the negativity.

Check the game thread

or My Start Amare Now thread

Also don't know if you are referring to this thread being negative but it was created after getting blown out by the Sixers. Not lastnight. Melo played a flawless game last night

Melo played a great game on offense last night and this is exactly how he has to play.... ON OFFENSE. But lets also be realistic that he played like this against a team that had lost 17 of their last 19 games coming in.

Until we started hitting the 3 ball last night, we couldn't pull away in the 4th against the Magic? really? How many times did they hit 3s on screens, far too many times.

Both Melo and Amare have to graduate at least to come close to the passing abilities of Lebron and Kobe. It's not who they have been their careers so far, but neither has Kobe. To beat the best, you have to become the best. Nothing new there and it does start with your best players.

Even after a 7 of 7 outing against the Magic, I do not understand why Amare is not getting the ball more. Woodson is so STUBBORN. Run some plays for Amare out of timeouts dammit!! How is he being rewarded for his effort off the bench, by JR taking ill-advised shots? Why is Woodson so much in JR's corner? His performance was the best last night in what has seemed like a month and I hope it continues, but I wouldn't be surprised if Woodson keeps "hoping" JR becomes his go to guy off the bench as opposed to riding his studs (Melo and Amare).

woodson has been a JR enabler.. I don't like that, and I don't trust woodson really.. you make a great point.. why isn't amare getting the ball more?

tkf wrote:

Cartman718 wrote:

gunsnewing wrote:

DurzoBlint wrote:

Nalod wrote:

tkf wrote:

AnubisADL wrote:You gotta make it to the playoffs to have a playoff record right?

Knicks weren't even doing that before Melo.

they also weren't doing it before amare either...

The Playoff failure is not on Melo but the organizational roster construction. Starphuchs have a price and we paid it with a thin roster last season.

This year we are better constructed and with a coach better suited.

Everyone has "blame" when the organization fails. Melo has his share but so does Amare and Chandler.

Amare went 7/7 in last nites "Scrimmage" against the Magic. AMare is the wild card here. If he can regain his health and use his new toys he got from Hakeem but with greater efficency then it has great potential.

1+1 needs to equal 3!

And not a single thread about how good Amare looked or how fun it was to watch this win. Guys are just too fuking much with the negativity.

Check the game thread

or My Start Amare Now thread

Also don't know if you are referring to this thread being negative but it was created after getting blown out by the Sixers. Not lastnight. Melo played a flawless game last night

Melo played a great game on offense last night and this is exactly how he has to play.... ON OFFENSE. But lets also be realistic that he played like this against a team that had lost 17 of their last 19 games coming in.

Until we started hitting the 3 ball last night, we couldn't pull away in the 4th against the Magic? really? How many times did they hit 3s on screens, far too many times.

Both Melo and Amare have to graduate at least to come close to the passing abilities of Lebron and Kobe. It's not who they have been their careers so far, but neither has Kobe. To beat the best, you have to become the best. Nothing new there and it does start with your best players.

Even after a 7 of 7 outing against the Magic, I do not understand why Amare is not getting the ball more. Woodson is so STUBBORN. Run some plays for Amare out of timeouts dammit!! How is he being rewarded for his effort off the bench, by JR taking ill-advised shots? Why is Woodson so much in JR's corner? His performance was the best last night in what has seemed like a month and I hope it continues, but I wouldn't be surprised if Woodson keeps "hoping" JR becomes his go to guy off the bench as opposed to riding his studs (Melo and Amare).

woodson has been a JR enabler.. I don't like that, and I don't trust woodson really.. you make a great point.. why isn't amare getting the ball more?

Everyone is stating how much better JR has been this year - the numbers do not back up this theory.

I don't know what Woody said in the locker room before yesterdays game but we saw a different team out there. Even Chandler had a different attitude on offense.

gunsnewing wrote:Its the new york media. Last yr tyson carried the team defensively. The medias push for him to win dpoy and make the olympics team had a lot to do with being in new york. JRs overall number this year are probably the worst of his career. Glad he seems to be turning it around past 2 games

I'm guessing that part of it had to do with Stat starting to assert himself more on offense and JR having to adjust to the change. Looks like they are starting to play well together.

martin wrote:

NYKMentality wrote:Oh shut up already you little internet troll. "I found a Denver publication"... "I wish I still had it". You little liar.

not having it NYKMentality. Stop this type of posting.

I can respect that Martin. And thanks for the warning.

dk7th wrote:

tkf wrote:

dk7th wrote:

tkf wrote:

dk7th wrote:

NYKMentality wrote:

tkf wrote: He also said that he wouldn't be making scoring his priority.. yet he still takes a lot of shots and is avg more PPG than last year..

How about defense? does he plan on playing any of that consistently?

passing?

How about keeping cool, being poised and being a leader? that is part of helping your team win, yet he stands outside the celtics bus, and is near the top of the league in tech fouls..

carmelo is not being mocked.. many of us have seen this from him before... scoring especially.... I think the knicks hot start had a lot to do with a lot of guys playing and shooting well above their averages.... now that has tapered our record has not been so good.. yet carmelo still scores, still rebounds... right? so tell me, what is missing , maybe he should be doing something else?

just saying...

What a freaking hypocritical hypocrite you are. You talk up your little boy lover in Gallo and bash Melo 24/7.

You talk about Melo's scoring? Melo's at 29.4 points per game when compared to Gallo's 16.8.

You talk about Melo's shooting? Melo's FG% is at .452% when compared to Gallo's .418.

You talk about Melo's defense? Melo's been our strongest Knick defender here in 2012-2013 while Gallo is a laughing stock joke on defense.

You talk about Melo's passing? Melo's averaging 2.6 assists per game when compared to Gallo's 2.4.

You talk about Melo's rebounding? Melo's averaging 6.2 boards per game when compared to Gallo's 5.3.

You talk about the Knicks record under Melo? Melo's 24-11 while Gallo's only 28-17.

So yea, Melo's 2nd amongst all NBA players in scoring while featuring the NBA's 7th strongest Player Efficiency Rating. Why has Melo has to score in order for our Knicks to win ball games? Because our guards rank dead last in shooting percentage and Jason Kidd missed 4 games, without Raymond Felton for 12 games, without Kurt Thomas for 15 games, without Rasheed Wallace for 22 games, without Marcus Camby for 28 games, without Amar'e Stoudemire for 30 games and without Iman Shumpert for 37 games.

But yet, we're still 24-11 with Melo leading the way. A winning percentage of .686% during games in which Melo has led the way as the NBA's 2nd leading scorer. And only the Spurs, Thunder and Clippers have a winning percentage greater than .686%. Keep scoring Melo. Because that's all the Knicks do is win under Melo's scoring ability.

the problem with the stats you use to make your case is that they are being used to the exclusion of other stats that are perhaps a bit more reflective of the fluidness of the game. in other words, many of the stats you are using are relatively "static."

take the easiest one:

1)field goal percentage. since the advent of the 3-point line FG% is basically obsolete for all positions but center and the occasional power forward. i think you understand why this must be: it's because almost all positions but center shoot the 3 ball.

for that we use the eFG%. here gallinari is shooting a slightly below average 49.4 but he is slowly climbing to his career average. meanwhile melo is above his career average of 48.0-- he is at 51.4 but has been slowly regressing. eventually their averages will cross paths.

additionally, there is the ability to draw fouls and get to the line. this is a talent and the better players in the league tend to draw more fouls. agreed?

the stat for this is true shooting percentage or TS%. look at gallinari, who at present is below his career average of 57.7-- he is at 55.7 and climbing. and melo, again, is above his career average of 54.5% and is at an almost elite 57% but has been regressing there as well. really elite scorers are at 58% or higher. interestingly is for his career closer to elite than melo, but melo is considered the vastly better scorer. does this invalidate the TS%? i don't think so but it is pretty clear you do.

now lets look at something a little more esoteric, namely

2)usage rate as it relates to assist rate usg/ast-- this ratio represents how often the ball is in a player's hands as a play is made as it relates to how often that play ends up as an assist. the higher the ratio is above 1 the more we can see that the player is an isolation player who does not really share the ball and create cohesion. the further below the number is below 1 the more unselfish the player is and creates more offensive cohesion.

melo started the season at a way too high 3:1 and has since lessened that ratio to 2.50:1-- which is still too high. the raw numbers are 34.7 to 14.6. so he controls the ball on more than a third of the possessions in a five-man team game but the possession ends up with an assist only 14.6% of the time. gallinari meanwhile has a ratio of 1.91:1 with raw figures of 21.8 to 11.4. notice that he has the ball almost exactly one-fifth of the time in a five-man game. his 11.4 assist percentage is lower than melo's in terms of raw numbers, but if you have the ball a fifth of the time as opposed to a third of the time then of course the chance to assist will be lower too.

basketball being a game of motion and fluidity is more like calculus and these deeper metrics are superior representations of this fluidity. the stats you are using are more suitable for baseball, which is by nature a static game.

great post dk.. there is an article I found in a denver publication.. i wish I still had it, but the writer went into the numbers pretty much the same way you did and he was talking about gallo.. He was saying that if you look at gallo numbers on the surface, there is nothing spectacular about it, but looking deeper into the numbers using these metrics it really highlighted how good of a all around player, and the affect gallo has on denver... interesting stuff.. i will try to find it for you...

Honestly, this was good work on your part, but I don't see why this poster brings up gallo when this thread was about carmelo and his promises... again, the same guys that accuse me of hyping up gallo mention him more than anyone else on this board.. go figure..

thanks tkf. i really tried to be useful or helpful to this guy-- and others for that matter-- because it is becoming clearer that these advanced stats are not fully understood by many posters here and on other sites like realgm, and are summarily dismissed or scorned. "i was told there would be no math." ha ha.

well math is very useful in basketball. what i don't understand is why it isn't embraced. i mean for years all i did was the eye test-- never have been much of a stat guy-- and of course i still do the eye test every game i watch, and when i see something positive or negative in the flow of the action i only afterwards look to the statistical analysis to verify what i am witnessing.

clearly there's a presumption here, however, that all i do is study the stat sheets to the exclusion of the games. of course this is not true when it comes to the knicks. i do admit that i will often look at stats of players or teams i have not seen to try to get *some* notion of how they are doing, but not with the knicks. after all, when stats have, over time, proven their value through "predictive accuracy" there is no need to dismiss them in the absence of watching games. but then again it is wrong to embrace the stats wholesale if you haven't been watching the players play either.

that said, the game is being studied more closely than ever and the statistics that have been derived are better than ever.

there's a saying attributed to mark twain: “People commonly use statistics like a drunk uses a lamp post; for support rather than illumination.”

the operative word here is "commonly" which has the connotation of "improperly." i use statistics properly: to illuminate further what i am seeing.

i would love have a look at that article you mentioned.

good post Dk, and here is the link to the article, I am sure you will enjoy the use of the numbers..

http://www.denverstiffs.com/2013/1/12/3866818/inside-the-numbers-danilo-gallinari-denver-nuggets

the operative word here is "commonly" which has the connotation of "improperly." i use statistics properly: to illuminate further what i am seeing.

yea, I think that is the same approach that morey and uri for denver use when evaluating players.. so far.. so good..

it really looks as though the "moneyball" approach is starting to get a foothold in this sport. i mean hollinger was hired by the grizzlies and we are already seeing their approach with the rudy gay trade. you look at gay's numbers and you can see he is grossly overpaid for what he gives a team, at least from an advanced statistics viewpoint.

one thing i want to point out about the article: the author's interpretation of usage rate is different from mine. he uses the stat to support a player's ability to create his own shot, which is misleading because it does not reflect whether that shot is a good shot. i use the stat to simply represent how often the ball is in that player's hands over the course of the game when he is on the floor. i may be wrong in my use of the statistic but without a way to qualify the shot taken i don't see the point of his interpretation.

good point, and I wanted you to read the article because I was interested in your opinion here, but I think overall, the use of advanced stats is really being used and when used properly can be one heck of a tool... also what did you think about RAPM? click on the link in that article and it gives you a history of player rankings.. you will always find the elite players at or near the top of course.. pretty interesting how he interprets gallo's in relation to some of the elite players on that list...

dk7th wrote:

tkf wrote:

dk7th wrote:

tkf wrote:

dk7th wrote:

NYKMentality wrote:

tkf wrote: He also said that he wouldn't be making scoring his priority.. yet he still takes a lot of shots and is avg more PPG than last year..

How about defense? does he plan on playing any of that consistently?

passing?

How about keeping cool, being poised and being a leader? that is part of helping your team win, yet he stands outside the celtics bus, and is near the top of the league in tech fouls..

carmelo is not being mocked.. many of us have seen this from him before... scoring especially.... I think the knicks hot start had a lot to do with a lot of guys playing and shooting well above their averages.... now that has tapered our record has not been so good.. yet carmelo still scores, still rebounds... right? so tell me, what is missing , maybe he should be doing something else?

just saying...

What a freaking hypocritical hypocrite you are. You talk up your little boy lover in Gallo and bash Melo 24/7.

You talk about Melo's scoring? Melo's at 29.4 points per game when compared to Gallo's 16.8.

You talk about Melo's shooting? Melo's FG% is at .452% when compared to Gallo's .418.

You talk about Melo's defense? Melo's been our strongest Knick defender here in 2012-2013 while Gallo is a laughing stock joke on defense.

You talk about Melo's passing? Melo's averaging 2.6 assists per game when compared to Gallo's 2.4.

You talk about Melo's rebounding? Melo's averaging 6.2 boards per game when compared to Gallo's 5.3.

You talk about the Knicks record under Melo? Melo's 24-11 while Gallo's only 28-17.

So yea, Melo's 2nd amongst all NBA players in scoring while featuring the NBA's 7th strongest Player Efficiency Rating. Why has Melo has to score in order for our Knicks to win ball games? Because our guards rank dead last in shooting percentage and Jason Kidd missed 4 games, without Raymond Felton for 12 games, without Kurt Thomas for 15 games, without Rasheed Wallace for 22 games, without Marcus Camby for 28 games, without Amar'e Stoudemire for 30 games and without Iman Shumpert for 37 games.

But yet, we're still 24-11 with Melo leading the way. A winning percentage of .686% during games in which Melo has led the way as the NBA's 2nd leading scorer. And only the Spurs, Thunder and Clippers have a winning percentage greater than .686%. Keep scoring Melo. Because that's all the Knicks do is win under Melo's scoring ability.

the problem with the stats you use to make your case is that they are being used to the exclusion of other stats that are perhaps a bit more reflective of the fluidness of the game. in other words, many of the stats you are using are relatively "static."

take the easiest one:

1)field goal percentage. since the advent of the 3-point line FG% is basically obsolete for all positions but center and the occasional power forward. i think you understand why this must be: it's because almost all positions but center shoot the 3 ball.

for that we use the eFG%. here gallinari is shooting a slightly below average 49.4 but he is slowly climbing to his career average. meanwhile melo is above his career average of 48.0-- he is at 51.4 but has been slowly regressing. eventually their averages will cross paths.

additionally, there is the ability to draw fouls and get to the line. this is a talent and the better players in the league tend to draw more fouls. agreed?

the stat for this is true shooting percentage or TS%. look at gallinari, who at present is below his career average of 57.7-- he is at 55.7 and climbing. and melo, again, is above his career average of 54.5% and is at an almost elite 57% but has been regressing there as well. really elite scorers are at 58% or higher. interestingly is for his career closer to elite than melo, but melo is considered the vastly better scorer. does this invalidate the TS%? i don't think so but it is pretty clear you do.

now lets look at something a little more esoteric, namely

2)usage rate as it relates to assist rate usg/ast-- this ratio represents how often the ball is in a player's hands as a play is made as it relates to how often that play ends up as an assist. the higher the ratio is above 1 the more we can see that the player is an isolation player who does not really share the ball and create cohesion. the further below the number is below 1 the more unselfish the player is and creates more offensive cohesion.

melo started the season at a way too high 3:1 and has since lessened that ratio to 2.50:1-- which is still too high. the raw numbers are 34.7 to 14.6. so he controls the ball on more than a third of the possessions in a five-man team game but the possession ends up with an assist only 14.6% of the time. gallinari meanwhile has a ratio of 1.91:1 with raw figures of 21.8 to 11.4. notice that he has the ball almost exactly one-fifth of the time in a five-man game. his 11.4 assist percentage is lower than melo's in terms of raw numbers, but if you have the ball a fifth of the time as opposed to a third of the time then of course the chance to assist will be lower too.

basketball being a game of motion and fluidity is more like calculus and these deeper metrics are superior representations of this fluidity. the stats you are using are more suitable for baseball, which is by nature a static game.

great post dk.. there is an article I found in a denver publication.. i wish I still had it, but the writer went into the numbers pretty much the same way you did and he was talking about gallo.. He was saying that if you look at gallo numbers on the surface, there is nothing spectacular about it, but looking deeper into the numbers using these metrics it really highlighted how good of a all around player, and the affect gallo has on denver... interesting stuff.. i will try to find it for you...

Honestly, this was good work on your part, but I don't see why this poster brings up gallo when this thread was about carmelo and his promises... again, the same guys that accuse me of hyping up gallo mention him more than anyone else on this board.. go figure..

thanks tkf. i really tried to be useful or helpful to this guy-- and others for that matter-- because it is becoming clearer that these advanced stats are not fully understood by many posters here and on other sites like realgm, and are summarily dismissed or scorned. "i was told there would be no math." ha ha.

well math is very useful in basketball. what i don't understand is why it isn't embraced. i mean for years all i did was the eye test-- never have been much of a stat guy-- and of course i still do the eye test every game i watch, and when i see something positive or negative in the flow of the action i only afterwards look to the statistical analysis to verify what i am witnessing.

clearly there's a presumption here, however, that all i do is study the stat sheets to the exclusion of the games. of course this is not true when it comes to the knicks. i do admit that i will often look at stats of players or teams i have not seen to try to get *some* notion of how they are doing, but not with the knicks. after all, when stats have, over time, proven their value through "predictive accuracy" there is no need to dismiss them in the absence of watching games. but then again it is wrong to embrace the stats wholesale if you haven't been watching the players play either.

that said, the game is being studied more closely than ever and the statistics that have been derived are better than ever.

there's a saying attributed to mark twain: “People commonly use statistics like a drunk uses a lamp post; for support rather than illumination.”

the operative word here is "commonly" which has the connotation of "improperly." i use statistics properly: to illuminate further what i am seeing.

i would love have a look at that article you mentioned.

good post Dk, and here is the link to the article, I am sure you will enjoy the use of the numbers..

http://www.denverstiffs.com/2013/1/12/3866818/inside-the-numbers-danilo-gallinari-denver-nuggets

the operative word here is "commonly" which has the connotation of "improperly." i use statistics properly: to illuminate further what i am seeing.

yea, I think that is the same approach that morey and uri for denver use when evaluating players.. so far.. so good..

it really looks as though the "moneyball" approach is starting to get a foothold in this sport. i mean hollinger was hired by the grizzlies and we are already seeing their approach with the rudy gay trade. you look at gay's numbers and you can see he is grossly overpaid for what he gives a team, at least from an advanced statistics viewpoint.

one thing i want to point out about the article: the author's interpretation of usage rate is different from mine. he uses the stat to support a player's ability to create his own shot, which is misleading because it does not reflect whether that shot is a good shot. i use the stat to simply represent how often the ball is in that player's hands over the course of the game when he is on the floor. i may be wrong in my use of the statistic but without a way to qualify the shot taken i don't see the point of his interpretation.

I don't think "moneyball" is getting a foothold at all, considering that "moneyball" doesn't work. It will allow one to build a competitive team but not a championship team. Rudy guy was overpaid from the 1st day he signed that contract. Heck, almost every FA that summer was overpaid except for the collusion crew.