meloshouldgo wrote:Don't be too sure Nalod. Everyone said he would never win the nomination. Can't keeping making that mistake. The rules of where and how elections are won is changing. I think he has about a 35-40% chance of winning this thing.
I hope he doesn't, but part of me also loathes another 4-8 years of one percenter money grab economy that Clinton would ensure.

Bonn1997 wrote:

meloshouldgo wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

meloshouldgo wrote:Don't be too sure Nalod. Everyone said he would never win the nomination. Can't keeping making that mistake. The rules of where and how elections are won is changing. I think he has about a 35-40% chance of winning this thing.
I hope he doesn't, but part of me also loathes another 4-8 years of one percenter money grab economy that Clinton would ensure.

Sounds about right. The FiveThirtyEight polls plus forecast gives Hillary a 67.7% chance
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus

She is winning the electoral college at roughly 2 to 1, and the popular vote 47 to 45.
Yet there's a 7.8% chance she wins the popular vote and losses the electoral college
I would have thought that intersection of the two probabilities would have been a lot smaller. But I trust their data since they run so many cycles

Hmmmm. Fivethirtyeight's polls plus model has the electoral map at 297 to 241. That's a lot closer than 2 to 1.

You are right. I looked at the 68-32 overall win percentage on top of the electoral map and thought that was the electoral vote split. I think it makes more sense that the electoral vote is closer. At least is more consistent. My bad.

gunsnewing wrote:The idea that Trump is doing all this to promote a future reality show is the most ridiculous idea I've ever heard.

He breezed through 16 other republican candidates to get to this point

Cause those other guys were collective jokes. The other last man standing was THE most hated member of congress. Can you get more ridiculous?

Welpee wrote:

arkrud wrote:

Welpee wrote:

arkrud wrote:

Welpee wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

holfresh wrote:Fared Zachariah was talking about this book today called the rightoues mind..Basically saying that our political preferences are not a product of careful analytic reasoning but is a product from moral intuition, instinct and tribal affiliation with people who we believe share those instincts..We then try to find one idea that the csndidate have in common with what we are thinking..So in essence you could completely disagree with most of what he is saying but it doesn't matter...

Oh I see, I say essentially this pages ago and everyone ignores it, but now some dude writes a book about and it's lapped up!

Like I said, the main problem with Trump is he resonates emotionally with people and he shares their views that have been considered shameful until now. If something resonates emotionally you are less likely to think objectively and will instead distort and deny any info that doesn't fit with it. We've seen it on this thread - Trump wasn't lying when he said he could shoot someone and it wouldn't dent his ratings.

But here's what gets me, when people pointed out that racism still exists in this country they're shouted down by folks who want to deny it and point to the fact that we have a black president as proof racism is dead. Then Trump comes along and unleashes all of the closet racists and bigots that folks have been saying always existed who now feel more freedom to openly express their views. The one good thing I will say about Trump is I believe he always knew these folks were out there and played to them like a drum.

Trump is synonym of American Society.
We want entertainment, we are bored...
We want shooting, riots, war, crime, drama, outrageous lairs in power, conspiracies, sex scandals, and see big a..ss on TV.
Trump is so modern-American its not funny.
What America really needs is major economic downturn, international policy collapse, and as a result people stop watching reality shows and being forced to work to get food on the table. Then we will have a chance to have America great again.

Yeah, because America was really great in the late 20s/30s during the depression. Fun times.

It became great after it...
People need to learn again that there is no free lunch.
Plain and simple.
And it is inevitable.
To rebuild you need to crash.
With this kind of "Presidents" we inevitably will crash.
Just get prepared for tough ride.
And do not worry - if one is a person or real skills, personal integrity, hard work, and timeless values he/she will survive and thrive. The rest... well.. everyone getting what he/she deserve... at the end.

So we need return to the 40s and engage in another WWII-like situation in order for "America to be great again?" So thousands of people have to die, probably millions of lives ruined to be "great again?" Or are you talking about the 50s? Was America great for blacks and other minorities? How about women? Gays and lesbian? Maybe you're referring to the 60s when life in America was just so calm and pleasant. Tell me the time frame you're referring to when we became "great." Give me dates.

America was gradually improving from 30th to 90th... Then we run into some stagnation.
But I have no worries.
A lot of fresh blood is coming from Asia, Latin America, and all over.
They will define US of the future.
It will be different country. Not black and white but much more colorful.
We created significant wealth and are holding on to it for the most part.
It is also concentrated so can work for the society and produce a lot more wealth.
If we will keep focus and do not waste wealth by socializing it more that necessary to keep stability we will be OK.
Hilary or Trump with all their deficiencies and oddities are still not a problems.
As soon as dangerous people like Berny and other left wing prophets are out of power we be fine.
As per "Great"... it is all relative.
We are great comparing to Russia, China, and all this falling apart 3rd wold... But not so great comparing to Australia, New Zealand, Switzerland, or Israel.
Still is is a matter of choice... diff people like diff things...

martin wrote:Trump is no genius, he just inherited a lot

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/turmp-wealth-inheritence_us_57f2ed79e4b01b16aafea2a0

Because as rich as the Republican presidential nominee is, his stewardship of the $200 million real estate empire he took control of four decades ago has failed to keep pace with either the general real estate market or the economy as a whole.

Trump has frequently put a dollar amount on the “small loan” he mentioned Monday: $1 million. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton got under his skin at the first presidential debate last week by using the figure $14 million.

Either number misses a key point. The loan had little to do with the main source of Trump’s wealth, which was the real estate and construction company his father had built over a number of decades.

Trump took over running that company in 1974, at age 28, when it was worth approximately $200 million, according to a contemporaneous New York Times article. The vast majority of Trump’s wealth today flows from that initial nest egg, which he and his four siblings eventually inherited when their father died in 1999.

What’s more, given the size of that original fortune, Trump has actually underperformed both the stock market as well as the real estate market.

Had Trump taken his share of what would become his father’s inheritance and put it into an index fund matching the S&P 500 back in 1974, it would have been worth $3 billion today. Had he put the $200 million that Fortune magazine determined he was worth in 1982 into that same index fund, he would be worth more than $8 billion today.

And had that $200 million gone into the broad real estate market, it would be worth more than $20 billion today.

Wow didn't realize he had inherited that much. Wonder why Hillary doesn't use this against him? This is pure gold. 200MM wow.