Knickoftime wrote:I think some people are missing the forest for the trees on this deal, seduced by the fantasy that 'Melo was going to be available as a FA this off season (he never REALLY was) or that Denver would ever accept a lopsided deal in the Knicks favor (they would not).

Some factors to consider:

1.) This wasn't last season and it isn't the 2012 off season. The uncertainly of the CBA and 'Melo's unique position IS a significant factor, always has been. There isn't a NBA writer who's provided ANY indication during this entire process that the extension hasn't been a top priority since day 1.

We can rationalize all we like that Anthony MIGHT not lose that much if he goes to free agency, and that there probably won't be a franchise tag, or that he should be willing to accept less ala the Miami guys, but this is just fan wish-listing.

It's never been a realistic option.

Knock 'Melo for that if you want, but still you have to eliminate free agency as a legitimate option open to the Knicks in any fair evaluation of the true options open to the Knicks.

2.) Denver could never accept what would essentially be a Chandler (a young yes but third tier, immediate RFA with questionable injury history) for Anthony swap, no matter how much "leverage" the Knicks held and Anthony exerted. This was always a fan-fantasy that was never going to occur.

3.) Chauncey Billups has been outplaying Raymond Felton for going on 3 months now. Yes, he's older, and not the same penetrating player (Melo takes over the break-the-defense-down guy anyway), but he HAS been running the league's highest scoring offense and shooting the ball from the perimeter with ridiculous accuracy since December (look up his splits).

And his contract (if extended) does NOT prohibit the Knicks from signing other players next off season (Knicks wouldn't have had any space with Felton either) and in fact will serve as a larger expiring NEXT off season than Felton would have.

If Knicks see a path to Williams or Paul (which would be entirely different situations than 'Melo because they can't sign extensions before the new CBA, they'll have more leverage to be traded to where they want), then Billups serves as a full-on cap matching expiring).

Mosgov/Douglas/Turiaf (expiring)/Billups (expiring) for Paul/Okafor a year from now? Just throwing it out there...

4.) Chandler (who was earmarked gone anyway) + Gallinari or Fields for Anthony is entirely equitable and if you look what the Nets were willing to give up and project what other teams might had the playing field be open, is not that steep a price.

5.) This deal, like the Stoudemire deal, is part of a larger whole, and ALSO has to be evaluated as PART of a process.

Stoudemire puts the Knicks first in line for 'Melo. Does 'Melo put them at the top of the conversation fro the 2012 class?

This deal, if it goes down, ALSO immediately creates two roster spaces - three if the Knicks let Mason Jr. go now that he's not needed for cap filler in a deal. And it looks like there may be a strong market of players who may be bought out after the deadline (Murphy, Hamilton?)

Knicks will likely be in position to add players that will make them deeper going into the playoffs.

Plus there is Azubuike. If he's not also in the deal he may also be used to bring in a player for a team looking for a expiring and cap relief, or who knows, perhaps with a whole year of recovery, the Knicks can bring him back next year (they have his Bird Rights remember and if the deal goes down, won't need his cap space).

Either way if the deal goes down as reported, the Knicks roster won't be "gutted". I'm not sure where anyone is coming from with that.

Yes, it would be GREAT to fantasize about Gallinari (or Chandler) being the Knicks' perennial '6th man of year' guy off the bench, but if this boils down to Chandler and Gallinari OR 'Melo extends with Denver or goes to the Nets, I don't know how you don't make that deal.

Excellent post...

Everyone loves ****ting on David Lee around here. Amare is a great player, but he is also playing with Felton and Fields and a more mature Chandler and Gallo and we are two games above .500. The Warriors happen to be three games under .500 and Lee missed a large chunk of time and wasn't right after the injury.

And where is this Billups love coming from. He is averaging 5 assists on a team filled with gifted scorers, he shoots it at 41.8% over his career and lets face it the big shot nickname was a gift. Felton has played injured and been run into the ground by the coach. He plays uptempo ball and does a good job of getting people involved. We get older by doing this trade we bring in a guy that wants a 3-year $65 million dollar extension after we gut the entire team.

Felton
Dec 17.8pts 10.2 ass
Jan 15pts 8.7ass
Feb 16pts 10ass

Billups
18.9pts 6ass
16pts 4.9ass
17.9pts 5.9ass

MS wrote:Ok so we make the trade who exactly are we better then? The Bulls have played much of the season without Boozer and Noah and that core is better than ours. The Heat are still the better team. The Celtics are the best team in the league and with Perkins, KG, Baby Shaq in the playoffs we can't beat them because Amare will be in foul trouble. So we are better than the Hawks a team we are better than already! Awesome deal. Carmelo can get us to the first round of the playoffs a place we are going to be anyway.

Everyone loves ****ting on David Lee around here. Amare is a great player, but he is also playing with Felton and Fields and a more mature Chandler and Gallo and we are two games above .500. The Warriors happen to be three games under .500 and Lee missed a large chunk of time and wasn't right after the injury.

And where is this Billups love coming from. He is averaging 5 assists on a team filled with gifted scorers, he shoots it at 41.8% over his career and lets face it the big shot nickname was a gift. Felton has played injured and been run into the ground by the coach. He plays uptempo ball and does a good job of getting people involved. We get older by doing this trade we bring in a guy that wants a 3-year $65 million dollar extension after we gut the entire team.

Felton
Dec 17.8pts 10.2 ass
Jan 15pts 8.7ass
Feb 16pts 10ass

Billups
18.9pts 6ass
16pts 4.9ass
17.9pts 5.9ass

How is this trade gutting the team? Let's see what Billups does in the system and compare numbers at that point.

Knickoftime wrote:

MS wrote:Ok so we make the trade who exactly are we better then?

The Knicks as presently constituted.

...

The concept that you shouldn't get better if you can't immediately become the best is really misguided.

Who were the Knicks surpassing in the next 3 years without making this deal?

And how exactly?

But there is a corollary to that too: you have to be able to get better AFTER that significantly enough to meet your goals of championship.

Knickoftime wrote:I think some people are missing the forest for the trees on this deal, seduced by the fantasy that 'Melo was going to be available as a FA this off season (he never REALLY was) or that Denver would ever accept a lopsided deal in the Knicks favor (they would not).

Some factors to consider:

1.) This wasn't last season and it isn't the 2012 off season. The uncertainly of the CBA and 'Melo's unique position IS a significant factor, always has been. There isn't a NBA writer who's provided ANY indication during this entire process that the extension hasn't been a top priority since day 1.

We can rationalize all we like that Anthony MIGHT not lose that much if he goes to free agency, and that there probably won't be a franchise tag, or that he should be willing to accept less ala the Miami guys, but this is just fan wish-listing.

It's never been a realistic option.

Knock 'Melo for that if you want, but still you have to eliminate free agency as a legitimate option open to the Knicks in any fair evaluation of the true options open to the Knicks.

2.) Denver could never accept what would essentially be a Chandler (a young yes but third tier, immediate RFA with questionable injury history) for Anthony swap, no matter how much "leverage" the Knicks held and Anthony exerted. This was always a fan-fantasy that was never going to occur.

3.) Chauncey Billups has been outplaying Raymond Felton for going on 3 months now. Yes, he's older, and not the same penetrating player (Melo takes over the break-the-defense-down guy anyway), but he HAS been running the league's highest scoring offense and shooting the ball from the perimeter with ridiculous accuracy since December (look up his splits).

And his contract (if extended) does NOT prohibit the Knicks from signing other players next off season (Knicks wouldn't have had any space with Felton either) and in fact will serve as a larger expiring NEXT off season than Felton would have.

If Knicks see a path to Williams or Paul (which would be entirely different situations than 'Melo because they can't sign extensions before the new CBA, they'll have more leverage to be traded to where they want), then Billups serves as a full-on cap matching expiring).

Mosgov/Douglas/Turiaf (expiring)/Billups (expiring) for Paul/Okafor a year from now? Just throwing it out there...

4.) Chandler (who was earmarked gone anyway) + Gallinari or Fields for Anthony is entirely equitable and if you look what the Nets were willing to give up and project what other teams might had the playing field be open, is not that steep a price.

5.) This deal, like the Stoudemire deal, is part of a larger whole, and ALSO has to be evaluated as PART of a process.

Stoudemire puts the Knicks first in line for 'Melo. Does 'Melo put them at the top of the conversation fro the 2012 class?

This deal, if it goes down, ALSO immediately creates two roster spaces - three if the Knicks let Mason Jr. go now that he's not needed for cap filler in a deal. And it looks like there may be a strong market of players who may be bought out after the deadline (Murphy, Hamilton?)

Knicks will likely be in position to add players that will make them deeper going into the playoffs.

Plus there is Azubuike. If he's not also in the deal he may also be used to bring in a player for a team looking for a expiring and cap relief, or who knows, perhaps with a whole year of recovery, the Knicks can bring him back next year (they have his Bird Rights remember and if the deal goes down, won't need his cap space).

Either way if the deal goes down as reported, the Knicks roster won't be "gutted". I'm not sure where anyone is coming from with that.

Yes, it would be GREAT to fantasize about Gallinari (or Chandler) being the Knicks' perennial '6th man of year' guy off the bench, but if this boils down to Chandler and Gallinari OR 'Melo extends with Denver or goes to the Nets, I don't know how you don't make that deal.

Excellent post. Your points are well-considered and reason for me to think a bit more on why I don't like the taste of this deal. I accept the premise: You've got to give something to get something. I also hadn't really considered the value of Billups' larger expiring next off-season. That could make a big difference in trying to get a talented, young PG.