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CashMoney
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USA
7/17/2016  5:14 PM
55 Wins.....ECF!
Blue & Orange 4 Life!
AUTOADVERT
Moonangie
Posts: 24767
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Joined: 7/9/2009
Member: #2788

7/17/2016  5:18 PM
38-43 wins, ECF if we avoid injuries and an early matchup with CLE
nixluva
Posts: 56258
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Member: #758
USA
7/17/2016  5:44 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
nixluva wrote:At the start of last season Rose was not at his best and struggling with the Mask after the Orbital Surgery. What is clear is that he did progress after time and removal of the Mask.

In 49 games without the mask, however, Rose averaged 17.3 points on 44.9 percent shooting from the field.

In 21 games played after the All-Star Break, he averaged 17.4 points on a slash line of .468/.375/.784.

http://dailyknicks.com/2016/07/17/knicks-derrick-roses-trainer-isnt-worried-about-his-health/

IMO with the extra time Rose has had in order to prepare his body and work on his skills, this is a very good situation for the Knicks. Rose has a very good opportunity to play a better brand of ball next season.

I'm still trying to understand why it is that people think the Knicks aren't that talented. Exactly how are teams going to be able to focus on stopping Rose, Melo and KP without leaving Lee or Noah open at some point? That's going to be the trick. As soon as you space the floor and put Rose in a 2 man game the advantage is all Knicks at that point. The defense will be put in a tough situation and most certainly will have to help off of Melo, KP or Lee. I'm not seeing a team that is going to be easy to defend at any point. Especially with Hornacek's aggressive style and approach to the game.

That article is completely disingenuous. The trainer's saying that he hasn't gotten a full offseason to work because of the playoffs but for 3 seasons, 2011/12 through 2013/14, he played in a combined 1 playoff game. The slight uptick in his shooting percentages is exclusively from shooting 37% from 3; something he's never come close to doing over the course of any season of his career. The only other stat that improved was his ORtg but that was offset by his DRtg getting worse by an equal amount.


He was better (but not good) from 2 point range in the 2nd half (.431 vs. .477). Average 2 point % is around 49 and good offenses are closer to 51 or 52% from 2 point range.

Even so, we're talking about 20 games, even less if you break it down by month. Looks like all of his improvement came during a 15 game stretch in March.


Yeah that's a fair comment. And we gave up a very productive center and a 1st round pick (Grant) to get him. We basically paid for his skill set and on the court performance from 2012 and earlier. It was a steep price.

I think the Rose move was well worth the cost and risk. I liked Lopez but he wasn't going to be the difference between winning and losing. He was replaceable. This team needed a push guard that can get to the rim.

The way Rose played in March is a good sign and nothing negative. There was a very distinct upward trajectory of his performance. He may not have reached the highest level possible for him and we need him to play well for an entire season but I think that's what he's working towards and the way he improved last year was a good indication that he is on the right track.

Overall this roster has been retooled with more speed and athletic ability. I think that will have a very positive impact, especially when married with Hornacek's uptempo, spread and aggressive schemes.

Stevo718
Posts: 20456
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Member: #559
7/17/2016  5:56 PM
EnySpree wrote:
Panos wrote:
Stevo718 wrote:54-30 Eastern Conference Finals...

Beat Cleveland in 7... Lose to the Spurs in 7.

A mutha****a can dream right?

But can a mutha****a do math?

BWAHAHAHA!!! I meant Fiddy two and tirdy.

dk7th
Posts: 30006
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USA
7/17/2016  7:07 PM
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
nixluva wrote:At the start of last season Rose was not at his best and struggling with the Mask after the Orbital Surgery. What is clear is that he did progress after time and removal of the Mask.

In 49 games without the mask, however, Rose averaged 17.3 points on 44.9 percent shooting from the field.

In 21 games played after the All-Star Break, he averaged 17.4 points on a slash line of .468/.375/.784.

http://dailyknicks.com/2016/07/17/knicks-derrick-roses-trainer-isnt-worried-about-his-health/

IMO with the extra time Rose has had in order to prepare his body and work on his skills, this is a very good situation for the Knicks. Rose has a very good opportunity to play a better brand of ball next season.

I'm still trying to understand why it is that people think the Knicks aren't that talented. Exactly how are teams going to be able to focus on stopping Rose, Melo and KP without leaving Lee or Noah open at some point? That's going to be the trick. As soon as you space the floor and put Rose in a 2 man game the advantage is all Knicks at that point. The defense will be put in a tough situation and most certainly will have to help off of Melo, KP or Lee. I'm not seeing a team that is going to be easy to defend at any point. Especially with Hornacek's aggressive style and approach to the game.

That article is completely disingenuous. The trainer's saying that he hasn't gotten a full offseason to work because of the playoffs but for 3 seasons, 2011/12 through 2013/14, he played in a combined 1 playoff game. The slight uptick in his shooting percentages is exclusively from shooting 37% from 3; something he's never come close to doing over the course of any season of his career. The only other stat that improved was his ORtg but that was offset by his DRtg getting worse by an equal amount.


He was better (but not good) from 2 point range in the 2nd half (.431 vs. .477). Average 2 point % is around 49 and good offenses are closer to 51 or 52% from 2 point range.

Even so, we're talking about 20 games, even less if you break it down by month. Looks like all of his improvement came during a 15 game stretch in March.


Yeah that's a fair comment. And we gave up a very productive center and a 1st round pick (Grant) to get him. We basically paid for his skill set and on the court performance from 2012 and earlier. It was a steep price.

I think the Rose move was well worth the cost and risk. I liked Lopez but he wasn't going to be the difference between winning and losing. He was replaceable. This team needed a push guard that can get to the rim.

The way Rose played in March is a good sign and nothing negative. There was a very distinct upward trajectory of his performance. He may not have reached the highest level possible for him and we need him to play well for an entire season but I think that's what he's working towards and the way he improved last year was a good indication that he is on the right track.

Overall this roster has been retooled with more speed and athletic ability. I think that will have a very positive impact, especially when married with Hornacek's uptempo, spread and aggressive schemes.

the bulls were 32-34 with rose in the lineup in 2015-16. that means they were 10-6 without rose in the lineup. the bulls were 7-8 the last 15 games of rose's season, ostensibly when he was no longer seeing double.

new season, new team, new opportunity... nonetheless as i have been saying, he has a LOT to prove, nixluva.

knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%
GustavBahler
Posts: 42864
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7/17/2016  7:17 PM
VCoug wrote:
GustavBahler wrote:Rose I believe relied on the 3 ball more last season, took it to the rim less. If this new roster is to succeed Rose is going to have to make them pay for giving him the lane. We have gone through one starting PG after another who couldn't or wouldn't take it to the rim. Made the job of everyone else on the floor more difficult. Felton was the last PG to at least try, but he had trouble finishing.

We have some good 3pt shooters in the starting lineup, Rose needs to focus on drawing the defense away from his teammates. Rose is at a make or break point in his career, this is a great opportunity for him to show that he can make his teammates better. If he does he'll be a star in NY. Im sure Jennings is also going for the number one spot.

He didn't. He took fewer 3FG/game last season then in any other season except his 1st two. From 2010-2015 he took 4.8, 4.4, 4.7, and 5.3 3FG/game. Last year he took 2.3.


My bad, I misremembered a shot chart from this article. It shows his cumulative shots taken and the one I was citing was for the last three years vs the first four. Still dont believe Rose jacking up threes is the way to go, more concerned about him getting to the rim, drawing the defense, getting to the line. Not saying Rose shouldnt shoot threes at all.

https://blog.statmuse.com/rose-and-fall-591ab5da25b#.8hfmgb7j7

nixluva
Posts: 56258
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Member: #758
USA
7/17/2016  7:29 PM
dk7th wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
nixluva wrote:At the start of last season Rose was not at his best and struggling with the Mask after the Orbital Surgery. What is clear is that he did progress after time and removal of the Mask.

In 49 games without the mask, however, Rose averaged 17.3 points on 44.9 percent shooting from the field.

In 21 games played after the All-Star Break, he averaged 17.4 points on a slash line of .468/.375/.784.

http://dailyknicks.com/2016/07/17/knicks-derrick-roses-trainer-isnt-worried-about-his-health/

IMO with the extra time Rose has had in order to prepare his body and work on his skills, this is a very good situation for the Knicks. Rose has a very good opportunity to play a better brand of ball next season.

I'm still trying to understand why it is that people think the Knicks aren't that talented. Exactly how are teams going to be able to focus on stopping Rose, Melo and KP without leaving Lee or Noah open at some point? That's going to be the trick. As soon as you space the floor and put Rose in a 2 man game the advantage is all Knicks at that point. The defense will be put in a tough situation and most certainly will have to help off of Melo, KP or Lee. I'm not seeing a team that is going to be easy to defend at any point. Especially with Hornacek's aggressive style and approach to the game.

That article is completely disingenuous. The trainer's saying that he hasn't gotten a full offseason to work because of the playoffs but for 3 seasons, 2011/12 through 2013/14, he played in a combined 1 playoff game. The slight uptick in his shooting percentages is exclusively from shooting 37% from 3; something he's never come close to doing over the course of any season of his career. The only other stat that improved was his ORtg but that was offset by his DRtg getting worse by an equal amount.


He was better (but not good) from 2 point range in the 2nd half (.431 vs. .477). Average 2 point % is around 49 and good offenses are closer to 51 or 52% from 2 point range.

Even so, we're talking about 20 games, even less if you break it down by month. Looks like all of his improvement came during a 15 game stretch in March.


Yeah that's a fair comment. And we gave up a very productive center and a 1st round pick (Grant) to get him. We basically paid for his skill set and on the court performance from 2012 and earlier. It was a steep price.

I think the Rose move was well worth the cost and risk. I liked Lopez but he wasn't going to be the difference between winning and losing. He was replaceable. This team needed a push guard that can get to the rim.

The way Rose played in March is a good sign and nothing negative. There was a very distinct upward trajectory of his performance. He may not have reached the highest level possible for him and we need him to play well for an entire season but I think that's what he's working towards and the way he improved last year was a good indication that he is on the right track.

Overall this roster has been retooled with more speed and athletic ability. I think that will have a very positive impact, especially when married with Hornacek's uptempo, spread and aggressive schemes.

the bulls were 32-34 with rose in the lineup in 2015-16. that means they were 10-6 without rose in the lineup. the bulls were 7-8 the last 15 games of rose's season, ostensibly when he was no longer seeing double.

new season, new team, new opportunity... nonetheless as i have been saying, he has a LOT to prove, nixluva.


You and Bonn seem to believe in this notion that how Rose played last year is really a true indication of what he's going to be in NY. I'm sure that Rose's poor play was a negative factor for the Bulls. Where I disagree with you and Bonn is that I don't expect that the Rose we'll see is going to be the same player that struggled last season. Missing time before the season dealing with his Facial Surgery and then dealing with the Mask negatively impacted Rose. You guys are practically dismissing the impact of that freak injury to his eye socket but i'm not. I'm saying that it was directly responsible for a lot of his struggles. He did improve and I expect that to continue. I expect Rose to come in better prepared, healthier and motivated.

I expect that Hornacek will find a way to merge the talents he has on this roster. There is considerable talent on this roster and some untapped talent that is still in development. JH has a style of play that makes the game easier for his players and helps to maximize their talent and make them more efficient. You put these players in more PnR and spread situations and they're gonna shine.

meloshouldgo
Posts: 26565
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Joined: 5/3/2014
Member: #5801

7/17/2016  7:37 PM
nixluva wrote:
dk7th wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
nixluva wrote:At the start of last season Rose was not at his best and struggling with the Mask after the Orbital Surgery. What is clear is that he did progress after time and removal of the Mask.

In 49 games without the mask, however, Rose averaged 17.3 points on 44.9 percent shooting from the field.

In 21 games played after the All-Star Break, he averaged 17.4 points on a slash line of .468/.375/.784.

http://dailyknicks.com/2016/07/17/knicks-derrick-roses-trainer-isnt-worried-about-his-health/

IMO with the extra time Rose has had in order to prepare his body and work on his skills, this is a very good situation for the Knicks. Rose has a very good opportunity to play a better brand of ball next season.

I'm still trying to understand why it is that people think the Knicks aren't that talented. Exactly how are teams going to be able to focus on stopping Rose, Melo and KP without leaving Lee or Noah open at some point? That's going to be the trick. As soon as you space the floor and put Rose in a 2 man game the advantage is all Knicks at that point. The defense will be put in a tough situation and most certainly will have to help off of Melo, KP or Lee. I'm not seeing a team that is going to be easy to defend at any point. Especially with Hornacek's aggressive style and approach to the game.

That article is completely disingenuous. The trainer's saying that he hasn't gotten a full offseason to work because of the playoffs but for 3 seasons, 2011/12 through 2013/14, he played in a combined 1 playoff game. The slight uptick in his shooting percentages is exclusively from shooting 37% from 3; something he's never come close to doing over the course of any season of his career. The only other stat that improved was his ORtg but that was offset by his DRtg getting worse by an equal amount.


He was better (but not good) from 2 point range in the 2nd half (.431 vs. .477). Average 2 point % is around 49 and good offenses are closer to 51 or 52% from 2 point range.

Even so, we're talking about 20 games, even less if you break it down by month. Looks like all of his improvement came during a 15 game stretch in March.


Yeah that's a fair comment. And we gave up a very productive center and a 1st round pick (Grant) to get him. We basically paid for his skill set and on the court performance from 2012 and earlier. It was a steep price.

I think the Rose move was well worth the cost and risk. I liked Lopez but he wasn't going to be the difference between winning and losing. He was replaceable. This team needed a push guard that can get to the rim.

The way Rose played in March is a good sign and nothing negative. There was a very distinct upward trajectory of his performance. He may not have reached the highest level possible for him and we need him to play well for an entire season but I think that's what he's working towards and the way he improved last year was a good indication that he is on the right track.

Overall this roster has been retooled with more speed and athletic ability. I think that will have a very positive impact, especially when married with Hornacek's uptempo, spread and aggressive schemes.

the bulls were 32-34 with rose in the lineup in 2015-16. that means they were 10-6 without rose in the lineup. the bulls were 7-8 the last 15 games of rose's season, ostensibly when he was no longer seeing double.

new season, new team, new opportunity... nonetheless as i have been saying, he has a LOT to prove, nixluva.


You and Bonn seem to believe in this notion that how Rose played last year is really a true indication of what he's going to be in NY. I'm sure that Rose's poor play was a negative factor for the Bulls. Where I disagree with you and Bonn is that I don't expect that the Rose we'll see is going to be the same player that struggled last season. Missing time before the season dealing with his Facial Surgery and then dealing with the Mask negatively impacted Rose. You guys are practically dismissing the impact of that freak injury to his eye socket but i'm not. I'm saying that it was directly responsible for a lot of his struggles. He did improve and I expect that to continue. I expect Rose to come in better prepared, healthier and motivated.

I expect that Hornacek will find a way to merge the talents he has on this roster. There is considerable talent on this roster and some untapped talent that is still in development. JH has a style of play that makes the game easier for his players and helps to maximize their talent and make them more efficient. You put these players in more PnR and spread situations and they're gonna shine.

I think they are both pointing out actual data and results, you are countering by what you believe in, those two things are not the same. You can of course believe Rose will get better but there is no data to support that. If you are going to use data to project how he will play the last year's data is the most relevant. Data and belief systems don't mesh.

I cannot teach anybody anything. I can only try to make them think - Socrates
Bonn1997
Posts: 58654
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7/17/2016  7:52 PM
meloshouldgo wrote:
nixluva wrote:
dk7th wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
nixluva wrote:At the start of last season Rose was not at his best and struggling with the Mask after the Orbital Surgery. What is clear is that he did progress after time and removal of the Mask.

In 49 games without the mask, however, Rose averaged 17.3 points on 44.9 percent shooting from the field.

In 21 games played after the All-Star Break, he averaged 17.4 points on a slash line of .468/.375/.784.

http://dailyknicks.com/2016/07/17/knicks-derrick-roses-trainer-isnt-worried-about-his-health/

IMO with the extra time Rose has had in order to prepare his body and work on his skills, this is a very good situation for the Knicks. Rose has a very good opportunity to play a better brand of ball next season.

I'm still trying to understand why it is that people think the Knicks aren't that talented. Exactly how are teams going to be able to focus on stopping Rose, Melo and KP without leaving Lee or Noah open at some point? That's going to be the trick. As soon as you space the floor and put Rose in a 2 man game the advantage is all Knicks at that point. The defense will be put in a tough situation and most certainly will have to help off of Melo, KP or Lee. I'm not seeing a team that is going to be easy to defend at any point. Especially with Hornacek's aggressive style and approach to the game.

That article is completely disingenuous. The trainer's saying that he hasn't gotten a full offseason to work because of the playoffs but for 3 seasons, 2011/12 through 2013/14, he played in a combined 1 playoff game. The slight uptick in his shooting percentages is exclusively from shooting 37% from 3; something he's never come close to doing over the course of any season of his career. The only other stat that improved was his ORtg but that was offset by his DRtg getting worse by an equal amount.


He was better (but not good) from 2 point range in the 2nd half (.431 vs. .477). Average 2 point % is around 49 and good offenses are closer to 51 or 52% from 2 point range.

Even so, we're talking about 20 games, even less if you break it down by month. Looks like all of his improvement came during a 15 game stretch in March.


Yeah that's a fair comment. And we gave up a very productive center and a 1st round pick (Grant) to get him. We basically paid for his skill set and on the court performance from 2012 and earlier. It was a steep price.

I think the Rose move was well worth the cost and risk. I liked Lopez but he wasn't going to be the difference between winning and losing. He was replaceable. This team needed a push guard that can get to the rim.

The way Rose played in March is a good sign and nothing negative. There was a very distinct upward trajectory of his performance. He may not have reached the highest level possible for him and we need him to play well for an entire season but I think that's what he's working towards and the way he improved last year was a good indication that he is on the right track.

Overall this roster has been retooled with more speed and athletic ability. I think that will have a very positive impact, especially when married with Hornacek's uptempo, spread and aggressive schemes.

the bulls were 32-34 with rose in the lineup in 2015-16. that means they were 10-6 without rose in the lineup. the bulls were 7-8 the last 15 games of rose's season, ostensibly when he was no longer seeing double.

new season, new team, new opportunity... nonetheless as i have been saying, he has a LOT to prove, nixluva.


You and Bonn seem to believe in this notion that how Rose played last year is really a true indication of what he's going to be in NY. I'm sure that Rose's poor play was a negative factor for the Bulls. Where I disagree with you and Bonn is that I don't expect that the Rose we'll see is going to be the same player that struggled last season. Missing time before the season dealing with his Facial Surgery and then dealing with the Mask negatively impacted Rose. You guys are practically dismissing the impact of that freak injury to his eye socket but i'm not. I'm saying that it was directly responsible for a lot of his struggles. He did improve and I expect that to continue. I expect Rose to come in better prepared, healthier and motivated.

I expect that Hornacek will find a way to merge the talents he has on this roster. There is considerable talent on this roster and some untapped talent that is still in development. JH has a style of play that makes the game easier for his players and helps to maximize their talent and make them more efficient. You put these players in more PnR and spread situations and they're gonna shine.



I think they are both pointing out actual data and results, you are countering by what you believe in, those two things are not the same.
You can of course believe Rose will get better but there is no data to support that. If you are going to use data to project how he will play the last year's data is the most relevant. Data and belief systems don't mesh.

Exactly. If a poster says he thinks next year will be the first in four years where a player will be healthy, there's really no way to argue with it. I don't ignore injury history. Players with recurrent injury problems tend to stay that way even if they have one off-season when they're healthy. That said, I've said I think there's a small chance that Rose and Noah stay healthy and have a better mindset (Rose) and the team does very well. What else do you want, Nix? You're not going to give up until I believe there's a high chance they'll do very well?
nixluva
Posts: 56258
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Member: #758
USA
7/17/2016  8:21 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:
meloshouldgo wrote:
nixluva wrote:
dk7th wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
nixluva wrote:At the start of last season Rose was not at his best and struggling with the Mask after the Orbital Surgery. What is clear is that he did progress after time and removal of the Mask.

In 49 games without the mask, however, Rose averaged 17.3 points on 44.9 percent shooting from the field.

In 21 games played after the All-Star Break, he averaged 17.4 points on a slash line of .468/.375/.784.

http://dailyknicks.com/2016/07/17/knicks-derrick-roses-trainer-isnt-worried-about-his-health/

IMO with the extra time Rose has had in order to prepare his body and work on his skills, this is a very good situation for the Knicks. Rose has a very good opportunity to play a better brand of ball next season.

I'm still trying to understand why it is that people think the Knicks aren't that talented. Exactly how are teams going to be able to focus on stopping Rose, Melo and KP without leaving Lee or Noah open at some point? That's going to be the trick. As soon as you space the floor and put Rose in a 2 man game the advantage is all Knicks at that point. The defense will be put in a tough situation and most certainly will have to help off of Melo, KP or Lee. I'm not seeing a team that is going to be easy to defend at any point. Especially with Hornacek's aggressive style and approach to the game.

That article is completely disingenuous. The trainer's saying that he hasn't gotten a full offseason to work because of the playoffs but for 3 seasons, 2011/12 through 2013/14, he played in a combined 1 playoff game. The slight uptick in his shooting percentages is exclusively from shooting 37% from 3; something he's never come close to doing over the course of any season of his career. The only other stat that improved was his ORtg but that was offset by his DRtg getting worse by an equal amount.


He was better (but not good) from 2 point range in the 2nd half (.431 vs. .477). Average 2 point % is around 49 and good offenses are closer to 51 or 52% from 2 point range.

Even so, we're talking about 20 games, even less if you break it down by month. Looks like all of his improvement came during a 15 game stretch in March.


Yeah that's a fair comment. And we gave up a very productive center and a 1st round pick (Grant) to get him. We basically paid for his skill set and on the court performance from 2012 and earlier. It was a steep price.

I think the Rose move was well worth the cost and risk. I liked Lopez but he wasn't going to be the difference between winning and losing. He was replaceable. This team needed a push guard that can get to the rim.

The way Rose played in March is a good sign and nothing negative. There was a very distinct upward trajectory of his performance. He may not have reached the highest level possible for him and we need him to play well for an entire season but I think that's what he's working towards and the way he improved last year was a good indication that he is on the right track.

Overall this roster has been retooled with more speed and athletic ability. I think that will have a very positive impact, especially when married with Hornacek's uptempo, spread and aggressive schemes.

the bulls were 32-34 with rose in the lineup in 2015-16. that means they were 10-6 without rose in the lineup. the bulls were 7-8 the last 15 games of rose's season, ostensibly when he was no longer seeing double.

new season, new team, new opportunity... nonetheless as i have been saying, he has a LOT to prove, nixluva.


You and Bonn seem to believe in this notion that how Rose played last year is really a true indication of what he's going to be in NY. I'm sure that Rose's poor play was a negative factor for the Bulls. Where I disagree with you and Bonn is that I don't expect that the Rose we'll see is going to be the same player that struggled last season. Missing time before the season dealing with his Facial Surgery and then dealing with the Mask negatively impacted Rose. You guys are practically dismissing the impact of that freak injury to his eye socket but i'm not. I'm saying that it was directly responsible for a lot of his struggles. He did improve and I expect that to continue. I expect Rose to come in better prepared, healthier and motivated.

I expect that Hornacek will find a way to merge the talents he has on this roster. There is considerable talent on this roster and some untapped talent that is still in development. JH has a style of play that makes the game easier for his players and helps to maximize their talent and make them more efficient. You put these players in more PnR and spread situations and they're gonna shine.



I think they are both pointing out actual data and results, you are countering by what you believe in, those two things are not the same.
You can of course believe Rose will get better but there is no data to support that. If you are going to use data to project how he will play the last year's data is the most relevant. Data and belief systems don't mesh.

Exactly. If a poster says he thinks next year will be the first in four years where a player will be healthy, there's really no way to argue with it. I don't ignore injury history. Players with recurrent injury problems tend to stay that way even if they have one off-season when they're healthy. That said, I've said I think there's a small chance that Rose and Noah stay healthy and have a better mindset (Rose) and the team does very well. What else do you want, Nix? You're not going to give up until I believe there's a high chance they'll do very well?

No it's not about me giving up. I'm just looking at the same data PLUS taking into account the factors that likely contributed to Rose starting off so poorly. The trajectory of the data shows that he was getting better and so even in my take on things it's still data supported. Rose was never a great shooter, but I believe he will get back to where he once was and HOPE even better in terms of efficiency and team play.

Just to compare Rose this year with his best years. Once you get past the poor early start he started to pick things up and come closer to how he played in his best years.


2015-16 eFG% TS%
November 37.3 40.7
December 43.7 46.1
January 48.8 52.6
February 45.8 50.8
March 49.3 51.1


2008-09 48.2 51.6
2009-10 49.5 53.2
2010-11 48.5 55.0
2011-12 47.3 53.2
GustavBahler
Posts: 42864
Alba Posts: 15
Joined: 7/12/2010
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7/17/2016  8:28 PM
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
meloshouldgo wrote:
nixluva wrote:
dk7th wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
nixluva wrote:At the start of last season Rose was not at his best and struggling with the Mask after the Orbital Surgery. What is clear is that he did progress after time and removal of the Mask.

In 49 games without the mask, however, Rose averaged 17.3 points on 44.9 percent shooting from the field.

In 21 games played after the All-Star Break, he averaged 17.4 points on a slash line of .468/.375/.784.

http://dailyknicks.com/2016/07/17/knicks-derrick-roses-trainer-isnt-worried-about-his-health/

IMO with the extra time Rose has had in order to prepare his body and work on his skills, this is a very good situation for the Knicks. Rose has a very good opportunity to play a better brand of ball next season.

I'm still trying to understand why it is that people think the Knicks aren't that talented. Exactly how are teams going to be able to focus on stopping Rose, Melo and KP without leaving Lee or Noah open at some point? That's going to be the trick. As soon as you space the floor and put Rose in a 2 man game the advantage is all Knicks at that point. The defense will be put in a tough situation and most certainly will have to help off of Melo, KP or Lee. I'm not seeing a team that is going to be easy to defend at any point. Especially with Hornacek's aggressive style and approach to the game.

That article is completely disingenuous. The trainer's saying that he hasn't gotten a full offseason to work because of the playoffs but for 3 seasons, 2011/12 through 2013/14, he played in a combined 1 playoff game. The slight uptick in his shooting percentages is exclusively from shooting 37% from 3; something he's never come close to doing over the course of any season of his career. The only other stat that improved was his ORtg but that was offset by his DRtg getting worse by an equal amount.


He was better (but not good) from 2 point range in the 2nd half (.431 vs. .477). Average 2 point % is around 49 and good offenses are closer to 51 or 52% from 2 point range.

Even so, we're talking about 20 games, even less if you break it down by month. Looks like all of his improvement came during a 15 game stretch in March.


Yeah that's a fair comment. And we gave up a very productive center and a 1st round pick (Grant) to get him. We basically paid for his skill set and on the court performance from 2012 and earlier. It was a steep price.

I think the Rose move was well worth the cost and risk. I liked Lopez but he wasn't going to be the difference between winning and losing. He was replaceable. This team needed a push guard that can get to the rim.

The way Rose played in March is a good sign and nothing negative. There was a very distinct upward trajectory of his performance. He may not have reached the highest level possible for him and we need him to play well for an entire season but I think that's what he's working towards and the way he improved last year was a good indication that he is on the right track.

Overall this roster has been retooled with more speed and athletic ability. I think that will have a very positive impact, especially when married with Hornacek's uptempo, spread and aggressive schemes.

the bulls were 32-34 with rose in the lineup in 2015-16. that means they were 10-6 without rose in the lineup. the bulls were 7-8 the last 15 games of rose's season, ostensibly when he was no longer seeing double.

new season, new team, new opportunity... nonetheless as i have been saying, he has a LOT to prove, nixluva.


You and Bonn seem to believe in this notion that how Rose played last year is really a true indication of what he's going to be in NY. I'm sure that Rose's poor play was a negative factor for the Bulls. Where I disagree with you and Bonn is that I don't expect that the Rose we'll see is going to be the same player that struggled last season. Missing time before the season dealing with his Facial Surgery and then dealing with the Mask negatively impacted Rose. You guys are practically dismissing the impact of that freak injury to his eye socket but i'm not. I'm saying that it was directly responsible for a lot of his struggles. He did improve and I expect that to continue. I expect Rose to come in better prepared, healthier and motivated.

I expect that Hornacek will find a way to merge the talents he has on this roster. There is considerable talent on this roster and some untapped talent that is still in development. JH has a style of play that makes the game easier for his players and helps to maximize their talent and make them more efficient. You put these players in more PnR and spread situations and they're gonna shine.



I think they are both pointing out actual data and results, you are countering by what you believe in, those two things are not the same.
You can of course believe Rose will get better but there is no data to support that. If you are going to use data to project how he will play the last year's data is the most relevant. Data and belief systems don't mesh.

Exactly. If a poster says he thinks next year will be the first in four years where a player will be healthy, there's really no way to argue with it. I don't ignore injury history. Players with recurrent injury problems tend to stay that way even if they have one off-season when they're healthy. That said, I've said I think there's a small chance that Rose and Noah stay healthy and have a better mindset (Rose) and the team does very well. What else do you want, Nix? You're not going to give up until I believe there's a high chance they'll do very well?

No it's not about me giving up. I'm just looking at the same data PLUS taking into account the factors that likely contributed to Rose starting off so poorly. The trajectory of the data shows that he was getting better and so even in my take on things it's still data supported. Rose was never a great shooter, but I believe he will get back to where he once was and HOPE even better in terms of efficiency and team play.

Just to compare Rose this year with his best years. Once you get past the poor early start he started to pick things up and come closer to how he played in his best years.


2015-16 eFG% TS%
November 37.3 40.7
December 43.7 46.1
January 48.8 52.6
February 45.8 50.8
March 49.3 51.1


2008-09 48.2 51.6
2009-10 49.5 53.2
2010-11 48.5 55.0
2011-12 47.3 53.2

Bonn's point was about factoring in Rose's injury history, which you seem to be glossing over.

nixluva
Posts: 56258
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 10/5/2004
Member: #758
USA
7/17/2016  8:42 PM    LAST EDITED: 7/17/2016  8:42 PM
GustavBahler wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
meloshouldgo wrote:
nixluva wrote:
dk7th wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
nixluva wrote:At the start of last season Rose was not at his best and struggling with the Mask after the Orbital Surgery. What is clear is that he did progress after time and removal of the Mask.

In 49 games without the mask, however, Rose averaged 17.3 points on 44.9 percent shooting from the field.

In 21 games played after the All-Star Break, he averaged 17.4 points on a slash line of .468/.375/.784.

http://dailyknicks.com/2016/07/17/knicks-derrick-roses-trainer-isnt-worried-about-his-health/

IMO with the extra time Rose has had in order to prepare his body and work on his skills, this is a very good situation for the Knicks. Rose has a very good opportunity to play a better brand of ball next season.

I'm still trying to understand why it is that people think the Knicks aren't that talented. Exactly how are teams going to be able to focus on stopping Rose, Melo and KP without leaving Lee or Noah open at some point? That's going to be the trick. As soon as you space the floor and put Rose in a 2 man game the advantage is all Knicks at that point. The defense will be put in a tough situation and most certainly will have to help off of Melo, KP or Lee. I'm not seeing a team that is going to be easy to defend at any point. Especially with Hornacek's aggressive style and approach to the game.

That article is completely disingenuous. The trainer's saying that he hasn't gotten a full offseason to work because of the playoffs but for 3 seasons, 2011/12 through 2013/14, he played in a combined 1 playoff game. The slight uptick in his shooting percentages is exclusively from shooting 37% from 3; something he's never come close to doing over the course of any season of his career. The only other stat that improved was his ORtg but that was offset by his DRtg getting worse by an equal amount.


He was better (but not good) from 2 point range in the 2nd half (.431 vs. .477). Average 2 point % is around 49 and good offenses are closer to 51 or 52% from 2 point range.

Even so, we're talking about 20 games, even less if you break it down by month. Looks like all of his improvement came during a 15 game stretch in March.


Yeah that's a fair comment. And we gave up a very productive center and a 1st round pick (Grant) to get him. We basically paid for his skill set and on the court performance from 2012 and earlier. It was a steep price.

I think the Rose move was well worth the cost and risk. I liked Lopez but he wasn't going to be the difference between winning and losing. He was replaceable. This team needed a push guard that can get to the rim.

The way Rose played in March is a good sign and nothing negative. There was a very distinct upward trajectory of his performance. He may not have reached the highest level possible for him and we need him to play well for an entire season but I think that's what he's working towards and the way he improved last year was a good indication that he is on the right track.

Overall this roster has been retooled with more speed and athletic ability. I think that will have a very positive impact, especially when married with Hornacek's uptempo, spread and aggressive schemes.

the bulls were 32-34 with rose in the lineup in 2015-16. that means they were 10-6 without rose in the lineup. the bulls were 7-8 the last 15 games of rose's season, ostensibly when he was no longer seeing double.

new season, new team, new opportunity... nonetheless as i have been saying, he has a LOT to prove, nixluva.


You and Bonn seem to believe in this notion that how Rose played last year is really a true indication of what he's going to be in NY. I'm sure that Rose's poor play was a negative factor for the Bulls. Where I disagree with you and Bonn is that I don't expect that the Rose we'll see is going to be the same player that struggled last season. Missing time before the season dealing with his Facial Surgery and then dealing with the Mask negatively impacted Rose. You guys are practically dismissing the impact of that freak injury to his eye socket but i'm not. I'm saying that it was directly responsible for a lot of his struggles. He did improve and I expect that to continue. I expect Rose to come in better prepared, healthier and motivated.

I expect that Hornacek will find a way to merge the talents he has on this roster. There is considerable talent on this roster and some untapped talent that is still in development. JH has a style of play that makes the game easier for his players and helps to maximize their talent and make them more efficient. You put these players in more PnR and spread situations and they're gonna shine.



I think they are both pointing out actual data and results, you are countering by what you believe in, those two things are not the same.
You can of course believe Rose will get better but there is no data to support that. If you are going to use data to project how he will play the last year's data is the most relevant. Data and belief systems don't mesh.

Exactly. If a poster says he thinks next year will be the first in four years where a player will be healthy, there's really no way to argue with it. I don't ignore injury history. Players with recurrent injury problems tend to stay that way even if they have one off-season when they're healthy. That said, I've said I think there's a small chance that Rose and Noah stay healthy and have a better mindset (Rose) and the team does very well. What else do you want, Nix? You're not going to give up until I believe there's a high chance they'll do very well?

No it's not about me giving up. I'm just looking at the same data PLUS taking into account the factors that likely contributed to Rose starting off so poorly. The trajectory of the data shows that he was getting better and so even in my take on things it's still data supported. Rose was never a great shooter, but I believe he will get back to where he once was and HOPE even better in terms of efficiency and team play.

Just to compare Rose this year with his best years. Once you get past the poor early start he started to pick things up and come closer to how he played in his best years.


2015-16 eFG% TS%
November 37.3 40.7
December 43.7 46.1
January 48.8 52.6
February 45.8 50.8
March 49.3 51.1


2008-09 48.2 51.6
2009-10 49.5 53.2
2010-11 48.5 55.0
2011-12 47.3 53.2

Bonn's point was about factoring in Rose's injury history, which you seem to be glossing over.


No! Not glossing over. I mentioned his injuries but let's remember that last year he didn't have another Knee injury. He had the Orbital Fracture which was a freak accident that anyone can get if someone smashes them in the face with an elbow. Nothing chronic about that.
Rose's last Knee Surgery was Feb. 2015

A timetable for Rose's return will be determined once he has surgery, the team said. The Bulls and Rose decided to fix the meniscus tear instead of cutting the damaged part out in order to elongate Rose's career.

Rose then came back in that same season and played in 2 rounds of the playoffs averaging 38 mpg.

2014-2015 POSTSEASON GAME LOG
DATE OPP SCORE MIN FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
Thu 5/14 vsCLE L 73-94 36 7-16 .438 0-3 .000 0-0 .000 2 6 0 0 1 2 14
Tue 5/12 @ CLE L 101-106 43 7-24 .292 0-4 .000 2-3 .667 9 7 1 3 1 1 16
Sun 5/10 vsCLE L 84-86 41 11-23 .478 2-5 .400 7-7 1.000 2 4 0 0 0 2 31
Fri 5/8 vsCLE W 99-96 39 10-26 .385 1-3 .333 9-10 .900 7 7 1 1 2 3 30
Wed 5/6 @ CLE L 91-106 37 6-20 .300 2-5 .400 0-0 .000 7 10 1 0 4 2 14
Mon 5/4 @ CLE W 99-92 39 11-26 .423 3-6 .500 0-0 .000 5 5 0 1 3 2 25
Conference Semifinals 39.2 8.7-22.5 .385 1.3-4.3 .308 3.0-3.3 .900 5.3 6.5 0.5 0.8 1.8 2.0 21.7

DATE OPP SCORE MIN FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
Thu 4/30 @ MIL W 120-66 25 6-14 .429 3-7 .429 0-0 .000 5 7 0 1 1 2 15
Mon 4/27 vsMIL L 88-94 42 5-20 .250 0-7 .000 3-4 .750 4 2 0 1 1 6 13
Sat 4/25 @ MIL L 90-92 39 5-13 .385 2-4 .500 2-2 1.000 5 6 1 1 1 8 14
Thu 4/23 @ MIL W 113-106 48 12-23 .522 5-9 .556 5-6 .833 5 8 0 3 2 3 34
Mon 4/20 vsMIL W 91-82 38 4-14 .286 2-6 .333 5-5 1.000 7 9 1 1 3 3 15
Sat 4/18 vsMIL W 103-91 27 9-16 .563 3-7 .429 2-2 1.000 0 7 1 2 3 4 23
Conference Quarterfinals 36.5 6.8-16.7 .410 2.5-6.7 .375 2.8-3.2 .895 4.3 6.5 0.5 1.5 1.8 4.3 19.0

POSTSEASON STATS MIN FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
Averages 37.8 7.8-19.6 .396 1.9-5.5 .348 2.9-3.3 .897 4.8 6.5 0.5 1.2 1.8 3.2 20.3
Totals 454 93-235 .396 23-66 .348 35-39 .897 58 78 6 14 22 38 244

This was a little over a month after his last Knee surgery!!! Since then the only thing that set him back was the Elbow to the Face.

Bonn1997
Posts: 58654
Alba Posts: 2
Joined: 2/2/2004
Member: #581
USA
7/17/2016  8:50 PM
GustavBahler wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
meloshouldgo wrote:
nixluva wrote:
dk7th wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
nixluva wrote:At the start of last season Rose was not at his best and struggling with the Mask after the Orbital Surgery. What is clear is that he did progress after time and removal of the Mask.

In 49 games without the mask, however, Rose averaged 17.3 points on 44.9 percent shooting from the field.

In 21 games played after the All-Star Break, he averaged 17.4 points on a slash line of .468/.375/.784.

http://dailyknicks.com/2016/07/17/knicks-derrick-roses-trainer-isnt-worried-about-his-health/

IMO with the extra time Rose has had in order to prepare his body and work on his skills, this is a very good situation for the Knicks. Rose has a very good opportunity to play a better brand of ball next season.

I'm still trying to understand why it is that people think the Knicks aren't that talented. Exactly how are teams going to be able to focus on stopping Rose, Melo and KP without leaving Lee or Noah open at some point? That's going to be the trick. As soon as you space the floor and put Rose in a 2 man game the advantage is all Knicks at that point. The defense will be put in a tough situation and most certainly will have to help off of Melo, KP or Lee. I'm not seeing a team that is going to be easy to defend at any point. Especially with Hornacek's aggressive style and approach to the game.

That article is completely disingenuous. The trainer's saying that he hasn't gotten a full offseason to work because of the playoffs but for 3 seasons, 2011/12 through 2013/14, he played in a combined 1 playoff game. The slight uptick in his shooting percentages is exclusively from shooting 37% from 3; something he's never come close to doing over the course of any season of his career. The only other stat that improved was his ORtg but that was offset by his DRtg getting worse by an equal amount.


He was better (but not good) from 2 point range in the 2nd half (.431 vs. .477). Average 2 point % is around 49 and good offenses are closer to 51 or 52% from 2 point range.

Even so, we're talking about 20 games, even less if you break it down by month. Looks like all of his improvement came during a 15 game stretch in March.


Yeah that's a fair comment. And we gave up a very productive center and a 1st round pick (Grant) to get him. We basically paid for his skill set and on the court performance from 2012 and earlier. It was a steep price.

I think the Rose move was well worth the cost and risk. I liked Lopez but he wasn't going to be the difference between winning and losing. He was replaceable. This team needed a push guard that can get to the rim.

The way Rose played in March is a good sign and nothing negative. There was a very distinct upward trajectory of his performance. He may not have reached the highest level possible for him and we need him to play well for an entire season but I think that's what he's working towards and the way he improved last year was a good indication that he is on the right track.

Overall this roster has been retooled with more speed and athletic ability. I think that will have a very positive impact, especially when married with Hornacek's uptempo, spread and aggressive schemes.

the bulls were 32-34 with rose in the lineup in 2015-16. that means they were 10-6 without rose in the lineup. the bulls were 7-8 the last 15 games of rose's season, ostensibly when he was no longer seeing double.

new season, new team, new opportunity... nonetheless as i have been saying, he has a LOT to prove, nixluva.


You and Bonn seem to believe in this notion that how Rose played last year is really a true indication of what he's going to be in NY. I'm sure that Rose's poor play was a negative factor for the Bulls. Where I disagree with you and Bonn is that I don't expect that the Rose we'll see is going to be the same player that struggled last season. Missing time before the season dealing with his Facial Surgery and then dealing with the Mask negatively impacted Rose. You guys are practically dismissing the impact of that freak injury to his eye socket but i'm not. I'm saying that it was directly responsible for a lot of his struggles. He did improve and I expect that to continue. I expect Rose to come in better prepared, healthier and motivated.

I expect that Hornacek will find a way to merge the talents he has on this roster. There is considerable talent on this roster and some untapped talent that is still in development. JH has a style of play that makes the game easier for his players and helps to maximize their talent and make them more efficient. You put these players in more PnR and spread situations and they're gonna shine.



I think they are both pointing out actual data and results, you are countering by what you believe in, those two things are not the same.
You can of course believe Rose will get better but there is no data to support that. If you are going to use data to project how he will play the last year's data is the most relevant. Data and belief systems don't mesh.

Exactly. If a poster says he thinks next year will be the first in four years where a player will be healthy, there's really no way to argue with it. I don't ignore injury history. Players with recurrent injury problems tend to stay that way even if they have one off-season when they're healthy. That said, I've said I think there's a small chance that Rose and Noah stay healthy and have a better mindset (Rose) and the team does very well. What else do you want, Nix? You're not going to give up until I believe there's a high chance they'll do very well?

No it's not about me giving up. I'm just looking at the same data PLUS taking into account the factors that likely contributed to Rose starting off so poorly. The trajectory of the data shows that he was getting better and so even in my take on things it's still data supported. Rose was never a great shooter, but I believe he will get back to where he once was and HOPE even better in terms of efficiency and team play.

Just to compare Rose this year with his best years. Once you get past the poor early start he started to pick things up and come closer to how he played in his best years.


2015-16 eFG% TS%
November 37.3 40.7
December 43.7 46.1
January 48.8 52.6
February 45.8 50.8
March 49.3 51.1


2008-09 48.2 51.6
2009-10 49.5 53.2
2010-11 48.5 55.0
2011-12 47.3 53.2

Bonn's point was about factoring in Rose's injury history, which you seem to be glossing over.


Thank you. That's exactly the point.

Also, those 2015-16 #s are below average every month. He got better in the sense that he was less below average January through March. And at least part of that had to do with an unusually high 3 point % (38 vs. his career average of 30), which seems more like random fluctuation than a sudden huge improvement in his ability. He's going to have to a) stay healthy for the first time in a long time, b) have better shot selection, and c) hit at better rates from each spot on the floor. B means he has to take better shots and C means even if he shoots high percentage shots, he has to actually do a better job than he's been doing at converting them. It's A LOT of IFs. Then Noah has to stay healthy too and shoot better than last year.

I don't ignore that all of these ifs could happen. But from a statistical perspective, it's hard to say the odds are high.

nixluva
Posts: 56258
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 10/5/2004
Member: #758
USA
7/17/2016  9:47 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:
GustavBahler wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
meloshouldgo wrote:
nixluva wrote:
dk7th wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
nixluva wrote:At the start of last season Rose was not at his best and struggling with the Mask after the Orbital Surgery. What is clear is that he did progress after time and removal of the Mask.

In 49 games without the mask, however, Rose averaged 17.3 points on 44.9 percent shooting from the field.

In 21 games played after the All-Star Break, he averaged 17.4 points on a slash line of .468/.375/.784.

http://dailyknicks.com/2016/07/17/knicks-derrick-roses-trainer-isnt-worried-about-his-health/

IMO with the extra time Rose has had in order to prepare his body and work on his skills, this is a very good situation for the Knicks. Rose has a very good opportunity to play a better brand of ball next season.

I'm still trying to understand why it is that people think the Knicks aren't that talented. Exactly how are teams going to be able to focus on stopping Rose, Melo and KP without leaving Lee or Noah open at some point? That's going to be the trick. As soon as you space the floor and put Rose in a 2 man game the advantage is all Knicks at that point. The defense will be put in a tough situation and most certainly will have to help off of Melo, KP or Lee. I'm not seeing a team that is going to be easy to defend at any point. Especially with Hornacek's aggressive style and approach to the game.

That article is completely disingenuous. The trainer's saying that he hasn't gotten a full offseason to work because of the playoffs but for 3 seasons, 2011/12 through 2013/14, he played in a combined 1 playoff game. The slight uptick in his shooting percentages is exclusively from shooting 37% from 3; something he's never come close to doing over the course of any season of his career. The only other stat that improved was his ORtg but that was offset by his DRtg getting worse by an equal amount.


He was better (but not good) from 2 point range in the 2nd half (.431 vs. .477). Average 2 point % is around 49 and good offenses are closer to 51 or 52% from 2 point range.

Even so, we're talking about 20 games, even less if you break it down by month. Looks like all of his improvement came during a 15 game stretch in March.


Yeah that's a fair comment. And we gave up a very productive center and a 1st round pick (Grant) to get him. We basically paid for his skill set and on the court performance from 2012 and earlier. It was a steep price.

I think the Rose move was well worth the cost and risk. I liked Lopez but he wasn't going to be the difference between winning and losing. He was replaceable. This team needed a push guard that can get to the rim.

The way Rose played in March is a good sign and nothing negative. There was a very distinct upward trajectory of his performance. He may not have reached the highest level possible for him and we need him to play well for an entire season but I think that's what he's working towards and the way he improved last year was a good indication that he is on the right track.

Overall this roster has been retooled with more speed and athletic ability. I think that will have a very positive impact, especially when married with Hornacek's uptempo, spread and aggressive schemes.

the bulls were 32-34 with rose in the lineup in 2015-16. that means they were 10-6 without rose in the lineup. the bulls were 7-8 the last 15 games of rose's season, ostensibly when he was no longer seeing double.

new season, new team, new opportunity... nonetheless as i have been saying, he has a LOT to prove, nixluva.


You and Bonn seem to believe in this notion that how Rose played last year is really a true indication of what he's going to be in NY. I'm sure that Rose's poor play was a negative factor for the Bulls. Where I disagree with you and Bonn is that I don't expect that the Rose we'll see is going to be the same player that struggled last season. Missing time before the season dealing with his Facial Surgery and then dealing with the Mask negatively impacted Rose. You guys are practically dismissing the impact of that freak injury to his eye socket but i'm not. I'm saying that it was directly responsible for a lot of his struggles. He did improve and I expect that to continue. I expect Rose to come in better prepared, healthier and motivated.

I expect that Hornacek will find a way to merge the talents he has on this roster. There is considerable talent on this roster and some untapped talent that is still in development. JH has a style of play that makes the game easier for his players and helps to maximize their talent and make them more efficient. You put these players in more PnR and spread situations and they're gonna shine.



I think they are both pointing out actual data and results, you are countering by what you believe in, those two things are not the same.
You can of course believe Rose will get better but there is no data to support that. If you are going to use data to project how he will play the last year's data is the most relevant. Data and belief systems don't mesh.

Exactly. If a poster says he thinks next year will be the first in four years where a player will be healthy, there's really no way to argue with it. I don't ignore injury history. Players with recurrent injury problems tend to stay that way even if they have one off-season when they're healthy. That said, I've said I think there's a small chance that Rose and Noah stay healthy and have a better mindset (Rose) and the team does very well. What else do you want, Nix? You're not going to give up until I believe there's a high chance they'll do very well?

No it's not about me giving up. I'm just looking at the same data PLUS taking into account the factors that likely contributed to Rose starting off so poorly. The trajectory of the data shows that he was getting better and so even in my take on things it's still data supported. Rose was never a great shooter, but I believe he will get back to where he once was and HOPE even better in terms of efficiency and team play.

Just to compare Rose this year with his best years. Once you get past the poor early start he started to pick things up and come closer to how he played in his best years.


2015-16 eFG% TS%
November 37.3 40.7
December 43.7 46.1
January 48.8 52.6
February 45.8 50.8
March 49.3 51.1


2008-09 48.2 51.6
2009-10 49.5 53.2
2010-11 48.5 55.0
2011-12 47.3 53.2

Bonn's point was about factoring in Rose's injury history, which you seem to be glossing over.


Thank you. That's exactly the point.

Also, those 2015-16 #s are below average every month. He got better in the sense that he was less below average January through March. And at least part of that had to do with an unusually high 3 point % (38 vs. his career average of 30), which seems more like random fluctuation than a sudden huge improvement in his ability. He's going to have to a) stay healthy for the first time in a long time, b) have better shot selection, and c) hit at better rates from each spot on the floor. B means he has to take better shots and C means even if he shoots high percentage shots, he has to actually do a better job than he's been doing at converting them. It's A LOT of IFs. Then Noah has to stay healthy too and shoot better than last year.

I don't ignore that all of these ifs could happen. But from a statistical perspective, it's hard to say the odds are high.

For Rose things are gradually getting better. He's playing in more games each season and he didn't have any knee procedures last season. The Orbital Fracture was a freak accident and not a chronic thing. Rose was able to overcome the poor start and start to make progress. Come next season he will be even further distanced from his last knee surgery.

My points are that Rose was getting closer to his career best years at the end of the season in terms of his shooting. He's never been a great shooter. I'm not expecting Rose to suddenly, miraculously become a great shooter. Once again look at Rose in his best years and then look at where he was headed the last few months before he shut it down in April. At the end there he was approaching a level near what he had always been. The distance Rose would have to improve to get there is not as far as you are trying to make it sound.

I'm not measuring Rose against some mythical version of himself or the criteria you are making him have to meet in your mind. He played in 66 games and I would think the Knicks want to get him into the 70's and have him strong and in great shape come playoff time. The goal isn't to ride him like a pack mule. They checked out his knees and were extremely happy with what they saw. If things are healing properly that's all you can hope for. Get him on a very good conditioning program and have the Training and Medical staff put together a great regimen for him during the season. That's all you can do. None of this is so difficult that it shouldn't be possible to achieve.

Bonn1997
Posts: 58654
Alba Posts: 2
Joined: 2/2/2004
Member: #581
USA
7/17/2016  9:59 PM
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
GustavBahler wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
meloshouldgo wrote:
nixluva wrote:
dk7th wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
nixluva wrote:At the start of last season Rose was not at his best and struggling with the Mask after the Orbital Surgery. What is clear is that he did progress after time and removal of the Mask.

In 49 games without the mask, however, Rose averaged 17.3 points on 44.9 percent shooting from the field.

In 21 games played after the All-Star Break, he averaged 17.4 points on a slash line of .468/.375/.784.

http://dailyknicks.com/2016/07/17/knicks-derrick-roses-trainer-isnt-worried-about-his-health/

IMO with the extra time Rose has had in order to prepare his body and work on his skills, this is a very good situation for the Knicks. Rose has a very good opportunity to play a better brand of ball next season.

I'm still trying to understand why it is that people think the Knicks aren't that talented. Exactly how are teams going to be able to focus on stopping Rose, Melo and KP without leaving Lee or Noah open at some point? That's going to be the trick. As soon as you space the floor and put Rose in a 2 man game the advantage is all Knicks at that point. The defense will be put in a tough situation and most certainly will have to help off of Melo, KP or Lee. I'm not seeing a team that is going to be easy to defend at any point. Especially with Hornacek's aggressive style and approach to the game.

That article is completely disingenuous. The trainer's saying that he hasn't gotten a full offseason to work because of the playoffs but for 3 seasons, 2011/12 through 2013/14, he played in a combined 1 playoff game. The slight uptick in his shooting percentages is exclusively from shooting 37% from 3; something he's never come close to doing over the course of any season of his career. The only other stat that improved was his ORtg but that was offset by his DRtg getting worse by an equal amount.


He was better (but not good) from 2 point range in the 2nd half (.431 vs. .477). Average 2 point % is around 49 and good offenses are closer to 51 or 52% from 2 point range.

Even so, we're talking about 20 games, even less if you break it down by month. Looks like all of his improvement came during a 15 game stretch in March.


Yeah that's a fair comment. And we gave up a very productive center and a 1st round pick (Grant) to get him. We basically paid for his skill set and on the court performance from 2012 and earlier. It was a steep price.

I think the Rose move was well worth the cost and risk. I liked Lopez but he wasn't going to be the difference between winning and losing. He was replaceable. This team needed a push guard that can get to the rim.

The way Rose played in March is a good sign and nothing negative. There was a very distinct upward trajectory of his performance. He may not have reached the highest level possible for him and we need him to play well for an entire season but I think that's what he's working towards and the way he improved last year was a good indication that he is on the right track.

Overall this roster has been retooled with more speed and athletic ability. I think that will have a very positive impact, especially when married with Hornacek's uptempo, spread and aggressive schemes.

the bulls were 32-34 with rose in the lineup in 2015-16. that means they were 10-6 without rose in the lineup. the bulls were 7-8 the last 15 games of rose's season, ostensibly when he was no longer seeing double.

new season, new team, new opportunity... nonetheless as i have been saying, he has a LOT to prove, nixluva.


You and Bonn seem to believe in this notion that how Rose played last year is really a true indication of what he's going to be in NY. I'm sure that Rose's poor play was a negative factor for the Bulls. Where I disagree with you and Bonn is that I don't expect that the Rose we'll see is going to be the same player that struggled last season. Missing time before the season dealing with his Facial Surgery and then dealing with the Mask negatively impacted Rose. You guys are practically dismissing the impact of that freak injury to his eye socket but i'm not. I'm saying that it was directly responsible for a lot of his struggles. He did improve and I expect that to continue. I expect Rose to come in better prepared, healthier and motivated.

I expect that Hornacek will find a way to merge the talents he has on this roster. There is considerable talent on this roster and some untapped talent that is still in development. JH has a style of play that makes the game easier for his players and helps to maximize their talent and make them more efficient. You put these players in more PnR and spread situations and they're gonna shine.



I think they are both pointing out actual data and results, you are countering by what you believe in, those two things are not the same.
You can of course believe Rose will get better but there is no data to support that. If you are going to use data to project how he will play the last year's data is the most relevant. Data and belief systems don't mesh.

Exactly. If a poster says he thinks next year will be the first in four years where a player will be healthy, there's really no way to argue with it. I don't ignore injury history. Players with recurrent injury problems tend to stay that way even if they have one off-season when they're healthy. That said, I've said I think there's a small chance that Rose and Noah stay healthy and have a better mindset (Rose) and the team does very well. What else do you want, Nix? You're not going to give up until I believe there's a high chance they'll do very well?

No it's not about me giving up. I'm just looking at the same data PLUS taking into account the factors that likely contributed to Rose starting off so poorly. The trajectory of the data shows that he was getting better and so even in my take on things it's still data supported. Rose was never a great shooter, but I believe he will get back to where he once was and HOPE even better in terms of efficiency and team play.

Just to compare Rose this year with his best years. Once you get past the poor early start he started to pick things up and come closer to how he played in his best years.


2015-16 eFG% TS%
November 37.3 40.7
December 43.7 46.1
January 48.8 52.6
February 45.8 50.8
March 49.3 51.1


2008-09 48.2 51.6
2009-10 49.5 53.2
2010-11 48.5 55.0
2011-12 47.3 53.2

Bonn's point was about factoring in Rose's injury history, which you seem to be glossing over.


Thank you. That's exactly the point.

Also, those 2015-16 #s are below average every month. He got better in the sense that he was less below average January through March. And at least part of that had to do with an unusually high 3 point % (38 vs. his career average of 30), which seems more like random fluctuation than a sudden huge improvement in his ability. He's going to have to a) stay healthy for the first time in a long time, b) have better shot selection, and c) hit at better rates from each spot on the floor. B means he has to take better shots and C means even if he shoots high percentage shots, he has to actually do a better job than he's been doing at converting them. It's A LOT of IFs. Then Noah has to stay healthy too and shoot better than last year.

I don't ignore that all of these ifs could happen. But from a statistical perspective, it's hard to say the odds are high.

For Rose things are gradually getting better. He's playing in more games each season and he didn't have any knee procedures last season. The Orbital Fracture was a freak accident and not a chronic thing. Rose was able to overcome the poor start and start to make progress. Come next season he will be even further distanced from his last knee surgery.

My points are that Rose was getting closer to his career best years at the end of the season in terms of his shooting. He's never been a great shooter. I'm not expecting Rose to suddenly, miraculously become a great shooter. Once again look at Rose in his best years and then look at where he was headed the last few months before he shut it down in April. At the end there he was approaching a level near what he had always been. The distance Rose would have to improve to get there is not as far as you are trying to make it sound.

I'm not measuring Rose against some mythical version of himself or the criteria you are making him have to meet in your mind. He played in 66 games and I would think the Knicks want to get him into the 70's and have him strong and in great shape come playoff time. The goal isn't to ride him like a pack mule. They checked out his knees and were extremely happy with what they saw. If things are healing properly that's all you can hope for. Get him on a very good conditioning program and have the Training and Medical staff put together a great regimen for him during the season. That's all you can do. None of this is so difficult that it shouldn't be possible to achieve.


Well, was he really getting closer to his career years or were his numbers just inflated by a random streak of high 3 point shooting in about 20 games? We'll find out. I'm not putting up unreasonable criteria for him, though. If he has average NBA efficiency, I'll be thrilled. Someone with his skill set should be able to do way better than average but I don't think average is too much to ask for.
GustavBahler
Posts: 42864
Alba Posts: 15
Joined: 7/12/2010
Member: #3186

7/17/2016  10:09 PM
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
GustavBahler wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
meloshouldgo wrote:
nixluva wrote:
dk7th wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
nixluva wrote:At the start of last season Rose was not at his best and struggling with the Mask after the Orbital Surgery. What is clear is that he did progress after time and removal of the Mask.

In 49 games without the mask, however, Rose averaged 17.3 points on 44.9 percent shooting from the field.

In 21 games played after the All-Star Break, he averaged 17.4 points on a slash line of .468/.375/.784.

http://dailyknicks.com/2016/07/17/knicks-derrick-roses-trainer-isnt-worried-about-his-health/

IMO with the extra time Rose has had in order to prepare his body and work on his skills, this is a very good situation for the Knicks. Rose has a very good opportunity to play a better brand of ball next season.

I'm still trying to understand why it is that people think the Knicks aren't that talented. Exactly how are teams going to be able to focus on stopping Rose, Melo and KP without leaving Lee or Noah open at some point? That's going to be the trick. As soon as you space the floor and put Rose in a 2 man game the advantage is all Knicks at that point. The defense will be put in a tough situation and most certainly will have to help off of Melo, KP or Lee. I'm not seeing a team that is going to be easy to defend at any point. Especially with Hornacek's aggressive style and approach to the game.

That article is completely disingenuous. The trainer's saying that he hasn't gotten a full offseason to work because of the playoffs but for 3 seasons, 2011/12 through 2013/14, he played in a combined 1 playoff game. The slight uptick in his shooting percentages is exclusively from shooting 37% from 3; something he's never come close to doing over the course of any season of his career. The only other stat that improved was his ORtg but that was offset by his DRtg getting worse by an equal amount.


He was better (but not good) from 2 point range in the 2nd half (.431 vs. .477). Average 2 point % is around 49 and good offenses are closer to 51 or 52% from 2 point range.

Even so, we're talking about 20 games, even less if you break it down by month. Looks like all of his improvement came during a 15 game stretch in March.


Yeah that's a fair comment. And we gave up a very productive center and a 1st round pick (Grant) to get him. We basically paid for his skill set and on the court performance from 2012 and earlier. It was a steep price.

I think the Rose move was well worth the cost and risk. I liked Lopez but he wasn't going to be the difference between winning and losing. He was replaceable. This team needed a push guard that can get to the rim.

The way Rose played in March is a good sign and nothing negative. There was a very distinct upward trajectory of his performance. He may not have reached the highest level possible for him and we need him to play well for an entire season but I think that's what he's working towards and the way he improved last year was a good indication that he is on the right track.

Overall this roster has been retooled with more speed and athletic ability. I think that will have a very positive impact, especially when married with Hornacek's uptempo, spread and aggressive schemes.

the bulls were 32-34 with rose in the lineup in 2015-16. that means they were 10-6 without rose in the lineup. the bulls were 7-8 the last 15 games of rose's season, ostensibly when he was no longer seeing double.

new season, new team, new opportunity... nonetheless as i have been saying, he has a LOT to prove, nixluva.


You and Bonn seem to believe in this notion that how Rose played last year is really a true indication of what he's going to be in NY. I'm sure that Rose's poor play was a negative factor for the Bulls. Where I disagree with you and Bonn is that I don't expect that the Rose we'll see is going to be the same player that struggled last season. Missing time before the season dealing with his Facial Surgery and then dealing with the Mask negatively impacted Rose. You guys are practically dismissing the impact of that freak injury to his eye socket but i'm not. I'm saying that it was directly responsible for a lot of his struggles. He did improve and I expect that to continue. I expect Rose to come in better prepared, healthier and motivated.

I expect that Hornacek will find a way to merge the talents he has on this roster. There is considerable talent on this roster and some untapped talent that is still in development. JH has a style of play that makes the game easier for his players and helps to maximize their talent and make them more efficient. You put these players in more PnR and spread situations and they're gonna shine.



I think they are both pointing out actual data and results, you are countering by what you believe in, those two things are not the same.
You can of course believe Rose will get better but there is no data to support that. If you are going to use data to project how he will play the last year's data is the most relevant. Data and belief systems don't mesh.

Exactly. If a poster says he thinks next year will be the first in four years where a player will be healthy, there's really no way to argue with it. I don't ignore injury history. Players with recurrent injury problems tend to stay that way even if they have one off-season when they're healthy. That said, I've said I think there's a small chance that Rose and Noah stay healthy and have a better mindset (Rose) and the team does very well. What else do you want, Nix? You're not going to give up until I believe there's a high chance they'll do very well?

No it's not about me giving up. I'm just looking at the same data PLUS taking into account the factors that likely contributed to Rose starting off so poorly. The trajectory of the data shows that he was getting better and so even in my take on things it's still data supported. Rose was never a great shooter, but I believe he will get back to where he once was and HOPE even better in terms of efficiency and team play.

Just to compare Rose this year with his best years. Once you get past the poor early start he started to pick things up and come closer to how he played in his best years.


2015-16 eFG% TS%
November 37.3 40.7
December 43.7 46.1
January 48.8 52.6
February 45.8 50.8
March 49.3 51.1


2008-09 48.2 51.6
2009-10 49.5 53.2
2010-11 48.5 55.0
2011-12 47.3 53.2

Bonn's point was about factoring in Rose's injury history, which you seem to be glossing over.


Thank you. That's exactly the point.

Also, those 2015-16 #s are below average every month. He got better in the sense that he was less below average January through March. And at least part of that had to do with an unusually high 3 point % (38 vs. his career average of 30), which seems more like random fluctuation than a sudden huge improvement in his ability. He's going to have to a) stay healthy for the first time in a long time, b) have better shot selection, and c) hit at better rates from each spot on the floor. B means he has to take better shots and C means even if he shoots high percentage shots, he has to actually do a better job than he's been doing at converting them. It's A LOT of IFs. Then Noah has to stay healthy too and shoot better than last year.

I don't ignore that all of these ifs could happen. But from a statistical perspective, it's hard to say the odds are high.

For Rose things are gradually getting better. He's playing in more games each season and he didn't have any knee procedures last season. The Orbital Fracture was a freak accident and not a chronic thing. Rose was able to overcome the poor start and start to make progress. Come next season he will be even further distanced from his last knee surgery.

My points are that Rose was getting closer to his career best years at the end of the season in terms of his shooting. He's never been a great shooter. I'm not expecting Rose to suddenly, miraculously become a great shooter. Once again look at Rose in his best years and then look at where he was headed the last few months before he shut it down in April. At the end there he was approaching a level near what he had always been. The distance Rose would have to improve to get there is not as far as you are trying to make it sound.

I'm not measuring Rose against some mythical version of himself or the criteria you are making him have to meet in your mind. He played in 66 games and I would think the Knicks want to get him into the 70's and have him strong and in great shape come playoff time. The goal isn't to ride him like a pack mule. They checked out his knees and were extremely happy with what they saw. If things are healing properly that's all you can hope for. Get him on a very good conditioning program and have the Training and Medical staff put together a great regimen for him during the season. That's all you can do. None of this is so difficult that it shouldn't be possible to achieve.


Phil and the medical staff might be pleased with what they saw, but they are still taking a wait and see approach with this one year deal. Im very confident that Phil isnt even trying to guess what will happen with Rose next season. Doesn't mean we can't, just saying that there is no reliable predictor, no metric available that can reliably predict wether or not Rose can have close to the impact he did 4 years ago. Just have to hope for the best because its anybody's guess.

If we have to rely on Rose shooting a respectable pct from the field to contend, I believe we'll probably be in trouble. As I said upthread, Rose's biggest contribution IMO would be to once again be a threat at the rim. Rose still is fast, I would have more faith in him becoming a better finisher, than shooter where confidence plays more of a role.

nixluva
Posts: 56258
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 10/5/2004
Member: #758
USA
7/17/2016  10:37 PM
GustavBahler wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
GustavBahler wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
meloshouldgo wrote:
nixluva wrote:
dk7th wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
nixluva wrote:At the start of last season Rose was not at his best and struggling with the Mask after the Orbital Surgery. What is clear is that he did progress after time and removal of the Mask.

In 49 games without the mask, however, Rose averaged 17.3 points on 44.9 percent shooting from the field.

In 21 games played after the All-Star Break, he averaged 17.4 points on a slash line of .468/.375/.784.

http://dailyknicks.com/2016/07/17/knicks-derrick-roses-trainer-isnt-worried-about-his-health/

IMO with the extra time Rose has had in order to prepare his body and work on his skills, this is a very good situation for the Knicks. Rose has a very good opportunity to play a better brand of ball next season.

I'm still trying to understand why it is that people think the Knicks aren't that talented. Exactly how are teams going to be able to focus on stopping Rose, Melo and KP without leaving Lee or Noah open at some point? That's going to be the trick. As soon as you space the floor and put Rose in a 2 man game the advantage is all Knicks at that point. The defense will be put in a tough situation and most certainly will have to help off of Melo, KP or Lee. I'm not seeing a team that is going to be easy to defend at any point. Especially with Hornacek's aggressive style and approach to the game.

That article is completely disingenuous. The trainer's saying that he hasn't gotten a full offseason to work because of the playoffs but for 3 seasons, 2011/12 through 2013/14, he played in a combined 1 playoff game. The slight uptick in his shooting percentages is exclusively from shooting 37% from 3; something he's never come close to doing over the course of any season of his career. The only other stat that improved was his ORtg but that was offset by his DRtg getting worse by an equal amount.


He was better (but not good) from 2 point range in the 2nd half (.431 vs. .477). Average 2 point % is around 49 and good offenses are closer to 51 or 52% from 2 point range.

Even so, we're talking about 20 games, even less if you break it down by month. Looks like all of his improvement came during a 15 game stretch in March.


Yeah that's a fair comment. And we gave up a very productive center and a 1st round pick (Grant) to get him. We basically paid for his skill set and on the court performance from 2012 and earlier. It was a steep price.

I think the Rose move was well worth the cost and risk. I liked Lopez but he wasn't going to be the difference between winning and losing. He was replaceable. This team needed a push guard that can get to the rim.

The way Rose played in March is a good sign and nothing negative. There was a very distinct upward trajectory of his performance. He may not have reached the highest level possible for him and we need him to play well for an entire season but I think that's what he's working towards and the way he improved last year was a good indication that he is on the right track.

Overall this roster has been retooled with more speed and athletic ability. I think that will have a very positive impact, especially when married with Hornacek's uptempo, spread and aggressive schemes.

the bulls were 32-34 with rose in the lineup in 2015-16. that means they were 10-6 without rose in the lineup. the bulls were 7-8 the last 15 games of rose's season, ostensibly when he was no longer seeing double.

new season, new team, new opportunity... nonetheless as i have been saying, he has a LOT to prove, nixluva.


You and Bonn seem to believe in this notion that how Rose played last year is really a true indication of what he's going to be in NY. I'm sure that Rose's poor play was a negative factor for the Bulls. Where I disagree with you and Bonn is that I don't expect that the Rose we'll see is going to be the same player that struggled last season. Missing time before the season dealing with his Facial Surgery and then dealing with the Mask negatively impacted Rose. You guys are practically dismissing the impact of that freak injury to his eye socket but i'm not. I'm saying that it was directly responsible for a lot of his struggles. He did improve and I expect that to continue. I expect Rose to come in better prepared, healthier and motivated.

I expect that Hornacek will find a way to merge the talents he has on this roster. There is considerable talent on this roster and some untapped talent that is still in development. JH has a style of play that makes the game easier for his players and helps to maximize their talent and make them more efficient. You put these players in more PnR and spread situations and they're gonna shine.



I think they are both pointing out actual data and results, you are countering by what you believe in, those two things are not the same.
You can of course believe Rose will get better but there is no data to support that. If you are going to use data to project how he will play the last year's data is the most relevant. Data and belief systems don't mesh.

Exactly. If a poster says he thinks next year will be the first in four years where a player will be healthy, there's really no way to argue with it. I don't ignore injury history. Players with recurrent injury problems tend to stay that way even if they have one off-season when they're healthy. That said, I've said I think there's a small chance that Rose and Noah stay healthy and have a better mindset (Rose) and the team does very well. What else do you want, Nix? You're not going to give up until I believe there's a high chance they'll do very well?

No it's not about me giving up. I'm just looking at the same data PLUS taking into account the factors that likely contributed to Rose starting off so poorly. The trajectory of the data shows that he was getting better and so even in my take on things it's still data supported. Rose was never a great shooter, but I believe he will get back to where he once was and HOPE even better in terms of efficiency and team play.

Just to compare Rose this year with his best years. Once you get past the poor early start he started to pick things up and come closer to how he played in his best years.


2015-16 eFG% TS%
November 37.3 40.7
December 43.7 46.1
January 48.8 52.6
February 45.8 50.8
March 49.3 51.1


2008-09 48.2 51.6
2009-10 49.5 53.2
2010-11 48.5 55.0
2011-12 47.3 53.2

Bonn's point was about factoring in Rose's injury history, which you seem to be glossing over.


Thank you. That's exactly the point.

Also, those 2015-16 #s are below average every month. He got better in the sense that he was less below average January through March. And at least part of that had to do with an unusually high 3 point % (38 vs. his career average of 30), which seems more like random fluctuation than a sudden huge improvement in his ability. He's going to have to a) stay healthy for the first time in a long time, b) have better shot selection, and c) hit at better rates from each spot on the floor. B means he has to take better shots and C means even if he shoots high percentage shots, he has to actually do a better job than he's been doing at converting them. It's A LOT of IFs. Then Noah has to stay healthy too and shoot better than last year.

I don't ignore that all of these ifs could happen. But from a statistical perspective, it's hard to say the odds are high.

For Rose things are gradually getting better. He's playing in more games each season and he didn't have any knee procedures last season. The Orbital Fracture was a freak accident and not a chronic thing. Rose was able to overcome the poor start and start to make progress. Come next season he will be even further distanced from his last knee surgery.

My points are that Rose was getting closer to his career best years at the end of the season in terms of his shooting. He's never been a great shooter. I'm not expecting Rose to suddenly, miraculously become a great shooter. Once again look at Rose in his best years and then look at where he was headed the last few months before he shut it down in April. At the end there he was approaching a level near what he had always been. The distance Rose would have to improve to get there is not as far as you are trying to make it sound.

I'm not measuring Rose against some mythical version of himself or the criteria you are making him have to meet in your mind. He played in 66 games and I would think the Knicks want to get him into the 70's and have him strong and in great shape come playoff time. The goal isn't to ride him like a pack mule. They checked out his knees and were extremely happy with what they saw. If things are healing properly that's all you can hope for. Get him on a very good conditioning program and have the Training and Medical staff put together a great regimen for him during the season. That's all you can do. None of this is so difficult that it shouldn't be possible to achieve.


Phil and the medical staff might be pleased with what they saw, but they are still taking a wait and see approach with this one year deal. Im very confident that Phil isnt even trying to guess what will happen with Rose next season. Doesn't mean we can't, just saying that there is no reliable predictor, no metric available that can reliably predict wether or not Rose can have close to the impact he did 4 years ago. Just have to hope for the best because its anybody's guess.

If we have to rely on Rose shooting a respectable pct from the field to contend, I believe we'll probably be in trouble. As I said upthread, Rose's biggest contribution IMO would be to once again be a threat at the rim. Rose still is fast, I would have more faith in him becoming a better finisher, than shooter where confidence plays more of a role.

With all the issues Rose still drove to the rim about 9 times a game. He was fairly efficient on those looks according to NBA he was 51%. I think he can be even better in Hornacek's style of ball and with threats like Melo and KP on the floor.

In terms of Rose's impact I can confidently say it will be MASSIVELY greater than Jose's impact. For all the complaining about his lack of efficiency, there's simply no way to say that Rose won't be a problem out there on the floor with threats like Melo, KP and even Lee on the perimeter. If JH spreads them out behind the 3pt line teams will have a tough choice on how to help against Rose penetration. That much I do know!!!

VCoug
Posts: 24935
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 3/28/2007
Member: #1406

7/17/2016  11:01 PM
nixluva wrote:
GustavBahler wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
GustavBahler wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
meloshouldgo wrote:
nixluva wrote:
dk7th wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
nixluva wrote:At the start of last season Rose was not at his best and struggling with the Mask after the Orbital Surgery. What is clear is that he did progress after time and removal of the Mask.

In 49 games without the mask, however, Rose averaged 17.3 points on 44.9 percent shooting from the field.

In 21 games played after the All-Star Break, he averaged 17.4 points on a slash line of .468/.375/.784.

http://dailyknicks.com/2016/07/17/knicks-derrick-roses-trainer-isnt-worried-about-his-health/

IMO with the extra time Rose has had in order to prepare his body and work on his skills, this is a very good situation for the Knicks. Rose has a very good opportunity to play a better brand of ball next season.

I'm still trying to understand why it is that people think the Knicks aren't that talented. Exactly how are teams going to be able to focus on stopping Rose, Melo and KP without leaving Lee or Noah open at some point? That's going to be the trick. As soon as you space the floor and put Rose in a 2 man game the advantage is all Knicks at that point. The defense will be put in a tough situation and most certainly will have to help off of Melo, KP or Lee. I'm not seeing a team that is going to be easy to defend at any point. Especially with Hornacek's aggressive style and approach to the game.

That article is completely disingenuous. The trainer's saying that he hasn't gotten a full offseason to work because of the playoffs but for 3 seasons, 2011/12 through 2013/14, he played in a combined 1 playoff game. The slight uptick in his shooting percentages is exclusively from shooting 37% from 3; something he's never come close to doing over the course of any season of his career. The only other stat that improved was his ORtg but that was offset by his DRtg getting worse by an equal amount.


He was better (but not good) from 2 point range in the 2nd half (.431 vs. .477). Average 2 point % is around 49 and good offenses are closer to 51 or 52% from 2 point range.

Even so, we're talking about 20 games, even less if you break it down by month. Looks like all of his improvement came during a 15 game stretch in March.


Yeah that's a fair comment. And we gave up a very productive center and a 1st round pick (Grant) to get him. We basically paid for his skill set and on the court performance from 2012 and earlier. It was a steep price.

I think the Rose move was well worth the cost and risk. I liked Lopez but he wasn't going to be the difference between winning and losing. He was replaceable. This team needed a push guard that can get to the rim.

The way Rose played in March is a good sign and nothing negative. There was a very distinct upward trajectory of his performance. He may not have reached the highest level possible for him and we need him to play well for an entire season but I think that's what he's working towards and the way he improved last year was a good indication that he is on the right track.

Overall this roster has been retooled with more speed and athletic ability. I think that will have a very positive impact, especially when married with Hornacek's uptempo, spread and aggressive schemes.

the bulls were 32-34 with rose in the lineup in 2015-16. that means they were 10-6 without rose in the lineup. the bulls were 7-8 the last 15 games of rose's season, ostensibly when he was no longer seeing double.

new season, new team, new opportunity... nonetheless as i have been saying, he has a LOT to prove, nixluva.


You and Bonn seem to believe in this notion that how Rose played last year is really a true indication of what he's going to be in NY. I'm sure that Rose's poor play was a negative factor for the Bulls. Where I disagree with you and Bonn is that I don't expect that the Rose we'll see is going to be the same player that struggled last season. Missing time before the season dealing with his Facial Surgery and then dealing with the Mask negatively impacted Rose. You guys are practically dismissing the impact of that freak injury to his eye socket but i'm not. I'm saying that it was directly responsible for a lot of his struggles. He did improve and I expect that to continue. I expect Rose to come in better prepared, healthier and motivated.

I expect that Hornacek will find a way to merge the talents he has on this roster. There is considerable talent on this roster and some untapped talent that is still in development. JH has a style of play that makes the game easier for his players and helps to maximize their talent and make them more efficient. You put these players in more PnR and spread situations and they're gonna shine.



I think they are both pointing out actual data and results, you are countering by what you believe in, those two things are not the same.
You can of course believe Rose will get better but there is no data to support that. If you are going to use data to project how he will play the last year's data is the most relevant. Data and belief systems don't mesh.

Exactly. If a poster says he thinks next year will be the first in four years where a player will be healthy, there's really no way to argue with it. I don't ignore injury history. Players with recurrent injury problems tend to stay that way even if they have one off-season when they're healthy. That said, I've said I think there's a small chance that Rose and Noah stay healthy and have a better mindset (Rose) and the team does very well. What else do you want, Nix? You're not going to give up until I believe there's a high chance they'll do very well?

No it's not about me giving up. I'm just looking at the same data PLUS taking into account the factors that likely contributed to Rose starting off so poorly. The trajectory of the data shows that he was getting better and so even in my take on things it's still data supported. Rose was never a great shooter, but I believe he will get back to where he once was and HOPE even better in terms of efficiency and team play.

Just to compare Rose this year with his best years. Once you get past the poor early start he started to pick things up and come closer to how he played in his best years.


2015-16 eFG% TS%
November 37.3 40.7
December 43.7 46.1
January 48.8 52.6
February 45.8 50.8
March 49.3 51.1


2008-09 48.2 51.6
2009-10 49.5 53.2
2010-11 48.5 55.0
2011-12 47.3 53.2

Bonn's point was about factoring in Rose's injury history, which you seem to be glossing over.


Thank you. That's exactly the point.

Also, those 2015-16 #s are below average every month. He got better in the sense that he was less below average January through March. And at least part of that had to do with an unusually high 3 point % (38 vs. his career average of 30), which seems more like random fluctuation than a sudden huge improvement in his ability. He's going to have to a) stay healthy for the first time in a long time, b) have better shot selection, and c) hit at better rates from each spot on the floor. B means he has to take better shots and C means even if he shoots high percentage shots, he has to actually do a better job than he's been doing at converting them. It's A LOT of IFs. Then Noah has to stay healthy too and shoot better than last year.

I don't ignore that all of these ifs could happen. But from a statistical perspective, it's hard to say the odds are high.

For Rose things are gradually getting better. He's playing in more games each season and he didn't have any knee procedures last season. The Orbital Fracture was a freak accident and not a chronic thing. Rose was able to overcome the poor start and start to make progress. Come next season he will be even further distanced from his last knee surgery.

My points are that Rose was getting closer to his career best years at the end of the season in terms of his shooting. He's never been a great shooter. I'm not expecting Rose to suddenly, miraculously become a great shooter. Once again look at Rose in his best years and then look at where he was headed the last few months before he shut it down in April. At the end there he was approaching a level near what he had always been. The distance Rose would have to improve to get there is not as far as you are trying to make it sound.

I'm not measuring Rose against some mythical version of himself or the criteria you are making him have to meet in your mind. He played in 66 games and I would think the Knicks want to get him into the 70's and have him strong and in great shape come playoff time. The goal isn't to ride him like a pack mule. They checked out his knees and were extremely happy with what they saw. If things are healing properly that's all you can hope for. Get him on a very good conditioning program and have the Training and Medical staff put together a great regimen for him during the season. That's all you can do. None of this is so difficult that it shouldn't be possible to achieve.


Phil and the medical staff might be pleased with what they saw, but they are still taking a wait and see approach with this one year deal. Im very confident that Phil isnt even trying to guess what will happen with Rose next season. Doesn't mean we can't, just saying that there is no reliable predictor, no metric available that can reliably predict wether or not Rose can have close to the impact he did 4 years ago. Just have to hope for the best because its anybody's guess.

If we have to rely on Rose shooting a respectable pct from the field to contend, I believe we'll probably be in trouble. As I said upthread, Rose's biggest contribution IMO would be to once again be a threat at the rim. Rose still is fast, I would have more faith in him becoming a better finisher, than shooter where confidence plays more of a role.

With all the issues Rose still drove to the rim about 9 times a game. He was fairly efficient on those looks according to NBA he was 51%. I think he can be even better in Hornacek's style of ball and with threats like Melo and KP on the floor.

In terms of Rose's impact I can confidently say it will be MASSIVELY greater than Jose's impact. For all the complaining about his lack of efficiency, there's simply no way to say that Rose won't be a problem out there on the floor with threats like Melo, KP and even Lee on the perimeter. If JH spreads them out behind the 3pt line teams will have a tough choice on how to help against Rose penetration. That much I do know!!!

That's not fairly efficient. 51% on shots at the rim is a terrible number; about 10 points below league average.

Now the joy of my world is in Zion How beautiful if nothing more Than to wait at Zion's door I've never been in love like this before Now let me pray to keep you from The perils that will surely come
nixluva
Posts: 56258
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 10/5/2004
Member: #758
USA
7/17/2016  11:45 PM    LAST EDITED: 7/17/2016  11:46 PM
VCoug wrote:
nixluva wrote:
GustavBahler wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
GustavBahler wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
meloshouldgo wrote:
nixluva wrote:
dk7th wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
nixluva wrote:At the start of last season Rose was not at his best and struggling with the Mask after the Orbital Surgery. What is clear is that he did progress after time and removal of the Mask.

In 49 games without the mask, however, Rose averaged 17.3 points on 44.9 percent shooting from the field.

In 21 games played after the All-Star Break, he averaged 17.4 points on a slash line of .468/.375/.784.

http://dailyknicks.com/2016/07/17/knicks-derrick-roses-trainer-isnt-worried-about-his-health/

IMO with the extra time Rose has had in order to prepare his body and work on his skills, this is a very good situation for the Knicks. Rose has a very good opportunity to play a better brand of ball next season.

I'm still trying to understand why it is that people think the Knicks aren't that talented. Exactly how are teams going to be able to focus on stopping Rose, Melo and KP without leaving Lee or Noah open at some point? That's going to be the trick. As soon as you space the floor and put Rose in a 2 man game the advantage is all Knicks at that point. The defense will be put in a tough situation and most certainly will have to help off of Melo, KP or Lee. I'm not seeing a team that is going to be easy to defend at any point. Especially with Hornacek's aggressive style and approach to the game.

That article is completely disingenuous. The trainer's saying that he hasn't gotten a full offseason to work because of the playoffs but for 3 seasons, 2011/12 through 2013/14, he played in a combined 1 playoff game. The slight uptick in his shooting percentages is exclusively from shooting 37% from 3; something he's never come close to doing over the course of any season of his career. The only other stat that improved was his ORtg but that was offset by his DRtg getting worse by an equal amount.


He was better (but not good) from 2 point range in the 2nd half (.431 vs. .477). Average 2 point % is around 49 and good offenses are closer to 51 or 52% from 2 point range.

Even so, we're talking about 20 games, even less if you break it down by month. Looks like all of his improvement came during a 15 game stretch in March.


Yeah that's a fair comment. And we gave up a very productive center and a 1st round pick (Grant) to get him. We basically paid for his skill set and on the court performance from 2012 and earlier. It was a steep price.

I think the Rose move was well worth the cost and risk. I liked Lopez but he wasn't going to be the difference between winning and losing. He was replaceable. This team needed a push guard that can get to the rim.

The way Rose played in March is a good sign and nothing negative. There was a very distinct upward trajectory of his performance. He may not have reached the highest level possible for him and we need him to play well for an entire season but I think that's what he's working towards and the way he improved last year was a good indication that he is on the right track.

Overall this roster has been retooled with more speed and athletic ability. I think that will have a very positive impact, especially when married with Hornacek's uptempo, spread and aggressive schemes.

the bulls were 32-34 with rose in the lineup in 2015-16. that means they were 10-6 without rose in the lineup. the bulls were 7-8 the last 15 games of rose's season, ostensibly when he was no longer seeing double.

new season, new team, new opportunity... nonetheless as i have been saying, he has a LOT to prove, nixluva.


You and Bonn seem to believe in this notion that how Rose played last year is really a true indication of what he's going to be in NY. I'm sure that Rose's poor play was a negative factor for the Bulls. Where I disagree with you and Bonn is that I don't expect that the Rose we'll see is going to be the same player that struggled last season. Missing time before the season dealing with his Facial Surgery and then dealing with the Mask negatively impacted Rose. You guys are practically dismissing the impact of that freak injury to his eye socket but i'm not. I'm saying that it was directly responsible for a lot of his struggles. He did improve and I expect that to continue. I expect Rose to come in better prepared, healthier and motivated.

I expect that Hornacek will find a way to merge the talents he has on this roster. There is considerable talent on this roster and some untapped talent that is still in development. JH has a style of play that makes the game easier for his players and helps to maximize their talent and make them more efficient. You put these players in more PnR and spread situations and they're gonna shine.



I think they are both pointing out actual data and results, you are countering by what you believe in, those two things are not the same.
You can of course believe Rose will get better but there is no data to support that. If you are going to use data to project how he will play the last year's data is the most relevant. Data and belief systems don't mesh.

Exactly. If a poster says he thinks next year will be the first in four years where a player will be healthy, there's really no way to argue with it. I don't ignore injury history. Players with recurrent injury problems tend to stay that way even if they have one off-season when they're healthy. That said, I've said I think there's a small chance that Rose and Noah stay healthy and have a better mindset (Rose) and the team does very well. What else do you want, Nix? You're not going to give up until I believe there's a high chance they'll do very well?

No it's not about me giving up. I'm just looking at the same data PLUS taking into account the factors that likely contributed to Rose starting off so poorly. The trajectory of the data shows that he was getting better and so even in my take on things it's still data supported. Rose was never a great shooter, but I believe he will get back to where he once was and HOPE even better in terms of efficiency and team play.

Just to compare Rose this year with his best years. Once you get past the poor early start he started to pick things up and come closer to how he played in his best years.


2015-16 eFG% TS%
November 37.3 40.7
December 43.7 46.1
January 48.8 52.6
February 45.8 50.8
March 49.3 51.1


2008-09 48.2 51.6
2009-10 49.5 53.2
2010-11 48.5 55.0
2011-12 47.3 53.2

Bonn's point was about factoring in Rose's injury history, which you seem to be glossing over.


Thank you. That's exactly the point.

Also, those 2015-16 #s are below average every month. He got better in the sense that he was less below average January through March. And at least part of that had to do with an unusually high 3 point % (38 vs. his career average of 30), which seems more like random fluctuation than a sudden huge improvement in his ability. He's going to have to a) stay healthy for the first time in a long time, b) have better shot selection, and c) hit at better rates from each spot on the floor. B means he has to take better shots and C means even if he shoots high percentage shots, he has to actually do a better job than he's been doing at converting them. It's A LOT of IFs. Then Noah has to stay healthy too and shoot better than last year.

I don't ignore that all of these ifs could happen. But from a statistical perspective, it's hard to say the odds are high.

For Rose things are gradually getting better. He's playing in more games each season and he didn't have any knee procedures last season. The Orbital Fracture was a freak accident and not a chronic thing. Rose was able to overcome the poor start and start to make progress. Come next season he will be even further distanced from his last knee surgery.

My points are that Rose was getting closer to his career best years at the end of the season in terms of his shooting. He's never been a great shooter. I'm not expecting Rose to suddenly, miraculously become a great shooter. Once again look at Rose in his best years and then look at where he was headed the last few months before he shut it down in April. At the end there he was approaching a level near what he had always been. The distance Rose would have to improve to get there is not as far as you are trying to make it sound.

I'm not measuring Rose against some mythical version of himself or the criteria you are making him have to meet in your mind. He played in 66 games and I would think the Knicks want to get him into the 70's and have him strong and in great shape come playoff time. The goal isn't to ride him like a pack mule. They checked out his knees and were extremely happy with what they saw. If things are healing properly that's all you can hope for. Get him on a very good conditioning program and have the Training and Medical staff put together a great regimen for him during the season. That's all you can do. None of this is so difficult that it shouldn't be possible to achieve.


Phil and the medical staff might be pleased with what they saw, but they are still taking a wait and see approach with this one year deal. Im very confident that Phil isnt even trying to guess what will happen with Rose next season. Doesn't mean we can't, just saying that there is no reliable predictor, no metric available that can reliably predict wether or not Rose can have close to the impact he did 4 years ago. Just have to hope for the best because its anybody's guess.

If we have to rely on Rose shooting a respectable pct from the field to contend, I believe we'll probably be in trouble. As I said upthread, Rose's biggest contribution IMO would be to once again be a threat at the rim. Rose still is fast, I would have more faith in him becoming a better finisher, than shooter where confidence plays more of a role.

With all the issues Rose still drove to the rim about 9 times a game. He was fairly efficient on those looks according to NBA he was 51%. I think he can be even better in Hornacek's style of ball and with threats like Melo and KP on the floor.

In terms of Rose's impact I can confidently say it will be MASSIVELY greater than Jose's impact. For all the complaining about his lack of efficiency, there's simply no way to say that Rose won't be a problem out there on the floor with threats like Melo, KP and even Lee on the perimeter. If JH spreads them out behind the 3pt line teams will have a tough choice on how to help against Rose penetration. That much I do know!!!

That's not fairly efficient. 51% on shots at the rim is a terrible number; about 10 points below league average.

You know that's the reason why I keep posting. It's all too easy to just make statements without really putting them in context. Just look at the other top Guards in the league in terms of drives per game. Look at the FG% column for all of these guards.


Player Team GP W L MIN DRIVES FGM FGA FG% FTM FTA FT% PTS PTS% PASS PASS% AST AST% TO TO% PF PF%
Isaiah Thomas BOS 81 47 34 32.2 11.7 2.6 5.8 45.4 2.4 2.9 83.7 7.6 65.2 3.8 32.7 1.0 8.9 0.7 5.9 1.9 15.8
DeMar DeRozan TOR 77 52 25 35.9 11.6 2.9 5.8 50.6 2.8 3.4 83.0 8.7 74.4 3.7 31.4 0.9 8.1 0.5 4.0 2.2 18.5
Jeff Teague ATL 79 47 32 28.5 11.1 2.4 5.2 45.7 1.7 2.0 82.9 6.4 57.5 4.0 36.3 0.9 8.3 0.8 7.0 1.2 11.1
Ish Smith PHI 77 16 61 29.1 11.1 2.2 5.0 44.6 0.6 1.0 63.5 5.1 45.6 5.1 45.6 1.4 12.6 0.6 5.1 0.7 6.3
Reggie Jackson DET 79 43 36 30.7 10.6 3.0 6.1 49.0 1.5 1.7 86.9 7.5 70.0 2.9 27.3 0.9 8.2 0.7 6.9 1.1 10.5
Russell Westbrook OKC 80 55 25 34.4 10.1 2.4 4.8 50.7 2.3 2.8 82.1 7.1 70.7 3.2 31.5 1.1 11.0 0.8 7.6 1.7 17.1
Rajon Rondo SAC 71 29 42 35.4 9.9 2.1 4.1 50.7 0.4 0.7 54.2 4.5 45.7 4.3 43.0 1.4 14.1 1.0 10.1 0.5 4.8
Jrue Holiday NOP 65 27 38 28.2 9.8 2.7 5.3 50.4 1.6 1.9 86.1 6.9 71.0 3.0 30.7 0.8 8.7 0.5 4.9 1.2 12.3
Damian Lillard POR 75 40 35 35.7 9.8 2.7 5.5 48.2 2.5 2.7 91.1 7.8 79.4 2.4 24.3 0.8 7.9 0.5 5.4 1.6 16.4
Kyle Lowry TOR 76 53 23 36.9 9.5 1.9 4.4 44.3 1.5 1.8 84.2 5.4 56.4 3.4 35.3 1.1 11.5 0.6 6.8 1.2 12.3
Goran Dragic MIA 72 44 28 32.8 9.4 1.8 3.4 52.8 0.7 1.0 70.4 4.4 46.2 4.6 48.8 1.3 14.1 0.8 8.1 0.6 6.8
James Harden HOU 82 41 41 38.1 9.4 2.1 4.3 49.6 2.9 3.4 86.0 7.2 76.6 2.5 26.5 0.9 9.2 0.9 9.4 2.1 22.2
Kyrie Irving CLE 53 37 16 31.5 8.9 2.7 5.3 50.7 1.1 1.3 81.2 6.5 72.3 2.5 28.3 0.6 7.2 0.4 4.4 0.9 9.9
Derrick Rose CHI 66 32 34 31.8 8.9 2.8 5.5 51.0 1.3 1.7 76.1 6.9 76.9 2.1 23.3 0.6 6.5 0.6 7.1 1.0 11.5
Dwyane Wade MIA 74 43 31 30.5 8.5 2.2 4.4 50.5 1.4 1.9 73.9 5.8 68.1 2.7 32.2 1.0 11.7 0.5 5.4 1.1 12.4
Tony Parker SAS 72 59 13 27.5 8.2 1.8 3.5 51.0 0.8 1.0 75.3 4.4 53.1 3.5 42.2 0.8 9.9 0.6 7.4 0.7 7.9
John Wall WAS 77 37 40 36.2 8.0 1.6 3.2 50.4 1.3 1.6 80.0 4.5 55.9 3.3 41.0 0.9 11.6 0.8 9.5 1.2 14.5

http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/player/drives/?sort=DRIVES&dir=1&CF=GP*GE*50&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerPosition=G

GustavBahler
Posts: 42864
Alba Posts: 15
Joined: 7/12/2010
Member: #3186

7/18/2016  12:14 AM
nixluva wrote:
VCoug wrote:
nixluva wrote:
GustavBahler wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
GustavBahler wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
meloshouldgo wrote:
nixluva wrote:
dk7th wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
VCoug wrote:
nixluva wrote:At the start of last season Rose was not at his best and struggling with the Mask after the Orbital Surgery. What is clear is that he did progress after time and removal of the Mask.

In 49 games without the mask, however, Rose averaged 17.3 points on 44.9 percent shooting from the field.

In 21 games played after the All-Star Break, he averaged 17.4 points on a slash line of .468/.375/.784.

http://dailyknicks.com/2016/07/17/knicks-derrick-roses-trainer-isnt-worried-about-his-health/

IMO with the extra time Rose has had in order to prepare his body and work on his skills, this is a very good situation for the Knicks. Rose has a very good opportunity to play a better brand of ball next season.

I'm still trying to understand why it is that people think the Knicks aren't that talented. Exactly how are teams going to be able to focus on stopping Rose, Melo and KP without leaving Lee or Noah open at some point? That's going to be the trick. As soon as you space the floor and put Rose in a 2 man game the advantage is all Knicks at that point. The defense will be put in a tough situation and most certainly will have to help off of Melo, KP or Lee. I'm not seeing a team that is going to be easy to defend at any point. Especially with Hornacek's aggressive style and approach to the game.

That article is completely disingenuous. The trainer's saying that he hasn't gotten a full offseason to work because of the playoffs but for 3 seasons, 2011/12 through 2013/14, he played in a combined 1 playoff game. The slight uptick in his shooting percentages is exclusively from shooting 37% from 3; something he's never come close to doing over the course of any season of his career. The only other stat that improved was his ORtg but that was offset by his DRtg getting worse by an equal amount.


He was better (but not good) from 2 point range in the 2nd half (.431 vs. .477). Average 2 point % is around 49 and good offenses are closer to 51 or 52% from 2 point range.

Even so, we're talking about 20 games, even less if you break it down by month. Looks like all of his improvement came during a 15 game stretch in March.


Yeah that's a fair comment. And we gave up a very productive center and a 1st round pick (Grant) to get him. We basically paid for his skill set and on the court performance from 2012 and earlier. It was a steep price.

I think the Rose move was well worth the cost and risk. I liked Lopez but he wasn't going to be the difference between winning and losing. He was replaceable. This team needed a push guard that can get to the rim.

The way Rose played in March is a good sign and nothing negative. There was a very distinct upward trajectory of his performance. He may not have reached the highest level possible for him and we need him to play well for an entire season but I think that's what he's working towards and the way he improved last year was a good indication that he is on the right track.

Overall this roster has been retooled with more speed and athletic ability. I think that will have a very positive impact, especially when married with Hornacek's uptempo, spread and aggressive schemes.

the bulls were 32-34 with rose in the lineup in 2015-16. that means they were 10-6 without rose in the lineup. the bulls were 7-8 the last 15 games of rose's season, ostensibly when he was no longer seeing double.

new season, new team, new opportunity... nonetheless as i have been saying, he has a LOT to prove, nixluva.


You and Bonn seem to believe in this notion that how Rose played last year is really a true indication of what he's going to be in NY. I'm sure that Rose's poor play was a negative factor for the Bulls. Where I disagree with you and Bonn is that I don't expect that the Rose we'll see is going to be the same player that struggled last season. Missing time before the season dealing with his Facial Surgery and then dealing with the Mask negatively impacted Rose. You guys are practically dismissing the impact of that freak injury to his eye socket but i'm not. I'm saying that it was directly responsible for a lot of his struggles. He did improve and I expect that to continue. I expect Rose to come in better prepared, healthier and motivated.

I expect that Hornacek will find a way to merge the talents he has on this roster. There is considerable talent on this roster and some untapped talent that is still in development. JH has a style of play that makes the game easier for his players and helps to maximize their talent and make them more efficient. You put these players in more PnR and spread situations and they're gonna shine.



I think they are both pointing out actual data and results, you are countering by what you believe in, those two things are not the same.
You can of course believe Rose will get better but there is no data to support that. If you are going to use data to project how he will play the last year's data is the most relevant. Data and belief systems don't mesh.

Exactly. If a poster says he thinks next year will be the first in four years where a player will be healthy, there's really no way to argue with it. I don't ignore injury history. Players with recurrent injury problems tend to stay that way even if they have one off-season when they're healthy. That said, I've said I think there's a small chance that Rose and Noah stay healthy and have a better mindset (Rose) and the team does very well. What else do you want, Nix? You're not going to give up until I believe there's a high chance they'll do very well?

No it's not about me giving up. I'm just looking at the same data PLUS taking into account the factors that likely contributed to Rose starting off so poorly. The trajectory of the data shows that he was getting better and so even in my take on things it's still data supported. Rose was never a great shooter, but I believe he will get back to where he once was and HOPE even better in terms of efficiency and team play.

Just to compare Rose this year with his best years. Once you get past the poor early start he started to pick things up and come closer to how he played in his best years.


2015-16 eFG% TS%
November 37.3 40.7
December 43.7 46.1
January 48.8 52.6
February 45.8 50.8
March 49.3 51.1


2008-09 48.2 51.6
2009-10 49.5 53.2
2010-11 48.5 55.0
2011-12 47.3 53.2

Bonn's point was about factoring in Rose's injury history, which you seem to be glossing over.


Thank you. That's exactly the point.

Also, those 2015-16 #s are below average every month. He got better in the sense that he was less below average January through March. And at least part of that had to do with an unusually high 3 point % (38 vs. his career average of 30), which seems more like random fluctuation than a sudden huge improvement in his ability. He's going to have to a) stay healthy for the first time in a long time, b) have better shot selection, and c) hit at better rates from each spot on the floor. B means he has to take better shots and C means even if he shoots high percentage shots, he has to actually do a better job than he's been doing at converting them. It's A LOT of IFs. Then Noah has to stay healthy too and shoot better than last year.

I don't ignore that all of these ifs could happen. But from a statistical perspective, it's hard to say the odds are high.

For Rose things are gradually getting better. He's playing in more games each season and he didn't have any knee procedures last season. The Orbital Fracture was a freak accident and not a chronic thing. Rose was able to overcome the poor start and start to make progress. Come next season he will be even further distanced from his last knee surgery.

My points are that Rose was getting closer to his career best years at the end of the season in terms of his shooting. He's never been a great shooter. I'm not expecting Rose to suddenly, miraculously become a great shooter. Once again look at Rose in his best years and then look at where he was headed the last few months before he shut it down in April. At the end there he was approaching a level near what he had always been. The distance Rose would have to improve to get there is not as far as you are trying to make it sound.

I'm not measuring Rose against some mythical version of himself or the criteria you are making him have to meet in your mind. He played in 66 games and I would think the Knicks want to get him into the 70's and have him strong and in great shape come playoff time. The goal isn't to ride him like a pack mule. They checked out his knees and were extremely happy with what they saw. If things are healing properly that's all you can hope for. Get him on a very good conditioning program and have the Training and Medical staff put together a great regimen for him during the season. That's all you can do. None of this is so difficult that it shouldn't be possible to achieve.


Phil and the medical staff might be pleased with what they saw, but they are still taking a wait and see approach with this one year deal. Im very confident that Phil isnt even trying to guess what will happen with Rose next season. Doesn't mean we can't, just saying that there is no reliable predictor, no metric available that can reliably predict wether or not Rose can have close to the impact he did 4 years ago. Just have to hope for the best because its anybody's guess.

If we have to rely on Rose shooting a respectable pct from the field to contend, I believe we'll probably be in trouble. As I said upthread, Rose's biggest contribution IMO would be to once again be a threat at the rim. Rose still is fast, I would have more faith in him becoming a better finisher, than shooter where confidence plays more of a role.

With all the issues Rose still drove to the rim about 9 times a game. He was fairly efficient on those looks according to NBA he was 51%. I think he can be even better in Hornacek's style of ball and with threats like Melo and KP on the floor.

In terms of Rose's impact I can confidently say it will be MASSIVELY greater than Jose's impact. For all the complaining about his lack of efficiency, there's simply no way to say that Rose won't be a problem out there on the floor with threats like Melo, KP and even Lee on the perimeter. If JH spreads them out behind the 3pt line teams will have a tough choice on how to help against Rose penetration. That much I do know!!!

That's not fairly efficient. 51% on shots at the rim is a terrible number; about 10 points below league average.

You know that's the reason why I keep posting. It's all too easy to just make statements without really putting them in context. Just look at the other top Guards in the league in terms of drives per game. Look at the FG% column for all of these guards.


http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/player/drives/?sort=DRIVES&dir=1&CF=GP*GE*50&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerPosition=G

Correct me if Im wrong but werent Rose's numbers mostly from a strong second half? Its encouraging of course, but Rose has been at the bottom of the list in finishing at the rim, post injury.

I want to see Rose going wire to wire, playing well with no major or nagging issues before I start getting too enthusiastic. Something he hasn't done in 4 years. Its why I put "if healthy" next to my predictions among others.

Hang your ass out thread

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