Before we put a ceiling on RJ's career, let's put some perspective into this. I tend to look at RJ's young Duke wing brethren as career reference points for potential improvement: Ingram, Tatum
They're all wing players, top 3 high school recruits, 1 and done top 3 picks, all groomed by the same college experience.
Both Tatum and Ingram have gradually improved over time to look like max contract players, a testament to their work ethic. I'm optimistic RJ has similar DNA and upside as these two (he was definitely a more impressive player than Tatum in college, and very arguably more dominant than Ingram) and will continue to add more elements to his game over time.
Shooting percentages aside, RJ has tended to produce more rebounds/assists/pts than his Duke predecessors at the parallel points in their careers.
RJ's rookie shooting %s were remarkably similar to Ingram's:
RJ 40.2% FG / 61% FT / 32% 3pt%
BI 40.2% FG / 62% FT / 29% 3pt%
BI's year 5 numbers: 46% FG / 83% FT / 38% 3pt%
- - -
Scoring:
Here's what their scoring by year in their career looks like:
RJ: 14.3, 17.8
Tatum: 13.9, 15.7, 23.4, 26.9
Ingram: 9.4, 16.1, 18.3, 23.8, 22.9
All 3 of them showed progress, but it's interesting to see where Ingram and Tatum have had leaps at different points in their careers. (Ingram and Tatum both arrived as superstars last season)
FT Shooting:
From a shooting standpoint, Tatum has been at 80+% for his whole career - by far the most polished from the get-go. Ingram's FT% was in the 65+% range for his first 3 seasons, before becoming an 80+% FT shooter beginning last season carrying over into this. RJ finished his rookie year around 61%, and currently is at over 75%, while trending better than that over his last 5 games.
Tatum FTA's have fluctuated over his career, averaging 3.2 as a rookie, dipping to 2.9FTA in his 2nd season, peaking at 4.7FTA last year and 3.6FTA this season.
Ingram averaged 2.7 FTA as a rookie, 4.8 as a 2nd year player, then has averaged basically ~5+ FTA since.
RJ averaged 4.5FTA as a rookie, and is at 5.1FTA thus far this season.
3pt Shooting:
Like FT%, Tatum was excellent from the get-go, averaging 40+% over the course of his career. Ingram shot below 30% as a rookie, but has been 38%+ in 3 out of the last 4 years. RJ is by far the least evolved here. As a rookie, he shot 32% from 3, and endured a historically frigid stretch this season - he's been shooting well over his last 5, but in spite of this still sits at a .235%. (Poor 3pt shooting isn't a death sentence, even this aspect doesn't come together - Future HoFers Russell Westbrook and Dwyane Wade have had entire seasons where they shot WORSE!)
Assists:
Tatum has increased his assists each year, starting from 1.5 to 3.8 this season.
Ingram began with 2.1, and has averaged 4+apg for the past 2.
RJ started with 2.6, increasing to 3.5 this season.
Rebounding:
Tatum started at 5.0rpg as a rookie and has improved gradually - he's up to 7+rpg since last season.
Ingram averaged 4.0 as a rookie, but has averaged in the 5-6 range every year since.
RJ began with 5.5 and currently up to 7.3.
Steals and blocks:
Not much to look at here, none of these guys are exceptionally good at racking up steals or blocks. One thing to note (I'll need to see if I can find a datapoint for this), RJ doesn't usually end up credited with steals but when there's a deflection from a teammate, the ball often finds its way to his hands.
