Pepper wrote:
A. Theres no way the Knicks are keeping all of these picks. They are either moving up in the draft or going after a player.
Tier 1
Cunningham
Tier 2
Mobley
Jalen Green
Tier 3
Jalen Suggs
Tier 4
Jon Kuminga
Scottie Barnes
The the draft goes flat. Cunningham goes first overall no matter what. Whomever doesn't go 2nd overall of Green or Mobley gets picked third overall. Suggs is a virtual lock at 4th overall. Barnes might go 5th overall, but odds are it's Kuminga and if that's the case, it's close to a lock that Barnes goes 6th.
Then the draft goes very flat.
Tier 5 is 7th through 9th or 10th. Tier 6 could last another 12 picks.
The Knicks first pick is a Tier 6 pick, meaning it's pointless to trade up unless it's for the 7th through 9th selections. ( The methodology is to move up a tier, for example, the Warriors at 7th have a reason to trade up to 6th, but the Cavs have very little reason to trade up from 3rd overall to 2nd overall) NY doesn't have the trade capital to get into the top 6 picks of this draft. Tre Mann is projected via value for slot in the mid to late 20s.
Is there a convincing argument that the Warriors, Magic, Kings and Pelicans are apt to trade back?
If the Knicks want Tre Mann, odds are he'll be there at 19th, and if he's not, they are incentivized to move on and keep going down their target list instead of risking trading up in the same tier.
There is actually more incentive to TRADE BACK from 21 than to trade up. OKC owns 35 and 36. Toronto has 46 and 47. The Pelicans have four 2nd rounders. There will be some pretty damn interesting guys left even in the mid 40s.
If the Knicks are willing to fall back from 19, there is 23 and 24 from Houston. They could pick at 21 and 24 and try to trade 23. The difference of the guy you can pick at 24 and the guy you pick at 32 isn't that much of a gap.