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J. Randle
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martin
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4/24/2021  7:07 PM
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TripleThreat
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5/8/2021  11:22 PM
jskinny35 wrote:For me the issue will be - do you pay a #2 guy the salary of a #1 guy... just because we don't have a #1 guy? I think you don't b/c there goes the money available in case we can obtain a #1 guy in the future. He's our best player no question - I still say we sell high instead of waiting for the two most likely possibilities - he keeps overachieving and we max him out next season or he comes back to earth and we have a player with even less value heading to free agency. It's possible he doesn't hold his on court value but believe he will still want to be overpaid like most hard-working players in the league. And he would deserve it - just don't think we should lock in to 140mill contracts for a very good player. Package/sell high on draft night and try to get into the top 5. Plenty of stretch 4s we could look for (eg Gallo, Lauri) if Toppin doesn't find his game...


It's unfortunate your post was mostly overlooked because it brings up some real concerns.

The Knicks signed Randle as a street free agent. They can afford to wait after the end of next season to make a decision since they can use the excuse they want to wait to get Randle's full Bird Rights first. I'll give him credit, he's done everything he can to try to get a max deal from this season of play.

The Knicks can afford to wait, and they should. Some will say they risk Randle walking for nothing. Honestly I believe he's worth more to the Knicks than other teams would see him as worth something to them. Players like that aren't exactly easy to trade. I don't think another team will give up a top lottery pick in a package centered around Randle. Esp not in this upcoming draft.

Put it this way, other than RJ Barrett, no player on this team is currently "untradeable" by the front office. Given the right deal, everyone can be dealt except RJB.

One scenario is the Knicks trying to get involved in a Bradley Beal/Jaylen Brown deal as the third or fourth team. The Celtics end up with Beal but the rest might be fluid. Maybe Randle could move in that scenario in some fashion to a fourth team. It would help guys here to stop seeing Knicks as a participant in a traditional two team trade and start looking at 4 team mega trades where that open cap space is basically a sponge for draft picks.

ramtour420
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5/9/2021  3:21 AM
TripleThreat wrote:
jskinny35 wrote:For me the issue will be - do you pay a #2 guy the salary of a #1 guy... just because we don't have a #1 guy? I think you don't b/c there goes the money available in case we can obtain a #1 guy in the future. He's our best player no question - I still say we sell high instead of waiting for the two most likely possibilities - he keeps overachieving and we max him out next season or he comes back to earth and we have a player with even less value heading to free agency. It's possible he doesn't hold his on court value but believe he will still want to be overpaid like most hard-working players in the league. And he would deserve it - just don't think we should lock in to 140mill contracts for a very good player. Package/sell high on draft night and try to get into the top 5. Plenty of stretch 4s we could look for (eg Gallo, Lauri) if Toppin doesn't find his game...


It's unfortunate your post was mostly overlooked because it brings up some real concerns.

The Knicks signed Randle as a street free agent. They can afford to wait after the end of next season to make a decision since they can use the excuse they want to wait to get Randle's full Bird Rights first. I'll give him credit, he's done everything he can to try to get a max deal from this season of play.

The Knicks can afford to wait, and they should. Some will say they risk Randle walking for nothing. Honestly I believe he's worth more to the Knicks than other teams would see him as worth something to them. Players like that aren't exactly easy to trade. I don't think another team will give up a top lottery pick in a package centered around Randle. Esp not in this upcoming draft.

Put it this way, other than RJ Barrett, no player on this team is currently "untradeable" by the front office. Given the right deal, everyone can be dealt except RJB.

One scenario is the Knicks trying to get involved in a Bradley Beal/Jaylen Brown deal as the third or fourth team. The Celtics end up with Beal but the rest might be fluid. Maybe Randle could move in that scenario in some fashion to a fourth team. It would help guys here to stop seeing Knicks as a participant in a traditional two team trade and start looking at 4 team mega trades where that open cap space is basically a sponge for draft picks.

An All-Star that has drastically improved every year, durable as a brick wall, just entering his prime is not worth a draft pick to you? I disagree. Actually forget my opinion. That's a fact. Let me put it this way. An over the hill, injury prone, unwanted by their current team current and even former All-Stars are worth multiple first round picks ( as we have seen in EVERY trade in the last I don't know how many years)

So

Everything you have ever wanted is on the other side of fear- George Adair
TripleThreat
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5/9/2021  7:00 AM
ramtour420 wrote:

An All-Star that has drastically improved every year, durable as a brick wall, just entering his prime is not worth a draft pick to you? I disagree. Actually forget my opinion. That's a fact. Let me put it this way. An over the hill, injury prone, unwanted by their current team current and even former All-Stars are worth multiple first round picks ( as we have seen in EVERY trade in the last I don't know how many years)

So

No rational NBA team is giving up a top five lottery pick in this upcoming 2021 NBA draft for Julius Randle.

His defense is leaps better this year. He's reading the court better and not trying to force his offense against game flow. He's improved his scoring on all three levels. He carries a heavy offensive responsibility for this team but understands there are times he needs to be a facilitator. There is a nice clear synergy with Derrick Rose so far. Other teams are scheming for him defensively and he's still producing.

But his 3 point shooting is something nutty like hovering around 12 percentage points higher than his career average. He had an outlier season with the Pelicans but the rest was muddled. He has the benefit of long layoff periods because of the pandemic and he may just play better without crowds. Lots of players saw their percentages take an unprecedented kick in the bubble. More space on corner threes. Nothing moving behind the backboard. Same floor every night. Hyper focus on games since there's no other distractions. Now you have limited crowds, which still carries some of that impact. Reffing is dramatically worse on all levels.

This is essentially a contract year for Randle, as there was a good chance the Knicks would have eaten that 4 million buyout based on last season's play. He's running an outlier season in his 7th year, but in a completely outlier situation.

Could the Knicks trade for some package involving "draft picks" this offseason. If you are talking non top 5 lottery picks then Yes. If you are talking about the context under which jskinny35 and I were actually discussing, then No.

Guys moving for multiple picks are far more established than Randle. They offered more marketability and cost certainty given the time and place. Many were future HOFers. If you want to compare Randle to a Westbrook or a Paul or a George, then have him produce at that level for the duration/consistency of production of those players.

No other NBA team will immediately assume what Randle is doing this year is sustainable. Could it be? Yes. There are indicators that bode well for the long term. His mechanics are much better and cleaner. His situational awareness is better. He's making even contested shots, not just clean looks. But is it proven over time? No.

This is a "cost certainty" issue. Randle has not been an All Star every year has he? Has he dramatically taken leaps like this every year? Did he even play 1/4th this well last year wearing a Knicks jersey?

The Knicks shouldn't assume what he's doing this year is sustainable. They have one more year of him locked in and should take that time to keep evaluating him while garnering his full Bird Rights. I'm glad he's playing well and given up the BeyBlade bull****. I'm glad the team is winning and doing better than they have in decades. But you don't start handing out engagement rings after a couple of good blowjobs.

This upcoming draft is seen as a very strong draft. If teams want Randle, they'll more likely wait a year and see if he'll be available via free agency later and keep their high pick. Then they have their high pick plus Randle. They also buy themselves that extra time to see if Randle's leap is sustainable. If you look across league history, this kind of leap usually isn't sustainable.

Your opinion is yours. But what I've just described is how Brock Aller is going to evaluate this situation.

ramtour420
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5/9/2021  9:24 AM    LAST EDITED: 5/9/2021  9:33 AM
TripleThreat wrote:
ramtour420 wrote:

An All-Star that has drastically improved every year, durable as a brick wall, just entering his prime is not worth a draft pick to you? I disagree. Actually forget my opinion. That's a fact. Let me put it this way. An over the hill, injury prone, unwanted by their current team current and even former All-Stars are worth multiple first round picks ( as we have seen in EVERY trade in the last I don't know how many years)

So

No rational NBA team is giving up a top five lottery pick in this upcoming 2021 NBA draft for Julius Randle. - For a legit MVP candidate? That's your opinion

His defense is leaps better this year. He's reading the court better and not trying to force his offense against game flow. He's improved his scoring on all three levels. He carries a heavy offensive responsibility for this team but understands there are times he needs to be a facilitator. There is a nice clear synergy with Derrick Rose so far. Other teams are scheming for him defensively and he's still producing.

But his 3 point shooting is something nutty like hovering around 12 percentage points higher than his career average. He had an outlier season with the Pelicans but the rest was muddled. He has the benefit of long layoff periods because of the pandemic and he may just play better without crowds. Lots of players saw their percentages take an unprecedented kick in the bubble. More space on corner threes. Nothing moving behind the backboard. Same floor every night. Hyper focus on games since there's no other distractions. Now you have limited crowds, which still carries some of that impact. Reffing is dramatically worse on all levels. - just accept that he had worked on his shot and improved it, someone posted a little while ago that he has taken and made more 3 point shots this year than all of his previous seasons. Increased sample size does not impress you,
Again that's your opinion

This is essentially a contract year for Randle, as there was a good chance the Knicks would have eaten that 4 million buyout based on last season's play. He's running an outlier season in his 7th year, but in a completely outlier situation. - it's not his contract year

Could the Knicks trade for some package involving "draft picks" this offseason. If you are talking non top 5 lottery picks then Yes. If you are talking about the context under which jskinny35 and I were actually discussing, then No. - you are repeating yourself here

Guys moving for multiple picks are far more established than Randle. They offered more marketability and cost certainty given the time and place. Many were future HOFers. If you want to compare Randle to a Westbrook or a Paul or a George, then have him produce at that level for the duration/consistency of production of those players. - none of these guys were ever in the MVP conversation, none have posted record breaking stats,Larry Bird says hello. Westbrook's triple double season was the closest. NBA was on notice that his teammates cleared out for him to get those rebounds.

No other NBA team will immediately assume what Randle is doing this year is sustainable. Could it be? Yes. There are indicators that bode well for the long term. His mechanics are much better and cleaner. His situational awareness is better. He's making even contested shots, not just clean looks. But is it proven over time? No.

This is a "cost certainty" issue. Randle has not been an All Star every year has he? Has he dramatically taken leaps like this every year? Did he even play 1/4th this well last year wearing a Knicks jersey?

The Knicks shouldn't assume what he's doing this year is sustainable. They have one more year of him locked in and should take that time to keep evaluating him while garnering his full Bird Rights. I'm glad he's playing well and given up the BeyBlade bull****. I'm glad the team is winning and doing better than they have in decades. But you don't start handing out engagement rings after a couple of good blowjobs. -just tell me does he deserve the max? If the answer is no then we have different opinions , simple as that

This upcoming draft is seen as a very strong draft. If teams want Randle, they'll more likely wait a year and see if he'll be available via free agency later and keep their high pick. Then they have their high pick plus Randle. They also buy themselves that extra time to see if Randle's leap is sustainable. If you look across league history, this kind of leap usually isn't sustainable.- you are contradicting yourself. We should wait for his bird rights to be able to match any contract,but the other teams should wait for it so that any contract offer would be matched by us? Not sure if this makes sense.

Your opinion is yours. But what I've just described is how Brock Aller is going to evaluate this situation. -If you want to justify your opinion because "that's what Brock Aller would have done" it doesn't make it Brock Allers' opinion or anyone else's other than yours. I respectfully disagree.

Everything you have ever wanted is on the other side of fear- George Adair
martin
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5/9/2021  11:46 AM
TripleThreat wrote:No rational NBA team is giving up a top five lottery pick in this upcoming 2021 NBA draft for Julius Randle.

GS would do that in a heartbeat.

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martin
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5/9/2021  11:55 AM
TripleThreat wrote:
ramtour420 wrote:

An All-Star that has drastically improved every year, durable as a brick wall, just entering his prime is not worth a draft pick to you? I disagree. Actually forget my opinion. That's a fact. Let me put it this way. An over the hill, injury prone, unwanted by their current team current and even former All-Stars are worth multiple first round picks ( as we have seen in EVERY trade in the last I don't know how many years)

So

No rational NBA team is giving up a top five lottery pick in this upcoming 2021 NBA draft for Julius Randle.

His defense is leaps better this year. He's reading the court better and not trying to force his offense against game flow. He's improved his scoring on all three levels. He carries a heavy offensive responsibility for this team but understands there are times he needs to be a facilitator. There is a nice clear synergy with Derrick Rose so far. Other teams are scheming for him defensively and he's still producing.

But his 3 point shooting is something nutty like hovering around 12 percentage points higher than his career average. He had an outlier season with the Pelicans but the rest was muddled. He has the benefit of long layoff periods because of the pandemic and he may just play better without crowds. Lots of players saw their percentages take an unprecedented kick in the bubble. More space on corner threes. Nothing moving behind the backboard. Same floor every night. Hyper focus on games since there's no other distractions. Now you have limited crowds, which still carries some of that impact. Reffing is dramatically worse on all levels.

This is essentially a contract year for Randle, as there was a good chance the Knicks would have eaten that 4 million buyout based on last season's play. He's running an outlier season in his 7th year, but in a completely outlier situation.

Could the Knicks trade for some package involving "draft picks" this offseason. If you are talking non top 5 lottery picks then Yes. If you are talking about the context under which jskinny35 and I were actually discussing, then No.

Guys moving for multiple picks are far more established than Randle. They offered more marketability and cost certainty given the time and place. Many were future HOFers. If you want to compare Randle to a Westbrook or a Paul or a George, then have him produce at that level for the duration/consistency of production of those players.

No other NBA team will immediately assume what Randle is doing this year is sustainable. Could it be? Yes. There are indicators that bode well for the long term. His mechanics are much better and cleaner. His situational awareness is better. He's making even contested shots, not just clean looks. But is it proven over time? No.

This is a "cost certainty" issue. Randle has not been an All Star every year has he? Has he dramatically taken leaps like this every year? Did he even play 1/4th this well last year wearing a Knicks jersey?

The Knicks shouldn't assume what he's doing this year is sustainable. They have one more year of him locked in and should take that time to keep evaluating him while garnering his full Bird Rights. I'm glad he's playing well and given up the BeyBlade bull****. I'm glad the team is winning and doing better than they have in decades. But you don't start handing out engagement rings after a couple of good blowjobs.

This upcoming draft is seen as a very strong draft. If teams want Randle, they'll more likely wait a year and see if he'll be available via free agency later and keep their high pick. Then they have their high pick plus Randle. They also buy themselves that extra time to see if Randle's leap is sustainable. If you look across league history, this kind of leap usually isn't sustainable.

Your opinion is yours. But what I've just described is how Brock Aller is going to evaluate this situation.

I wonder if you take a different perspective and noted that LAST year was the outlier season, and a horribly bad one where he took on a completely differently role than he was used to, and looked at Randle's progression if we could come to a different conclusion.

Still would have to solidify it with another season but his play just looks solid.

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5/9/2021  2:41 PM
martin wrote:
TripleThreat wrote:No rational NBA team is giving up a top five lottery pick in this upcoming 2021 NBA draft for Julius Randle.

GS would do that in a heartbeat.


If we did not have randle we’d be a high lottery team. Thus moving Randle for a high pick an interesting proposition. If GS ends up with 2 of top 5 picks the could as Martin suggests. All the while we rebooted the culture.
This is a whole other path to discuss. I’m not sure I want to construct this way out.
Lots of reasons to do it, lots of reasons not to.

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5/9/2021  3:18 PM
TripleThreat wrote:
ramtour420 wrote:

An All-Star that has drastically improved every year, durable as a brick wall, just entering his prime is not worth a draft pick to you? I disagree. Actually forget my opinion. That's a fact. Let me put it this way. An over the hill, injury prone, unwanted by their current team current and even former All-Stars are worth multiple first round picks ( as we have seen in EVERY trade in the last I don't know how many years)

So

No rational NBA team is giving up a top five lottery pick in this upcoming 2021 NBA draft for Julius Randle.

His defense is leaps better this year. He's reading the court better and not trying to force his offense against game flow. He's improved his scoring on all three levels. He carries a heavy offensive responsibility for this team but understands there are times he needs to be a facilitator. There is a nice clear synergy with Derrick Rose so far. Other teams are scheming for him defensively and he's still producing.

But his 3 point shooting is something nutty like hovering around 12 percentage points higher than his career average. He had an outlier season with the Pelicans but the rest was muddled. He has the benefit of long layoff periods because of the pandemic and he may just play better without crowds. Lots of players saw their percentages take an unprecedented kick in the bubble. More space on corner threes. Nothing moving behind the backboard. Same floor every night. Hyper focus on games since there's no other distractions. Now you have limited crowds, which still carries some of that impact. 000000000000 is dramatically worse on all levels.

You know i didn't even factor in the lack of crowds into his shooting improvement.

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TripleThreat
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5/9/2021  10:54 PM
ramtour420 wrote:
No rational NBA team is giving up a top five lottery pick in this upcoming 2021 NBA draft for Julius Randle. - For a legit MVP candidate? That's your opinion

But his 3 point shooting is something nutty like hovering around 12 percentage points higher than his career average. - just accept that he had worked on his shot and improved it, someone posted a little while ago that he has taken and made more 3 point shots this year than all of his previous seasons. Increased sample size does not impress you,
Again that's your opinion

This is essentially a contract year for Randle, as there was a good chance the Knicks would have eaten that 4 million buyout based on last season's play. He's running an outlier season in his 7th year, but in a completely outlier situation. - it's not his contract year


Guys moving for multiple picks are far more established than Randle. They offered more marketability and cost certainty given the time and place. Many were future HOFers. If you want to compare Randle to a Westbrook or a Paul or a George, then have him produce at that level for the duration/consistency of production of those players. - none of these guys were ever in the MVP conversation, none have posted record breaking stats,Larry Bird says hello. Westbrook's triple double season was the closest. NBA was on notice that his teammates cleared out for him to get those rebounds.

But you don't start handing out engagement rings after a couple of good blowjobs. -just tell me does he deserve the max? If the answer is no then we have different opinions , simple as that

This upcoming draft is seen as a very strong draft. If teams want Randle, they'll more likely wait a year and see if he'll be available via free agency later and keep their high pick. Then they have their high pick plus Randle. They also buy themselves that extra time to see if Randle's leap is sustainable. If you look across league history, this kind of leap usually isn't sustainable.- you are contradicting yourself. We should wait for his bird rights to be able to match any contract,but the other teams should wait for it so that any contract offer would be matched by us? Not sure if this makes sense.

Your opinion is yours. But what I've just described is how Brock Aller is going to evaluate this situation. -If you want to justify your opinion because "that's what Brock Aller would have done" it doesn't make it Brock Allers' opinion or anyone else's other than yours. I respectfully disagree.


Cade Cunningham, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green, Evan Mobley, Jon Kuminga

People can argue all day about some other player slipping in or someone rising or falling, but that's about the rough current projection for the next draft. No rational team is going to give up any of those guys, on a cost controlled rookie deal, for maxxing out Julius Randle. It's not going to happen. No GM who wants to keep his job will do it. Top 5 lottery picks rarely get traded. I'm talking against all of NBA draft history. That happens for a reason. Even if a GM wanted to do it, a trade of this kind of impact ( losing someone like a Cunningham or a Suggs) would need an owner stamp of approval. And no rational owner is going to do that either.

I'm glad Randle is playing well for this team, but it's not happening.

Functional analytics departments in the NBA will evaluate a player against several benchmarks. For 3 point shooting, they'll look at every 250 made shots progressively. Aside from that, they look at a player's production by age 25 and his production mid way through his third full season barring injury or some other outlier circumstance. If Randle can shoot 40 percent from behind the arc, after 500 shots, then you have something to base a player's valuation in projection. At 1000, you have a new reality. That's the sample size. Randle hit less than 40 three point shots his first four years in the league ( to be fair, he was hurt his rookie year)

No functional NBA front office will make the evaluation you are making right now. There are positive indicators that Randle will maintain SOME of this uptick. There are also indicators across league history and functional player development that says he won't. What is most likely? Somewhere in the middle. He's less than a 40 percent three point shooter but improved from his previous career trends.

Randle signed a two year deal with a team option for a third year with a 4 million buyout. If Randle played this year like he did last year ( i.e. Spin Move Turnover Machine Ballhog BeyBlade Master) then the Knicks would have cut him loose. Does anyone doubt this? To Randle's credit, he's playing lights out and is having a career year. So Yes, this is a contract year. Anytime your next season is a team option, you are playing for your next contract. I have no idea why you want to contest this other than to split hairs here.

Julius Randle deserves credit for working hard and improving his game. To do it at this stage of his career is a tremendous achievement. However, there's a reason he's still not in the same consideration as a Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook and Paul George at the time and place they were traded. If you want to start adding more names to the list for guys moved for a bevy of assets, then add James Harden and whomever else you want. As Knicks fans, we all will hope Randle stays this productive and one day rivals the career arcs of a Westbrook or a Paul or George or a Harden but that's not something anyone can say right now.

I've said this before, franchises value COST CERTAINTY. This is a basic resource management concept. You are telling me that I'm wrong but you aren't actually listening to what I'm saying. You know what you are likely getting with a Paul George. The good and the bad. But there's a history over time. Randle has had a nice breakout year but there's no current proof it's sustainable. No one can know at this stage. In order for your position to hold, it would need to be sustainable. There would need to be COST CERTAINTY.

The Knicks don't need to answer the max contract question now. They have a team option for Randle and it's in their interest to let him play it out. See if his current production holds. Two full seasons like this is a better indicator. They can afford to wait and they should. If Randle is intent on leaving, they still have some viability to sign and trade him. Or they can resign him. What are you even talking about? Once Randle's Knicks contract expires, he's a street free agent. There is no "match" involved. The Knicks can make a counter offer that equalizes what's on the table for him based on another team's pitch, but they don't have any control over his destiny at that point other than the value of his full Bird Rights. Why would a team with the potential to draft a Suggs or Kuminga trade that player for Randle, when they can just draft that player and see if they can sign Randle later as a street free agent or possibly in a smaller sign and trade. In fact, having a Suggs or a Kuminga would be an enticement for Randle to possibly see the potential in another team and sign there. I'm not contradicting myself - There is a clear pathway for the Knicks here. It doesn't have to be as complicated as some here are making it. They don't need to lock him up right now or this offseason and there's incentive to wait. If he wants to leave without his Bird Rights, he's leaving a lot of money on the table and the other team loses massive cap flexibility for the long term without said Bird Rights.

My opinion lines up with functional resource management. You aren't new here. Many here have seen my post for years and years. I consistently point out the realistic market based decision in place. There is always a fully lined in "best marketplace decision" for every possible scenario. Does it mean that decision is always right? No. But there is a basis for that methodology. Trading Monta Ellis for Andrew Bogut was actually a good market based decision. Getting effective rim protection at that time and place was very difficult. Finding good pivots then was very difficult. Finding a zero defense chucking attack guard wasn't as hard to find. But it could have blown up and Bogut could have ended his career with massive injuries.

The Knicks have a team option on Randle. So use it and see if he can produce this way for two seasons and then make a decision on a possible max contract, with the leverage of his full Bird Rights. Why is this so controversial? Because I refuse to pretend that Randle's first Knicks season didn't happen? Be measured and be patient when you have to option to be measured and be patient? What is wrong with that?

My posting history is not a secret. The Knicks didn't have first rounders in 2014 and 2016

In the 2015 preseason, I wanted the Knicks to trade back from 4th overall, pick up some assets and draft Devin Booker. I wanted Jae Crowder and Robin Lopez as free agents.

In the 2017 preseason, I wanted Jayson Tatum when he was projected at 7th or 8th by early pundits. I knew the Knicks wouldn't get him. I liked Justin Jackson. I wanted nothing to do with DSJr. IIRC, I had some interest in Aron Baynes one of these years.

In the 2018 preseason, I wanted Mikal Bridges ( many here told me he was just "a role player") or Shai Gilgeous Alexander. I also very much wanted De'Anthony Melton and was hoping the Knicks would use their 2nd on him or trade for another 2nd to take him.

In the 2019 preseason, considering the Knicks were locked in to take RJB at third overall, I wanted Matisse Thybulle and Keldon Johnson as well in that draft. I did not expect KJ to fall so far. I didn't know if the Knicks could pick up another pick to get either guy, but hoped Thybulle would drop into the 2nd to make that easier.

This past draft, I wanted Saddiq Bey and possibly Tyler Bey later. But I recognized the "safe pick" for value for slot and based on projections, odds are the pick was likely to be Devin Vassell. How many here would trade Obi Toppin straight up for Saddiq Bey right now? Most of you would drive Toppin to the airport at breakneck speeds and hand him some Hot Pockets and his luggage and wish him well as fast as you could. How many would trade Toppin straight up right now for Vassell? I wanted the team to look at free agents Noel, Harry Giles, Andre Roberson, look at offer sheets for Melton and Jon Konchar and Chris Chiozza and think about trades for Keldon Johnson and Jordan Poole. Not any secrets in my posting history.

I wanted nothing to do with Enes Kanter, Greg Monroe, Mudiay, Trey Burke, Frank Kaminsky and on and on and on with guys that some here demanded get long term contracts. How's that looking now?

People keep arguing with me but I know how to build a team. Would it win a championship? Probably not. But try scoring against that squad. But would any here complain with Booker, Mikal Bridges, Melton, Thybulle, Saddiq Bey and Noel just plain ****ing people up every single night?

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5/10/2021  12:57 AM
TripleThreat wrote:
ramtour420 wrote:
No rational NBA team is giving up a top five lottery pick in this upcoming 2021 NBA draft for Julius Randle. - For a legit MVP candidate? That's your opinion

But his 3 point shooting is something nutty like hovering around 12 percentage points higher than his career average. - just accept that he had worked on his shot and improved it, someone posted a little while ago that he has taken and made more 3 point shots this year than all of his previous seasons. Increased sample size does not impress you,
Again that's your opinion

This is essentially a contract year for Randle, as there was a good chance the Knicks would have eaten that 4 million buyout based on last season's play. He's running an outlier season in his 7th year, but in a completely outlier situation. - it's not his contract year


Guys moving for multiple picks are far more established than Randle. They offered more marketability and cost certainty given the time and place. Many were future HOFers. If you want to compare Randle to a Westbrook or a Paul or a George, then have him produce at that level for the duration/consistency of production of those players. - none of these guys were ever in the MVP conversation, none have posted record breaking stats,Larry Bird says hello. Westbrook's triple double season was the closest. NBA was on notice that his teammates cleared out for him to get those rebounds.

But you don't start handing out engagement rings after a couple of good blowjobs. -just tell me does he deserve the max? If the answer is no then we have different opinions , simple as that

This upcoming draft is seen as a very strong draft. If teams want Randle, they'll more likely wait a year and see if he'll be available via free agency later and keep their high pick. Then they have their high pick plus Randle. They also buy themselves that extra time to see if Randle's leap is sustainable. If you look across league history, this kind of leap usually isn't sustainable.- you are contradicting yourself. We should wait for his bird rights to be able to match any contract,but the other teams should wait for it so that any contract offer would be matched by us? Not sure if this makes sense.

Your opinion is yours. But what I've just described is how Brock Aller is going to evaluate this situation. -If you want to justify your opinion because "that's what Brock Aller would have done" it doesn't make it Brock Allers' opinion or anyone else's other than yours. I respectfully disagree.


Cade Cunningham, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green, Evan Mobley, Jon Kuminga

People can argue all day about some other player slipping in or someone rising or falling, but that's about the rough current projection for the next draft. No rational team is going to give up any of those guys, on a cost controlled rookie deal, for maxxing out Julius Randle. It's not going to happen. No GM who wants to keep his job will do it. Top 5 lottery picks rarely get traded. I'm talking against all of NBA draft history. That happens for a reason. Even if a GM wanted to do it, a trade of this kind of impact ( losing someone like a Cunningham or a Suggs) would need an owner stamp of approval. And no rational owner is going to do that either.

I'm glad Randle is playing well for this team, but it's not happening.

Functional analytics departments in the NBA will evaluate a player against several benchmarks. For 3 point shooting, they'll look at every 250 made shots progressively. Aside from that, they look at a player's production by age 25 and his production mid way through his third full season barring injury or some other outlier circumstance. If Randle can shoot 40 percent from behind the arc, after 500 shots, then you have something to base a player's valuation in projection. At 1000, you have a new reality. That's the sample size. Randle hit less than 40 three point shots his first four years in the league ( to be fair, he was hurt his rookie year)

No functional NBA front office will make the evaluation you are making right now. There are positive indicators that Randle will maintain SOME of this uptick. There are also indicators across league history and functional player development that says he won't. What is most likely? Somewhere in the middle. He's less than a 40 percent three point shooter but improved from his previous career trends.

Randle signed a two year deal with a team option for a third year with a 4 million buyout. If Randle played this year like he did last year ( i.e. Spin Move Turnover Machine Ballhog BeyBlade Master) then the Knicks would have cut him loose. Does anyone doubt this? To Randle's credit, he's playing lights out and is having a career year. So Yes, this is a contract year. Anytime your next season is a team option, you are playing for your next contract. I have no idea why you want to contest this other than to split hairs here.

Julius Randle deserves credit for working hard and improving his game. To do it at this stage of his career is a tremendous achievement. However, there's a reason he's still not in the same consideration as a Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook and Paul George at the time and place they were traded. If you want to start adding more names to the list for guys moved for a bevy of assets, then add James Harden and whomever else you want. As Knicks fans, we all will hope Randle stays this productive and one day rivals the career arcs of a Westbrook or a Paul or George or a Harden but that's not something anyone can say right now.

I've said this before, franchises value COST CERTAINTY. This is a basic resource management concept. You are telling me that I'm wrong but you aren't actually listening to what I'm saying. You know what you are likely getting with a Paul George. The good and the bad. But there's a history over time. Randle has had a nice breakout year but there's no current proof it's sustainable. No one can know at this stage. In order for your position to hold, it would need to be sustainable. There would need to be COST CERTAINTY.

The Knicks don't need to answer the max contract question now. They have a team option for Randle and it's in their interest to let him play it out. See if his current production holds. Two full seasons like this is a better indicator. They can afford to wait and they should. If Randle is intent on leaving, they still have some viability to sign and trade him. Or they can resign him. What are you even talking about? Once Randle's Knicks contract expires, he's a street free agent. There is no "match" involved. The Knicks can make a counter offer that equalizes what's on the table for him based on another team's pitch, but they don't have any control over his destiny at that point other than the value of his full Bird Rights. Why would a team with the potential to draft a Suggs or Kuminga trade that player for Randle, when they can just draft that player and see if they can sign Randle later as a street free agent or possibly in a smaller sign and trade. In fact, having a Suggs or a Kuminga would be an enticement for Randle to possibly see the potential in another team and sign there. I'm not contradicting myself - There is a clear pathway for the Knicks here. It doesn't have to be as complicated as some here are making it. They don't need to lock him up right now or this offseason and there's incentive to wait. If he wants to leave without his Bird Rights, he's leaving a lot of money on the table and the other team loses massive cap flexibility for the long term without said Bird Rights.

My opinion lines up with functional resource management. You aren't new here. Many here have seen my post for years and years. I consistently point out the realistic market based decision in place. There is always a fully lined in "best marketplace decision" for every possible scenario. Does it mean that decision is always right? No. But there is a basis for that methodology. Trading Monta Ellis for Andrew Bogut was actually a good market based decision. Getting effective rim protection at that time and place was very difficult. Finding good pivots then was very difficult. Finding a zero defense chucking attack guard wasn't as hard to find. But it could have blown up and Bogut could have ended his career with massive injuries.

The Knicks have a team option on Randle. So use it and see if he can produce this way for two seasons and then make a decision on a possible max contract, with the leverage of his full Bird Rights. Why is this so controversial? Because I refuse to pretend that Randle's first Knicks season didn't happen? Be measured and be patient when you have to option to be measured and be patient? What is wrong with that?

My posting history is not a secret. The Knicks didn't have first rounders in 2014 and 2016

In the 2015 preseason, I wanted the Knicks to trade back from 4th overall, pick up some assets and draft Devin Booker. I wanted Jae Crowder and Robin Lopez as free agents.

In the 2017 preseason, I wanted Jayson Tatum when he was projected at 7th or 8th by early pundits. I knew the Knicks wouldn't get him. I liked Justin Jackson. I wanted nothing to do with DSJr. IIRC, I had some interest in Aron Baynes one of these years.

In the 2018 preseason, I wanted Mikal Bridges ( many here told me he was just "a role player") or Shai Gilgeous Alexander. I also very much wanted De'Anthony Melton and was hoping the Knicks would use their 2nd on him or trade for another 2nd to take him.

In the 2019 preseason, considering the Knicks were locked in to take RJB at third overall, I wanted Matisse Thybulle and Keldon Johnson as well in that draft. I did not expect KJ to fall so far. I didn't know if the Knicks could pick up another pick to get either guy, but hoped Thybulle would drop into the 2nd to make that easier.

This past draft, I wanted Saddiq Bey and possibly Tyler Bey later. But I recognized the "safe pick" for value for slot and based on projections, odds are the pick was likely to be Devin Vassell. How many here would trade Obi Toppin straight up for Saddiq Bey right now? Most of you would drive Toppin to the airport at breakneck speeds and hand him some Hot Pockets and his luggage and wish him well as fast as you could. How many would trade Toppin straight up right now for Vassell? I wanted the team to look at free agents Noel, Harry Giles, Andre Roberson, look at offer sheets for Melton and Jon Konchar and Chris Chiozza and think about trades for Keldon Johnson and Jordan Poole. Not any secrets in my posting history.

I wanted nothing to do with Enes Kanter, Greg Monroe, Mudiay, Trey Burke, Frank Kaminsky and on and on and on with guys that some here demanded get long term contracts. How's that looking now?

People keep arguing with me but I know how to build a team. Would it win a championship? Probably not. But try scoring against that squad. But would any here complain with Booker, Mikal Bridges, Melton, Thybulle, Saddiq Bey and Noel just plain ****ing people up every single night?

On an unrelated note: have you had a chance to look at prospects for this upcoming draft? I’m curious to know if they’re any you are very high/low on?

The Future is Bright!
Philc1
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5/10/2021  5:08 AM
martin wrote:
TripleThreat wrote:No rational NBA team is giving up a top five lottery pick in this upcoming 2021 NBA draft for Julius Randle.

GS would do that in a heartbeat.

I think a few teams would. Randle’s value is at an all time high

Philc1
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5/10/2021  5:09 AM
Nalod wrote:
martin wrote:
TripleThreat wrote:No rational NBA team is giving up a top five lottery pick in this upcoming 2021 NBA draft for Julius Randle.

GS would do that in a heartbeat.


If we did not have randle we’d be a high lottery team. Thus moving Randle for a high pick an interesting proposition. If GS ends up with 2 of top 5 picks the could as Martin suggests. All the while we rebooted the culture.
This is a whole other path to discuss. I’m not sure I want to construct this way out.
Lots of reasons to do it, lots of reasons not to.

If we do trade Randle for a top 5 pick or a guy like Fox or Book we have to get him out of the eastern conference. I do not want to be facing him 4x a year

ramtour420
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5/10/2021  5:57 AM    LAST EDITED: 5/10/2021  5:59 AM
Philc1 wrote:
Nalod wrote:
martin wrote:
TripleThreat wrote:No rational NBA team is giving up a top five lottery pick in this upcoming 2021 NBA draft for Julius Randle.

GS would do that in a heartbeat.


If we did not have randle we’d be a high lottery team. Thus moving Randle for a high pick an interesting proposition. If GS ends up with 2 of top 5 picks the could as Martin suggests. All the while we rebooted the culture.
This is a whole other path to discuss. I’m not sure I want to construct this way out.
Lots of reasons to do it, lots of reasons not to.

If we do trade Randle for a top 5 pick or a guy like Fox or Book we have to get him out of the eastern conference. I do not want to be facing him 4x a year


Last night vs the Clippers Randle had a monstereous game while shooting poorly. Getting doubled all night he rebounded like a man possessed, passed the ball to create scoring opportunities for others and was clutch down the line.
Can Fox or Booker do that? Will the team to a win when their shot is not falling? It's an honest question, especially about Booker. I don't think Fox can. As for all the rookies let's see how their games translate and their durability before we give out Hall of Fame ballots.
Everything you have ever wanted is on the other side of fear- George Adair
Philc1
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5/10/2021  6:06 AM
ramtour420 wrote:
Philc1 wrote:
Nalod wrote:
martin wrote:
TripleThreat wrote:No rational NBA team is giving up a top five lottery pick in this upcoming 2021 NBA draft for Julius Randle.

GS would do that in a heartbeat.


If we did not have randle we’d be a high lottery team. Thus moving Randle for a high pick an interesting proposition. If GS ends up with 2 of top 5 picks the could as Martin suggests. All the while we rebooted the culture.
This is a whole other path to discuss. I’m not sure I want to construct this way out.
Lots of reasons to do it, lots of reasons not to.

If we do trade Randle for a top 5 pick or a guy like Fox or Book we have to get him out of the eastern conference. I do not want to be facing him 4x a year


Last night vs the Clippers Randle had a monstereous game while shooting poorly. Getting doubled all night he rebounded like a man possessed, passed the ball to create scoring opportunities for others and was clutch down the line.
Can Fox or Booker do that? Will the team to a win when their shot is not falling? It's an honest question, especially about Booker. I don't think Fox can. As for all the rookies let's see how their games translate and their durability before we give out Hall of Fame ballots.

I understand what you’re saying. Randle has been phenomenal this year. But do you want to be locked into him on a supermax long term? I’m 50/50 on that

ramtour420
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5/10/2021  7:39 AM
Philc1 wrote:
ramtour420 wrote:
Philc1 wrote:
Nalod wrote:
martin wrote:
TripleThreat wrote:No rational NBA team is giving up a top five lottery pick in this upcoming 2021 NBA draft for Julius Randle.

GS would do that in a heartbeat.


If we did not have randle we’d be a high lottery team. Thus moving Randle for a high pick an interesting proposition. If GS ends up with 2 of top 5 picks the could as Martin suggests. All the while we rebooted the culture.
This is a whole other path to discuss. I’m not sure I want to construct this way out.
Lots of reasons to do it, lots of reasons not to.

If we do trade Randle for a top 5 pick or a guy like Fox or Book we have to get him out of the eastern conference. I do not want to be facing him 4x a year


Last night vs the Clippers Randle had a monstereous game while shooting poorly. Getting doubled all night he rebounded like a man possessed, passed the ball to create scoring opportunities for others and was clutch down the line.
Can Fox or Booker do that? Will the team to a win when their shot is not falling? It's an honest question, especially about Booker. I don't think Fox can. As for all the rookies let's see how their games translate and their durability before we give out Hall of Fame ballots.

I understand what you’re saying. Randle has been phenomenal this year. But do you want to be locked into him on a supermax long term? I’m 50/50 on that

I absolutely want to lock him at supermax. I see nearly no flaws in his game/ personality/ professionalism. He could turn the ball over a bit less, he could improve his free throws a bit. That's pretty much it unless I am missing something.He is a leader by example. Rarely loses his cool. He is durable. He is starting to be clutch down the strech of games. His work ethic is rubbing off on our youth. He has improved his game in the off-season with tangible results. He is just coming into his prime years. I am willing to bet that we have not seen his best yet. Thats everything that I want from my superstar.

Everything you have ever wanted is on the other side of fear- George Adair
HofstraBBall
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5/10/2021  9:19 AM    LAST EDITED: 5/10/2021  2:39 PM
TripleThreat wrote:
ramtour420 wrote:

An All-Star that has drastically improved every year, durable as a brick wall, just entering his prime is not worth a draft pick to you? I disagree. Actually forget my opinion. That's a fact. Let me put it this way. An over the hill, injury prone, unwanted by their current team current and even former All-Stars are worth multiple first round picks ( as we have seen in EVERY trade in the last I don't know how many years)

So

No rational NBA team is giving up a top five lottery pick in this upcoming 2021 NBA draft for Julius Randle.

His defense is leaps better this year. He's reading the court better and not trying to force his offense against game flow. He's improved his scoring on all three levels. He carries a heavy offensive responsibility for this team but understands there are times he needs to be a facilitator. There is a nice clear synergy with Derrick Rose so far. Other teams are scheming for him defensively and he's still producing.

But his 3 point shooting is something nutty like hovering around 12 percentage points higher than his career average. He had an outlier season with the Pelicans but the rest was muddled. He has the benefit of long layoff periods because of the pandemic and he may just play better without crowds. Lots of players saw their percentages take an unprecedented kick in the bubble. More space on corner threes. Nothing moving behind the backboard. Same floor every night. Hyper focus on games since there's no other distractions. Now you have limited crowds, which still carries some of that impact. Reffing is dramatically worse on all levels.

This is essentially a contract year for Randle, as there was a good chance the Knicks would have eaten that 4 million buyout based on last season's play. He's running an outlier season in his 7th year, but in a completely outlier situation.

Could the Knicks trade for some package involving "draft picks" this offseason. If you are talking non top 5 lottery picks then Yes. If you are talking about the context under which jskinny35 and I were actually discussing, then No.

Guys moving for multiple picks are far more established than Randle. They offered more marketability and cost certainty given the time and place. Many were future HOFers. If you want to compare Randle to a Westbrook or a Paul or a George, then have him produce at that level for the duration/consistency of production of those players.

No other NBA team will immediately assume what Randle is doing this year is sustainable. Could it be? Yes. There are indicators that bode well for the long term. His mechanics are much better and cleaner. His situational awareness is better. He's making even contested shots, not just clean looks. But is it proven over time? No.

This is a "cost certainty" issue. Randle has not been an All Star every year has he? Has he dramatically taken leaps like this every year? Did he even play 1/4th this well last year wearing a Knicks jersey?

The Knicks shouldn't assume what he's doing this year is sustainable. They have one more year of him locked in and should take that time to keep evaluating him while garnering his full Bird Rights. I'm glad he's playing well and given up the BeyBlade bull****. I'm glad the team is winning and doing better than they have in decades. But you don't start handing out engagement rings after a couple of good blowjobs.

This upcoming draft is seen as a very strong draft. If teams want Randle, they'll more likely wait a year and see if he'll be available via free agency later and keep their high pick. Then they have their high pick plus Randle. They also buy themselves that extra time to see if Randle's leap is sustainable. If you look across league history, this kind of leap usually isn't sustainable.

Your opinion is yours. But what I've just described is how Brock Aller is going to evaluate this situation.

Bro, this is my problem with many of your posts. You make valid points. Which you explain quite well. BUT you then go on to portray your OPINION as fact. Which you do by insinuating you have a major connection to an NBA front office. Your new one is now that you know what Brock Aller is thinking? The fact is that even the people working directly with the top decision-makers of a franchise do not know what they are thinking. Especially when we are putting into context with such broad incomplete scenarios. But that is just my opinion.

As for your point. Some of your posts on this thread seem to suggest that Randle is not worth a top 5 pick. If so, in my OPINION, I totally disagree. He is absolutely worth a top 5 pick. Especially if you look at the projected 5 teams. DET and ORL will definitely keep their picks in order to choose Suggs or Cade. Not only are those two players potential franchise players but both those teams are rebuilding. GS is an interesting case. They were thought to be contemplating giving up their pick last year. They have Thompson coming back. They have Dreymond green. Tough to see them trade for a PF in Randle. Unless they decide to move on from Green. Which would not be a bad move. They also need a SF. Think they will probably pick Kuminga but not a crazy thought that they would trade for Randle. The team that I feel would absolutely trade for Randle is OKC. Seeing as they have a ****load of draft picks including two of that may be in the top 5? Do not know Presti personally but he has not shown the stomach for being a rebuilding team for long stretches. One last thing to mention. I do not know Aller personally, but I do not think he would trade Randle for a 3 to 5 pick this year. Considering no draft pick is a sure thing and Randle is playing like an MVP!

'Knicks focus should be on players that have grown up playing soccer or cricket' - Triplethreat 8/28/2020
knicks1248
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5/10/2021  9:59 AM
The trade randle discussion is really ridiculous, it was ridiculous last season, and straight up retarded this season.
ES
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5/10/2021  12:23 PM
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5/10/2021  12:35 PM
ramtour420 wrote:
Philc1 wrote:
ramtour420 wrote:
Philc1 wrote:
Nalod wrote:
martin wrote:
TripleThreat wrote:No rational NBA team is giving up a top five lottery pick in this upcoming 2021 NBA draft for Julius Randle.

GS would do that in a heartbeat.


If we did not have randle we’d be a high lottery team. Thus moving Randle for a high pick an interesting proposition. If GS ends up with 2 of top 5 picks the could as Martin suggests. All the while we rebooted the culture.
This is a whole other path to discuss. I’m not sure I want to construct this way out.
Lots of reasons to do it, lots of reasons not to.

If we do trade Randle for a top 5 pick or a guy like Fox or Book we have to get him out of the eastern conference. I do not want to be facing him 4x a year


Last night vs the Clippers Randle had a monstereous game while shooting poorly. Getting doubled all night he rebounded like a man possessed, passed the ball to create scoring opportunities for others and was clutch down the line.
Can Fox or Booker do that? Will the team to a win when their shot is not falling? It's an honest question, especially about Booker. I don't think Fox can. As for all the rookies let's see how their games translate and their durability before we give out Hall of Fame ballots.

I understand what you’re saying. Randle has been phenomenal this year. But do you want to be locked into him on a supermax long term? I’m 50/50 on that

I absolutely want to lock him at supermax. I see nearly no flaws in his game/ personality/ professionalism. He could turn the ball over a bit less, he could improve his free throws a bit. That's pretty much it unless I am missing something.He is a leader by example. Rarely loses his cool. He is durable. He is starting to be clutch down the strech of games. His work ethic is rubbing off on our youth. He has improved his game in the off-season with tangible results. He is just coming into his prime years. I am willing to bet that we have not seen his best yet. Thats everything that I want from my superstar.

And this is where I (and some others) disagree as it doesn't matter if he's our best player or if there is nobody else on the horizon that is currently available and worth the super max... you don't pay a very good/all star player a super max. I get that many teams overpay players but unless the player is Lebron, Giannis, Steph, KD (pre-injury) etc... there's not super max worthy. Embiid is a terrific but he's too injury-prone to risk locking up that much money. Randle is great in that he's been productive, healthy and exceeded what the majority of us thought he could be... but while he's the star of our show - you can't throw all that money and build around him. If he's your 2nd (or 3rd) best player - it's a solid formula for success at the top tier. If we keep thinking he's going to match or outplay the Giannis, Lebron, etc - we're somewhat deluded. I would be on board with him getting a raise/bigger contract - but a supermax would undue all the flexibility and hard work the FO has been accomplished the past few years. I think we should wait to do anything with his contract until next season as that would leave us room to find a solid PG first. Say a player like Lillard does become available - would much rather have money and room for him to join than giving Randle a supermax and being significantly limited to filling out the remainder of the roster with minimum contracts and older vets.

J. Randle

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