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OT Egypt
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nykshaknbake
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2/3/2011  12:01 PM
Yeah I don't know what we could do to really get involved. It's really tough to even verbally endorse or condemn for fear of alienating who comes out on top. I don't however think that the people will prevent a despot or radical regime. As long as they get promised a better standard of living or the blame can be shifted to external enemies, power will be secured. That's just the way that region runs. You get a few people that impose their will in totality on everyone else. Hell if Mubarak starts massacring people they will fall in line. The people don't like it but centuries of political culture die hard.


SupremeCommander wrote:I understand the fears. But I think getting involved is bad for our brand right now. How is that democracy doing in Afghanistan? Our government succeeded here for unique cultural reasons. Without the appropriate social instituions a democracy is rather easy to subject to fraud. You vaote someone in and then they control the political economy, the police, and the armed forces. And that's it.

The root of these protests and demonstrations are so the people get what they want. I have faith that people risking their physical safety are not going to trade one guy's corrupt interests for another's. Whoever or whatever gets installed, will have to represent the consituency that is clamoring for a SIGNIFICANTLY bigger piece of the pie. I think letting it play out will result in a net gain.

(I do think its funny I got labelled a "liberal" before. I suppose I do put high value in people's welfare. But I am more libertarian as opposed to authoritarian in my governmental views. For the most part I want them to stay the eff out of my business and affairs. I mean, I'm a corporate whore for Christ's sake. I'm not saving the manitees)

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SupremeCommander
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2/3/2011  12:07 PM
nykshaknbake wrote:The people don't like it but centuries of political culture die hard.

+1

DLeethal wrote: Lol Rick needs a safe space
nykshaknbake
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2/3/2011  12:08 PM
As you said there may not be examples of non-suppressive muslim theocracies so while it may be possible it isn't probable. I think the culture just breeds that kind of government. I actually can't think of any non-suppressive muslim theocratic governments in history.

loweyecue wrote:
nykshaknbake wrote:Agreed that Egypt isn't a theocracy now. It's more of a traditional dictatorship. The fear is that it could become a Muslim theocracy when the dust settles. Much like the one in Iran. Not saying that is what will happen but if it does it will make the region even more volatile than it already is. Something in between maybe ideal maybe like Turkey has now where its basically a secular islamic state. Though more likley is that if the Muslim brotherhood takes over is that we have a radical regime that supresses all non-Muslims. I.e. Sudan, Iran.

SupremeCommander wrote:
nykshaknbake wrote:I don't think you can play equivalency between a democratic gov't and a Muslim theocracy. There may not be one right way but there are ways that clearly don't work at all and ways that have a negative impact. It's nice to think that every way is equally right and that if it doesn't seem so its because we don't see the whole picture or are conceited or ignorant. It's more than asset allocation though, but rather one of ideology and control of the people and speech.
SupremeCommander wrote:
simrud wrote:I would like to think that something good will come out of this, but history points in the other direction.

If the current regime does fall, there will be a power vacum. Only organization with capability to fill this vacum is the Muslim Brotherhood.

Now, some of you liberal folk will aruge that they are really a nice organization that does charity work etc., and I will not even bother to argue because it is a waste of time. I will just say one thing, everybody will regreat it for decades to come if they do in fact come to control Egypt or any other Arab country for that matter.

I don't agree with you one bit. You are assuming that there is a right way for the people to organize themselves. We have a democratic state. They have the Muslim religion. Our government promotes the separation of church and state. The Islamic people believe it is impossible to separate their religion from their actions.

The issue has absolutely nothing to do with relgion or being secular. What it has to do with is the alloction and distribution of assets and wealth. The lack of developed social institutions to promote a middle class. A lack of a functioning legal system and an enforcement system whose task it is to maintain status quo.

What does any of this has to do with how people worship and the value of their religion?

Okay, someone I can have a discussion with!

I disagree that Egypt is a Muslim theocracy. I'll start with that.

I do agree that you cannot make parallels between a democratic government and a theocracy. Our democracy was born from Christian feudalism. And how many centuries ago is that? The current pan-Arab system is antiquated and needs to be overhauled. I am not suggesting the status quo is appropriate, sufficient, or acceptable.

What I do believe is that a Western democracy is not the only answer. That opposite position is decidedly the antithesis of post-modern. What I am suggesting is you don't strip something as socially and culturally important as The Call to Worship from the lives of these people—as they are people. I am suggesting that the model or blue print that should be followed is Eastern, as countries like Japan modernized without completely acquiescing to "the Imperialists."

There are ways to fix the problem by focussing on the development of social institutions, as opposed to ripping the moral fabric from these people and replacing it with American denim

A muslim theocracy isn't by definition radical or suupressive but the ones in your example are. I don't know if there is a good example of a moderate muslim theocracy but would definitely think its possible. Clearly there is middle ground between dictatorship and democracy and it's up to these nations to find that. I hope they can get there peacefully through dialougue rather than through bloodshed, but there isn't any encouraging evidence to suggest that is possible.

PresIke
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2/3/2011  2:05 PM
SupremeCommander wrote:Excuse me for posting an article from the liberal media but, see, The People get loud enough and radical changes occur. When that happens self-governance has a way of rectifying the situation.

Egypt's prime minister apologizes and vows probe into violence
Cairo, Egypt (CNN) -- Egypt's new prime minister apologized repeatedly Thursday for the previous day's "catastrophe" in Cairo, blaming infiltrators and a "complete disappearance" of police for the human toll.

Interior Minister Habib Adli, whose office oversees Egypt's police forces, was among several former officials of President Hosni Mubarak's government whose assets were frozen, state-run television said. The officials have been banned from traveling outside the country.

The travel ban will remain in effect "until national security is restored and the authorities and monitoring bodies have undergone their investigations," Nile TV said.

Ahmed Shafiq, appointed prime minister last Saturday, pledged a thorough investigation into Wednesday's violence in Tahrir Square, the downtown Cairo plaza where the uprising has unfolded with force.

"This group got in and some clashes happened," he said, adding that he would look into whether the violence was part of an organized attempt to disband the opposition.

Even as he spoke, foes and supporters of Mubarak's government continued clashing in Tahrir Square. Pro-Mubarak crowds were smaller Thursday but tension still ran high as people hurled rocks and flashbangs at each other.

The two sides faced off all through the night and earlier Thursday, heavy gunfire reverberated in central Cairo. The military maneuvered to separate the two sides but in the afternoon, in parts of the square, the soldiers were nowhere to be seen.

Scores of bandaged demonstrators remained in the square. At least five people were killed and 836 injured, including 200 within one hour Thursday morning, Egypt's health minister said on Nile TV.

In Washington, President Barack Obama addressed the Egyptian crisis, now in its 10th day, at the National Prayer Breakfast.

"We pray that the violence in Egypt will end, and that the rights and aspirations of the Egyptian people will be realized, and that a better day will dawn over Egypt and throughout the world," he said.

Obama's comments came after the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Britain issued a statement urging a "rapid and peaceful transition" and European Union foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton called on Mubarak to act "as quickly as possible" on that transition.

Mubarak announced last week that he would not run again in September elections. His newly appointed Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman said Mubarak's son, Gamal -- who was being groomed as his successor -- will also not seek the post.

But many of the protesters are demanding an immediate end to Mubarak's rule.

Shafiq appealed to his compatriots, especially Egypt's youth, to show patience as the government's leadership goes through the transitional period.

"It has great meaning not to hurt each other, hurt our reputation," he said. "Do they want what happened in Tunisia to happen here?" Shafiq said, referring to the revolt in Tunisia that ousted the nation's longtime strongman and served as inspiration for other nations in the region that have seen similar demonstrations.

Shafiq said he and newly-appointed Vice President Omar Suleiman were to meet with the opposition -- including protesters in Tahrir Square. He said no one would be excluded from the national dialog, including the Muslim Brotherhood, an outlawed Islamist umbrella group.

But spokesman Essam El-Erian, said the Muslim Brotherhood will not participate in talks with the regime.

"We refuse to sit with him," El-Erian said Thursday, referring to Suleiman.

Other key opposition groups have also rejected meeting invitations, including the secular liberal Wafd Party and the Al-Ghad party, led by former presidential candidate Ayman Nour.

Journalists covering the crisis have also become targets -- beaten, bloodied, harassed and detained by men, most all in some way aligned with Mubarak. Numerous news outlets -- including the BBC, ABC News and CNN -- reported members of their staffs had been attacked, most on the streets of Cairo.

In several cases, news personnel were accused of being "foreign spies," seized, whisked away, and often assaulted. A spokesman for the United States blasted forces in Egypt who have harassed, detained and beaten journalists.

"There is a concerted campaign to intimidate international journalists in Cairo and interfere with their reporting," U.S. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said Thursday on Twitter. "We condemn such actions."

Early Thursday, sustained fire from automatic weapons, including from what sounded like a heavy machine gun, echoed around the square.

Anti-government demonstrators hunkered down behind makeshift barricades and small fires burned in the square, with some spreading to trees and walls. Chunks of concrete and Molotov ****tails flew as the crisis escalated.

In the nation's second-largest city of Alexandria, however, some signs of normalcy could be seen Thursday as trams returned to the streets for the first time in days.

A group of fishermen said they wanted life to get back to normal and one Mubarak supporter said the protests in Cairo were humiliating.

Mubarak loyalists, who had been largely silent since the unrest began, came out in full force Wednesday -- in one case wielding whips and thundering through the crowd on horses and camels.

"What you are seeing is the demonstration of the real Egyptian people who are trying to take back their country, trying to take back their street," said businessman Khaled Ahmed, who described himself as "pro-Egyptian."

But some observers said the pro-Mubarak push Wednesday was likely orchestrated by a regime bent on breaking up peaceful demonstrations.

"These are tactics that are well-known in Egypt," Michele Dunne, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told CNN's John King.

It was unclear whether confrontations were being repeated elsewhere. Other Cairo neighborhoods were calm, and rallies in Egypt's second-largest city, Alexandria, were largely peaceful.

Cairo resident Waleed Tawfik noted that Tahrir Square is the size of a football stadium, and the events there are not representative of peaceful protests elsewhere.

"There are 29 governors in Egypt," Tawfik said. "I don't understand why the whole international media is focused on a geographic area around about a half-kilometer by a half-kilometer."

He professed neutrality on Mubarak, but said the man who has ruled Egypt for three decades should be allowed to finish his term.

"I'd be worried if the president packed up and left at the request of 60,000 people," Tawfik said. "Eighty-four million is a larger voice ... (to) reconstruct the government and reshuffle ministers won't happen over day and night."

CNN's Frederik Pleitgen, Arwa Damon, Jenifer Fenton, and journalist Ian Lee contributed to this report.

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/02/03/egypt.protests/

ah well. The two smartest guys in the world think I'm a dummy. I'm boo hooing on the inside

thank you. the nytimes also reported that those who initiated the violence and were those throwing the molotov ****tails were the pro-mubarak "supporters"...and were being identified as being sent by the government.

it's pretty obvious that this is where the violence came from. pretty much every outside media source reported it this way, and surprise, surprise...the mabarak government is sending their henchmen to attack foriegn media today...

Forum Po Po and #33 for a reason...
PresIke
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2/3/2011  2:09 PM
JohnWallace44 wrote:I was watching this today and crowds were throwing fire bombs at eachother. I mean... that's some next level stuff.

not so sure there is evidence that people were throwing them at each other yesterday, because those throwing the firebombs were not the anti-govt supporters, according to several reporters.

not to say that the anti-government demonstrators have not resported to violence, but it appears to have come from defending themselves against the thugs who came yesterday, very organized by someone in mubarak's government, to disrupt the peaceful protests, some on horses or camels whacking folk's with clubs.

Forum Po Po and #33 for a reason...
orangeblobman
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2/3/2011  11:28 PM
PresIke wrote:
JohnWallace44 wrote:I was watching this today and crowds were throwing fire bombs at eachother. I mean... that's some next level stuff.

not so sure there is evidence that people were throwing them at each other yesterday, because those throwing the firebombs were not the anti-govt supporters, according to several reporters.

not to say that the anti-government demonstrators have not resported to violence, but it appears to have come from defending themselves against the thugs who came yesterday, very organized by someone in mubarak's government, to disrupt the peaceful protests, some on horses or camels whacking folk's with clubs.

Wait, what?

WE AIN'T NOWHERE WITH THIS BUM CHOKER IN CARMELO. GIVE ME STARKS'S 2-21 ANY DAY OVER THIS LACKLUSTER CLUSTEREFF.
Paladin55
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2/4/2011  9:28 AM
orangeblobman wrote:
PresIke wrote:
JohnWallace44 wrote:I was watching this today and crowds were throwing fire bombs at eachother. I mean... that's some next level stuff.

not so sure there is evidence that people were throwing them at each other yesterday, because those throwing the firebombs were not the anti-govt supporters, according to several reporters.

not to say that the anti-government demonstrators have not resported to violence, but it appears to have come from defending themselves against the thugs who came yesterday, very organized by someone in mubarak's government, to disrupt the peaceful protests, some on horses or camels whacking folk's with clubs.

Wait, what?

Yup. Showed the YouTube clip of the incident in one of my classes today. Pretty good stuff.

No man is happy without a delusion of some kind. Delusions are as necessary to our happiness as realities- C.N. Bovee
Markji
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2/8/2011  6:09 PM
This is a free weekly political analysis from Stratfor Global Intelligence on the Egypt situation and Israel. I thought it was very insightful. Their main point is the concern on who gets into power. It's a good read. Some excerpts below.

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110207-egypt-israel-and-strategic-reconsideration?utm_source=GWeekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=110208&utm_content=readmore

Egypt, Israel and a Strategic Reconsideration
February 8, 2011 | 0950 GMT

....The cameras love demonstrations, but they are frequently not the real story. The demonstrators who wanted democracy are a real faction, but they don’t speak for the shopkeepers and peasants more interested in prosperity than wealth. Since Egypt is a Muslim country, the West freezes when anything happens, dreading the hand of Osama bin Laden. In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood was once a powerful force, and it might become one again someday, but right now it is a shadow of its former self. What is going on now is a struggle within the military, between generations, for the future of the Egyptian military and therefore the heart of the Egyptian regime. Mubarak will leave, the younger officers will emerge, the constitution will make some changes and life will continue.

.....Two things from this should strike the Israelis. The first is how badly they need peace with Egypt. It is easy to forget what things were like 40 years back, but it is important to remember that the prosperity of Israel today depends in part on the treaty with Egypt. Iran is a distant abstraction, with a notional bomb whose completion date keeps moving. Israel can fight many wars with Egypt and win. It need lose only one. The second lesson is that Israel should do everything possible to make certain that the transfer of power in Egypt is from Mubarak to the next generation of military officers and that these officers maintain their credibility in Egypt. Whether Israel likes it or not, there is an Islamist movement in Egypt. Whether the new generation controls that movement as the previous one did or whether they succumb to it is the existential question for Israel. If the treaty with Egypt is the foundation of Israel’s national security, it is logical that the Israelis should do everything possible to preserve it......

The difference between fiction and reality? Fiction has to make sense. Tom Clancy - author
Marv
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2/10/2011  11:28 AM
"Breaking news: Strong likelihood Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will step down today, CIA Director Leon Panetta tells Congress."

http://www.cnn.com/

SupremeCommander
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2/10/2011  11:41 AM
Marv wrote:"Breaking news: Strong likelihood Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will step down today, CIA Director Leon Panetta tells Congress."

http://www.cnn.com/

good news

DLeethal wrote: Lol Rick needs a safe space
nykshaknbake
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2/10/2011  5:57 PM
Looks like the military is going to take over....Guess we traded the evil we know for the one we don't. Hope it turns out ok..
SupremeCommander
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2/10/2011  6:45 PM
SupremeCommander wrote:
Marv wrote:"Breaking news: Strong likelihood Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will step down today, CIA Director Leon Panetta tells Congress."

http://www.cnn.com/

good news

he never stepped down, really. He his day-to-day and ceremonial powers to his VP, but Mubarak retains the right to dissolve parliament and amend the constitution. He's been fingered the Ring of Power for too long

DLeethal wrote: Lol Rick needs a safe space
loweyecue
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2/10/2011  7:44 PM
SupremeCommander wrote:
SupremeCommander wrote:
Marv wrote:"Breaking news: Strong likelihood Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will step down today, CIA Director Leon Panetta tells Congress."

http://www.cnn.com/

good news

he never stepped down, really. He his day-to-day and ceremonial powers to his VP, but Mubarak retains the right to dissolve parliament and amend the constitution. He's been fingered the Ring of Power for too long

They just put together a dog and pony show, nothing has changed.

TKF on Melo ::....he is a punk, a jerk, a self absorbed out of shape, self aggrandizing, unprofessional, volume chucking coach killing playoff loser!!
Marv
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2/11/2011  8:45 AM
would you trust this man:

Nalod
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2/11/2011  8:47 AM

Im for him stepping down but a mob calling for a removal is not via their constitution and if they are to be a democracy they have to do it by the book.

Otherwise they are just a mob making it up as they go along.

They need to have limit terms. No more than 25 years!

Marv
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2/11/2011  8:51 AM
Nalod wrote:
Im for him stepping down but a mob calling for a removal is not via their constitution and if they are to be a democracy they have to do it by the book.

Otherwise they are just a mob making it up as they go along.

They need to have limit terms. No more than 25 years!

i don’t think i'd feel that way if i were among them. i'd believe nothing that mubarak had to say, and would expect him to say anything now to get the daily world press down while he works behind the scenes to ensure that he goes nowhere come september.

Nalod
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2/11/2011  9:06 AM    LAST EDITED: 2/11/2011  9:07 AM
Marv wrote:
Nalod wrote:
Im for him stepping down but a mob calling for a removal is not via their constitution and if they are to be a democracy they have to do it by the book.

Otherwise they are just a mob making it up as they go along.

They need to have limit terms. No more than 25 years!

i don’t think i'd feel that way if i were among them. i'd believe nothing that mubarak had to say, and would expect him to say anything now to get the daily world press down while he works behind the scenes to ensure that he goes nowhere come september.

I agree, the guy can't be trusted but the quandary is a democracy has its process for a reason and must be upheld.

Having corrupt elections is another problem unto itself. Look at 2000 presidential election we had here. It happens.

Constitutions are there to guide not out of emotion, but to uphold the law.

I get what the people want. But when you act on emotion your starphuching.

Paladin55
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2/11/2011  9:29 AM
Marv wrote:
Nalod wrote:
Im for him stepping down but a mob calling for a removal is not via their constitution and if they are to be a democracy they have to do it by the book.

Otherwise they are just a mob making it up as they go along.

They need to have limit terms. No more than 25 years!

i don’t think i'd feel that way if i were among them. i'd believe nothing that mubarak had to say, and would expect him to say anything now to get the daily world press down while he works behind the scenes to ensure that he goes nowhere come september.

If I was a conspiratorial thinking Egyptian, I might be thinking that Mubarak is trying to buy some time, attempt to have his intelligence folks deal with potential leaders of the movement, cut some deals,hope things die down, and around "election" time announce that he's had a change of mind and do a Bloomberg- say that the situation is such that it would be unwise for him to leave at this time.

No man is happy without a delusion of some kind. Delusions are as necessary to our happiness as realities- C.N. Bovee
PresIke
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2/11/2011  9:40 AM
nykshaknbake wrote:Looks like the military is going to take over....Guess we traded the evil we know for the one we don't. Hope it turns out ok..

the u.s. government is well acquainted with the egyptian military. about 2 weeks ago some of their leaders met with u.s. officials, i believe, for a routine meeting.

all of u.s. aid to egypt is military based.

Forum Po Po and #33 for a reason...
PresIke
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2/11/2011  9:45 AM    LAST EDITED: 2/11/2011  9:49 AM
Nalod wrote:
Im for him stepping down but a mob calling for a removal is not via their constitution and if they are to be a democracy they have to do it by the book.

Otherwise they are just a mob making it up as they go along.

They need to have limit terms. No more than 25 years!

nalod,

this is a rather outlandish comment. you are write as if the people of egypt actually believe in their constitution.

i guess you think jefferson, adams, payne, etc. should have taken up their grievances with the english parliment and the king within the system to "ammend" english laws too.

are you going to call them a mob too?

a constitution is not gospel if it is injust. the u.s. has often only made some major amendments to its constitution/major government program changes when there was legit fear of outright rebellion by the masses.


i believe the idea is to create a brand new one by some i have heard interviewed on the street.

Forum Po Po and #33 for a reason...
OT Egypt

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