nixluva wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

nixluva wrote:

VCoug wrote:

nixluva wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

meloshouldgo wrote:

nixluva wrote:

dk7th wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

VCoug wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

VCoug wrote:

nixluva wrote:At the start of last season Rose was not at his best and struggling with the Mask after the Orbital Surgery. What is clear is that he did progress after time and removal of the Mask.

In 49 games without the mask, however, Rose averaged 17.3 points on 44.9 percent shooting from the field.

In 21 games played after the All-Star Break, he averaged 17.4 points on a slash line of .468/.375/.784.

http://dailyknicks.com/2016/07/17/knicks-derrick-roses-trainer-isnt-worried-about-his-health/

IMO with the extra time Rose has had in order to prepare his body and work on his skills, this is a very good situation for the Knicks. Rose has a very good opportunity to play a better brand of ball next season.

I'm still trying to understand why it is that people think the Knicks aren't that talented. Exactly how are teams going to be able to focus on stopping Rose, Melo and KP without leaving Lee or Noah open at some point? That's going to be the trick. As soon as you space the floor and put Rose in a 2 man game the advantage is all Knicks at that point. The defense will be put in a tough situation and most certainly will have to help off of Melo, KP or Lee. I'm not seeing a team that is going to be easy to defend at any point. Especially with Hornacek's aggressive style and approach to the game.

That article is completely disingenuous. The trainer's saying that he hasn't gotten a full offseason to work because of the playoffs but for 3 seasons, 2011/12 through 2013/14, he played in a combined 1 playoff game. The slight uptick in his shooting percentages is exclusively from shooting 37% from 3; something he's never come close to doing over the course of any season of his career. The only other stat that improved was his ORtg but that was offset by his DRtg getting worse by an equal amount.

He was better (but not good) from 2 point range in the 2nd half (.431 vs. .477). Average 2 point % is around 49 and good offenses are closer to 51 or 52% from 2 point range.

Even so, we're talking about 20 games, even less if you break it down by month. Looks like all of his improvement came during a 15 game stretch in March.

Yeah that's a fair comment. And we gave up a very productive center and a 1st round pick (Grant) to get him. We basically paid for his skill set and on the court performance from 2012 and earlier. It was a steep price.

I think the Rose move was well worth the cost and risk. I liked Lopez but he wasn't going to be the difference between winning and losing. He was replaceable. This team needed a push guard that can get to the rim.

The way Rose played in March is a good sign and nothing negative. There was a very distinct upward trajectory of his performance. He may not have reached the highest level possible for him and we need him to play well for an entire season but I think that's what he's working towards and the way he improved last year was a good indication that he is on the right track.

Overall this roster has been retooled with more speed and athletic ability. I think that will have a very positive impact, especially when married with Hornacek's uptempo, spread and aggressive schemes.

the bulls were 32-34 with rose in the lineup in 2015-16. that means they were 10-6 without rose in the lineup. the bulls were 7-8 the last 15 games of rose's season, ostensibly when he was no longer seeing double.

new season, new team, new opportunity... nonetheless as i have been saying, he has a LOT to prove, nixluva.

You and Bonn seem to believe in this notion that how Rose played last year is really a true indication of what he's going to be in NY. I'm sure that Rose's poor play was a negative factor for the Bulls. Where I disagree with you and Bonn is that I don't expect that the Rose we'll see is going to be the same player that struggled last season. Missing time before the season dealing with his Facial Surgery and then dealing with the Mask negatively impacted Rose. You guys are practically dismissing the impact of that freak injury to his eye socket but i'm not. I'm saying that it was directly responsible for a lot of his struggles. He did improve and I expect that to continue. I expect Rose to come in better prepared, healthier and motivated.

I expect that Hornacek will find a way to merge the talents he has on this roster. There is considerable talent on this roster and some untapped talent that is still in development. JH has a style of play that makes the game easier for his players and helps to maximize their talent and make them more efficient. You put these players in more PnR and spread situations and they're gonna shine.

I think they are both pointing out actual data and results, you are countering by what you believe in, those two things are not the same. You can of course believe Rose will get better but there is no data to support that. If you are going to use data to project how he will play the last year's data is the most relevant. Data and belief systems don't mesh.

Exactly. If a poster says he thinks next year will be the first in four years where a player will be healthy, there's really no way to argue with it. I don't ignore injury history. Players with recurrent injury problems tend to stay that way even if they have one off-season when they're healthy. That said, I've said I think there's a small chance that Rose and Noah stay healthy and have a better mindset (Rose) and the team does very well. What else do you want, Nix? You're not going to give up until I believe there's a high chance they'll do very well?

No it's not about me giving up. I'm just looking at the same data PLUS taking into account the factors that likely contributed to Rose starting off so poorly. The trajectory of the data shows that he was getting better and so even in my take on things it's still data supported. Rose was never a great shooter, but I believe he will get back to where he once was and HOPE even better in terms of efficiency and team play.

Just to compare Rose this year with his best years. Once you get past the poor early start he started to pick things up and come closer to how he played in his best years.

2015-16   eFG%  TS%
November  37.3	40.7  
December  43.7	46.1	
January   48.8	52.6	
February  45.8	50.8
March     49.3	51.1
	
2008-09   48.2  51.6
2009-10   49.5  53.2  
2010-11   48.5  55.0
2011-12   47.3  53.2

Bonn's point was about factoring in Rose's injury history, which you seem to be glossing over.

Thank you. That's exactly the point.

Also, those 2015-16 #s are below average every month. He got better in the sense that he was less below average January through March. And at least part of that had to do with an unusually high 3 point % (38 vs. his career average of 30), which seems more like random fluctuation than a sudden huge improvement in his ability. He's going to have to a) stay healthy for the first time in a long time, b) have better shot selection, and c) hit at better rates from each spot on the floor. B means he has to take better shots and C means even if he shoots high percentage shots, he has to actually do a better job than he's been doing at converting them. It's A LOT of IFs. Then Noah has to stay healthy too and shoot better than last year.

I don't ignore that all of these ifs could happen. But from a statistical perspective, it's hard to say the odds are high.

For Rose things are gradually getting better. He's playing in more games each season and he didn't have any knee procedures last season. The Orbital Fracture was a freak accident and not a chronic thing. Rose was able to overcome the poor start and start to make progress. Come next season he will be even further distanced from his last knee surgery.

My points are that Rose was getting closer to his career best years at the end of the season in terms of his shooting. He's never been a great shooter. I'm not expecting Rose to suddenly, miraculously become a great shooter. Once again look at Rose in his best years and then look at where he was headed the last few months before he shut it down in April. At the end there he was approaching a level near what he had always been. The distance Rose would have to improve to get there is not as far as you are trying to make it sound.

I'm not measuring Rose against some mythical version of himself or the criteria you are making him have to meet in your mind. He played in 66 games and I would think the Knicks want to get him into the 70's and have him strong and in great shape come playoff time. The goal isn't to ride him like a pack mule. They checked out his knees and were extremely happy with what they saw. If things are healing properly that's all you can hope for. Get him on a very good conditioning program and have the Training and Medical staff put together a great regimen for him during the season. That's all you can do. None of this is so difficult that it shouldn't be possible to achieve.

Phil and the medical staff might be pleased with what they saw, but they are still taking a wait and see approach with this one year deal. Im very confident that Phil isnt even trying to guess what will happen with Rose next season. Doesn't mean we can't, just saying that there is no reliable predictor, no metric available that can reliably predict wether or not Rose can have close to the impact he did 4 years ago. Just have to hope for the best because its anybody's guess.

If we have to rely on Rose shooting a respectable pct from the field to contend, I believe we'll probably be in trouble. As I said upthread, Rose's biggest contribution IMO would be to once again be a threat at the rim. Rose still is fast, I would have more faith in him becoming a better finisher, than shooter where confidence plays more of a role.

With all the issues Rose still drove to the rim about 9 times a game. He was fairly efficient on those looks according to NBA he was 51%. I think he can be even better in Hornacek's style of ball and with threats like Melo and KP on the floor.

In terms of Rose's impact I can confidently say it will be MASSIVELY greater than Jose's impact. For all the complaining about his lack of efficiency, there's simply no way to say that Rose won't be a problem out there on the floor with threats like Melo, KP and even Lee on the perimeter. If JH spreads them out behind the 3pt line teams will have a tough choice on how to help against Rose penetration. That much I do know!!!

That's not fairly efficient. 51% on shots at the rim is a terrible number; about 10 points below league average.

You know that's the reason why I keep posting. It's all too easy to just make statements without really putting them in context. Just look at the other top Guards in the league in terms of drives per game. Look at the FG% column for all of these guards.

http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/player/drives/?sort=DRIVES&dir=1&CF=GP*GE*50&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerPosition=G

Correct me if Im wrong but werent Rose's numbers mostly from a strong second half? Its encouraging of course, but Rose has been at the bottom of the list in finishing at the rim, post injury.

I want to see Rose going wire to wire, playing well with no major or nagging issues before I start getting too enthusiastic. Something he hasn't done in 4 years. Its why I put "if healthy" next to my predictions among others.

Just look at his stats from all types of Drives. Look at the FG% and then tell me that it was only about the last few months. He was clearly doing work on drives, but what messed him up was his jump shooting. In general most of the scoring attempts when Rose was on the move were really efficient. His runners and pull ups were all good. His jump shots were what brought him down and he only shot 38% on Jump Shots.

                                                                        FGM     FGM
Shot Type Detail	        FGM	FGA	FG%	eFG%	BLKA	%AST    %UAST
Cutting Layup Shot	        6	9	66.7	66.7	0	83.3	16.7
Driving Bank Hook Shot	        1	1	100	100	0	0.0	100
Driving Bank shot	        8	10	80.0	80.0	0	12.5	87.5
Driving Dunk Shot	        0	0	0.0	0.0	0	0.0	0.0
Driving Finger Roll Layup Shot	17	23	73.9	73.9	0	5.9	94.1
Driving Floating Bank Jump Shot	5	7	71.4	71.4	0	20.0	80.0
Driving Floating Jump Shot	18	29	62.1	62.1	0	50.0	50.0
Driving Hook Shot	        3	3	100	100	0	33.3	66.7
Driving Layup Shot	        95	170	55.9	55.9	15	20.0	80.0
Driving Reverse Dunk Shot	0	0	0.0	0.0	0	0.0	0.0
Driving Reverse Layup Shot	13	20	65.0	65.0	2	30.8	69.2

http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/201565/stats/shooting/

what this chart also confirms is that he does most of his scoring unassisted. a cautionary tale if you are hoping for a player who creates cohesion.

Then Rose and Jennings get the steppin' and the full court press for #RusselltoNYK goes into effect.

nixluva wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

nixluva wrote:

VCoug wrote:

nixluva wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

meloshouldgo wrote:

nixluva wrote:

dk7th wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

VCoug wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

VCoug wrote:

nixluva wrote:At the start of last season Rose was not at his best and struggling with the Mask after the Orbital Surgery. What is clear is that he did progress after time and removal of the Mask.

In 49 games without the mask, however, Rose averaged 17.3 points on 44.9 percent shooting from the field.

In 21 games played after the All-Star Break, he averaged 17.4 points on a slash line of .468/.375/.784.

http://dailyknicks.com/2016/07/17/knicks-derrick-roses-trainer-isnt-worried-about-his-health/

IMO with the extra time Rose has had in order to prepare his body and work on his skills, this is a very good situation for the Knicks. Rose has a very good opportunity to play a better brand of ball next season.

I'm still trying to understand why it is that people think the Knicks aren't that talented. Exactly how are teams going to be able to focus on stopping Rose, Melo and KP without leaving Lee or Noah open at some point? That's going to be the trick. As soon as you space the floor and put Rose in a 2 man game the advantage is all Knicks at that point. The defense will be put in a tough situation and most certainly will have to help off of Melo, KP or Lee. I'm not seeing a team that is going to be easy to defend at any point. Especially with Hornacek's aggressive style and approach to the game.

That article is completely disingenuous. The trainer's saying that he hasn't gotten a full offseason to work because of the playoffs but for 3 seasons, 2011/12 through 2013/14, he played in a combined 1 playoff game. The slight uptick in his shooting percentages is exclusively from shooting 37% from 3; something he's never come close to doing over the course of any season of his career. The only other stat that improved was his ORtg but that was offset by his DRtg getting worse by an equal amount.

He was better (but not good) from 2 point range in the 2nd half (.431 vs. .477). Average 2 point % is around 49 and good offenses are closer to 51 or 52% from 2 point range.

Even so, we're talking about 20 games, even less if you break it down by month. Looks like all of his improvement came during a 15 game stretch in March.

Yeah that's a fair comment. And we gave up a very productive center and a 1st round pick (Grant) to get him. We basically paid for his skill set and on the court performance from 2012 and earlier. It was a steep price.

I think the Rose move was well worth the cost and risk. I liked Lopez but he wasn't going to be the difference between winning and losing. He was replaceable. This team needed a push guard that can get to the rim.

The way Rose played in March is a good sign and nothing negative. There was a very distinct upward trajectory of his performance. He may not have reached the highest level possible for him and we need him to play well for an entire season but I think that's what he's working towards and the way he improved last year was a good indication that he is on the right track.

Overall this roster has been retooled with more speed and athletic ability. I think that will have a very positive impact, especially when married with Hornacek's uptempo, spread and aggressive schemes.

the bulls were 32-34 with rose in the lineup in 2015-16. that means they were 10-6 without rose in the lineup. the bulls were 7-8 the last 15 games of rose's season, ostensibly when he was no longer seeing double.

new season, new team, new opportunity... nonetheless as i have been saying, he has a LOT to prove, nixluva.

You and Bonn seem to believe in this notion that how Rose played last year is really a true indication of what he's going to be in NY. I'm sure that Rose's poor play was a negative factor for the Bulls. Where I disagree with you and Bonn is that I don't expect that the Rose we'll see is going to be the same player that struggled last season. Missing time before the season dealing with his Facial Surgery and then dealing with the Mask negatively impacted Rose. You guys are practically dismissing the impact of that freak injury to his eye socket but i'm not. I'm saying that it was directly responsible for a lot of his struggles. He did improve and I expect that to continue. I expect Rose to come in better prepared, healthier and motivated.

I expect that Hornacek will find a way to merge the talents he has on this roster. There is considerable talent on this roster and some untapped talent that is still in development. JH has a style of play that makes the game easier for his players and helps to maximize their talent and make them more efficient. You put these players in more PnR and spread situations and they're gonna shine.

I think they are both pointing out actual data and results, you are countering by what you believe in, those two things are not the same. You can of course believe Rose will get better but there is no data to support that. If you are going to use data to project how he will play the last year's data is the most relevant. Data and belief systems don't mesh.

Exactly. If a poster says he thinks next year will be the first in four years where a player will be healthy, there's really no way to argue with it. I don't ignore injury history. Players with recurrent injury problems tend to stay that way even if they have one off-season when they're healthy. That said, I've said I think there's a small chance that Rose and Noah stay healthy and have a better mindset (Rose) and the team does very well. What else do you want, Nix? You're not going to give up until I believe there's a high chance they'll do very well?

No it's not about me giving up. I'm just looking at the same data PLUS taking into account the factors that likely contributed to Rose starting off so poorly. The trajectory of the data shows that he was getting better and so even in my take on things it's still data supported. Rose was never a great shooter, but I believe he will get back to where he once was and HOPE even better in terms of efficiency and team play.

Just to compare Rose this year with his best years. Once you get past the poor early start he started to pick things up and come closer to how he played in his best years.

2015-16   eFG%  TS%
November  37.3	40.7  
December  43.7	46.1	
January   48.8	52.6	
February  45.8	50.8
March     49.3	51.1
	
2008-09   48.2  51.6
2009-10   49.5  53.2  
2010-11   48.5  55.0
2011-12   47.3  53.2

Bonn's point was about factoring in Rose's injury history, which you seem to be glossing over.

Thank you. That's exactly the point.

Also, those 2015-16 #s are below average every month. He got better in the sense that he was less below average January through March. And at least part of that had to do with an unusually high 3 point % (38 vs. his career average of 30), which seems more like random fluctuation than a sudden huge improvement in his ability. He's going to have to a) stay healthy for the first time in a long time, b) have better shot selection, and c) hit at better rates from each spot on the floor. B means he has to take better shots and C means even if he shoots high percentage shots, he has to actually do a better job than he's been doing at converting them. It's A LOT of IFs. Then Noah has to stay healthy too and shoot better than last year.

I don't ignore that all of these ifs could happen. But from a statistical perspective, it's hard to say the odds are high.

For Rose things are gradually getting better. He's playing in more games each season and he didn't have any knee procedures last season. The Orbital Fracture was a freak accident and not a chronic thing. Rose was able to overcome the poor start and start to make progress. Come next season he will be even further distanced from his last knee surgery.

My points are that Rose was getting closer to his career best years at the end of the season in terms of his shooting. He's never been a great shooter. I'm not expecting Rose to suddenly, miraculously become a great shooter. Once again look at Rose in his best years and then look at where he was headed the last few months before he shut it down in April. At the end there he was approaching a level near what he had always been. The distance Rose would have to improve to get there is not as far as you are trying to make it sound.

I'm not measuring Rose against some mythical version of himself or the criteria you are making him have to meet in your mind. He played in 66 games and I would think the Knicks want to get him into the 70's and have him strong and in great shape come playoff time. The goal isn't to ride him like a pack mule. They checked out his knees and were extremely happy with what they saw. If things are healing properly that's all you can hope for. Get him on a very good conditioning program and have the Training and Medical staff put together a great regimen for him during the season. That's all you can do. None of this is so difficult that it shouldn't be possible to achieve.

Phil and the medical staff might be pleased with what they saw, but they are still taking a wait and see approach with this one year deal. Im very confident that Phil isnt even trying to guess what will happen with Rose next season. Doesn't mean we can't, just saying that there is no reliable predictor, no metric available that can reliably predict wether or not Rose can have close to the impact he did 4 years ago. Just have to hope for the best because its anybody's guess.

If we have to rely on Rose shooting a respectable pct from the field to contend, I believe we'll probably be in trouble. As I said upthread, Rose's biggest contribution IMO would be to once again be a threat at the rim. Rose still is fast, I would have more faith in him becoming a better finisher, than shooter where confidence plays more of a role.

With all the issues Rose still drove to the rim about 9 times a game. He was fairly efficient on those looks according to NBA he was 51%. I think he can be even better in Hornacek's style of ball and with threats like Melo and KP on the floor.

In terms of Rose's impact I can confidently say it will be MASSIVELY greater than Jose's impact. For all the complaining about his lack of efficiency, there's simply no way to say that Rose won't be a problem out there on the floor with threats like Melo, KP and even Lee on the perimeter. If JH spreads them out behind the 3pt line teams will have a tough choice on how to help against Rose penetration. That much I do know!!!

That's not fairly efficient. 51% on shots at the rim is a terrible number; about 10 points below league average.

You know that's the reason why I keep posting. It's all too easy to just make statements without really putting them in context. Just look at the other top Guards in the league in terms of drives per game. Look at the FG% column for all of these guards.

http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/player/drives/?sort=DRIVES&dir=1&CF=GP*GE*50&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerPosition=G

Correct me if Im wrong but werent Rose's numbers mostly from a strong second half? Its encouraging of course, but Rose has been at the bottom of the list in finishing at the rim, post injury.

I want to see Rose going wire to wire, playing well with no major or nagging issues before I start getting too enthusiastic. Something he hasn't done in 4 years. Its why I put "if healthy" next to my predictions among others.

Just look at his stats from all types of Drives. Look at the FG% and then tell me that it was only about the last few months. He was clearly doing work on drives, but what messed him up was his jump shooting. In general most of the scoring attempts when Rose was on the move were really efficient. His runners and pull ups were all good. His jump shots were what brought him down and he only shot 38% on Jump Shots.

                                                                        FGM     FGM
Shot Type Detail	        FGM	FGA	FG%	eFG%	BLKA	%AST    %UAST
Cutting Layup Shot	        6	9	66.7	66.7	0	83.3	16.7
Driving Bank Hook Shot	        1	1	100	100	0	0.0	100
Driving Bank shot	        8	10	80.0	80.0	0	12.5	87.5
Driving Dunk Shot	        0	0	0.0	0.0	0	0.0	0.0
Driving Finger Roll Layup Shot	17	23	73.9	73.9	0	5.9	94.1
Driving Floating Bank Jump Shot	5	7	71.4	71.4	0	20.0	80.0
Driving Floating Jump Shot	18	29	62.1	62.1	0	50.0	50.0
Driving Hook Shot	        3	3	100	100	0	33.3	66.7
Driving Layup Shot	        95	170	55.9	55.9	15	20.0	80.0
Driving Reverse Dunk Shot	0	0	0.0	0.0	0	0.0	0.0
Driving Reverse Layup Shot	13	20	65.0	65.0	2	30.8	69.2

http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/201565/stats/shooting/

His FG pct on drives was 44.6 pct before Jan 1 and 58 pct after Jan 1, can't copy and paste.

http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/news/derrick-rose-chicago-bulls-mvp-point-guard-jimmy-butler-injury/148ysjsxjugtf1c0kufcshncbr

Over the past two years as we've seen him fight to get back to where he was, Rose simply hasn't had those advantages in speed, quickness, and finishing ability, which has exacerbated the effect of his questionable shot selection. Every mid-range jump shot he took over the past two years looked worse because he wasn't compensating with efficient scoring at the rim, and it emphasized that he wasn't able to get to the rim the way he used to.

Stevo718 wrote:54-30 Eastern Conference Finals...

Beat Cleveland in 7... Lose to the Spurs in 7.

A mutha****a can dream right?

So your dream for the Knicks is them making it to the finals and then losing?? I mean if you're gonna have fictional dreams at least dream of them winning the whole damn thing.

GustavBahler wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

nixluva wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

nixluva wrote:

VCoug wrote:

nixluva wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

meloshouldgo wrote:

nixluva wrote:

dk7th wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

VCoug wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

VCoug wrote:

nixluva wrote:At the start of last season Rose was not at his best and struggling with the Mask after the Orbital Surgery. What is clear is that he did progress after time and removal of the Mask.

In 49 games without the mask, however, Rose averaged 17.3 points on 44.9 percent shooting from the field.

In 21 games played after the All-Star Break, he averaged 17.4 points on a slash line of .468/.375/.784.

http://dailyknicks.com/2016/07/17/knicks-derrick-roses-trainer-isnt-worried-about-his-health/

IMO with the extra time Rose has had in order to prepare his body and work on his skills, this is a very good situation for the Knicks. Rose has a very good opportunity to play a better brand of ball next season.

I'm still trying to understand why it is that people think the Knicks aren't that talented. Exactly how are teams going to be able to focus on stopping Rose, Melo and KP without leaving Lee or Noah open at some point? That's going to be the trick. As soon as you space the floor and put Rose in a 2 man game the advantage is all Knicks at that point. The defense will be put in a tough situation and most certainly will have to help off of Melo, KP or Lee. I'm not seeing a team that is going to be easy to defend at any point. Especially with Hornacek's aggressive style and approach to the game.

That article is completely disingenuous. The trainer's saying that he hasn't gotten a full offseason to work because of the playoffs but for 3 seasons, 2011/12 through 2013/14, he played in a combined 1 playoff game. The slight uptick in his shooting percentages is exclusively from shooting 37% from 3; something he's never come close to doing over the course of any season of his career. The only other stat that improved was his ORtg but that was offset by his DRtg getting worse by an equal amount.

He was better (but not good) from 2 point range in the 2nd half (.431 vs. .477). Average 2 point % is around 49 and good offenses are closer to 51 or 52% from 2 point range.

Even so, we're talking about 20 games, even less if you break it down by month. Looks like all of his improvement came during a 15 game stretch in March.

Yeah that's a fair comment. And we gave up a very productive center and a 1st round pick (Grant) to get him. We basically paid for his skill set and on the court performance from 2012 and earlier. It was a steep price.

I think the Rose move was well worth the cost and risk. I liked Lopez but he wasn't going to be the difference between winning and losing. He was replaceable. This team needed a push guard that can get to the rim.

The way Rose played in March is a good sign and nothing negative. There was a very distinct upward trajectory of his performance. He may not have reached the highest level possible for him and we need him to play well for an entire season but I think that's what he's working towards and the way he improved last year was a good indication that he is on the right track.

Overall this roster has been retooled with more speed and athletic ability. I think that will have a very positive impact, especially when married with Hornacek's uptempo, spread and aggressive schemes.

the bulls were 32-34 with rose in the lineup in 2015-16. that means they were 10-6 without rose in the lineup. the bulls were 7-8 the last 15 games of rose's season, ostensibly when he was no longer seeing double.

new season, new team, new opportunity... nonetheless as i have been saying, he has a LOT to prove, nixluva.

You and Bonn seem to believe in this notion that how Rose played last year is really a true indication of what he's going to be in NY. I'm sure that Rose's poor play was a negative factor for the Bulls. Where I disagree with you and Bonn is that I don't expect that the Rose we'll see is going to be the same player that struggled last season. Missing time before the season dealing with his Facial Surgery and then dealing with the Mask negatively impacted Rose. You guys are practically dismissing the impact of that freak injury to his eye socket but i'm not. I'm saying that it was directly responsible for a lot of his struggles. He did improve and I expect that to continue. I expect Rose to come in better prepared, healthier and motivated.

I expect that Hornacek will find a way to merge the talents he has on this roster. There is considerable talent on this roster and some untapped talent that is still in development. JH has a style of play that makes the game easier for his players and helps to maximize their talent and make them more efficient. You put these players in more PnR and spread situations and they're gonna shine.

I think they are both pointing out actual data and results, you are countering by what you believe in, those two things are not the same. You can of course believe Rose will get better but there is no data to support that. If you are going to use data to project how he will play the last year's data is the most relevant. Data and belief systems don't mesh.

Exactly. If a poster says he thinks next year will be the first in four years where a player will be healthy, there's really no way to argue with it. I don't ignore injury history. Players with recurrent injury problems tend to stay that way even if they have one off-season when they're healthy. That said, I've said I think there's a small chance that Rose and Noah stay healthy and have a better mindset (Rose) and the team does very well. What else do you want, Nix? You're not going to give up until I believe there's a high chance they'll do very well?

No it's not about me giving up. I'm just looking at the same data PLUS taking into account the factors that likely contributed to Rose starting off so poorly. The trajectory of the data shows that he was getting better and so even in my take on things it's still data supported. Rose was never a great shooter, but I believe he will get back to where he once was and HOPE even better in terms of efficiency and team play.

Just to compare Rose this year with his best years. Once you get past the poor early start he started to pick things up and come closer to how he played in his best years.

2015-16   eFG%  TS%
November  37.3	40.7  
December  43.7	46.1	
January   48.8	52.6	
February  45.8	50.8
March     49.3	51.1
	
2008-09   48.2  51.6
2009-10   49.5  53.2  
2010-11   48.5  55.0
2011-12   47.3  53.2

Bonn's point was about factoring in Rose's injury history, which you seem to be glossing over.

Thank you. That's exactly the point.

Also, those 2015-16 #s are below average every month. He got better in the sense that he was less below average January through March. And at least part of that had to do with an unusually high 3 point % (38 vs. his career average of 30), which seems more like random fluctuation than a sudden huge improvement in his ability. He's going to have to a) stay healthy for the first time in a long time, b) have better shot selection, and c) hit at better rates from each spot on the floor. B means he has to take better shots and C means even if he shoots high percentage shots, he has to actually do a better job than he's been doing at converting them. It's A LOT of IFs. Then Noah has to stay healthy too and shoot better than last year.

I don't ignore that all of these ifs could happen. But from a statistical perspective, it's hard to say the odds are high.

For Rose things are gradually getting better. He's playing in more games each season and he didn't have any knee procedures last season. The Orbital Fracture was a freak accident and not a chronic thing. Rose was able to overcome the poor start and start to make progress. Come next season he will be even further distanced from his last knee surgery.

My points are that Rose was getting closer to his career best years at the end of the season in terms of his shooting. He's never been a great shooter. I'm not expecting Rose to suddenly, miraculously become a great shooter. Once again look at Rose in his best years and then look at where he was headed the last few months before he shut it down in April. At the end there he was approaching a level near what he had always been. The distance Rose would have to improve to get there is not as far as you are trying to make it sound.

I'm not measuring Rose against some mythical version of himself or the criteria you are making him have to meet in your mind. He played in 66 games and I would think the Knicks want to get him into the 70's and have him strong and in great shape come playoff time. The goal isn't to ride him like a pack mule. They checked out his knees and were extremely happy with what they saw. If things are healing properly that's all you can hope for. Get him on a very good conditioning program and have the Training and Medical staff put together a great regimen for him during the season. That's all you can do. None of this is so difficult that it shouldn't be possible to achieve.

Phil and the medical staff might be pleased with what they saw, but they are still taking a wait and see approach with this one year deal. Im very confident that Phil isnt even trying to guess what will happen with Rose next season. Doesn't mean we can't, just saying that there is no reliable predictor, no metric available that can reliably predict wether or not Rose can have close to the impact he did 4 years ago. Just have to hope for the best because its anybody's guess.

If we have to rely on Rose shooting a respectable pct from the field to contend, I believe we'll probably be in trouble. As I said upthread, Rose's biggest contribution IMO would be to once again be a threat at the rim. Rose still is fast, I would have more faith in him becoming a better finisher, than shooter where confidence plays more of a role.

With all the issues Rose still drove to the rim about 9 times a game. He was fairly efficient on those looks according to NBA he was 51%. I think he can be even better in Hornacek's style of ball and with threats like Melo and KP on the floor.

In terms of Rose's impact I can confidently say it will be MASSIVELY greater than Jose's impact. For all the complaining about his lack of efficiency, there's simply no way to say that Rose won't be a problem out there on the floor with threats like Melo, KP and even Lee on the perimeter. If JH spreads them out behind the 3pt line teams will have a tough choice on how to help against Rose penetration. That much I do know!!!

That's not fairly efficient. 51% on shots at the rim is a terrible number; about 10 points below league average.

You know that's the reason why I keep posting. It's all too easy to just make statements without really putting them in context. Just look at the other top Guards in the league in terms of drives per game. Look at the FG% column for all of these guards.

http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/player/drives/?sort=DRIVES&dir=1&CF=GP*GE*50&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerPosition=G

Correct me if Im wrong but werent Rose's numbers mostly from a strong second half? Its encouraging of course, but Rose has been at the bottom of the list in finishing at the rim, post injury.

I want to see Rose going wire to wire, playing well with no major or nagging issues before I start getting too enthusiastic. Something he hasn't done in 4 years. Its why I put "if healthy" next to my predictions among others.

Just look at his stats from all types of Drives. Look at the FG% and then tell me that it was only about the last few months. He was clearly doing work on drives, but what messed him up was his jump shooting. In general most of the scoring attempts when Rose was on the move were really efficient. His runners and pull ups were all good. His jump shots were what brought him down and he only shot 38% on Jump Shots.

                                                                        FGM     FGM
Shot Type Detail	        FGM	FGA	FG%	eFG%	BLKA	%AST    %UAST
Cutting Layup Shot	        6	9	66.7	66.7	0	83.3	16.7
Driving Bank Hook Shot	        1	1	100	100	0	0.0	100
Driving Bank shot	        8	10	80.0	80.0	0	12.5	87.5
Driving Dunk Shot	        0	0	0.0	0.0	0	0.0	0.0
Driving Finger Roll Layup Shot	17	23	73.9	73.9	0	5.9	94.1
Driving Floating Bank Jump Shot	5	7	71.4	71.4	0	20.0	80.0
Driving Floating Jump Shot	18	29	62.1	62.1	0	50.0	50.0
Driving Hook Shot	        3	3	100	100	0	33.3	66.7
Driving Layup Shot	        95	170	55.9	55.9	15	20.0	80.0
Driving Reverse Dunk Shot	0	0	0.0	0.0	0	0.0	0.0
Driving Reverse Layup Shot	13	20	65.0	65.0	2	30.8	69.2

http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/201565/stats/shooting/

His FG pct on drives was 44.6 pct before Jan 1 and 58 pct after Jan 1, can't copy and paste.

http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/news/derrick-rose-chicago-bulls-mvp-point-guard-jimmy-butler-injury/148ysjsxjugtf1c0kufcshncbr

Over the past two years as we've seen him fight to get back to where he was, Rose simply hasn't had those advantages in speed, quickness, and finishing ability, which has exacerbated the effect of his questionable shot selection. Every mid-range jump shot he took over the past two years looked worse because he wasn't compensating with efficient scoring at the rim, and it emphasized that he wasn't able to get to the rim the way he used to.

That's a huge difference but it's not for the entire 2nd half of the season. The article was published Feb 22nd. It's just counting games between Jan 5th (when he returned) and Feb 22nd. It was still a good stretch. It would be nice to have the #s for the rest of the season.

Thanks for the clarification.

GustavBahler wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

nixluva wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

nixluva wrote:

VCoug wrote:

nixluva wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

meloshouldgo wrote:

nixluva wrote:

dk7th wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

VCoug wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

VCoug wrote:

nixluva wrote:At the start of last season Rose was not at his best and struggling with the Mask after the Orbital Surgery. What is clear is that he did progress after time and removal of the Mask.

In 49 games without the mask, however, Rose averaged 17.3 points on 44.9 percent shooting from the field.

In 21 games played after the All-Star Break, he averaged 17.4 points on a slash line of .468/.375/.784.

http://dailyknicks.com/2016/07/17/knicks-derrick-roses-trainer-isnt-worried-about-his-health/

IMO with the extra time Rose has had in order to prepare his body and work on his skills, this is a very good situation for the Knicks. Rose has a very good opportunity to play a better brand of ball next season.

I'm still trying to understand why it is that people think the Knicks aren't that talented. Exactly how are teams going to be able to focus on stopping Rose, Melo and KP without leaving Lee or Noah open at some point? That's going to be the trick. As soon as you space the floor and put Rose in a 2 man game the advantage is all Knicks at that point. The defense will be put in a tough situation and most certainly will have to help off of Melo, KP or Lee. I'm not seeing a team that is going to be easy to defend at any point. Especially with Hornacek's aggressive style and approach to the game.

That article is completely disingenuous. The trainer's saying that he hasn't gotten a full offseason to work because of the playoffs but for 3 seasons, 2011/12 through 2013/14, he played in a combined 1 playoff game. The slight uptick in his shooting percentages is exclusively from shooting 37% from 3; something he's never come close to doing over the course of any season of his career. The only other stat that improved was his ORtg but that was offset by his DRtg getting worse by an equal amount.

He was better (but not good) from 2 point range in the 2nd half (.431 vs. .477). Average 2 point % is around 49 and good offenses are closer to 51 or 52% from 2 point range.

Even so, we're talking about 20 games, even less if you break it down by month. Looks like all of his improvement came during a 15 game stretch in March.

Yeah that's a fair comment. And we gave up a very productive center and a 1st round pick (Grant) to get him. We basically paid for his skill set and on the court performance from 2012 and earlier. It was a steep price.

I think the Rose move was well worth the cost and risk. I liked Lopez but he wasn't going to be the difference between winning and losing. He was replaceable. This team needed a push guard that can get to the rim.

The way Rose played in March is a good sign and nothing negative. There was a very distinct upward trajectory of his performance. He may not have reached the highest level possible for him and we need him to play well for an entire season but I think that's what he's working towards and the way he improved last year was a good indication that he is on the right track.

Overall this roster has been retooled with more speed and athletic ability. I think that will have a very positive impact, especially when married with Hornacek's uptempo, spread and aggressive schemes.

the bulls were 32-34 with rose in the lineup in 2015-16. that means they were 10-6 without rose in the lineup. the bulls were 7-8 the last 15 games of rose's season, ostensibly when he was no longer seeing double.

new season, new team, new opportunity... nonetheless as i have been saying, he has a LOT to prove, nixluva.

You and Bonn seem to believe in this notion that how Rose played last year is really a true indication of what he's going to be in NY. I'm sure that Rose's poor play was a negative factor for the Bulls. Where I disagree with you and Bonn is that I don't expect that the Rose we'll see is going to be the same player that struggled last season. Missing time before the season dealing with his Facial Surgery and then dealing with the Mask negatively impacted Rose. You guys are practically dismissing the impact of that freak injury to his eye socket but i'm not. I'm saying that it was directly responsible for a lot of his struggles. He did improve and I expect that to continue. I expect Rose to come in better prepared, healthier and motivated.

I expect that Hornacek will find a way to merge the talents he has on this roster. There is considerable talent on this roster and some untapped talent that is still in development. JH has a style of play that makes the game easier for his players and helps to maximize their talent and make them more efficient. You put these players in more PnR and spread situations and they're gonna shine.

I think they are both pointing out actual data and results, you are countering by what you believe in, those two things are not the same. You can of course believe Rose will get better but there is no data to support that. If you are going to use data to project how he will play the last year's data is the most relevant. Data and belief systems don't mesh.

Exactly. If a poster says he thinks next year will be the first in four years where a player will be healthy, there's really no way to argue with it. I don't ignore injury history. Players with recurrent injury problems tend to stay that way even if they have one off-season when they're healthy. That said, I've said I think there's a small chance that Rose and Noah stay healthy and have a better mindset (Rose) and the team does very well. What else do you want, Nix? You're not going to give up until I believe there's a high chance they'll do very well?

No it's not about me giving up. I'm just looking at the same data PLUS taking into account the factors that likely contributed to Rose starting off so poorly. The trajectory of the data shows that he was getting better and so even in my take on things it's still data supported. Rose was never a great shooter, but I believe he will get back to where he once was and HOPE even better in terms of efficiency and team play.

Just to compare Rose this year with his best years. Once you get past the poor early start he started to pick things up and come closer to how he played in his best years.

2015-16   eFG%  TS%
November  37.3	40.7  
December  43.7	46.1	
January   48.8	52.6	
February  45.8	50.8
March     49.3	51.1
	
2008-09   48.2  51.6
2009-10   49.5  53.2  
2010-11   48.5  55.0
2011-12   47.3  53.2

Bonn's point was about factoring in Rose's injury history, which you seem to be glossing over.

Thank you. That's exactly the point.

Also, those 2015-16 #s are below average every month. He got better in the sense that he was less below average January through March. And at least part of that had to do with an unusually high 3 point % (38 vs. his career average of 30), which seems more like random fluctuation than a sudden huge improvement in his ability. He's going to have to a) stay healthy for the first time in a long time, b) have better shot selection, and c) hit at better rates from each spot on the floor. B means he has to take better shots and C means even if he shoots high percentage shots, he has to actually do a better job than he's been doing at converting them. It's A LOT of IFs. Then Noah has to stay healthy too and shoot better than last year.

I don't ignore that all of these ifs could happen. But from a statistical perspective, it's hard to say the odds are high.

For Rose things are gradually getting better. He's playing in more games each season and he didn't have any knee procedures last season. The Orbital Fracture was a freak accident and not a chronic thing. Rose was able to overcome the poor start and start to make progress. Come next season he will be even further distanced from his last knee surgery.

My points are that Rose was getting closer to his career best years at the end of the season in terms of his shooting. He's never been a great shooter. I'm not expecting Rose to suddenly, miraculously become a great shooter. Once again look at Rose in his best years and then look at where he was headed the last few months before he shut it down in April. At the end there he was approaching a level near what he had always been. The distance Rose would have to improve to get there is not as far as you are trying to make it sound.

I'm not measuring Rose against some mythical version of himself or the criteria you are making him have to meet in your mind. He played in 66 games and I would think the Knicks want to get him into the 70's and have him strong and in great shape come playoff time. The goal isn't to ride him like a pack mule. They checked out his knees and were extremely happy with what they saw. If things are healing properly that's all you can hope for. Get him on a very good conditioning program and have the Training and Medical staff put together a great regimen for him during the season. That's all you can do. None of this is so difficult that it shouldn't be possible to achieve.

Phil and the medical staff might be pleased with what they saw, but they are still taking a wait and see approach with this one year deal. Im very confident that Phil isnt even trying to guess what will happen with Rose next season. Doesn't mean we can't, just saying that there is no reliable predictor, no metric available that can reliably predict wether or not Rose can have close to the impact he did 4 years ago. Just have to hope for the best because its anybody's guess.

If we have to rely on Rose shooting a respectable pct from the field to contend, I believe we'll probably be in trouble. As I said upthread, Rose's biggest contribution IMO would be to once again be a threat at the rim. Rose still is fast, I would have more faith in him becoming a better finisher, than shooter where confidence plays more of a role.

With all the issues Rose still drove to the rim about 9 times a game. He was fairly efficient on those looks according to NBA he was 51%. I think he can be even better in Hornacek's style of ball and with threats like Melo and KP on the floor.

In terms of Rose's impact I can confidently say it will be MASSIVELY greater than Jose's impact. For all the complaining about his lack of efficiency, there's simply no way to say that Rose won't be a problem out there on the floor with threats like Melo, KP and even Lee on the perimeter. If JH spreads them out behind the 3pt line teams will have a tough choice on how to help against Rose penetration. That much I do know!!!

That's not fairly efficient. 51% on shots at the rim is a terrible number; about 10 points below league average.

You know that's the reason why I keep posting. It's all too easy to just make statements without really putting them in context. Just look at the other top Guards in the league in terms of drives per game. Look at the FG% column for all of these guards.

http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/player/drives/?sort=DRIVES&dir=1&CF=GP*GE*50&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerPosition=G

Correct me if Im wrong but werent Rose's numbers mostly from a strong second half? Its encouraging of course, but Rose has been at the bottom of the list in finishing at the rim, post injury.

I want to see Rose going wire to wire, playing well with no major or nagging issues before I start getting too enthusiastic. Something he hasn't done in 4 years. Its why I put "if healthy" next to my predictions among others.

Just look at his stats from all types of Drives. Look at the FG% and then tell me that it was only about the last few months. He was clearly doing work on drives, but what messed him up was his jump shooting. In general most of the scoring attempts when Rose was on the move were really efficient. His runners and pull ups were all good. His jump shots were what brought him down and he only shot 38% on Jump Shots.

                                                                        FGM     FGM
Shot Type Detail	        FGM	FGA	FG%	eFG%	BLKA	%AST    %UAST
Cutting Layup Shot	        6	9	66.7	66.7	0	83.3	16.7
Driving Bank Hook Shot	        1	1	100	100	0	0.0	100
Driving Bank shot	        8	10	80.0	80.0	0	12.5	87.5
Driving Dunk Shot	        0	0	0.0	0.0	0	0.0	0.0
Driving Finger Roll Layup Shot	17	23	73.9	73.9	0	5.9	94.1
Driving Floating Bank Jump Shot	5	7	71.4	71.4	0	20.0	80.0
Driving Floating Jump Shot	18	29	62.1	62.1	0	50.0	50.0
Driving Hook Shot	        3	3	100	100	0	33.3	66.7
Driving Layup Shot	        95	170	55.9	55.9	15	20.0	80.0
Driving Reverse Dunk Shot	0	0	0.0	0.0	0	0.0	0.0
Driving Reverse Layup Shot	13	20	65.0	65.0	2	30.8	69.2

http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/201565/stats/shooting/

His FG pct on drives was 44.6 pct before Jan 1 and 58 pct after Jan 1, can't copy and paste.

http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/news/derrick-rose-chicago-bulls-mvp-point-guard-jimmy-butler-injury/148ysjsxjugtf1c0kufcshncbr

Over the past two years as we've seen him fight to get back to where he was, Rose simply hasn't had those advantages in speed, quickness, and finishing ability, which has exacerbated the effect of his questionable shot selection. Every mid-range jump shot he took over the past two years looked worse because he wasn't compensating with efficient scoring at the rim, and it emphasized that he wasn't able to get to the rim the way he used to.

That's a huge difference but it's not for the entire 2nd half of the season. The article was published Feb 22nd. It's just counting games between Jan 5th (when he returned) and Feb 22nd. It was still a good stretch. It would be nice to have the #s for the rest of the season.

Thanks for the clarification.

The article was a good find. March was his best month from the field, though he struggled in the only 3 April games he played. I'm going to guess the % on drives was pretty good for the rest of the season. That does give some reason for hope. It's disappointing how rarely he got to the line considering how much he drives, though.

Here is another article, breaks down how Rose changed the way he attacks the rim, Nix might have posted it, he's posted a lot of them. As we have both pointed out, in the end it all comes down to how healthy Rose can stay. Im hoping Hornacek will encourage Rose to drive and dish more.

http://www.blogabull.com/2016/2/29/11130102/video-derrick-rose-chicago-bulls-finishing-rim-attack-dane-carbaugh-breakdown

Bonn1997 wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

nixluva wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

nixluva wrote:

VCoug wrote:

nixluva wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

meloshouldgo wrote:

nixluva wrote:

dk7th wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

VCoug wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

VCoug wrote:

nixluva wrote:At the start of last season Rose was not at his best and struggling with the Mask after the Orbital Surgery. What is clear is that he did progress after time and removal of the Mask.

In 49 games without the mask, however, Rose averaged 17.3 points on 44.9 percent shooting from the field.

In 21 games played after the All-Star Break, he averaged 17.4 points on a slash line of .468/.375/.784.

http://dailyknicks.com/2016/07/17/knicks-derrick-roses-trainer-isnt-worried-about-his-health/

IMO with the extra time Rose has had in order to prepare his body and work on his skills, this is a very good situation for the Knicks. Rose has a very good opportunity to play a better brand of ball next season.

I'm still trying to understand why it is that people think the Knicks aren't that talented. Exactly how are teams going to be able to focus on stopping Rose, Melo and KP without leaving Lee or Noah open at some point? That's going to be the trick. As soon as you space the floor and put Rose in a 2 man game the advantage is all Knicks at that point. The defense will be put in a tough situation and most certainly will have to help off of Melo, KP or Lee. I'm not seeing a team that is going to be easy to defend at any point. Especially with Hornacek's aggressive style and approach to the game.

That article is completely disingenuous. The trainer's saying that he hasn't gotten a full offseason to work because of the playoffs but for 3 seasons, 2011/12 through 2013/14, he played in a combined 1 playoff game. The slight uptick in his shooting percentages is exclusively from shooting 37% from 3; something he's never come close to doing over the course of any season of his career. The only other stat that improved was his ORtg but that was offset by his DRtg getting worse by an equal amount.

He was better (but not good) from 2 point range in the 2nd half (.431 vs. .477). Average 2 point % is around 49 and good offenses are closer to 51 or 52% from 2 point range.

Even so, we're talking about 20 games, even less if you break it down by month. Looks like all of his improvement came during a 15 game stretch in March.

Yeah that's a fair comment. And we gave up a very productive center and a 1st round pick (Grant) to get him. We basically paid for his skill set and on the court performance from 2012 and earlier. It was a steep price.

I think the Rose move was well worth the cost and risk. I liked Lopez but he wasn't going to be the difference between winning and losing. He was replaceable. This team needed a push guard that can get to the rim.

The way Rose played in March is a good sign and nothing negative. There was a very distinct upward trajectory of his performance. He may not have reached the highest level possible for him and we need him to play well for an entire season but I think that's what he's working towards and the way he improved last year was a good indication that he is on the right track.

Overall this roster has been retooled with more speed and athletic ability. I think that will have a very positive impact, especially when married with Hornacek's uptempo, spread and aggressive schemes.

the bulls were 32-34 with rose in the lineup in 2015-16. that means they were 10-6 without rose in the lineup. the bulls were 7-8 the last 15 games of rose's season, ostensibly when he was no longer seeing double.

new season, new team, new opportunity... nonetheless as i have been saying, he has a LOT to prove, nixluva.

You and Bonn seem to believe in this notion that how Rose played last year is really a true indication of what he's going to be in NY. I'm sure that Rose's poor play was a negative factor for the Bulls. Where I disagree with you and Bonn is that I don't expect that the Rose we'll see is going to be the same player that struggled last season. Missing time before the season dealing with his Facial Surgery and then dealing with the Mask negatively impacted Rose. You guys are practically dismissing the impact of that freak injury to his eye socket but i'm not. I'm saying that it was directly responsible for a lot of his struggles. He did improve and I expect that to continue. I expect Rose to come in better prepared, healthier and motivated.

I expect that Hornacek will find a way to merge the talents he has on this roster. There is considerable talent on this roster and some untapped talent that is still in development. JH has a style of play that makes the game easier for his players and helps to maximize their talent and make them more efficient. You put these players in more PnR and spread situations and they're gonna shine.

I think they are both pointing out actual data and results, you are countering by what you believe in, those two things are not the same. You can of course believe Rose will get better but there is no data to support that. If you are going to use data to project how he will play the last year's data is the most relevant. Data and belief systems don't mesh.

Exactly. If a poster says he thinks next year will be the first in four years where a player will be healthy, there's really no way to argue with it. I don't ignore injury history. Players with recurrent injury problems tend to stay that way even if they have one off-season when they're healthy. That said, I've said I think there's a small chance that Rose and Noah stay healthy and have a better mindset (Rose) and the team does very well. What else do you want, Nix? You're not going to give up until I believe there's a high chance they'll do very well?

No it's not about me giving up. I'm just looking at the same data PLUS taking into account the factors that likely contributed to Rose starting off so poorly. The trajectory of the data shows that he was getting better and so even in my take on things it's still data supported. Rose was never a great shooter, but I believe he will get back to where he once was and HOPE even better in terms of efficiency and team play.

Just to compare Rose this year with his best years. Once you get past the poor early start he started to pick things up and come closer to how he played in his best years.

2015-16   eFG%  TS%
November  37.3	40.7  
December  43.7	46.1	
January   48.8	52.6	
February  45.8	50.8
March     49.3	51.1
	
2008-09   48.2  51.6
2009-10   49.5  53.2  
2010-11   48.5  55.0
2011-12   47.3  53.2

Bonn's point was about factoring in Rose's injury history, which you seem to be glossing over.

Thank you. That's exactly the point.

Also, those 2015-16 #s are below average every month. He got better in the sense that he was less below average January through March. And at least part of that had to do with an unusually high 3 point % (38 vs. his career average of 30), which seems more like random fluctuation than a sudden huge improvement in his ability. He's going to have to a) stay healthy for the first time in a long time, b) have better shot selection, and c) hit at better rates from each spot on the floor. B means he has to take better shots and C means even if he shoots high percentage shots, he has to actually do a better job than he's been doing at converting them. It's A LOT of IFs. Then Noah has to stay healthy too and shoot better than last year.

I don't ignore that all of these ifs could happen. But from a statistical perspective, it's hard to say the odds are high.

For Rose things are gradually getting better. He's playing in more games each season and he didn't have any knee procedures last season. The Orbital Fracture was a freak accident and not a chronic thing. Rose was able to overcome the poor start and start to make progress. Come next season he will be even further distanced from his last knee surgery.

My points are that Rose was getting closer to his career best years at the end of the season in terms of his shooting. He's never been a great shooter. I'm not expecting Rose to suddenly, miraculously become a great shooter. Once again look at Rose in his best years and then look at where he was headed the last few months before he shut it down in April. At the end there he was approaching a level near what he had always been. The distance Rose would have to improve to get there is not as far as you are trying to make it sound.

I'm not measuring Rose against some mythical version of himself or the criteria you are making him have to meet in your mind. He played in 66 games and I would think the Knicks want to get him into the 70's and have him strong and in great shape come playoff time. The goal isn't to ride him like a pack mule. They checked out his knees and were extremely happy with what they saw. If things are healing properly that's all you can hope for. Get him on a very good conditioning program and have the Training and Medical staff put together a great regimen for him during the season. That's all you can do. None of this is so difficult that it shouldn't be possible to achieve.

Phil and the medical staff might be pleased with what they saw, but they are still taking a wait and see approach with this one year deal. Im very confident that Phil isnt even trying to guess what will happen with Rose next season. Doesn't mean we can't, just saying that there is no reliable predictor, no metric available that can reliably predict wether or not Rose can have close to the impact he did 4 years ago. Just have to hope for the best because its anybody's guess.

If we have to rely on Rose shooting a respectable pct from the field to contend, I believe we'll probably be in trouble. As I said upthread, Rose's biggest contribution IMO would be to once again be a threat at the rim. Rose still is fast, I would have more faith in him becoming a better finisher, than shooter where confidence plays more of a role.

With all the issues Rose still drove to the rim about 9 times a game. He was fairly efficient on those looks according to NBA he was 51%. I think he can be even better in Hornacek's style of ball and with threats like Melo and KP on the floor.

In terms of Rose's impact I can confidently say it will be MASSIVELY greater than Jose's impact. For all the complaining about his lack of efficiency, there's simply no way to say that Rose won't be a problem out there on the floor with threats like Melo, KP and even Lee on the perimeter. If JH spreads them out behind the 3pt line teams will have a tough choice on how to help against Rose penetration. That much I do know!!!

That's not fairly efficient. 51% on shots at the rim is a terrible number; about 10 points below league average.

You know that's the reason why I keep posting. It's all too easy to just make statements without really putting them in context. Just look at the other top Guards in the league in terms of drives per game. Look at the FG% column for all of these guards.

http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/player/drives/?sort=DRIVES&dir=1&CF=GP*GE*50&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerPosition=G

Correct me if Im wrong but werent Rose's numbers mostly from a strong second half? Its encouraging of course, but Rose has been at the bottom of the list in finishing at the rim, post injury.

I want to see Rose going wire to wire, playing well with no major or nagging issues before I start getting too enthusiastic. Something he hasn't done in 4 years. Its why I put "if healthy" next to my predictions among others.

Just look at his stats from all types of Drives. Look at the FG% and then tell me that it was only about the last few months. He was clearly doing work on drives, but what messed him up was his jump shooting. In general most of the scoring attempts when Rose was on the move were really efficient. His runners and pull ups were all good. His jump shots were what brought him down and he only shot 38% on Jump Shots.

                                                                        FGM     FGM
Shot Type Detail	        FGM	FGA	FG%	eFG%	BLKA	%AST    %UAST
Cutting Layup Shot	        6	9	66.7	66.7	0	83.3	16.7
Driving Bank Hook Shot	        1	1	100	100	0	0.0	100
Driving Bank shot	        8	10	80.0	80.0	0	12.5	87.5
Driving Dunk Shot	        0	0	0.0	0.0	0	0.0	0.0
Driving Finger Roll Layup Shot	17	23	73.9	73.9	0	5.9	94.1
Driving Floating Bank Jump Shot	5	7	71.4	71.4	0	20.0	80.0
Driving Floating Jump Shot	18	29	62.1	62.1	0	50.0	50.0
Driving Hook Shot	        3	3	100	100	0	33.3	66.7
Driving Layup Shot	        95	170	55.9	55.9	15	20.0	80.0
Driving Reverse Dunk Shot	0	0	0.0	0.0	0	0.0	0.0
Driving Reverse Layup Shot	13	20	65.0	65.0	2	30.8	69.2

http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/201565/stats/shooting/

His FG pct on drives was 44.6 pct before Jan 1 and 58 pct after Jan 1, can't copy and paste.

http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/news/derrick-rose-chicago-bulls-mvp-point-guard-jimmy-butler-injury/148ysjsxjugtf1c0kufcshncbr

Over the past two years as we've seen him fight to get back to where he was, Rose simply hasn't had those advantages in speed, quickness, and finishing ability, which has exacerbated the effect of his questionable shot selection. Every mid-range jump shot he took over the past two years looked worse because he wasn't compensating with efficient scoring at the rim, and it emphasized that he wasn't able to get to the rim the way he used to.

That's a huge difference but it's not for the entire 2nd half of the season. The article was published Feb 22nd. It's just counting games between Jan 5th (when he returned) and Feb 22nd. It was still a good stretch. It would be nice to have the #s for the rest of the season.

Thanks for the clarification.

The article was a good find. March was his best month from the field, though he struggled in the only 3 April games he played. I'm going to guess the % on drives was pretty good for the rest of the season. That does give some reason for hope. It's disappointing how rarely he got to the line considering how much he drives, though.

Here is another article, breaks down how Rose changed the way he attacks the rim, Nix might have posted it, he's posted a lot of them. As we have both pointed out, in the end it all comes down to how healthy Rose can stay. Im hoping Hornacek will encourage Rose to drive and dish more.

http://www.blogabull.com/2016/2/29/11130102/video-derrick-rose-chicago-bulls-finishing-rim-attack-dane-carbaugh-breakdown

Well, he's gotta cut down those low percentage mid range shots too (especially the long ones) and get to the line more. Any time he's thinking about shooting from 19 feet, I'd rather see him drive and try to get a better shot for himself, Melo, KP, or anyone else. It's not just an issue of health. It's shot selection too. Despite having so much talent, being healthy, and driving effectively, he still managed to have below average efficiency during the period we're talking about (.515 TS% in the 2nd half).
That is a good article, though, and I do have a little less pessimism about him.

Ryan McDonough, the team’s new GM, says you blew him away in the interview process with your preparation — your knowledge of the team’s roster, and your plans for how the team should play, especially on offense. So: What’s that offense going to look like after a year of struggling to find an identity without Nash?

I compare a lot of things to how it was when I actually played in Phoenix, back in the day, with Kevin Johnson. We got into the offense really quickly. If you can get it in the post, or penetrate and kick out, and get that early shot in the first seven seconds, or maybe eight seconds of the shot clock …

Wait, now. “Seven seconds” is a buzzword in Phoenix.

Yeah, yeah, let’s stick with eight. Statistics say in the first eight seconds, you shoot a much higher percentage. A lot of it depends on what kind of players you have. I knew they had [Goran] Dragic, who can fly up and down the court. And obviously now, with Eric Bledsoe, those two guys jell perfectly.

You guys were either no. 1 or no. 2 in midrange jumpers, and fell way below the league’s average in 3-point attempts. Do you want to change that?

Oh, yeah. We gotta get rid of that long 2. I’m not opposed to the middle jumper, in that 15- or 16-foot range. I think all but two teams that were in the playoffs, their effective field goal percentages were above 51 percent. If you can shoot 15-footers and shoot 52 percent, OK, you’re beating the average. You can’t totally discount those shots.

Especially as defenses get better, sometimes they are the only open shots you can get. You’re not getting a corner 3 or a dunk every time down against the Pacers.

Right. We’ll take a look at it all. But the ones we have to eliminate are the ones that are within 4 or 5 feet of the 3-point line. Those are low-percentage shots worth two points.

What kind of system are you going to lean on? Every team is a pick-and-roll team to some degree, but what kind of stuff will serve as the bread and butter — side pick-and-rolls, the old Utah flex, Rick Adelman corner stuff, or something else?

You have to get a read on your players and what suits them the best. When you look at the game today, with the rule changes — that’s why everyone is going to some sort of pick-and-roll. The rules are, you can’t touch that guy with your hands. It’s not like the old days, where you could hand check.

You played with some guys who were pretty good at that handchecking thing.

Right, right. It gives such an advantage to the point guards out there, if you have a good one. And we have two of them. If you can execute well, you’re going to get good shots.

Everyone wants to know if you can really play Goran and Eric together defensively — if Goran can really defend shooting guards. But look across the league: How many teams have backcourts that really scare you, in terms of giving up size?

You’re gonna hit those teams.

Sure. But it’s not like you’re scared to play smaller against Mike Conley and Tony Allen, or Tony Parker and Danny Green, right? There aren’t that many Kobes out there.

Right. There will be some mismatches you have to worry about, but we think that with the tag team of Goran and Eric — Eric’s got the bulldog strength, so that if we want to try to keep a bigger guard off the post, maybe he’s better suited to that. We can tag-team a great player like a Kobe. We can put someone on him for a little bit, and then stick another guy on him and change the look, and have someone with full energy on him at all times.

Will one of them emerge as the “point guard” — the one who really handles the ball 75 percent of the time? Or will it be an even split? Does it even matter anymore?

No. Sometimes it might shake out one way or another, but our vision is to be a good rebounding team, where we can just get the ball and hit the first guy you see. And in our set offense, depending on the plays we run, maybe it’s Goran one time with Eric off the ball, but Eric goes on the ball for another set of plays. We’ll have to get a feel for it.

Bledsoe’s pick-and-roll stats were off-the-charts awesome last season, to the point it surprised me. Will that change as he plays 35 minutes, a lot against starters, and maybe as teams don’t go under screens against him? Is he ready to be a starter?

We’ll find out. When we got Kevin Johnson from Cleveland, he was a backup point guard. And then Cotton [Fitzsimmons] throws him in to be a starter, right alongside me, and he just took off. Eric has been champing at the bit for at least a year now, maybe two, to show he can be that guy that plays 35 minutes a game.

Is there room in the league for posting up anymore? Will we see Marcin Gortat get 10 post touches a game?

Absolutely. If you can find a guy that can post up inside and be effective, whether it’s a center, power forward — heck, you could put a point guard down there. It’s the same concept of creating some sort of double-team that allows you to have a four-on-three. Whether we do that from the post or with pick-and-rolls — we’ll figure that out.

Yeah, it seems like teams use post-ups more now as a way to create passes rather than shots.

You can use it that way, depending on who it is. I mean, when you watch Miami play, you can stick LeBron there in the post and let him dictate what’s going to go on. But you do hope your good post-up players offensively are good passers. Then you can really do different things.

You guys hired Mike Longabardi from Boston. I assume this means you’ll run the Tom Thibodeau defense that swept the league — trying to keep all pick-and-rolls toward the sideline, on one side of the floor, and dropping your big men back into help position instead of having them trap up high like Miami does?

I always like to keep the ball on the side. When I played point guard, and I got stuck on the side, it was always more difficult for me than when I could get around and into the middle of the court — where I could see everything. There are so many more things that become available when you get into the middle. That’s what I like to do, and we hired Mike, who has run Boston’s defense the last three years. We’ve looked at a lot of things they do, I’ve watched them, and I see a lot of things I like to do. So we’ll go that way, and if things don’t work out, we’ll adjust.

Do you like small ball? All the big teams did really well in the playoffs this season.

The difference is that when you’re small on the defensive end, when teams break you down, you can really get in trouble. You have no real shot-blockers, and the rebounding gets tough. Obviously, I think there’s a use for small ball.

You mentioned effective field goal percentage before. People tell me you’re a numbers guy. What numbers do you like to use?

I’m a math guy. I was an accounting major, so I like numbers. I look at all that stuff, and I use it as kind of background information. When you look at a five-man lineup, sometimes that’s helpful, and sometimes it’s not. You don’t know who they’re playing against, for instance. The one thing I really like to show players, which I don’t think a lot of them actually look at, is just simple shot charts. Where do they shoot the ball well from? And where don’t they?

You’d be surprised how many times I ask a player, “If I make a play for you to shoot from the free throw line, that’s a great shot for you, right?” And the guy will say, “Oh, yeah, absolutely.” And then I’ll pull out the sheet and show him he only shot 34 percent last year from that spot. I don’t think they understand where they shoot well from.http://grantland.com/the-triangle/qa-new-phoenix-head-coach-jeff-hornacek-on-the-rebuilding-suns-and-the-glory-days-of-the-jazz/

mreinman wrote:This was awesome!! Gonna be nice to finally have the holdouts here be forced to change their tune.

The one thing I really like to show players, which I don’t think a lot of them actually look at, is just simple shot charts. Where do they shoot the ball well from? And where don’t they?
You’d be surprised how many times I ask a player, “If I make a play for you to shoot from the free throw line, that’s a great shot for you, right?” And the guy will say, “Oh, yeah, absolutely.” And then I’ll pull out the sheet and show him he only shot 34 percent last year from that spot. I don’t think they understand where they shoot well from.http://grantland.com/the-triangle/qa-new-phoenix-head-coach-jeff-hornacek-on-the-rebuilding-suns-and-the-glory-days-of-the-jazz/

I think JH has the players he needs to play the way he wants to and it will be very interesting to see how much he's able to impact these players. Just picking up the tempo and aggressiveness will have an immediate impact IMO. I've always felt that the Knicks last year were playing too slow and you really want to be moving faster than the defense can react. When you slow it down and hold the ball you make it easier for the defense to force you into bad shots. JH knows this and will insist on a quicker pace.