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Barkley on Analytics
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dk7th
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2/11/2015  8:38 PM    LAST EDITED: 2/11/2015  8:39 PM
holfresh wrote:
mreinman wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
nixluva wrote:
holfresh wrote:
nixluva wrote:The Knicks will be using Analytics in their search for players to fill out the Starting Lineup this summer. They have to use everything at their disposal in order to put together the best team they can with their limited resources. Finding players who are efficient on both ends but will be affordable is going to be huge for this team. They actually have a full staff of men who are Metrics guys. The problem with the Knicks over the years has been Dolan's interference. Even tho Dolan says now that he believes in Advanced Analytics it his interference that works against anything good that could come of it. Perhaps now the team's staff can do their job without his meddling.

Owner James Dolan, in rehiring Steve Mills for a second stint with the team, told The Post’s Mike Vaccaro soon after the firing that Grunwald wasn’t well-versed in basketball’s new age of sabermetrics and technology, calling him “a classic GM.’’

Dolan didn’t mention Grunwald also has a law degree and formerly ran the Toronto Board of Trade.

“I think I’ve been one of the most involved in basketball’s advanced analytics since the late 1990s,’’ Grunwald told The Post via phone on the one-year anniversary of his dismissal. “I don’t agree with [Dolan]. Everyone is entitled to their opinion.’’

Many of those Grunwald hired have been kept around by new president Phil Jackson, but Dolan gave up on Mills as the Knicks’ leader in March. The bad karma of Dolan’s firing of Grunwald possibly spilled over into a miserable 37-45 season. Now Dolan is letting Jackson figure it out by himself. Grunwald never had the luxury.

Grunwald said. “What I’m very happy about is a lot of the front-office people [I hired], a lot of good people kept their jobs — Mike Smith, who is the analytics stats guy, who’s very good; [personnel director] John Gabriel; [director of basketball operations] Jamie Matthews. They’re all excellent at what they do. Phil always knew what it takes to win in the NBA and he’s got experienced people around him.’’

In addition Phil has Clarence Gaines Jr. who lobbied for Galloway and Mark Warkentien who is a metrics guy too. So the Knicks are all in on Metrics in terms of the staff Phil has around him bringing him the suggestions of who makes sense for this team. More importantly is how they apply this information to how they construct the team and how that player fits into how they want to play. It's got to be a comprehensive approach.

54 wins under Grunwald to 10 wins with the new saber-metrics regime..Impressive..


The current W/L record isn't how you should judge the prospects that they've brought in. Galloway is clearly a nice little find and can play in this system. To be fair they haven't actually finished building the team yet!!! This is the same false premise the media and some fans keep using to talk about this team. Everyone knew that the real team building was going to come from the Trade Deadline thru the summer and not the 1st half of this season.

They started with establishing the System and seeing who fits and then they cleared out some of the guys that didn't fit and that process will continue. It's the draft and Free Agency where they will really have a shot to get starting material for this team. It's a process and the more they continue to work at bringing in the right players that fit it should start to impact the W/L column. Right now the team is in need of starting talent but you have to give them a chance to actually shop first.

Woodson and Grunwald was quite successful with the roster they were given..They never got a chance to get "their players", yet they were successful..So now, I'm to believe we are on better footing because a system is in place and analytics will be used..54 to 10 isn't quite painting that picture..


Nixluva will always tell you the Knicks are in wonderful shape.
I don't think many people believe the Knicks now are currently using the metrics intelligently or that the current regime has shown good decision making.

So what am I to conclude since we were much more successful not using metrics..

successful? You keep riding the 54 yet you fail to realize how hollow that was.

We brought Kidd and the other geezers in here on terrible contracts. Kidd gave us half of a season and had us flying yet of course he crashed and burned and we crashed and burned. If he didn't retire then we would have been stuck with broken down kidd for another 2 years. This was like bringing in Amare @100Mil for .5 of a season of excitement.

Every new that that 54 win team was terribly build and was a short term success at best.

Are you really touting Grunwald as a good GM?

So if you can pick your team it would be Dolan->Grunwald->Woodson->Melo->Lottery->Trade-lott-for-Bargs

Oh ... and of course we had JR too. Who can ask for more?

The results were the results... U are what your record says you are...Ever heard that??

it's the jayvee season. playoffs is a whole different season-- past the first round, that is-- you've heard that?-- and is the true measure of a team.

knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%
AUTOADVERT
dk7th
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2/11/2015  8:46 PM
holfresh wrote:Of course it was unsustainable..Woodson and Grunwald got zero support from fans and management even after getting to the second round of the playoffs...

they were the oldest team in the league and fell apart. kidd was the real reason they succeeded in the regular season initially, and then after that prigioni... who that idiot woodson started playing only until it was very late in the campaign. then woodson gets outcoached in both rounds, just as his playoff history in prior seasons would easily predict. mike "second round annihilation" woodson. woodson was also quite lukewarm about jeremy lin, another damning bit of behavior. not head coaching material.

knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%
holfresh
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2/11/2015  9:18 PM
mreinman wrote:
holfresh wrote:Hey Bonn, would you say that Calderon might have been brought in because of metrics?

would you say that Bargs was brought in based on the eye test?

No..That's a head scratcher..I'm still trying to figure out we talking Bargs with Toronto when Lowry is also available..

mreinman
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2/11/2015  9:27 PM
holfresh wrote:
mreinman wrote:
holfresh wrote:Hey Bonn, would you say that Calderon might have been brought in because of metrics?

would you say that Bargs was brought in based on the eye test?

No..That's a head scratcher..I'm still trying to figure out we talking Bargs with Toronto when Lowry is also available..

the point is that if you are looking to uncover talent, there are two things you need to do:

1. find a player that has advanced efficiency with low usage
2. scout the player for body language, defense, intangibles
3. war room to present all the data
4. fight for a couple of days
5. have your GM make an educated decision based on all the data and arguments presented

After a player has been in the league, efficiency is often quite consistent.

Harden has a TS around 60 every year. Melo hovers about 55. Etc ... Manu has been flopping and getting foul calls his whole career. Melo will have 3 assists and 3 turnovers every year. Amare will have about a 4+: 1 USG to assist rate.

It always pays to be informed .... jocks are not smart and smart guys are usually not jocks ...

so here is what phil is thinking ....
holfresh
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2/11/2015  9:43 PM
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:Analytics is over hyped...Is there is place for it, maybe but it's not the end all be all...It's doesn't paint a complete picture of who a player is..U have to see a player play his game and try to determine how he fits with other pieces based on your style of play..How anaytics play a role in that I'm just not sure...

analytics becomes more accurate the larger the sample size... trends and patterns develop, and from there a reasonable level of predictable behaviors and performance. the "painting of a complete picture" emerges over time, the same way a higher pixilation reveals a sharper picture, or how the greater number of bytes of digital information continues to approximate an analog curve in recorded music.

no advanced metrics guy is going to have the stones to say that his numbers analysis is going to replace a seasoned eye, scientific method and pure mathematics should have a humbling effect. barkley, shaq, even smith can poo-poo the math all they want-- anything can be open to ridicule, even the facts.

You should know..u built a UK career on that...

dk7th
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2/11/2015  9:58 PM
holfresh wrote:
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:Analytics is over hyped...Is there is place for it, maybe but it's not the end all be all...It's doesn't paint a complete picture of who a player is..U have to see a player play his game and try to determine how he fits with other pieces based on your style of play..How anaytics play a role in that I'm just not sure...

analytics becomes more accurate the larger the sample size... trends and patterns develop, and from there a reasonable level of predictable behaviors and performance. the "painting of a complete picture" emerges over time, the same way a higher pixilation reveals a sharper picture, or how the greater number of bytes of digital information continues to approximate an analog curve in recorded music.

no advanced metrics guy is going to have the stones to say that his numbers analysis is going to replace a seasoned eye, scientific method and pure mathematics should have a humbling effect. barkley, shaq, even smith can poo-poo the math all they want-- anything can be open to ridicule, even the facts.

You should know..u built a UK career on that...

i don't mind being ridiculed by the right group of people. besides, u ask to get spanked u gonna git spanked.

knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%
Bonn1997
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2/12/2015  5:21 AM    LAST EDITED: 2/12/2015  5:29 AM
holfresh wrote:Hey Bonn, would you say that Calderon might have been brought in because of metrics?

He didn't look better than Tyson on any of the important metrics. So I doubt it. Everyone looking at the metrics thought it was a bad move while people using the eyeball test generally said losing Tyson was addition by subtraction and Calderon would really help. It depends on what you mean though. If you're talking about a half-assed, unintelligent use of the metrics, that could be the case. Our organization is a bad example to use. They make bad decisions whether using the eyeball test or advanced metrics.
Barkley on Analytics

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