• 10-2 Previous 12 (.833%).

• 9-1 Previous 10 (.900%).

• 7-0 undefeated since Josh Hart (.1000%).

• 4-0 undefeated since Mitchell Robinson's return (.1000%).

Special Addition (NBA's Top 8)
1.) Milwaukee: 45-17 (.726%).
2.) Boston: 45-18 (.714%) -0.5
3.) Denver: 44-19 (.698%) -1.5

4.) Philadelphia: 40-21 (.656%). -4.5.
5.) Memphis: 38-23 (.623%) -6.5

6.) Cleveland: 39-26 (.600%) -7.5
7.) Sacramento: 36-25 (.590%) -8.5
8.) NEW YORK KNICKS: 37-27 (.578%) -9.0

March 2nd & March 3rd games:
Thursday Night:
76ers (4) @ Dallas.

Friday Night Lights:
Boston (2) vs. Brooklyn.
Denver (3) vs. Grizzlies (5).
Knicks (8) @ Miami.

PS:

Cleveland Cavaliers = 1-4 previous 5 games with 4/5 of their next 5 games up against both @ Boston (1x), vs. Celtics (x2) and @ Miami (1x) and @ Miami (x2).

NYKMentality wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

NYKMentality wrote:We'll see how it goes man.

Might not have enough time to catch Philadelphia due to -6.5 games back but with Cleveland?

We're actually only 4.5 back of Cleveland for the 4th seed.

And we've still got 1 game against them too.

Hypothetically speaking we're -3.5 back of Cleveland (including the W over them).

From there on out?

Cleveland loses 2 in a row?
Knicks win 2 in a row?

And we're literally 1.0 back with potentially 10+ games remaining aka potential dog fight.

You're looking at it from a micro view , macro view is always better.

Like I say, Cleveland is a .628 team over 3/4's of a season. Even if they went 11-10, that means 17-5 for the Knicks, regardless of the common game. Give to the Knicks and we're still talking 11-9 and 16-5.

Those are looong odds.

Verrrrrry long on the Knicks side and pretty long on the Cavs side.

I'm not telling anything other than the odds here.

Funny how the very 1st time you ever emerged into this thread you tried kicking down doors with robot simulators and preaching absolutely robotic "long odds" talk (instead of real NBA basketball).

You were wrong.

I wasn't never looking @ anything from a "micro view".

I was taking common sense because I know how awesome this 2023 team is and how talented these kids truly are and how red hot on 🔥 we are in compared to everyone else except for only Milwaukee and it's because unlike your robot simulators I actually watch the games with my own two eyes.

Remember you telling me on February 25th about how your simulators were telling you I'm wrong as I was preaching NY only 4.5 back from Cleveland for our 4th seed back on only February 24th right before heading into @ Washington while -4.5 back of Cleveland for the 4 seed and 6.5 bank of Philadelphia for the 3 seed?

Well now look.

#3 Seed = Philadelphia @ -3.5 (no longer -6.5).
#4 Seed = Cleveland @ -1.5 (no longer -4.5).

#4 Cleveland = 39-26 (+1.5)
#5 New York = 37-27 (-1.5).

It's no longer February 24th anymore. It's now only March 1st.

Care to talk about those super long odds now?

Sure. Happy to. Especially since I hope the Knicks beat the long odds. Would be better if you weren't behaving so immaturely, but we can't have everything.

Odds of finishing 3rd are now 3.7%, so they are increasing.

Knicks now have 6 more loses than Philly with 21 (Sixers)/18 (Knicks) games to play.

Now, because of tie-breaker scenarios, the Knicks are going to have to finish at least 1 game in front of the Sixers to finish higher. A tie will almost certainly go to the Sixers (given their season series is locked at 2-2).

I can explain why if necessary.

Okay, so what has to happen for the Knicks to finish one game ahead.

Let's go back to your original declaration of 50 Knicks wins.

That's still 13-5 (.722) the rest of the way, on top of 7 in a row and 9 of 10. That's a 20-5 (.800) and 22-6 finish to the year.

That's be awesome and I hope it happens, and not impossible but improbable.

But let's say it happens.

Great.

To finish behind the Knicks, Sixers would need to finish no better than 49-33. That's 9-12 (.429) the rest of the way for a team who has played .656 for 61 NBA games.

That's be awesome and I hope it happens, and not impossible but improbable.

Factor in two different improbabilities (they don't play one another) together and you multiply (not add) the improbability.

That's why not only does this https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html methodology greatly favor the Sixers, ALL models do, including Vegas.

I'd be willing to bet almost all NBA knowledgable humans would greatly favor the Sixers too just looking at the basics.

And we haven't even talked about the Cavs (.600), who IF the Knicks finish with 50 wins, has to go 11-6 to match, with the NBA's easiest remaining NBA SOS - https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength (with two Nets games counting among their "tough" opponents).

And none of this is even considering the Knicks go ... say 11-7 (.611) ... the rest of the way, which is a VERY good record. Then it's 7-14 Sixers and 9-9 Cavs.

Again, NONE of these things are impossible, and I hope they come to pass. And exactly like last year when you didn't understand how highly improbable 60 wins was (but couldn't be talked down of it at the time ... like now), I HOPE your improbable desire comes to pass.

It just isn't likely it will.

NYKMentality wrote:Knick Of Time it feels as if you're now switching your attention and focus back to mostly Philly in order to stay away from talking Cleveland)

Your "feelings" are off, which is the whole point.

Let's kill two birds with one stone.

I first posted in this thread 2/23, which was one week ago, not the "two full weeks" you "feel."

My return here occurred on 2/8, two full weeks before you even posted the thing about the 3rd seed. Despite how you "feel" I was not biding my time waiting for you to post something I didn't know you would.

So, that said.

Look at the post. What I responded to was your post ALL about the Sixers and that 3rd place wasn't out of reach. I responded that you seemed to be making the same calculus you did for 60 wins (your 'feelings' rather than math).

I mentioned Cleveland because catching both (to wind up in 3rd) does affect the probability. Still does (if you understood probability).

What were PC odds like not even 2 full weeks ago when you posted 1st?

Why are you asking, it's literally a page back.

Only asking you because...

@ the time you started posting links for me telling me how Cleveland was a long shot the Cavaliers were 4th seed and +4.5 ahead of NY and the Knicks were 7th seed Play-in -4.5 back of Cleveland but yet now fast forward not even 10 games later and we're already 5th seed only -1.5 back of Cleveland.

You do know Cleveland is only 1-4 their previous 5 games, right?

We're 5-0 those same 5 games.

Why aren't you at least speaking on it instead of ignoring it?

It hasn't come up.

And yes, I'm aware.

Cleveland is still favored to finish 4, though the Knicks odds have certainly increased, currently at 17.2%. The odds still favor the Cavs to win enough of their NBA easiest SOS games to stay 1 or 0 wins ahead of the Knicks.

And since I suspect you don't understand this, that doesn't mean the Knicks won't finish 3rd or 4th. Some team WILL win the lottery with a 14% chance.

It's probability. Not yes or now, not will or won't, not can't or will. It's just odds, which means the Knicks could finish 4th or 3rd, they just probably won't, though I hope they do.

Knickoftime wrote:I don't think you realize the scale of the probability you're playing with here.

And I don't think you've realized how quickly the Knicks have gone from a 7th seed and -4.5 back of Cleveland to the 5th seed and only -1.5 back of Cleveland's 4th seed (it's happened over night too).

And I don't think you've realized how bad both of Philadelphia and Cleveland have recently started to play (in comparison to New York).

Philly = 1-3 previous 4 games (.250%) after Dallas beats them tonight.

Cleveland: = 1-4 previous 5 games (.200%).

New York: = 7-0 + 9-1 previous 10 games.

No longer -6.5 behind Philly (only -3.5 after Miami's W tomorrow) and no longer 4-5 behind Cleveland (only -1.5).

Knickoftime wrote:

NYKMentality wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:I don't think you realize the scale of the probability you're playing with here.

And I don't think you've realized how quickly the Knicks have gone from a 7th seed and -4.5 back of Cleveland to the 5th seed and only -1.5 back of Cleveland's 4th seed (it's happened over night too).

And I don't think you've realized how bad both of Philadelphia and Cleveland have recently started to play (in comparison to New York).

This is getting very, very odd.

I've literally detailed the exact math of what each team's last 18-20 games looks like, and you keep responding over and over 'i don't think you realize...'

Strange.

Because your computer percentages are becoming more and more wrong (on a nightly basis).

When you started posting in this thread?

• Knicks were -4.5 behind Cleveland but now only -1.5 behind Cleveland (+3.0 games gained).

• Knicks were -6.5 behind Philadelphia but now only -3.5 behind Philadelphia (+3.0 games gained) after NYs win over Miami tomorrow.

Knicks = 7-0 previous 7 (.1000%).

Vs.

Cleveland = 1-4 previous 5 (.200%).

76ers = 1-4 previous 5 games (.200%) after Milwaukee beats them Saturday.

Miami = 1-5 previous 6 games (.166%).

These are 4 examples/4 teams of clueless simulators who didn't know how to predict (any of the above) not even 2 weeks ago.

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/KnicksMuse/status/1631697745948946433

Knickoftime wrote:

Panos wrote:Honestly, guys, whatever will happen, will happen. You guys are never going to see it eye to eye.

We 'don't see eye to eye' in the same way we 'didn't see eye to eye' about the Knicks winning 60 games last year.

Make of that what you will.

You're talking two different languages. One of you is talking mathematic probabilities, the other is saying what he hopes/feels in his bones.
Even after said and done, whatever the outcome at the conclusion of the season, you both still will not have resolution.
If the Knicks defy all the odds and take the 3rd seed, you'll both be right. NYKM's hopes/bones will be right, and your probabilites will (still) be right in spite of the Knicks defying them.
If they don't, NYKM won't mention it and have another prediction for the playoffs. Rinse repeat.

Knickoftime wrote:

martin wrote:And by 20th most difficult, you can also mean 10th easiest.

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/KnicksMuse/status/1631697745948946433

For context, Cleveland is 30 of 30.
https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength
For further context:
Sixers: .531
Knicks: .496 (-35)
Cavs: .454 (-42)
And the Cavs only have 17 games.
And two of their over-.500 "tough"; opponents pulling UP the SOS% is the Nets.

Listen it's no beef it's imo you entered a thread I've worked hard on and immediately started speaking talking showing random calculations to me.

And one's who imo don't truly watch NBA basketball with their real eyes @ least not quite we all on UK witness on a nightly basis is all I'm really trying to say where I'm coming from.

Me and my daughter memories we watched all Team USA both men and women Olympic games of all sports the 🏀 Robot hit that layup free throw 3 and half court shot @ Olympics it was pretty neat but we were there watching for the basketball players and no Robots are smarter than our elite global NBA players of today (playing) when it comes to sports (@ least not yet).

🌎🎖️🏀🥇🌎

You've yet to even really discuss how Cleveland is literally only 1-4 previous 5 games (1-4 dude).

🔹Cavaliers went on a 3 game losing streak.
🔹Won 1 game.
🔹Then lost their last game too.

Man.

👇

(and on the verge of having to also play all 4 of Boston (1x) and MIA (2x) & 76ers (1x) coming up + our Knicks (1x) too?

If Cleveland goes 1-4 what are their percentages of keeping that 4th seed if and only if the 5th seed Knicks remain anything close to 9-1 🏀previous 10 while only 1.0 back after tonight?

But for whatever reason we're not talking about it 🤷‍♂️

Because if it were our Knicks of 2023?
March 3rd?
Playoff push?
Regular Season Pressure?
1-4 Previous 5?
And coming off yet another L?

There's no way we'd be talking about math right now our players would be feeling NYC Media Pressure and Ultimate Knicks would be breaking our 2023 brand new computers and going MARCH MADNESS right about right now.

So for me (for me) yet it kinda feels teams like Miami, Atlanta, Brooklyn and now both Cleveland/Philadelphia all get their free passes when it comes to their recent losing.

No questioning their players recent advanced statistics either with +/-.

but when it's Knicks let's bring out simulations or Stephen A's to tell us what we can't do not what we can do but what we can't do?

Knicks looking to go 8-0 previous 8 games tonight man.

My mathematical mathematics shows me how yes there's a strong chance a great chance we hawk down a slumping Cleveland team.

(just as we've recently flew right over both of Brooklyn and Miami and distanced ourselves from all of Atlanta and everyone else).

I graduated from the school of 1990s hard knox where I know we're only -1.0 back with a win tonight @ Miami tonight.

When I created this thread earlier last month @ -4.5 back of Cleveland I told myself go get red hot Knicks and I know we can catch those Donovan Mitchell suckers. And here we are. Nowhere close to -4.5 back of Cavaliers and we've got Mitch back now too.

You entered right @ the Knick of time because these kids of NY are on 🔥 right now man lets enjoy just watching these kids continue proving these online numbers and all the ESPN Media heads out there wrong 🤝🏀🤝

We've all got ourselves an 8:00 game to catch tonight KOT Friday Night Lights we'll continue talking NY ball afterwards.

🤖👾🤖Vegas odds say Knicks favorites by only -3.5 points @ Miami tonight I laughed I say we win NY by 18+ Points tonight who you think gets closer NYKM or those Las Vegas numbers?

NYKMentality wrote:Listen it's no beef it's imo you entered a thread I've worked hard on and immediately started speaking talking showing random calculations to me.

They aren't random.

You don't understand them.

That doesn't make them random.

And one's who imo don't truly watch NBA basketball with their real eyes @ least not quite we all on UK witness on a nightly basis is all I'm really trying to say where I'm coming from.

Your opinion isn't based on any evidence. You're making assumptions without a basis.

And I know people who watch NBA basketball with their real eyes who have made really dumbass predictions.

Do you?

You've yet to even really discuss how Cleveland is literally only 1-4 previous 5 games (1-4 dude).

🔹Cavaliers went on a 3 game losing streak.
🔹Won 1 game.
🔹Then lost their last game too.

Okay...let's.

When the Knicks were 10-13 I told fans to calm the f down, it's a long season.

When the Knicks lost 5 in a row after winning 8, I told fans to calm the f down, that's just how a long NBA season sometimes go.

When the Knicks lost 4 in a row and 6 of 8 in early Jan, I said the same.

Now, take a deep breath...

The Cavs are 83-64 (.565) over their last 147 NBA games.

Because I both respect math AND watch professional sports at the same time AND remember what I've seen year after year, I'm not putting that much weight in the last 5 games, I did not and would not in any of the Knicks stretches I just mentioned.

The smart money is on the big picture, which is both math AND observation. The Cavs are a good team (over 150 games) with a (very) favorable schedule.

But YOU think the Cavs suddenly became an .200 team and will continue to play poorly for some reason

Why?

Because you prefer the idea that they do.

Knicks can absolutely catch the Cavs. But the Knicks can also cool down and the Cavs can also heat up too. Which I know because I actually pay attention to what I watch.

But in terms of probability, it's much more likely that the Cavs and Sixers will play the next 20 games a lot like they've played the last 60/140 games, and not like they played the last 5.

That's it.

That's the entire deal.

You just don't understand that.

You're all about recency bias and homerism (and don't say you aren't).

So for me (for me) yet it kinda feels teams like Miami, Atlanta, Brooklyn and now both Cleveland/Philadelphia all get their free passes when it comes to their recent losing.

As I just said...recency bias.

But you still don't fundamentally understand. The math I've been citing isn't based on human element. No one is getting or giving a free pass.

The probability models I've been citing have existed for years before the last 10 days. Nothing is any different for Miami, Atlanta, Brooklyn and now both Cleveland/Philadelphia than it is for anyone else. And YES, last 10 and streak IS calculated, which I've already told you, and they are weighted into the equation in a way NBA history suggests they should be weighted.

You keep implying the last 4 or 5 games aren't being considered at all, but they are. They just are being given the weight YOU think it should get, despite the fact you have no historical evidence backing up what you think.

The Warriors lost 4 of 5 then immediately won 4 in a row.

Spurs went 2-23 including 15 losses in a row...and then won two in a row.

The point being, you're putting a lot weight in a week's worth of games when professional sports scream at us fans EVERY season "DON'T PUT TOO MUCH WEIGHT IN MALL SAMPLE SIZES!"

I bet YOU were feeling pretty good about 60 wins after 5-1 last year. Right on target!

Sports have solid lessons to teach us if we pay attention. Many fans aren't interested.