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Prediction Knicks win championship
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knicks1248
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10/9/2013  3:15 PM
dk7th wrote:
knicks1248 wrote:
tkf wrote:
Solace wrote:I think the Knicks path to a finals victory involves more luck than anything. There are two teams that, if healthy, I don't think we can beat. They are both in the east. They are the Heat and the Bulls. I don't think our odds are good against either. I think we can beat Indy, though it would be difficult. But Indy isn't in that upper class, IMHO. So, in my mind, our path to the finals, and ultimately a championship, is both the Heat and Bulls getting eliminated by other teams before the ECF. Not a likely scenario, but I think that's our one chance.

I have one question.. what evidence is there to suggest that we can beat indy, looking at how they pretty much man handled us last year, and we did nothing to address those issues?

luck or lightning in a bottle, health is always a concern for the knicks especially in recent history.

I would like to believe we are top tier, but we all know depth and talent is just part of the puzzle.

The areas that concern me is brains, defense, rebounding and coaching..

Brains = not picking up techs, getting suspended, silly fouls, bad (bail out) passing or selfish play.

Defense = guards gambling to much, bad rotaions (amare barg, melo) not bringing it on every play

Rebounding= no one on this roster is known as a very good rebounder, no one.

Coaching= Woodson can not rotate a deep bench at all, he's better when were injured and have 9 guys to rotate, and his playoff record scary bad..

Not trying to be pessimistic, but these issues are reality..

the knicks are a top 5 team in the east but that doesn't mean they are top-tier nba wide. and let's not get hung up on regular-season records since the knicks had beaucoup trouble in the playoffs last year.

western conference probably have 5 teams that are better than the knicks too.

the knicks are maybe-- maybe a top 8 team league wide but like closer to a 10-12 ranking, which is not going to get them to the conference finals this season.

How you base rankings on talent is completely over rated, basing odds to win the title on talent is also complete over rated, basing a championship team base on 50+ win regular season completely over rated..

I will admit, there are stretches or games during the regular season where you can tell if you have a champioship caliber team..

winning 50+ games and having too many bad losses (and the knicks, denver, and clips) had quite a few last season)) is a sign of a 1st or 2nd round bouncer.

Were not listed as top 5 (despite the depth) because of 3 things.. Coach, PG, amare..all three are suspect, you want to throw in melo's non commitment to effective D every game, and more assist, feel free..

I need to see our flaws corrected before i'm total convince..

ES
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dk7th
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10/9/2013  3:18 PM
TeamBall wrote:
tkf wrote:
TeamBall wrote:
tkf wrote:
TeamBall wrote:
tkf wrote:
djsunyc wrote:knicks are in the wnba now?

in the postseason, solid to great defensive teams (i.e. chi, indy, mia and probably nj) will be able to exploit bargnani's defense in a 7 game series. so whatever effect he will have offensively, will probably be nullified and then some on the defensive end. you will have the defense scrambling all over the place to cover for him. it is why novak got 0 pt last year. you just can't have defensive liabilities on the court for the playoffs.

woodson will probably use chandler + melo + artest alot more in the postseason with bargs mins getting lower as the series continues.

chi + mia have players the knicks just can not contain at all. and once you remove bargs and amare, then the frontcourt attack is nullified as well. nj just has crazy depth and savvy - don't see how the knicks get past them in a 7 game series either. they might be able to get past indy b/c they don't have a true takeover the game offensive player on the squad.

they didn't need it last year and could have easily beat us in 5 games had george hill not sat out... the pacers got better on paper this year too....

One thing to remember, their best player nullifies ours.. so in essence who is the true takeover game offensive player? I think that is very overrated.. because usually in the playoffs a true take over player does it on both ends of the floor... Miami beat the spurs because the were able to turn it up a notch defensively.. lebron nullified parker.. that was the deciding factor..

as soon as knicks fans come to the realization that having a volume scorer does not make a great player or winning formula the better off and less dissapointed they will be...


I don't really know if you can hang your hat on that too often. The year Dallas won the finals, I'm pretty sure Lebron was still better than Dirk.

LEBRON wasn't guarding dirk... and carmelo surely isn't dirk as well.. my point is.. Paul george guards carmelo... carmelo shot 32% when george was on him.. therefore the idea of having this one guy who can takeover is overstated so often by knick fans..

And lets be real.. dirk had moments where he came through big, that carried the mavs, but the mavs had different heroes.. from shawn marion, to chandler, to jason terry having a huge game....

in the end, the mavs Won as a TEAM... Great teams beat great players I guess...


The thing is that Hibbert was more of a problem that series than anything.

well again, it goes back to the TEAM thing... Hibbert, George, Hill, west, stephenson all were a problem... we had no answer for any of them, and it showed, all of them left a huge mark on this series...


Yeah not arguments here about that. I just don't think, when comparing the Knicks to the Pacers, that it comes down to Melo vs George. They had a lot of things going for them outside of that matchup.

sure it does. you take away the one "dimension" of a one-dimensional team and the series becomes attrition defensively. the knicks were mediocre defensively going up against a superior defensive squad. the pacers made it about defense and the knicks had no answer for that. that's what woodson gets for being too reliant on anthony for too much of the time, instead of focussing on creating a cohesive, resilient, adaptable team-- a team able to make adjustments and forcing the opposing coach to do the same. the knicks are doomed if they stick with melo and that usage rate of his. all it takes is an elite defender like george or james-- last i checked both players were in the eastern conference. we might as well throw deng and pierce in there. horford and milsap are pretty good too. dang that's a lot of forwards for melo to deal with, isn't it?

knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%
TeamBall
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10/9/2013  3:19 PM
tkf wrote:
TeamBall wrote:
tkf wrote:
TeamBall wrote:
tkf wrote:
TeamBall wrote:
tkf wrote:
djsunyc wrote:knicks are in the wnba now?

in the postseason, solid to great defensive teams (i.e. chi, indy, mia and probably nj) will be able to exploit bargnani's defense in a 7 game series. so whatever effect he will have offensively, will probably be nullified and then some on the defensive end. you will have the defense scrambling all over the place to cover for him. it is why novak got 0 pt last year. you just can't have defensive liabilities on the court for the playoffs.

woodson will probably use chandler + melo + artest alot more in the postseason with bargs mins getting lower as the series continues.

chi + mia have players the knicks just can not contain at all. and once you remove bargs and amare, then the frontcourt attack is nullified as well. nj just has crazy depth and savvy - don't see how the knicks get past them in a 7 game series either. they might be able to get past indy b/c they don't have a true takeover the game offensive player on the squad.

they didn't need it last year and could have easily beat us in 5 games had george hill not sat out... the pacers got better on paper this year too....

One thing to remember, their best player nullifies ours.. so in essence who is the true takeover game offensive player? I think that is very overrated.. because usually in the playoffs a true take over player does it on both ends of the floor... Miami beat the spurs because the were able to turn it up a notch defensively.. lebron nullified parker.. that was the deciding factor..

as soon as knicks fans come to the realization that having a volume scorer does not make a great player or winning formula the better off and less dissapointed they will be...


I don't really know if you can hang your hat on that too often. The year Dallas won the finals, I'm pretty sure Lebron was still better than Dirk.

LEBRON wasn't guarding dirk... and carmelo surely isn't dirk as well.. my point is.. Paul george guards carmelo... carmelo shot 32% when george was on him.. therefore the idea of having this one guy who can takeover is overstated so often by knick fans..

And lets be real.. dirk had moments where he came through big, that carried the mavs, but the mavs had different heroes.. from shawn marion, to chandler, to jason terry having a huge game....

in the end, the mavs Won as a TEAM... Great teams beat great players I guess...


The thing is that Hibbert was more of a problem that series than anything.

well again, it goes back to the TEAM thing... Hibbert, George, Hill, west, stephenson all were a problem... we had no answer for any of them, and it showed, all of them left a huge mark on this series...


Yeah not arguments here about that. I just don't think, when comparing the Knicks to the Pacers, that it comes down to Melo vs George. They had a lot of things going for them outside of that matchup.

I agree with that, which is why I said, and again, not saying you used this argument, but some knick fans keep saying that the pacers don't have that one player to take over games offensively.. and I think that is an overstatement since the knicks don't either.. especially when paul George is guarding the guy most knick fans feel is "that guy"..

It is bigger than that as you said...there were so many mismatches on the floor... too much size, length, athleticism... it was a major problem for the knicks that did extend well beyond the carmelo/ George matchup...


I tend to agree with that. Melo has had games where he's gotten hot but I have to see him shoot better in the playoffs before I pin my hopes on that.
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gunsnewing
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10/9/2013  3:29 PM    LAST EDITED: 10/9/2013  3:33 PM
It was simple and many pointed out before the playoffs that if we get good Melo who shoots 48% and moves the ball. Makes quicker decisions with the ball we would've been in good shape. We got 39% playoff Melo who holds on to the ball and hoist 30+ footers with under 4secs left on the clock. And he had help from his buddy JR. When Melo wasn't doing this JR was. Boy reliving that Indy series is tough
Solace
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10/9/2013  4:05 PM
tkf wrote:
Solace wrote:I think the Knicks path to a finals victory involves more luck than anything. There are two teams that, if healthy, I don't think we can beat. They are both in the east. They are the Heat and the Bulls. I don't think our odds are good against either. I think we can beat Indy, though it would be difficult. But Indy isn't in that upper class, IMHO. So, in my mind, our path to the finals, and ultimately a championship, is both the Heat and Bulls getting eliminated by other teams before the ECF. Not a likely scenario, but I think that's our one chance.

I have one question.. what evidence is there to suggest that we can beat indy, looking at how they pretty much man handled us last year, and we did nothing to address those issues?

Evidence, I'm not sure. I think the Knicks could've won last years series if they played a bit smarter and Tyson handled himself better. We couldn't even use Novak, who would've been lethal if not for his downsides. Now we have Bargnani, who I think will give us the best of what Copeland and Novak could've done last year. We are also a bit tougher than we were before. So, I think we have a chance. If I was to put a number on it, I would say 40% against the Pacers in a playoff series. I still don't think Indy is *that* great and I would not necessarily be surprised if we could muster a better record than they have once again. My statement was just that I think we have a chance against Indy and the Nets in the playoffs. I do not think we have much of a chance against the Bulls or Heat.

Wishing everyone well. I enjoyed posting here for a while, but as I matured I realized this forum isn't for me. We all evolve. Thanks for the memories everyone.
mattshaw78
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10/11/2013  6:46 AM
smackeddog wrote:
mattshaw78 wrote:I don't want to be a downer but I think we can't win with Melo.

Well, in the 2 years we've had him, you're the first to express such a view, therefore you must me wrong.

Took me two years to notice that when the offense is stagnant and the team is not passing the ball, Melo holds onto the rock too long and force too many shots. I wish they can distribute the ball like they did the first quarter of last year season

BlueSeats "I like anyone who can make Lebron cry. Melo seems to do it a lot."
Bonn1997
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10/11/2013  6:49 AM
mattshaw78 wrote:
smackeddog wrote:
mattshaw78 wrote:I don't want to be a downer but I think we can't win with Melo.

Well, in the 2 years we've had him, you're the first to express such a view, therefore you must me wrong.

Took me two years to notice that when the offense is stagnant and the team is not passing the ball, Melo holds onto the rock too long and force too many shots. I wish they can distribute the ball like they did the first quarter of last year season

Having a healthy Jason Kidd makes a big difference.

yellowboy90
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10/11/2013  9:39 AM
Bonn1997 wrote:
mattshaw78 wrote:
smackeddog wrote:
mattshaw78 wrote:I don't want to be a downer but I think we can't win with Melo.

Well, in the 2 years we've had him, you're the first to express such a view, therefore you must me wrong.

Took me two years to notice that when the offense is stagnant and the team is not passing the ball, Melo holds onto the rock too long and force too many shots. I wish they can distribute the ball like they did the first quarter of last year season

Having a healthy Jason Kidd makes a big difference.

Having a healthy Melo makes a bigger difference.

Bonn1997
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10/11/2013  1:03 PM
yellowboy90 wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
mattshaw78 wrote:
smackeddog wrote:
mattshaw78 wrote:I don't want to be a downer but I think we can't win with Melo.

Well, in the 2 years we've had him, you're the first to express such a view, therefore you must me wrong.

Took me two years to notice that when the offense is stagnant and the team is not passing the ball, Melo holds onto the rock too long and force too many shots. I wish they can distribute the ball like they did the first quarter of last year season

Having a healthy Jason Kidd makes a big difference.

Having a healthy Melo makes a bigger difference.


We were talking about ball movement vs. stagnant offense. A healthy Melo probably hurts the team in that regard because he'll have the ball even more. (Or maybe that's what you meant by a "bigger difference.")
nixluva
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10/11/2013  1:43 PM
I still have to remind everyone that Melo didn't start off the year shooting too much. I don't think he gets a fair shake sometimes because he only started to increase his output when it was clear the other guys weren't getting it done. My guess is that with this much improved roster that Melo will take fewer shots and more shots in the flow of the offense.
Bonn1997
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10/11/2013  2:01 PM
His whole career has been a ton of shooting with poor ball movement
Bonn1997
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10/11/2013  2:04 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:His whole career has been a ton of shooting with poor ball movement

Depending on the month last year, he had at least six and sometimes closer to fifteen shot attempts per assist.
IronWillGiroud
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10/11/2013  2:06 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:His whole career has been a ton of shooting with poor ball movement

Depending on the month last year, he had at least six and sometimes closer to fifteen shot attempts per assist.

you don't have to be a master of the fancy numbers to know that 15 attempts per assist is a little ridiculous,

wow

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gunsnewing
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10/11/2013  2:11 PM
Wow indeed. No excuses for that either. If we see more of that I will hold the coach accountable
gunsnewing
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10/11/2013  2:12 PM
With that said you don't need numbers to see that. You can see it with your own eyes
IronWillGiroud
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10/11/2013  2:21 PM
gunsnewing wrote:With that said you don't need numbers to see that. You can see it with your own eyes

i feel that the fancy numbers can't hurt, they can only help you

The Will, check out the Official Home of Will's GameDay Art: http://tinyurl.com/thewillgameday
yellowboy90
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10/11/2013  3:11 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:
yellowboy90 wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
mattshaw78 wrote:
smackeddog wrote:
mattshaw78 wrote:I don't want to be a downer but I think we can't win with Melo.

Well, in the 2 years we've had him, you're the first to express such a view, therefore you must me wrong.

Took me two years to notice that when the offense is stagnant and the team is not passing the ball, Melo holds onto the rock too long and force too many shots. I wish they can distribute the ball like they did the first quarter of last year season

Having a healthy Jason Kidd makes a big difference.

Having a healthy Melo makes a bigger difference.


We were talking about ball movement vs. stagnant offense. A healthy Melo probably hurts the team in that regard because he'll have the ball even more. (Or maybe that's what you meant by a "bigger difference.")

I know a non healthy melo over compensates and the assist to shot attempts does not necessarily mean he doesn't move the ball. The stats of how many passes he makes once he received it does. That was terrible during the Boston series and some of the Indy series.

nixluva
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10/11/2013  3:12 PM
I fully expect that Melo will be more willing to pass with this roster than last year's roster. It does matter who you have on the court with you. Kidd, Prigs, Shump, Tyson, KMart ... often refused to shoot the ball. Some of you guys may have forgotten this, but I haven't.
Bonn1997
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10/11/2013  3:28 PM
yellowboy90 wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
yellowboy90 wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
mattshaw78 wrote:
smackeddog wrote:
mattshaw78 wrote:I don't want to be a downer but I think we can't win with Melo.

Well, in the 2 years we've had him, you're the first to express such a view, therefore you must me wrong.

Took me two years to notice that when the offense is stagnant and the team is not passing the ball, Melo holds onto the rock too long and force too many shots. I wish they can distribute the ball like they did the first quarter of last year season

Having a healthy Jason Kidd makes a big difference.

Having a healthy Melo makes a bigger difference.


We were talking about ball movement vs. stagnant offense. A healthy Melo probably hurts the team in that regard because he'll have the ball even more. (Or maybe that's what you meant by a "bigger difference.")

I know a non healthy melo over compensates and the assist to shot attempts does not necessarily mean he doesn't move the ball. The stats of how many passes he makes once he received it does. That was terrible during the Boston series and some of the Indy series.

I doubt it makes a difference if you look at assists vs total passes since his teammates score at about an average rate. A max worth wing player is gonna have about 2 or 3 shots per assist, not 6 to 15.

Bonn1997
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10/11/2013  3:29 PM
nixluva wrote:I fully expect that Melo will be more willing to pass with this roster than last year's roster. It does matter who you have on the court with you. Kidd, Prigs, Shump, Tyson, KMart ... often refused to shoot the ball. Some of you guys may have forgotten this, but I haven't.

OK, what does that have to do with his number from his 9 year career?
Prediction Knicks win championship

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