Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:

fishmike wrote:

crzymdups wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:Bonn, would you factor in the length of their contracts in your projections? So even if they are a wash Grant will be on a rookie deal 3 more years where Hardaway Jr will be a rfa next summer.

Yes, I would but we already lost one of those rookie contract years with Grant. If TH JR stays the same next year, he will have given 2 years of play where he outplayed his contract for Atlanta. To beat that, Grant is going to have to be a lot better starting immediately. You're right though that if they end up being comparably effective players, we will have won the trade.

This is the problem with analytics - it ignores the human elements like personality and team fit. Grant is a much better fit for this team in many ways that WS/48 doesn't reflect.

knowing JH's heavy guard sets and multitudes of P&R sets if you arent excited that Grant is a Knick you really just arent paying attention. Not only does Grant pop this year but I bet he pops quickly. Like training camp quickly. Easy political pick also.. starting at G-> Phil's draft day swing. The question is who plays off him. Do we sign someone? Trade? Draft? Jose ???

JH is a really good fit for what we currently have. Slashing guards and every big can hit a jumper. I fully expect to see our guards simply play better.

so do you think that Grant pops despite not developing a consistent (enough) jumper? Or are you pretty certain that he develops into a decent shooter?

His jumper looks fine to me!!! What we saw late in the year was developing long before he got to start. Jerian worked on his shot and got better. I expect more improvement next year.

How late in the year are you talking about? It's not obvious to me from his game log unless you're just talking about the last 4 games of the season.

February, March, & April his combined TS% is pretty good

You're right actually. I misread the months when I looked at his game log. It was off-the-charts bad pre-all-star and pretty good post-all-star break. The pre-all-star is twice as big a sample but the post-all-star is more recent. So I guess that gives some reassurance or at least reason for hope.
It looks like his TS% post-all-star was .551. (TH JR's was .607 but he's also 2 seasons ahead of Grant.)

I'm glad that you got to see what I was talking about. Jerian was making improvement during the season even before he got the starting gig. I really do think he can continue to improve and especially if JH gets to put him in a style and role that maximizes his strengths. His confidence was much higher at the close of the season and that should really help going into next year.

SupremeCommander wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

SupremeCommander wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:Bonn, would you factor in the length of their contracts in your projections? So even if they are a wash Grant will be on a rookie deal 3 more years where Hardaway Jr will be a rfa next summer.

Yes, I would but we already lost one of those rookie contract years with Grant. If TH JR stays the same next year, he will have given 2 years of play where he outplayed his contract for Atlanta. To beat that, Grant is going to have to be a lot better starting immediately. You're right though that if they end up being comparably effective players, we will have won the trade.

I don't think comparing year one to year three is fair at all. Good players improve dramatically from their freshman season to their sophomore and then to their third... your analysis doesn't allow Grant that chance and ignores the fact that Hardaway Jr hasn't improved as a player. His rookie season was his best one without a doubt. His career PER went from 12.7 to 12.1 to 11.7. Bleh

I was doing my best to take into account year of play and indicated the huge amount of uncertainty. The average player with a WS 48 of .030 (Grant) in year 1 definitely does not reach .105 (TH JR's) by year 3. I'm sure a small minority do though. It's a misreading of my view to say I don't allow for the possibility Grant will improve at a fast rate.

I don't believe so at all -- you're comparing apples to oranges

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:

fishmike wrote:

crzymdups wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:Bonn, would you factor in the length of their contracts in your projections? So even if they are a wash Grant will be on a rookie deal 3 more years where Hardaway Jr will be a rfa next summer.

Yes, I would but we already lost one of those rookie contract years with Grant. If TH JR stays the same next year, he will have given 2 years of play where he outplayed his contract for Atlanta. To beat that, Grant is going to have to be a lot better starting immediately. You're right though that if they end up being comparably effective players, we will have won the trade.

This is the problem with analytics - it ignores the human elements like personality and team fit. Grant is a much better fit for this team in many ways that WS/48 doesn't reflect.

knowing JH's heavy guard sets and multitudes of P&R sets if you arent excited that Grant is a Knick you really just arent paying attention. Not only does Grant pop this year but I bet he pops quickly. Like training camp quickly. Easy political pick also.. starting at G-> Phil's draft day swing. The question is who plays off him. Do we sign someone? Trade? Draft? Jose ???

JH is a really good fit for what we currently have. Slashing guards and every big can hit a jumper. I fully expect to see our guards simply play better.

so do you think that Grant pops despite not developing a consistent (enough) jumper? Or are you pretty certain that he develops into a decent shooter?

His jumper looks fine to me!!! What we saw late in the year was developing long before he got to start. Jerian worked on his shot and got better. I expect more improvement next year.

How late in the year are you talking about? It's not obvious to me from his game log unless you're just talking about the last 4 games of the season.

February, March, & April his combined TS% is pretty good

You're right actually. I misread the months when I looked at his game log. It was off-the-charts bad pre-all-star and pretty good post-all-star break. The pre-all-star is twice as big a sample but the post-all-star is more recent. So I guess that gives some reassurance or at least reason for hope.
It looks like his TS% post-all-star was .551. (TH JR's was .607 but he's also 2 seasons ahead of Grant.)

I'm glad that you got to see what I was talking about. Jerian was making improvement during the season even before he got the starting gig. I really do think he can continue to improve and especially if JH gets to put him in a style and role that maximizes his strengths. His confidence was much higher at the close of the season and that should really help going into next year.

It could be random fluctuation in a small sample (150 shots) or he might be meaningfully improving. I hope it's the latter. If that is the case, then I was too hard on him here. We'll find out in time.