TripleThreat wrote:

Here's what my observation, training and experience with young prospects tells me

A) Any weight problem tends to bring questions if the prospect has a drinking problem. Not saying this is always the case, but the question will tend to pop up privately.

B) Weight problems tend to spiral out of control in the offseason. In season, with regular season grind and simply the wear of travel, practice, games, etc, it's easier to manage.

C) If the Knicks win the draft lottery ( unlikely but let's roll with it for the sake of discussion), they should take Zion for value but if they aren't comfortable with him and his weight issues and other issues like tradeoffs, they should consider trading him.

It comes down to this - Do you believe in the player? If you don't, then you seek to find max value for that specific draft slot. Just like the Celtics were not sold on Fultz. But they recognized at the time, he had the most value on the board and traded the slot away.

A lot of the stuff he's doing in college games won't translate to the pro level. He very high risk but also very high reward.

The issue is if a trade is even there to make. It's not that easier to trade the first overall pick and have it work as a fit for both teams involved.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/1/29/18201984/zion-willliamson-point-center

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2817224-zion-williamson-could-be-the-best-no-1-nba-draft-pick-in-a-decade

VCoug wrote:https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/1/29/18201984/zion-willliamson-point-center

From this one..."Almost every defender in college basketball is both slower and smaller than him, and it won’t be much different in the NBA."
Not true. He's listed as PF. Even at SF...I think either slower or smaller...but definitely not both in the NBA.

Cartman718 wrote:

VCoug wrote:https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/1/29/18201984/zion-willliamson-point-center

From this one..."Almost every defender in college basketball is both slower and smaller than him, and it won’t be much different in the NBA."
Not true. He's listed as PF. Even at SF...I think either slower or smaller...but definitely not both in the NBA.

I don't think he's that far off. Based on Zion's current weight, he'd be the 2nd biggest guy in the NBA; only Boban Marjanovic is bigger. So then it's just a matter of how many players are actually faster than him.

I've never been good about predicting professional success of a college player in any sport, but there's a lot to be said for a player being smart. That seems to improve with age -- vertical leap not so much

Chandler wrote:Andrew Wiggings comes to mind; was supposed to be the next generational player with otherworldly athleticism

I've never been good about predicting professional success of a college player in any sport, but there's a lot to be said for a player being smart. That seems to improve with age -- vertical leap not so much

Wiggins was nowhere near as acclaimed as Zion is and didn't have anywhere near the statistical profile of Zion. The better comparison this year to Wiggins would be Cam Reddish. Both went into NCAA with a ton of hype and I believe they were both the top recruits in the country. Neither player blew anyone away with their play on the court and neither a good statistical profile at all.

martin wrote:

Cartman718 wrote:The team with the 4th worst record...what are their chances of snagging #1, 2 or 3 with the new format?
Also this morning on about a dozen attempts, tankathon reports RJ Barrett or Darius Garland multiple times and once, the only human city in the Matrix and once, the Speed "Racer".

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

So basically Atlanta Chicago Memphis not far behind in terms of picking #1. A TRUE lottery. Ouch.

ESOMKnicks wrote:Zion is at best another Barkley or LJ. Which means he may dazzle us with hops and power for four years, until back problems rob him of his elevation. And at that point, unless he develops a reliable jump shot and some go-to low post moves that take advantage of his bulk and strength, plus leadership and charisma to inspire his teammates, he could quickly fizzle out.

25.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 3.8 steals per game
Those are Lebron's numbers in high school, granted he was already 6'7 at the time.

These are Zion's numbers in 28 mins...
reb 9.2 assists 2.4 blocks 2.0 steals 2.0 TO 2.0 Pts 22.0

Comparable and if Lebron can develop a jump shot, so can Zion. The question, how long will it take him to do that?

Lebron did it in late 20s, coasting until then on athleticism. Lebron's vision was way better around the same age, and Zion can have tunnel vision in halfcourt because at the moment, he feels he can blow by or overpower any defenders.

That would be the key to me in determining if he's truly a generational talent. Is he making his teammates better if he's going to be point forward in the NBA?

Vince Carter he is not. We need shooters bad. More than we need a penetrator.

VCoug wrote:

ESOMKnicks wrote:Zion is at best another Barkley or LJ. Which means he may dazzle us with hops and power for four years, until back problems rob him of his elevation. And at that point, unless he develops a reliable jump shot and some go-to low post moves that take advantage of his bulk and strength, plus leadership and charisma to inspire his teammates, he could quickly fizzle out.

Why exactly do you think getting another Barkley would be a bad thing? He was a league MVP, All-NBA 11 years in a row, and is probably one of the 20 or 25 best players in NBA history. He's probably better than anyone who's ever worn a Knick uniform; we would be extremely lucky to get someone like that with our pick.

Because times change? Barkley was never required to shoot 3s. shoot shoot shoot is the new nba. Zion has been called out for offensive fouls I have noticed in the few games I have watched. With better defenders in the NBA I can see that more often. This is why I like Knox because bad D or not, his outside shooting is sweet. Curry's defensive fallacies are covered by his teammates and it works because they've got good defenders in the post AND he absolutely makes opponents pay at the other end with his outside shooting.

smackeddog wrote:

Cartman718 wrote:

martin wrote:

Cartman718 wrote:The team with the 4th worst record...what are their chances of snagging #1, 2 or 3 with the new format?
Also this morning on about a dozen attempts, tankathon reports RJ Barrett or Darius Garland multiple times and once, the only human city in the Matrix and once, the Speed "Racer".

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

So basically Atlanta Chicago Memphis not far behind in terms of picking #1. A TRUE lottery. Ouch.

Even worse- even with the worst record, you have a 47.9% chance of falling to 5th. Horrific stuff! If only we'd sucked this badly last year

edit: I just ran the sim and we dropped to 5th in my first four runs of it

We have a better than average chance of a top 4 pick and a guaranteed top 5 pick, how is that bad?
Second seed has 20% chance of falling out of top 5
Third seed has 33% chance of falling out of top 5
And so on....

Trust me you want to be the worst record and NOT the second or third worst. If lottery is where you are headed, go for the MAXIMUM odds. Anything else (like Knicks over the last several years) is just plain stupid.