ramtour420 wrote:
No rational NBA team is giving up a top five lottery pick in this upcoming 2021 NBA draft for Julius Randle. - For a legit MVP candidate? That's your opinion
But his 3 point shooting is something nutty like hovering around 12 percentage points higher than his career average. - just accept that he had worked on his shot and improved it, someone posted a little while ago that he has taken and made more 3 point shots this year than all of his previous seasons. Increased sample size does not impress you,
Again that's your opinion
This is essentially a contract year for Randle, as there was a good chance the Knicks would have eaten that 4 million buyout based on last season's play. He's running an outlier season in his 7th year, but in a completely outlier situation. - it's not his contract year
Guys moving for multiple picks are far more established than Randle. They offered more marketability and cost certainty given the time and place. Many were future HOFers. If you want to compare Randle to a Westbrook or a Paul or a George, then have him produce at that level for the duration/consistency of production of those players. - none of these guys were ever in the MVP conversation, none have posted record breaking stats,Larry Bird says hello. Westbrook's triple double season was the closest. NBA was on notice that his teammates cleared out for him to get those rebounds.
But you don't start handing out engagement rings after a couple of good blowjobs. -just tell me does he deserve the max? If the answer is no then we have different opinions , simple as that
This upcoming draft is seen as a very strong draft. If teams want Randle, they'll more likely wait a year and see if he'll be available via free agency later and keep their high pick. Then they have their high pick plus Randle. They also buy themselves that extra time to see if Randle's leap is sustainable. If you look across league history, this kind of leap usually isn't sustainable.- you are contradicting yourself. We should wait for his bird rights to be able to match any contract,but the other teams should wait for it so that any contract offer would be matched by us? Not sure if this makes sense.
Your opinion is yours. But what I've just described is how Brock Aller is going to evaluate this situation. -If you want to justify your opinion because "that's what Brock Aller would have done" it doesn't make it Brock Allers' opinion or anyone else's other than yours. I respectfully disagree.
Cade Cunningham, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green, Evan Mobley, Jon Kuminga
People can argue all day about some other player slipping in or someone rising or falling, but that's about the rough current projection for the next draft. No rational team is going to give up any of those guys, on a cost controlled rookie deal, for maxxing out Julius Randle. It's not going to happen. No GM who wants to keep his job will do it. Top 5 lottery picks rarely get traded. I'm talking against all of NBA draft history. That happens for a reason. Even if a GM wanted to do it, a trade of this kind of impact ( losing someone like a Cunningham or a Suggs) would need an owner stamp of approval. And no rational owner is going to do that either.
I'm glad Randle is playing well for this team, but it's not happening.
Functional analytics departments in the NBA will evaluate a player against several benchmarks. For 3 point shooting, they'll look at every 250 made shots progressively. Aside from that, they look at a player's production by age 25 and his production mid way through his third full season barring injury or some other outlier circumstance. If Randle can shoot 40 percent from behind the arc, after 500 shots, then you have something to base a player's valuation in projection. At 1000, you have a new reality. That's the sample size. Randle hit less than 40 three point shots his first four years in the league ( to be fair, he was hurt his rookie year)
No functional NBA front office will make the evaluation you are making right now. There are positive indicators that Randle will maintain SOME of this uptick. There are also indicators across league history and functional player development that says he won't. What is most likely? Somewhere in the middle. He's less than a 40 percent three point shooter but improved from his previous career trends.
Randle signed a two year deal with a team option for a third year with a 4 million buyout. If Randle played this year like he did last year ( i.e. Spin Move Turnover Machine Ballhog BeyBlade Master) then the Knicks would have cut him loose. Does anyone doubt this? To Randle's credit, he's playing lights out and is having a career year. So Yes, this is a contract year. Anytime your next season is a team option, you are playing for your next contract. I have no idea why you want to contest this other than to split hairs here.
Julius Randle deserves credit for working hard and improving his game. To do it at this stage of his career is a tremendous achievement. However, there's a reason he's still not in the same consideration as a Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook and Paul George at the time and place they were traded. If you want to start adding more names to the list for guys moved for a bevy of assets, then add James Harden and whomever else you want. As Knicks fans, we all will hope Randle stays this productive and one day rivals the career arcs of a Westbrook or a Paul or George or a Harden but that's not something anyone can say right now.
I've said this before, franchises value COST CERTAINTY. This is a basic resource management concept. You are telling me that I'm wrong but you aren't actually listening to what I'm saying. You know what you are likely getting with a Paul George. The good and the bad. But there's a history over time. Randle has had a nice breakout year but there's no current proof it's sustainable. No one can know at this stage. In order for your position to hold, it would need to be sustainable. There would need to be COST CERTAINTY.
The Knicks don't need to answer the max contract question now. They have a team option for Randle and it's in their interest to let him play it out. See if his current production holds. Two full seasons like this is a better indicator. They can afford to wait and they should. If Randle is intent on leaving, they still have some viability to sign and trade him. Or they can resign him. What are you even talking about? Once Randle's Knicks contract expires, he's a street free agent. There is no "match" involved. The Knicks can make a counter offer that equalizes what's on the table for him based on another team's pitch, but they don't have any control over his destiny at that point other than the value of his full Bird Rights. Why would a team with the potential to draft a Suggs or Kuminga trade that player for Randle, when they can just draft that player and see if they can sign Randle later as a street free agent or possibly in a smaller sign and trade. In fact, having a Suggs or a Kuminga would be an enticement for Randle to possibly see the potential in another team and sign there. I'm not contradicting myself - There is a clear pathway for the Knicks here. It doesn't have to be as complicated as some here are making it. They don't need to lock him up right now or this offseason and there's incentive to wait. If he wants to leave without his Bird Rights, he's leaving a lot of money on the table and the other team loses massive cap flexibility for the long term without said Bird Rights.
My opinion lines up with functional resource management. You aren't new here. Many here have seen my post for years and years. I consistently point out the realistic market based decision in place. There is always a fully lined in "best marketplace decision" for every possible scenario. Does it mean that decision is always right? No. But there is a basis for that methodology. Trading Monta Ellis for Andrew Bogut was actually a good market based decision. Getting effective rim protection at that time and place was very difficult. Finding good pivots then was very difficult. Finding a zero defense chucking attack guard wasn't as hard to find. But it could have blown up and Bogut could have ended his career with massive injuries.
The Knicks have a team option on Randle. So use it and see if he can produce this way for two seasons and then make a decision on a possible max contract, with the leverage of his full Bird Rights. Why is this so controversial? Because I refuse to pretend that Randle's first Knicks season didn't happen? Be measured and be patient when you have to option to be measured and be patient? What is wrong with that?
My posting history is not a secret. The Knicks didn't have first rounders in 2014 and 2016
In the 2015 preseason, I wanted the Knicks to trade back from 4th overall, pick up some assets and draft Devin Booker. I wanted Jae Crowder and Robin Lopez as free agents.
In the 2017 preseason, I wanted Jayson Tatum when he was projected at 7th or 8th by early pundits. I knew the Knicks wouldn't get him. I liked Justin Jackson. I wanted nothing to do with DSJr. IIRC, I had some interest in Aron Baynes one of these years.
In the 2018 preseason, I wanted Mikal Bridges ( many here told me he was just "a role player") or Shai Gilgeous Alexander. I also very much wanted De'Anthony Melton and was hoping the Knicks would use their 2nd on him or trade for another 2nd to take him.
In the 2019 preseason, considering the Knicks were locked in to take RJB at third overall, I wanted Matisse Thybulle and Keldon Johnson as well in that draft. I did not expect KJ to fall so far. I didn't know if the Knicks could pick up another pick to get either guy, but hoped Thybulle would drop into the 2nd to make that easier.
This past draft, I wanted Saddiq Bey and possibly Tyler Bey later. But I recognized the "safe pick" for value for slot and based on projections, odds are the pick was likely to be Devin Vassell. How many here would trade Obi Toppin straight up for Saddiq Bey right now? Most of you would drive Toppin to the airport at breakneck speeds and hand him some Hot Pockets and his luggage and wish him well as fast as you could. How many would trade Toppin straight up right now for Vassell? I wanted the team to look at free agents Noel, Harry Giles, Andre Roberson, look at offer sheets for Melton and Jon Konchar and Chris Chiozza and think about trades for Keldon Johnson and Jordan Poole. Not any secrets in my posting history.
I wanted nothing to do with Enes Kanter, Greg Monroe, Mudiay, Trey Burke, Frank Kaminsky and on and on and on with guys that some here demanded get long term contracts. How's that looking now?
People keep arguing with me but I know how to build a team. Would it win a championship? Probably not. But try scoring against that squad. But would any here complain with Booker, Mikal Bridges, Melton, Thybulle, Saddiq Bey and Noel just plain ****ing people up every single night?