fishmike wrote:

BRIGGS wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Knixkik wrote:

BRIGGS wrote:Jus think about this---Allen Crabbe just turned 24 and he lead all of the NBA players in efg in the playoffs for a team that was very close to beating GS.
He's just going to get better. I think hes like a young Allan Houston. Hes the same size as Allan hes got a very similar touch. If you start to really think about it if we are going to spend money--first we have to OUTSPEND the rest of the NBA and Portland and it might have to have shock value. I look at our team and the nBA and we lack great outside shooting--and I think for pennies on the dollar(in terms of total cap)--we can go out and put big offers out there for Curry and Crabbe.

I agree. We have to take some chances somewhere. If we are going to take chances, we should do it on young players with good outside shots. We need to gamble on upside and fit, and these players hit on both criteria.

with another cap jump and an even better FA crop is this the offseason to overpay and take that chance? Is overpaying to get a guy like Crab worth the risk of not participating in next years FA?

The list is DEEP

http://hoopshype.com/2015/12/30/nba-free-agency-2017-the-top-players/

We have to build our own team--really on FA with 30 other teams its going to be hard. It will be lets wait until 2017 and then we still get nothing.

I agree we should assume we have to build it ourselves internally, but the good teams are open for both. To me overpaying is fine, but only for impact talent. Look at how SA manages the cap. Do they EVER overpay for role player? No.. they will let them go, and what happens? They can add a guy like Aldridge when the chance surfaces. Look at how Carrol will mess up Toronto's cap. You just don't give big money to the role player unless you are competing for a title and you are already totally capped out. Crabbe might have upside, he might be middle of the road. There is nothing eye popping about him as a player. Shelling out $12-$15mm to wrest him from Por is just bad business. Look at the FA list. I am find with being patient and finding my own Crabbes and having them under rookie deals for 4 years.

Well said, Fish. I see where Briggs and some of the fellas are coming from but I'm 100% with what you're saying here. And good example with SA and how they run things. You're 100% spot on -- that team NEVER overspends on the wrong players. 100% accurate that we can go find our own Allen Crabbes somewhere else for far less if $14-15mm a pop is truly that guy's number. Solomon Hill winds up getting half that amount, probably even less than that, and I like that dude's entire game and upside better than Crabbe's -- and I like Crabbe.

fishmike wrote:

martin wrote:

BRIGGS wrote:

Knixkik wrote:

BRIGGS wrote:Jus think about this---Allen Crabbe just turned 24 and he lead all of the NBA players in efg in the playoffs for a team that was very close to beating GS.
He's just going to get better. I think hes like a young Allan Houston. Hes the same size as Allan hes got a very similar touch. If you start to really think about it if we are going to spend money--first we have to OUTSPEND the rest of the NBA and Portland and it might have to have shock value. I look at our team and the nBA and we lack great outside shooting--and I think for pennies on the dollar(in terms of total cap)--we can go out and put big offers out there for Curry and Crabbe.

I agree. We have to take some chances somewhere. If we are going to take chances, we should do it on young players with good outside shots. We need to gamble on upside and fit, and these players hit on both criteria.

Knik--thats my absolute same thought process. Its pretty simple--I know Curry and Crabbe are good players who will help the team by extending the floor aT a MINIMUM---upside of both--well I really willing to bet on it. Im willing to take risk that I have better players here--but its going to take financial aggression.

How about this angle: WOuld you be willing to put in money to both of them to the point where you completely shut yourself out of the Market for 2017 free agents?

that is why its a dead no.

Agreed. Some FA crops are worth overspending in and some aren't. I don't think this one is. Doesn't mean we can't still target players that fit, upgrades, players with upside and plenty of NBA life left in them. We can. Those guys are out there.

fishmike wrote:overspending on role players hoping they become more than they are is just as bad as trading picks. The Knicks are a 37 win team. You phuck up the cap and it really hurts your chance to grow. The best run teams do this. Show me some examples of guys who were overpaid for and popped into the high end rotation or all star types you are hoping for. Its just a bad bad bet.

Great insight, man. Completely agree. Can't really add anything to this -- you're 100% spot on. 100% how I feel as well.

fishmike wrote:overspending on role players hoping they become more than they are is just as bad as trading picks. The Knicks are a 37 win team. You phuck up the cap and it really hurts your chance to grow. The best run teams do this. Show me some examples of guys who were overpaid for and popped into the high end rotation or all star types you are hoping for. Its just a bad bad bet.

re: wesley matthews. what a horrible signing that was

BRIGGS wrote:

fishmike wrote:overspending on role players hoping they become more than they are is just as bad as trading picks. The Knicks are a 37 win team. You phuck up the cap and it really hurts your chance to grow. The best run teams do this. Show me some examples of guys who were overpaid for and popped into the high end rotation or all star types you are hoping for. Its just a bad bad bet.

fishmike--thats old school. You're not understanding the cap. A contract for 14mm is like a contract for 8mm the previous year. Would you pay 8mm per for an up and coming player who lead all NBA players in eFG in the playoffs for a team that nearly knocked off the champions? A guy who proved to be a double digit scorer with high efficiency at the age of 23? We have C Early who at the age of 25 cant play well in the D league.

You're talking player valuation and you know what? I think you're right on as far as what these guys may get. Feels accurate, esp. with the cap expanding the way it is. I don't think anyone's disputing that part of it. What Fish is trying to say and which I happen to agree with -- those two are basically role players. To sink that amount of money into two role players (along with the sizeable amount we just gave Robin Lopez--a good player but essentially another role player), as decent as they are, may not be advisable in the long run. Could come back to bite us -- in fact, I think it would. We might be better off playing it cooler for now, maybe looking to retool with some lower-cost/equally potent upside-type talent (those guys are out there -- and I'm not even talking 1 yr stopgaps -- I'm talking young players with upside that fit and could be here for awhile) while maintaining some financial flexibility moving forward.

I'm fearful that if we overestimate this crop of FAs and dole out too much money this summer, we could dig ourselves another big hole that'll take years to climb out of. Been there, done that too many times to count now, right? We've cornered the market on doing that in fact, more than any other team, going back years now.

wargames wrote:

BRIGGS wrote:

fishmike wrote:overspending on role players hoping they become more than they are is just as bad as trading picks. The Knicks are a 37 win team. You phuck up the cap and it really hurts your chance to grow. The best run teams do this. Show me some examples of guys who were overpaid for and popped into the high end rotation or all star types you are hoping for. Its just a bad bad bet.

fishmike--thats old school. You're not understanding the cap. A contract for 14mm is like a contract for 8mm the previous year. Would you pay 8mm per for an up and coming player who lead all NBA players in eFG in the playoffs for a team that nearly knocked off the champions? A guy who proved to be a double digit scorer with high efficiency at the age of 23? We have C Early who at the age of 25 cant play well in the D league.

I have to agree here. A 14 Mil contract is not what it use to be. It'll be about 12% of the overall team cap space. 10% on a starter with potential is not that horrible at all. Especially for a player who provides something the team really needs. Outside shooting and defense at the guard position.

So, just math-wise, cap next year $92M, a $14M salary will be 15% or more of cap.

Over the past month, Crabbe has shot 54 percent overall, including 49 percent from deep, and has emerged as an all-around crunch-time weapon for the Trail Blazers. He is more comfortable attacking off the bounce once Damian Lillard or C.J. McCollum kicks to him, and his footwork on defense has improved massively since the first few weeks of the season. He isn't close to a stopper, and he is undersized as a small forward when Terry Stotts slides him there, but Crabbe is bouncing on his toes and is capable of helping inside, closing out on a shooter and keeping that guy in front of him.

The lineup of Lillard, McCollum, Crabbe, Aminu and Mason Plumlee is becoming a fourth-quarter staple.

I'd rather make a 2-3 year mistake deal on a young guy like Crabbe than an Afflalo type that is on the downside of his career.

wargames wrote:

martin wrote:

wargames wrote:

BRIGGS wrote:

fishmike wrote:overspending on role players hoping they become more than they are is just as bad as trading picks. The Knicks are a 37 win team. You phuck up the cap and it really hurts your chance to grow. The best run teams do this. Show me some examples of guys who were overpaid for and popped into the high end rotation or all star types you are hoping for. Its just a bad bad bet.

fishmike--thats old school. You're not understanding the cap. A contract for 14mm is like a contract for 8mm the previous year. Would you pay 8mm per for an up and coming player who lead all NBA players in eFG in the playoffs for a team that nearly knocked off the champions? A guy who proved to be a double digit scorer with high efficiency at the age of 23? We have C Early who at the age of 25 cant play well in the D league.

I have to agree here. A 14 Mil contract is not what it use to be. It'll be about 12% of the overall team cap space. 10% on a starter with potential is not that horrible at all. Especially for a player who provides something the team really needs. Outside shooting and defense at the guard position.

So, just math-wise, cap next year $92M, a $14M salary will be 15% or more of cap.

And the year after that it should be around 110 million making a 12 million dollar contract aroun 10% going forward

LOL, you keep changing up the numbers. We were talking about a $14M contract, not $12, right? $14M contract, with 8% raise (is that what you can get?) is still right about 14% of the cap the following year.

GodSaveTheKnicks wrote:Haven't read through the entire thread yet but this is what Zach Lowe posted on Crabbe earlier in Dec:

Over the past month, Crabbe has shot 54 percent overall, including 49 percent from deep, and has emerged as an all-around crunch-time weapon for the Trail Blazers. He is more comfortable attacking off the bounce once Damian Lillard or C.J. McCollum kicks to him, and his footwork on defense has improved massively since the first few weeks of the season. He isn't close to a stopper, and he is undersized as a small forward when Terry Stotts slides him there, but Crabbe is bouncing on his toes and is capable of helping inside, closing out on a shooter and keeping that guy in front of him.

The lineup of Lillard, McCollum, Crabbe, Aminu and Mason Plumlee is becoming a fourth-quarter staple.

I'd rather make a 2-3 year mistake deal on a young guy like Crabbe than an Afflalo type that is on the downside of his career.

Afflalo is and was a stop gap. If he stinks it doesn't hurt you. Worst case is he opts in this year. Worst case for Crab is your paying a guy $15mm per and he's not as good as Lance Thomas was, and that is entirely possible.