fwk00 wrote:TripleThreat wrote:Jimbo5 wrote:Randle to the Jazz is not necessary about roster fit for the Jazz but maybe more of a cap space move for them, giving them more room to make more moves to improve for next year. Well, it will be interesting to see what develops through the offseason. It seems the front office would like to make a splash and change the roster significantly.
Mirror Test this. If the Knicks had Conley, would they trade him for Randle?
Randle is a no defense ball stopper who doesn't protect the rim. He clogs the Jazz's floor spacing. And while Conley is old and overpaid, he still fills a role for them. He also has a 4 million dollar buyout in that team option year.
Adding Randle is a net negative with a walk year tax that creates a new hole on your roster.
Your premise is what? All things being equal?
That isn't the case. Utah needs to be fiscally responsible, moreso than the Knicks. You already know this. We aren't talking about a basketball trade. We're talking pure economics.
IFF the Knicks had the same budget considerations you do a trade. If these teams are bargaining, Utah should look to trade into some useful players who would fill needs that are more expensive on the open market. Conley and a swap of late picks works for both teams.
Cap space teams
Six NBA teams project to have cap space at $109 million. They just project to have a little bit less than originally thought.
Atlanta Hawks: $43.2 million
New York Knicks: $41.5 million
Detroit Pistons: $28.2 million
Charlotte Hornets: $22.5 million
Miami Heat: $20.9 million
Phoenix Suns: $18.9 million
The first four teams will assuredly seek to be players this offseason. The Hawks are hoping to make the jump to being a playoff team. The Knicks are perpetually rebuilding, this time with a new front office in place. The Pistons have kicked off a rebuild, but still have some big enough salaries that they could look for a quick turnaround. And the Hornets feel they aren’t far from being a playoff team.
The Heat are already making waves that they could choose to roll over their space to the summer of 2021. This could include re-signing their own free agents to big one-year deals. The Suns could choose to do the same. The reason why is twofold. First, the free-agent class projects to be far better in 2021 than this summer. The second reason is that we’ll hopefully be in a more normal cap environment next summer. That means space could go much further in 2021 vs. 2020.
Luxury tax teams
While cap space teams won’t change much in this scenario, tax teams could change quite a bit. A projected cap of $115 million comes with a luxury tax at about $139 million. In that scenario, five to nine teams project to be over the luxury tax. A cap of $109 million carries a tax line of $132.6 million. At those figures, eight to 15 teams project to be over the tax.
The eight teams that are almost guaranteed to be in or around the tax are:
Boston Celtics
Brooklyn Nets
Golden State Warriors
Houston Rockets
Los Angeles Clippers
Los Angeles Lakers
Milwaukee Bucks
Philadelphia 76ers
These teams are already in the tax at $115 million or are very close to it.
The seven teams that could join them, pending roster decisions, are:
Denver Nuggets
Indiana Pacers
Oklahoma City Thunder
Orlando Magic
San Antonio Spurs
Toronto Raptors
Utah Jazz
These teams are probably clear of the tax in the original projection. If the tax line drops, these teams could face difficult decisions on retaining their own free agents and/or using exceptions.
Exception-limited teams
These nine teams are limited to using the non-taxpayer mid-level exception and/or bi-annual exception, whether the cap falls or not.
Chicago Bulls
Cleveland Cavaliers
Dallas Mavericks
Memphis Grizzlies
Minnesota Timberwolves
New Orleans Pelicans
Portland Trail Blazers
Sacramento Kings
Washington Wizards
The challenge these teams face is that they could be looking at approximately $500,000 less to use with the non-taxpayer MLE and almost $200,000 less with the bi-annual. While it’s an even playing field, having that much less to offer could make it hard to land free agents. It may be more enticing for a player to re-sign with his current team than leave for a lower than expected starting salary elsewhere.
1) The Knicks aren't the only team with open cap space
2) The premise relies on this being the best deal for the Jazz, there are other teams in the league. It also relies on this being the best deal for the Knicks to use their open cap space. There are other teams in the league.
3) The premise relies on the league not changing the tax line or the tax structure. If they don't individual teams will likely collapse financially across the intermediate term.
4) The premise relies on the Jazz resigning Clarkson as the only option and Conley as the only cap maneuver possible. They do have his Bird Rights. Is he the player that sparked the team in a contract year? Or is he more the player he's shown in the three years before?