martin wrote:mreinman wrote:martin wrote:mreinman wrote:I just rewatched the kentucky game. Towns is such a smart player and passes so well for such a young guy.
Drafting Ok4 over him would be a disaster.
Unfortunately, it will be hard to get Towns based on our chances of winning the lotto.
It's why your posting gets less and less attention. Knicks have the second worst record in the league.
No, I think that Towns will rise to number 1. Our chances of getting the first pick if we had the worst record is 25%ish and a 46% chance of getting top 2.
If we were the 2nd worst team then we have 39 percent chance to get top 2.
3 rorst, 31%.
So, if we are hoping for towns, is it not safe to say the chances are that we won't get him? Even if he end up with the second worst record?
Great. You've narrowed down your thinking to: Towns is going #1, if we don't have the #1 we probably won't get it. In spite of the fact that the Knicks currently have the second best chance and the #1 slot statistically doesn't gets the #1 pick and Towns is not the consensus #1 pick. This is not Duncan or LeBron we are talking about.
That is not my though process at all!
Chances of getting a top two pick if you have a bottom 3 record is at best (worst record) 46 percent. If towns goes 1 or 2, chances are we will not get him.
Finishing with the second worst record, we have a 55% chance of even getting a top 3 pick!! (hardly good odds).
Very good chance that Philly (1 back) moves past us and we are down to a 47% chance of top 3.
So for me who and many of us who really want towns, with his rising stock, I don't like our chances. And, its barely a coin flip if we even get a top 3.
so here is what phil is thinking ....