Earlier this week, behavioral economist Richard Thaler was awarded the Nobel prize in economics for his work in studying the predictability of irrational behavior.That work includes a paper on the NFL draft, which influenced many front offices to change their approach to the annual event and also played a large role in the 2011 CBA that reduced rookie salaries significantly.
Thaler’s thesis was that NFL teams were too confident in their ability to predict which players would be better than others. Because teams were handing top picks such large deals, those picks at the top of the first round actually provided less value than picks at the bottom of it.
Thaler maintained that teams over-valued the “right to pick,” which caused teams to give up too much value in order to move up in the draft to take their guy. Because the ability to forecast whether, say, the top cornerback in the class was going to perform better than the second-best corner in the class is so weak, trading up for a specific player was irrational behavior, according to Thaler.
“Teams overestimate their ability to discriminate between the best linebacker in the draft and the next best one, and to overestimate the chance that if they wait, the player they are hoping for will be chosen by another team.”
Thaler also found that teams were willing to give up a more valuable pick in the future for a less valuable in the current draft. So, in theory, teams could add value in subsequent drafts by simply loaning picks out in the current draft.
Football teams and fans are smarter now. We know that trading away a bunch of picks for a top pick rarely works out. And we know that the best approach to the lottery that is the NFL draft is to gather as many tickets (picks) as possible. That’s why the Browns front office has been applauded for their rebuild.
But this wasn’t always the case. Before Thaler published his paper, he consulted with several NFL teams, the first being Dan Snyder’s Washington Redskins. Thaler told the story of his experience with Snyder on an episode of Sports Illustrated’s “Your Brain on Sports” podcast.
At lunch I told him about the research we were doing about the NFL draft. He got all excited. Well, we want to be the best at everything. I’m going to have my guys come see you right away … Sure enough that Friday, the COO of the operation and the capologist and one other guy — three guys from the team — show up at our office and we run through our results… So we had two lessons for [Dan Snyder]: Trade down and loan picks this year for better picks next year.
Armed with Thaler’s thorough research, Snyder and the Redskins exploited other teams and used the NFL draft to build a dynasty that won multiple Super Bowl titles.
Just kidding. Of course, he ignored Thaler’s advice…
So we had two lessons for [Dan Snyder]: Trade down and loan picks this year for better picks next year. So Cade and I get a six-pack, start watching the draft that year keen to see what the Redskins are gonna do. What do they do? They trade up and they give up a better pick next year to have a better pick this year. We moved onto another team after that.
So why didn’t Snyder take Thaler’s advice?
Via Sports Illustrated:
When he asked the team what happened, Thaler was told: “Mr. Snyder wanted to win now.”
The Redskins have won two playoff games since Snyder bought the team, and exactly one since turning down Thaler’s advice.
And Snyder hasn’t really learned his lesson in the time since. In 2012, he went against Thaler’s advice once again and traded multiple picks to move up four spots to take Robert Griffin III. That 2012 draft is the perfect illustration of why the “right to pick” is overvalued. Griffin was their guy, but at least three quarterbacks who went after him, including Kirk Cousins, have been more successful than RG3.
Pro-tip: When a person as smart as Richard Thaler offers you well-thought-out advice, please take it.
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/10/nfl-richard-thaler-nfl-draft-nobel-prize-dan-snyder-redskins
I know the old NFL draft system versus the modern NBA draft system are different. But the point is just getting draft picks is a good thing according to a Nobel laureate
2/6/2020 4:11 PM
Oh, well it's done. Hoping for the best.