Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:Just out of curiosity I checked Melo vs harden PER stats and Melo is clearly in a tier above. Hard is a more efficient scorer once he gets his shot off, but his are bloated... 50% more than than Melo. He assists more being a guard but Melo Rebs more. Not all stats are created even... So do tell me how your painting the picture that harden is clearly better than melo

No, that's why I said *most*. In regression models, PER performs the worst because it gives too much weight to volume scoring. (You only have to shoot above 31% - then the more shots you take, the more your PER goes up.) All of the well-validated advanced stats (meaning stat models that actually predict team performance well) put Harden above Melo though.

CrushAlot wrote:

dk7th wrote:

gunsnewing wrote:Dk I love what you bring to the table as far as insight into advance statistics and we agree on a lot of things specifically the importance of team chemistry which this team lacks in drones but it is often clouded by your crusade against Melo. It doesn't help that others egg you on instead of just ignoring you because then your exaggeration only get worse.

With that said I rather the Knicks not max out an aging Melo. With Phil in the mix we will have plenty of other more viable options that will help the the New York Knicks

i don't know about this crusade against melo. i just don't want the knicks to overpay a second time for him. i put a reasonable figure for him at 12-13 million. will you give me a specific figure? seems like nobody wants to volunteer a specific range which is weird to me.

actually no, fishmike said melo should be paid the max-- yet not even melo agrees with that since he has stated he is willing to take a pay cut.

maybe a figure of 17 million was put out there but i can't remember. that is way too much.

i like statistics and participating in the game thread against the celtics this past week was fun too. i said i was going to see how many bad shots he took and i counted ten. did they win? yes. can they afford to play that way in the playoffs? no. and they should be using these games as a tuneup to hone the team concept for an entire 48 minutes-- but they didn't. i may start participating on more of them as the season winds down.

unfortunately most of the nastier posters didn't participate in that thread and one that did said my poisonous observations were not welcome there either. oh well

point is i have been accused of not watching the games and therefore i lack the ability to judge a player. this is nonsense. my eyeballs are just fine they just are informed, as always, by the goal of being a legitimate title contender which the knicks have not been since melo came here and at too high a price.

so again i ask-- how much should melo be paid to play in a knick uniform?

A couple of things in regards to your game watching. You post the same stuff no matter what has happened in games so it gives the appearance that you don't watch. Also, you might want to refrain from posting things like, I will watch games when the Knicks are worth my time if you want people to have the impression that you watch games.
Congratulations on participating in a game thread.
In regards to Melo's deal I think if he is staying he probably starts around 18-19 million because he said he would take less. However, I think he gets the max if it is a condition on his staying and I think he gets the max if he leaves.

ugh. i am not asking you to make a prediction about how much he will get i am asking you to tell me how much YOU think he should be paid!

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

dk7th wrote:

gunsnewing wrote:Dk I love what you bring to the table as far as insight into advance statistics and we agree on a lot of things specifically the importance of team chemistry which this team lacks in drones but it is often clouded by your crusade against Melo. It doesn't help that others egg you on instead of just ignoring you because then your exaggeration only get worse.

With that said I rather the Knicks not max out an aging Melo. With Phil in the mix we will have plenty of other more viable options that will help the the New York Knicks

i don't know about this crusade against melo. i just don't want the knicks to overpay a second time for him. i put a reasonable figure for him at 12-13 million. will you give me a specific figure? seems like nobody wants to volunteer a specific range which is weird to me.

actually no, fishmike said melo should be paid the max-- yet not even melo agrees with that since he has stated he is willing to take a pay cut.

maybe a figure of 17 million was put out there but i can't remember. that is way too much.

i like statistics and participating in the game thread against the celtics this past week was fun too. i said i was going to see how many bad shots he took and i counted ten. did they win? yes. can they afford to play that way in the playoffs? no. and they should be using these games as a tuneup to hone the team concept for an entire 48 minutes-- but they didn't. i may start participating on more of them as the season winds down.

unfortunately most of the nastier posters didn't participate in that thread and one that did said my poisonous observations were not welcome there either. oh well

point is i have been accused of not watching the games and therefore i lack the ability to judge a player. this is nonsense. my eyeballs are just fine they just are informed, as always, by the goal of being a legitimate title contender which the knicks have not been since melo came here and at too high a price.

so again i ask-- how much should melo be paid to play in a knick uniform?

Yeah, the idea that watching the game and looking at the stats are mutually exclusive is put forth by people who don't understand the stats or the game.

I know I don't don't understand them. Thems numburs too complicated for me. That's why I just side with the coaches, fans, writers and Gms just to keep my opinions mainstream.

That's understandable but they have little clue how much players are worth. That's why there's almost no correlation between payroll and salary. That may change with the increasing use of advanced metrics but up to now, GMs, fans, etc. truly have not been able to figure out how much players are worth. Almost all of what they pay for is just PPG.

Probably because that's the stat that determines who wins. Sometimes the mot obvious is just that

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:Just out of curiosity I checked Melo vs harden PER stats and Melo is clearly in a tier above. Hard is a more efficient scorer once he gets his shot off, but his are bloated... 50% more than than Melo. He assists more being a guard but Melo Rebs more. Not all stats are created even... So do tell me how your painting the picture that harden is clearly better than melo

No, that's why I said *most*. In regression models, PER performs the worst because it gives too much weight to volume scoring. (You only have to shoot above 31% - then the more shots you take, the more your PER goes up.) All of the well-validated advanced stats (meaning stat models that actually predict team performance well) put Harden above Melo though.

Actually they dont. Why aren't you being honest?

I just looked at the win shares, wins produced, and per 100 possession #s for both this year and their careers. Harden came out way above Melo each time. What well validated advanced stats are you referring to?

obviously the ones that reward volume shooting. how else could melo be on a par with harden?

Marcala12 wrote:

dk7th wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:Just out of curiosity I checked Melo vs harden PER stats and Melo is clearly in a tier above. Hard is a more efficient scorer once he gets his shot off, but his are bloated... 50% more than than Melo. He assists more being a guard but Melo Rebs more. Not all stats are created even... So do tell me how your painting the picture that harden is clearly better than melo

No, that's why I said *most*. In regression models, PER performs the worst because it gives too much weight to volume scoring. (You only have to shoot above 31% - then the more shots you take, the more your PER goes up.) All of the well-validated advanced stats (meaning stat models that actually predict team performance well) put Harden above Melo though.

Actually they dont. Why aren't you being honest?

I just looked at the win shares, wins produced, and per 100 possession #s for both this year and their careers. Harden came out way above Melo each time. What well validated advanced stats are you referring to?

obviously the ones that reward volume shooting. how else could melo be on a par with harden?

Harden averaging - 24.7 points, 5.6 assists, 4.7 rebounds, .455% from the floor, .352% from 3, .855% from the line, 1.5 steals, .4 blocks
Melo averaging - 28 points, 3.1 assists, 8.3 rebounds, .454% from the floor, .415% from 3, .841% from the line, 1.2 steals, .7 blocks

In what world are Melo's stats not on par with Harden you troll F ?? who has a better squad to play with? these guys play totally different positions, and yet any rational person would see that they're similarly valuable. They're both top 10 players. And defensively, this year, Melo has been better. you're a joke dude.

chill out. harden takes 16.5 shots and scores 24.7, and makes 1.50 points per shot. melo takes 22 shots to score 28, meaning he makes 1.24 points per shot.

22 shots is too many shots. melo is a "volume shooter." harden at 16.5 is not. no player should be taking more than 18 shots a game.

harden has an elite TS% of .608 meaning that he does not hurt his team as a scorer. melo at a mediocre .561 TS% has a neutral effect, but when that goes down in the playoffs, as it always has, his scoring will hurt the team.

melo's usage is 32.7 but his assist rate is a paltry 15.4. that's a chemistry-killing ratio.

For instance, if an offensive player has a high performing PG passing him the ball in ideal spots ....he will have a greater chance of success than an offensive players who gets the ball in less optimal spits.

Bonn1997 wrote:

foosballnick wrote:Perhaps Melo takes 6 more shots per game and this amounts to 3 more points per game because his teammates are performing at an inferior rate than Harden's and Melo draws a more difficult defensive assignment on average. It is difficult to compare individual stats of players at different positions and in different offensive systems in a kinetic team game and use those stats as some sort of bible for value. A more valuable model would be to assign a value or efficiency number for each player on a team and factor that in when ranking an individual performer.

For instance, if an offensive player has a high performing PG passing him the ball in ideal spots ....he will have a greater chance of success than an offensive players who gets the ball in less optimal spits.

In his 11 years, Melo has never performed at the efficiency Harden performs at.

Without context this statement is hollow. Perhaps A pg should be more efficient than a 3. Harden was a back-up on a stacked OKC team and also has a better supporting cast than Melo currently. Melo played one year in Denver with a superior lineup.
Also, perhaps based on what Melo is asked to do in the flow of the offense, he will be less efficient. My point which you seemed to have ignored is that you can not take isolated metrics and apply them with accuracy without liking at influencing factors. These guys do not perform in a vacuum.

foosballnick wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

foosballnick wrote:Perhaps Melo takes 6 more shots per game and this amounts to 3 more points per game because his teammates are performing at an inferior rate than Harden's and Melo draws a more difficult defensive assignment on average. It is difficult to compare individual stats of players at different positions and in different offensive systems in a kinetic team game and use those stats as some sort of bible for value. A more valuable model would be to assign a value or efficiency number for each player on a team and factor that in when ranking an individual performer.

For instance, if an offensive player has a high performing PG passing him the ball in ideal spots ....he will have a greater chance of success than an offensive players who gets the ball in less optimal spits.

In his 11 years, Melo has never performed at the efficiency Harden performs at.

Without context this statement is hollow. Perhaps A pg should be more efficient than a 3. Harden was a back-up on a stacked OKC team and also has a better supporting cast than Melo currently. Melo played one year in Denver with a superior lineup.
Also, perhaps based on what Melo is asked to do in the flow of the offense, he will be less efficient. My point which you seemed to have ignored is that you can not take isolated metrics and apply them with accuracy without liking at influencing factors. These guys do not perform in a vacuum.

He can be more efficient on this team. If you watch each possession, you would easily see that the ball sticks too much and he should be passing more instead of hoisting up contesting shots.

5 assists a game based on his usage rate would be a walk in the park.

Melo is having a solid year and more efficient then other years (mostly because of his 3 point shooting efficiency) but we can all still be impartial about where he can improve. If you trust your teammates, they will have more confidence in their play.

mreinman wrote:

foosballnick wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

foosballnick wrote:Perhaps Melo takes 6 more shots per game and this amounts to 3 more points per game because his teammates are performing at an inferior rate than Harden's and Melo draws a more difficult defensive assignment on average. It is difficult to compare individual stats of players at different positions and in different offensive systems in a kinetic team game and use those stats as some sort of bible for value. A more valuable model would be to assign a value or efficiency number for each player on a team and factor that in when ranking an individual performer.

For instance, if an offensive player has a high performing PG passing him the ball in ideal spots ....he will have a greater chance of success than an offensive players who gets the ball in less optimal spits.

In his 11 years, Melo has never performed at the efficiency Harden performs at.

Without context this statement is hollow. Perhaps A pg should be more efficient than a 3. Harden was a back-up on a stacked OKC team and also has a better supporting cast than Melo currently. Melo played one year in Denver with a superior lineup.
Also, perhaps based on what Melo is asked to do in the flow of the offense, he will be less efficient. My point which you seemed to have ignored is that you can not take isolated metrics and apply them with accuracy without liking at influencing factors. These guys do not perform in a vacuum.

He can be more efficient on this team. If you watch each possession, you would easily see that the ball sticks too much and he should be passing more instead of hoisting up contesting shots.

5 assists a game based on his usage rate would be a walk in the park.

Melo is having a solid year and more efficient then other years (mostly because of his 3 point shooting efficiency) but we can all still be impartial about where he can improve. If you trust your teammates, they will have more confidence in their play.

Very true but I think its very hard to have a high TS on that much usage unless you are Durant, James, Jordan, and etc. He is also recovering from a horrid 1st month that tanks his numbers but he put those numbers on the table, so it is what it is. I can see him closing the season at a TS% around 57 or 58 baring injury if his Late March/April campaigns continue. That's a big if because it looks like since he had his little sickness his legs are gone.

Back to your point, Melo is a good enough passer to really avg 5 ast in the 1st half. It would help if stat keepers accurately track some of his ast though. Not a huge deal but it happens I notice. I wonder how much it happens to everyone. Last game they gave Felton an ast instead of Melo on Shump's jumper. By the way, I am not claiming bias against Melo, I wonder how much it happens around the league.

fishmike wrote:its really just three guys that jump on every thread. One of them used to be a moderator @ realGM Knick forum and was banned because he couldnt stop trashing Melo at every turn. Now he does it here. Guys a great player. You dont go to what? 8 all star games have 6 visits to the all NBA teams and suck, contrary to what their advanced stats showing true shooting %s on the 3rd Tuesdays of the month may show.

Dont sweat it good sir.. Knicks are playing inspired ball, Melo just won player of the week and Phil Jackson is going to run the Knicks. Its an interesting time. Enjoy. I am

I find it funny you just can't get over me calling you a flip flopping diva.. and honestly that is what you are...

Again as far as realgm, I no longer post on the knicks board, because of choice. You have no clue what went on there and I find it odd that you are so worried about what happened on real gm..
focus on this site, and the fact that we are hopefully soon to be rid of this fat, loser known as carmelo.. yes it is great that PJ is here, and hopefully he ships out that loser...

in the end, carmelo remains a loser and you a flip flopper... doesn't matter what happened on any other site.. those things remain the same..

CrushAlot wrote:

dk7th wrote:

Marcala12 wrote:i think the board is solid. there are a few well spoken Melo haters who are delusional trolls, and there are some over the top Lin Lovers, but 90% of people are on point. Don't let dk/tk/playa ruin the rest of the board for you. DK said Melo and Gallo should get paid around the same $$$, lol. don't let someone so clueless and agenda driven have any impact on your user experience; he's not worth it. In case you need more evidence of that, see his wonderful "IQ post" in this thread. Don't even give him a second thought; he doesn't deserve it.

yeah you're entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

gallinari is being paid the amount that a 2.5 to 3rd option should be paid as a team on building towards contention. denver has been rebuilding and at 10.1 million is a good value for the price. his value lies in his completeness. he excels at drawing fouls and decision-making but in every other facet of the game is merely slightly above average. but as with synergy in a team we can have players who have a certain "internal" or "individual" synergy that nonetheless translates to team success. I believe that Denver is a much more successful team with Gallinari out there. obviously he could end up a casualty of history but as it is he still has a good future if he can manage to maintain his health. ujiri took a chance here and so far it has not been a success due to injury not lack of value if healthy. again ujiri took that chance.

i have asserted that melo is also a 2.5 to 3rd option on a title contending team-- much data and his infamy for playoff failure backs this up-- therefore he has been vastly overpaid while a knick. so when i say he is worth 12-13 million it is bearing in mind it is as a knick wherein he was vastly overpaid in the first place.

do you understand? if you don't then feel free to ask me to clarify where you are confused.

as you know when i don't understand something i don't hurl personal insults... i ask probing questions that either go unanswered or if answered are filled with misdirection that i am then compelled to point out.

I think you are way off in saying Melo is a 2.5-3rd option. The guy is considered top 5 or 10 in the league. Gallo has missed over 40 % of the games he could play in since being drafted. Not a big value there in my opinion.

outside of knicks fans, who considers him that?