martin wrote:

gradyandrew wrote:I think everyone agrees that Mitchell would be a great addition, it just all depends on the price. The oft mentioned benchmark is what the Utah Jazz got for Gobert, to whit:
• Malik Beasley
• Patrick Beverley
• Leandro Bolmaro
• Walker Kessler (No. 22 pick in 2022 Draft)
• Jarred Vanderbilt
• 2023 first-round pick
• 2025 first-round pick
• 2026 pick swap
• 2027 first-round pick
• 2029 first-round pick

Good stuff. Here is another good way to outline it and perhaps how Minny looks at the trade of the picks (they would literally ask an actuary type who is NBA informed): https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/team

Note: For this upcoming season 2022-23 Ant is 21yo, KAT is 27, Gobert is 30. At the 2026 draft Ant will be 24, KAT will be 30, Gobert will be 34.

Here is my uninformed actuary guesses:

• Walker Kessler (No. 22 pick in 2022 Draft) [top 20 pick in a weak draft]
• 2023 first-round pick [fully unprotected, 90+% chance this is a pick in the 20's]
• 2025 first-round pick [fully unprotected, 75+% chance this is a pick in the 20's]
• 2026 pick swap [50% chance there is no swap; >75% chance the swap is of little significance]
• 2027 first-round pick [scary, fully unprotected]
• 2029 first-round pick [scary, pick is 1-5 protected]

Thanks Martin. Also, good looks and summed up more clearly than I wrote. My basic thesis was that most of those picks are likely minor assets. You did great pointing out that the real value to Utah are the last two picks. My feeling is that even with DM, the Knicks aren't a lock as a top team so our immediate picks (if unprotected) are more valuable. The Murray trade is probably a better benchmark, but again Trae> anyone on the Knicks, so I would still say immediate Knicks picks are of higher value.