TheGame wrote:

Knixkik wrote:One underrated advantage to trading for Sexton now is you can hold off on an extension and basically have this summer and next summer (with his cap hold) to improve the team prior to an extension. You basically get a major piece without sacrificing significant cap space right away. I am of the opinion that with Mitch, randle, and eventually Barrett extensions coming, cap space will need to be used over the next 2 summers or it will be gone regardless.

You make a good point but is Sexton really that much better than Rose. If we can resign Rose for $13-$14 million, then you have IQ, we can move up in the draft for a PG, and we have Luca who is a 24 year old in prime with a few years of professional experience. You do that and you still have Obi to use in a future trade. If Sexton was a better defender, then maybe but you make this trade then you are locking yourself into paying Sexton the max or close to the max at some point and I don’t know that he is ever going to be that guy.

Luca is 25 and might not even make the team. His contract is very team friendly. Its a tryout.
IQ objectively is not super fast, not great defender, and is not that guy yet. He is young and could be. But not certain.
YOu might be right. If Luca and IQ are killing it they are trade fodder for value. Or go a year or two and Sexton could be as well. I like your take and I’m good with it. The energy Obi bought to the court vs. Hawks could be a preview of things to come. If randle can keep his trade value up I’m ok moving him in two years. Lots of ways to develop a team. Have to cut bait from time to time as well.

And for those of you that want to only focus on this 3 point shooting numbers please also highlight his rim and mid-range numbers that come from relentlessly attaching a defense while talking about his pesky defense via steals and how he barely ever turns the ball over. Dude has an eFG% of 57% last year while not being a dunker.

For me TJ is like the PG passing version of Rose without any 3pt shooting ability.

Dude barely ever shoots from beyond 16 feet but these are really good numbers

2P 	0-3 	3-10 	10-16 	16-3P 	3P
.586	.654	.545	.554	.524	.313	

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Collin Sexton is polarizing.

On one hand, Sexton, who won’t turn 23 until January, is one of the league’s premier young scorers.

This past season, a year after being named a Rising Star, he averaged career-bests in points (24.3) and field goal percentage (47.5) while nudging his way into the All-Star conversation. Sexton also made promising strides as a secondary playmaker, averaging 4.4 assists and boosting that to 6.1 during Darius Garland’s late-season injury absence.

Despite silly chatter to the contrary, players with Sexton’s three-level scoring package aren’t easy to find. A list of guys 22 or younger to average more than 24 points while also boasting a true shooting percentage of at least 57 percent shows just 20 names throughout NBA history, including Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, Michael Jordan, Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Zion Williamson, and a cluster of other future Hall-of-Famers and past or current All-Stars. Pretty good company there.

Sexton’s unique burst allows him to blow by defenders and explode to the rim. His improved 3-point shot keeps the defense honest, no longer able to go under screens like early in his career.

The third-year guard is also a relentless worker and feisty competitor. Head coach J.B. Bickerstaff and other teammates have repeatedly called him a “great kid” -- even if Sexton’s playing style can be frustrating at times.

During his rookie season, teammates chirped about whether he knew how to play, wondered why he was getting so many minutes and scoffed at the top-to-bottom organizational support. He’s had four different head coaches and 52 teammates. He’s changed positions to better accommodate Garland, learning to become an away-from-the-ball threat. Been unfairly criticized for things out of his control. Played with crummy teammates and dreadful court spacing. And, yet, through it all Sexton’s not only persevered but he’s progressed as a player, identified his flaws and corrected them each season -- as the No. 1 scoring option with defenses focused on him.

A lesser guy would have broken. He’s the kind of player -- and person -- that’s worth betting on.

On the other hand, Sexton is an outlier.

He’s not a point guard. The Cavaliers front office made that admission a few years ago, using the fifth pick in 2019 on Garland, who members of the organization believe has blossomed into the most promising of the young core and is extension-eligible in 2022. Sexton, an undersized shooting guard, has clear defensive limitations that are even more exposed when paired in the backcourt with Garland -- the two of them together limiting the team’s ceiling. At 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds, Sexton lacks the size, strength and length to bother wings. Even though effort isn’t an issue, he still doesn’t have a great grasp on how to properly navigate screens, leading to breakdowns at the point of attack that often cause the remaining defenders to scramble.

If there are areas to nitpick on offense, it starts with his shot profile. Even the Cavs have stayed in his ear about taking less mid-range jumpers and more 3-pointers. According to Cleaning the Glass, he is in the bottom six percent of guards in 3-point rate. There’s also been plenty of judgment about his tunnel vision, over-dribbling, pick-and-roll reads and passing. His advanced numbers -- PER (Player Efficiency Rating), VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), BPM (Box Plus-Minus), Win Shares -- are unappealing, leading to plenty of questions about whether Sexton makes teams better. His release could be quicker. His handle could tighten. People around the league believe he would best fit on a stable, contending team. His game has been called “ugly.” He probably shouldn’t be the focal point of an offense.

All of that, combined with impending contract extension talks that are unlikely to align in value, has led to Sexton being “very available” this offseason. At this point, it seems to be more than the usual due diligence and market value exploration.

After years of assembling assets and building through the draft, the Cavs are almost at the point where it’s time to place a tangible, monetary value on Sexton, which could limit financial flexibility into the future. This is when mistakes threaten to cripple progress, cost jobs and have a lasting impact. Giving him a rookie-scale max that could reach $168 million over five years is dangerous. Wouldn’t it be easier to let someone else make that decision?

The Cavs still like Sexton and believe in him. Sources say they’ve put a hefty price tag on him, which could make a deal challenging, and The Athletic identified the New York Knicks as the “most aggressive” trade suitor on Tuesday. The New York Post confirmed Sexton as a player on the Knicks’ radar, even saying he would’ve been their draft pick three years ago had Cleveland not nabbed him one slot earlier.

Cleveland and New York have discussed possibilities, sources say, and it’s an obvious potential trade destination. The Knicks are one of many teams monitoring the situation.

A surprising playoff party crasher this past season, the Knicks ranked 22nd in offensive efficiency during the regular season -- and those struggles became their undoing in the postseason, ranking second-last among 16 qualifiers. Sexton would give them a needed shot-creator, someone to take pressure off Most Improved Player Julius Randle, especially with guards Elfrid Payton, Derrick Rose, Frank Ntilikina and Alec Burks headed for free agency.

Sexton is a client of CAA, the agency that Knicks president Leon Rose ran until last season, and is also well-known by former Cavaliers executive Brock Aller, who was in Cleveland when decision-makers fell in love with Sexton following an eye-popping pre-draft workout.

But what kind of package could New York assemble?

The Cavs were smitten with RJ Barrett ahead of the 2019 draft. They even tried trading up a few spots, sources say. Barrett is reportedly not viewed as untouchable, considered a potential trade centerpiece if the Knicks go star hunting. Coming off a strong sophomore season in which the 21-year-old averaged 17.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.8 assists while hitting 40.1% from 3-point range and started all 72 games, it’s hard to see the Knicks parting with him for Sexton -- and then agreeing to give Sexton a massive contract.

Power forward Obi Toppin, a player Cleveland considered at No. 5 before choosing Isaac Okoro in the draft last November, doesn’t make much sense for a team that already has more than $40 million invested in Larry Nance Jr. and Kevin Love and could be adding Evan Mobley with the third pick in a few weeks. The Knicks do have a pair of 2021 first-rounders (Nos. 19 and 21), but those are sweeteners as opposed to headliners of a deal. So, who else? Reclamation project Knox? Even packaging all three together would give the Cavs essentially a trio of backups for Sexton.

Think about it more and the Knicks don’t make for the ideal trade partner. Unless Barrett is involved, sending Sexton to New York would be Cleveland making a lateral move -- or perhaps taking a step backward.

In a vacuum, other potential landing spots -- Miami, New Orleans, Indiana and the Los Angeles Lakers -- have pitfalls as well. It’s not easy to find teams that need a player with Sexton’s skill set, have the trade assets and would be willing to pay him. Unless, of course, the Sexton deal grows into a bigger blockbuster, stacking him with any combination of Love’s bulky salary, a future draft pick, Taurean Prince’s expiring contract or highly coveted Larry Nance Jr. The Cavs, of course, would prefer to shed Love in a Sexton swap.

Knixkik wrote:One underrated advantage to trading for Sexton now is you can hold off on an extension and basically have this summer and next summer (with his cap hold) to improve the team prior to an extension. You basically get a major piece without sacrificing significant cap space right away. I am of the opinion that with Mitch, randle, and eventually Barrett extensions coming, cap space will need to be used over the next 2 summers or it will be gone regardless.

I agree with this.
There are so many good reasons to trade for Sexton.
He's young, he's already proven the makings of a player that could create his own shot and score some points when plays are broken - he's opportunistic and thinks he can take his man 1-on-1. And he's still on a rookie contract. The only guard (or player) on the Knicks that can give the Knicks the things that Sexton does is Rose.

What he's not:
Definitely not a polished floor general, at this phase of his career. He won't necessarily make his teammates better, certainly not the way a polished general might (CP3 or Lowry). But I don't know of any young up-and-coming PGs really do that.
There are those that doubt he's really a PG and say he's small for a SG. Everyone wants a redo of the Ntilikina draft and wishes we picked Donovan Mitchell, who is also 6'1" and isn't exactly a PG or SG. Yet we all think he's awesome.

So with all that said, he has value given that he's already a 20ppg type scorer. Given his cap-friendly contract, I'd assume Cleveland would probably want to use this trade to dump Olympian Kevin Love's contract - they could use that money to sign Jarrett "the Fro" Allen to a long term deal.

I can see a base trade of Obi/a couple of 1st rounders for Sexton/Love. Love hasn't been healthy for a few years now and he ruined my fantasy team last season, but if we can install him as a 3pt shooter and limit his minutes to keep his calves/achilles in order, he could still be a valuable perimeter shooting big man, something we didn't have last season. We can also rationalize veteran/championship experience.
Sexton would definitely make the Knicks better, though he'd need to continue to improve his defense a bit to really raise us to championship level.

I see Dame or CP3 as a whole nother stratosphere of acquisition, but those guys would need to really want to force their way to the Knicks.

smackeddog wrote:Not sure where people think we're getting young players who can shoot, drive, pass, defend at a high level, score but are unselfish, aren't undersized, fit perfectly with the rest of our players, have no injury issues and will sign for a good contract and will also either be unrestricted free agents so you don't have to give up any assets, or can be traded for without giving up major assets. Oh and can also be found in the next 2 offseason before we lose our cap space. Good luck!

Good post

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/BenRitholtz_NBA/status/1415277859610972166

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/BenRitholtz_NBA/status/1415280108785618944

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/BenRitholtz_NBA/status/1415283074250772482

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/BenRitholtz_NBA/status/1415337375576821770

smackeddog wrote:Not sure where people think we're getting young players who can shoot, drive, pass, defend at a high level, score but are unselfish, aren't undersized, fit perfectly with the rest of our players, have no injury issues and will sign for a good contract and will also either be unrestricted free agents so you don't have to give up any assets, or can be traded for without giving up major assets. Oh and can also be found in the next 2 offseason before we lose our cap space. Good luck!

You try to find those type of players in the draft. The system rewards teams who focus on the draft and draft well.

The salary system also functionally accommodates two max players on the roster at any given time. The question is do you want Sexton to be one of them? Because the natural pathway will be RJ Barrett and Sexton then as the teams two core players moving forward. That's not going to win the Knicks a championship. Which is fine as long as people understand that's the path the team will take if they move in that direction. Not every franchise has a championship as a goal. Some team owners are OK with a product that generates profit and keeps their fans mostly happy.

A draftee will come in and if he works out, he gives you many of his prime years. He is naturally implied to be on a good contract if he breaks out, since his production rate will be exponential to the cost control of the Rookie Scale Exception. The natural pathway to his cost certainty means you will garner his full Bird Rights without being forced into a trade to do it or lock up your cap space for three years with an expensive street free agent. You don't have to give up any major assets in most cases as draft picks are a renewable resource each year.

There is literally no problem you can't fix on any NBA team in any situation, no matter how dire, if you simply keep drafting well. It's the only team building dynamic where that statement is ever true.

Nearly all NBA teams now have fully staffed analytics departments filled with actual quality evaluators. That wasn't always true in the past. Sextons value will sink around the league if he gets to free agency. Sure, there will be some GMs desperate to save their jobs who might try to push for him, but the analytics department is the Stop sign for nearly every franchise now. If you go to Memphis, the owner and GM might talk about lots of things, but both have to look at Rich Cho and ask if the money is going to work or not. Leon Rose has to do the same thing with Brock Aller.

When a player like Sexton passes some of the eye test but not the deep dive analytics test, what that usually means is regression for such a player is like falling off a cliff. Tim Duncan and Steph Curry are types to decline in controlled stages. If Sexton loses a step ( to be fair, he's very explosive), he's in big trouble. In the middle of a five year max, that's a tough pill to swallow. The idea that there will be waves of teams begging to pick up Sexton for the max/heavy offer sheet is probably not the reality of the situation. Low BBIQ players do not magically turn into average or high BBIQ players. They just don't. It doesn't work that way. Some pundits will project Sexton is going to make another leap, but that's not very likely. Size and smarts are functional speed bumps that don't move very often.

Could the Knicks manage three max deals at once? Yes, the system allows it. But it's very difficult to maneuver and often it saps you of functional depth. Sweeping changes, over time, to the sign and trade, mid level exception, rookie scale, rules for defenders, how the league handles it's refs and devaluation of the big man position has created a salary bottleneck at the wing position. That ripples any team that wants to contend eventually into the repeater tax zone. The Knicks are a cash rich team, but when you lose cap flexibility ( as three maxes naturally implies), you are crushed eventually by the league salary structure in place.

The longer the Knicks wait, the cheaper the cost to acquire Sexton becomes.

BRIGGS wrote:What I remember about sexton against us was he was a smallish player who got engulfed by our size

He had to take on shooting guards because Garland couldn't. By all accounts his ball IQ on the defensive side is low too.

technomaster wrote:I can see a base trade of Obi/a couple of 1st rounders for Sexton/Love. Love hasn't been healthy for a few years now and he ruined my fantasy team last season, but if we can install him as a 3pt shooter and limit his minutes to keep his calves/achilles in order, he could still be a valuable perimeter shooting big man, something we didn't have last season. We can also rationalize veteran/championship experience.