Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

TripleThreat wrote:Melo and Zen Master have four years left. With virtually nothing on the roster left that anyone else will want in trade. If said draft pick hope develops ( even at the most historic rates possible), he will likely do so when Melo and Zen Master and whatever free agent pick ups this offseason are at the end of their deals.

NOTHING ANYONE CAN SAY HERE WILL RESOLVE THIS TIMELINE CONFLICT. NOTHING. ABSOLUTE NOTHING.

BULLISH! I actually respect your knowledge and great posting but lately you've been off your freakin rocker.

I notice you didn't actually respond to my post but instead went right back to this diatribe of negativity. You've come up with this narrative of utter hopelessness and call it some kind of irrefutable truth. The fact is that you are making up this so called Timeline and you are trying to pass it off as some kind of vetted method when it's all in your head. Regardless of how long Phil or Melo are still here the draft pick could still be here to form part of the teams future along with other young players we're adding now and in the future. He's been adding younger players since he's been here and that trend will likely continue.

Yes So far we don't have a pick in 2016 but we actually have picks in every year after that.

Knicks 1st Round Picks                    Knicks 2nd Round Picks
2015 - Own                                2015 - To HOU
2016 - More favorable of NYK and DEN      2016 - To HOU (via POR to SAC 
to DEN then other to TOR                  then removal of protection from NYK)
(via DEN swap for NYK)
2017 - Own                                2017 second round draft pick from Houston
2018 - Own                                2018 - Less favorable of NYK and LAC 
                                          then other to PHL (via PHL swap of LAC for NYK)
2019 - Own                                2019 second round draft pick from Cleveland
                                          2019 second round draft pick from Houston
2020 - Own                                2020 - Own
2021 - Own                                2021 - Own

The idea of having Melo here now is to bridge the gap between now and when our younger players fully develop. It makes sense to have some vets who can actually produce now. In terms of Free Agents as I posted earlier teams can win with smart additions rather than assuming you have to have a bunch of superstars in order to win. This is why I posted the Hawks Roster which at least shows that you can put together a roster intelligently and get a team that is greater than the sum of it's parts. Their roster proves that it is in fact possible for the Knicks to construct a competitive team minus top tier players all over the place. They have a bunch of smart and efficient players that are team oriented.

Rk Player	    Age	G  GS	MP	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1  Paul Millsap	    29	65 65	33.0	8.0	3.0	1.7	0.9	2.4	2.8	16.9
2  Kyle Korver	    33	64 64	32.7	4.1	2.5	0.7	0.5	1.5	1.9	12.4
3  DeMarre Carroll  28	58 57	31.4	5.3	1.6	1.3	0.2	0.9	2.3	12.1
4  Jeff Teague	    26	62 61	31.0	2.4	7.1	1.7	0.5	2.8	2.0	16.6
5  Al Horford	    28	64 64	30.8	7.4	3.3	0.9	1.3	1.3	1.6	15.2
6  Dennis Schroder  21	66 7	19.4	2.0	4.0	0.7	0.0	1.9	1.7	9.4
7  Thabo Sefolosha  30	45 7	19.0	4.3	1.5	1.0	0.5	0.7	1.3	5.1
8  Kent Bazemore    25	61 7	17.1	2.9	1.0	0.7	0.5	1.0	1.7	5.0
9  Pero Antic	    32	52 3	16.3	3.0	0.8	0.2	0.3	0.8	2.1	5.3
10 Mike Scott	    26	62 0	15.8	2.7	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.5	1.1	7.5
11 Shelvin Mack	    24	42 0	14.2	1.3	2.5	0.5	0.0	0.9	0.6	5.3
12 Elton Brand	    35	26 2	13.8	3.2	0.6	0.5	0.8	0.4	1.7	2.7
13 John Jenkins	    23	17 1	11.0	1.7	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.4	0.6	4.9
14 Mike Muscala	    23	26 2	9.1	2.4	0.3	0.2	0.5	0.3	0.9	3.6
15 Adreian Payne    23	3  0	6.3	1.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	1.3	1.7

Now i'm not saying that the Knicks will be as good as the Hawks are now next season. That's not the point. It is however, very possible to eventually have that kind of success if they put this team together intelligently.

You don't appear to be contradicting anything he said. You talk often about the fact that it's "very possible" or "not impossible" to build a "successful" team but that doesn't mean anything. Impossible doesn't apply in basketball. If you make as many assumptions as you want about signings and draft picks working out, "succeeding" is always possible.
Can you give some examples of teams that were in situations where eventual success was impossible?

This is what he was referring to:

For 40 percent of Phil Jackson's contract timeline, the Knicks don't own a draft pick.

Also, someone needs to change Phil Jackson's wiki. Apparently he turned 70 in March of 2014.

OK - my comments about "possibility" and "success" apply to most of what he writes though

The Draft component was a huge aspect of my point, but going further most teams are really built with 6 starting caliber players as their main load carriers. This means that in truth what we're looking at this summer is to try and build a starting 5 and have a 6th man who can be dependable. In my use of the Hawks as an example it's clear that it's not as daunting a scenario as some are trying to make it out to be. There is a greater chance of being able to put together a quality team than there is of failure IMO. It's not an impossible task to find some Millsap, Carroll, Schroder and Sefolosha level players!!!

Holy cow! You're going out on the line here. At the moment, I don't think we have any healthy players who are NBA starters. If Melo comes back, healthy, we still need to add 5 to get 6 starting caliber players. I'd say the odds against that happening in one off-season are 10 to 1 generously and 1000 to 1 pessimistically. How often does a team get an entire starting lineup in one off-season?
I could make the question even more difficult and say, how often does that happen for GM's whose plan A was a historic failure, but we'll keep it simpler and stick with the previous question.

There are varying levels of starting caliber players. Besides which it doesn't have happen all at once. That's the goal but we can't feel like it's a complete failure if we end up with 3 free agents and have to rely on our draft pick and current players like Shved, Galloway and Bargs to comprise much of the rotation. We may not feel these players are any good because they're on the Knicks but they aren't as bad as we make them out to be. Remember that Galloway is a rookie and still improving.

PLAYER	                GP	GS	MIN	PPG	OFFR	DEFR	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	TPG	FPG	A/TO	PER
Carmelo Anthony, SF	40	40	35.7	24.2	1.8	4.8	6.6	3.1	1.00	0.43	2.2	2.2	1.4	21.8
Alexey Shved, PG†	15	8	27.1	15.1	0.9	3.8	4.7	3.7	1.00	0.33	1.5	1.6	2.4	21.3
Andrea Bargnani, C	20	13	26.6	14.4	1.1	3.3	4.4	1.6	0.10	0.80	1.4	1.9	1.1	16.7
Tim Hardaway Jr., SG	63	26	23.5	11.3	0.2	2.1	2.2	1.7	0.29	0.21	1.1	1.7	1.6	12.3
Langston Galloway, PG	32	28	31.0	11.1	0.9	3.4	4.3	3.0	1.03	0.28	1.3	2.9	2.3	12.2
Jose Calderon, PG	42	42	30.2	9.1	0.5	2.5	3.0	4.7	0.74	0.00	1.8	1.8	2.6	11.4
Lance Thomas, SF†	27	11	23.9	7.8	0.9	2.3	3.2	1.1	0.63	0.22	1.3	1.4	0.8	8.4
Jason Smith, PF	        69	28	21.2	7.6	1.2	2.6	3.7	1.6	0.36	0.43	1.1	2.5	1.4	11.6
Lou Amundson, PF†	28	26	21.7	6.7	2.5	3.6	6.1	1.8	0.50	1.25	1.1	3.0	1.5	14.6
Shane Larkin, PG	63	14	22.7	5.8	0.4	1.7	2.1	2.5	1.21	0.13	1.0	1.9	2.6	11.0
Quincy Acy, SF	        55	21	19.1	5.4	1.2	3.3	4.5	1.0	0.38	0.31	0.9	2.2	1.1	11.0
Cole Aldrich, C	        51	12	16.1	5.2	1.7	3.7	5.4	1.2	0.61	1.06	0.9	2.0	1.3	17.1
Cleanthony Early, SF	31	7	16.1	4.7	0.5	1.8	2.3	0.8	0.55	0.32	0.8	1.4	1.0	7.3
Travis Wear, SF	        50	1	13.3	3.9	0.5	1.5	2.0	0.8	0.30	0.22	0.7	1.1	1.1	8.5

The Draft will be important as will who Phil is able to bring in thru Free Agency but it's a very achievable goal to put together a good 6 man core.

Well, right now, I still think we have zero healthy players who would be in the top 6 rotation on a contender. You can't be any further than we are from a contending roster. The 6 players that you keep citing on the Hawks were added over a seven year period. That would take us into Melo's next super max contract!

Korver has been in ATL 3 yrs
Millsap 2 yrs
Carroll 2 yrs
Schroder 2 yrs
Sefolosha 1 yr

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

TripleThreat wrote:Melo and Zen Master have four years left. With virtually nothing on the roster left that anyone else will want in trade. If said draft pick hope develops ( even at the most historic rates possible), he will likely do so when Melo and Zen Master and whatever free agent pick ups this offseason are at the end of their deals.

NOTHING ANYONE CAN SAY HERE WILL RESOLVE THIS TIMELINE CONFLICT. NOTHING. ABSOLUTE NOTHING.

BULLISH! I actually respect your knowledge and great posting but lately you've been off your freakin rocker.

I notice you didn't actually respond to my post but instead went right back to this diatribe of negativity. You've come up with this narrative of utter hopelessness and call it some kind of irrefutable truth. The fact is that you are making up this so called Timeline and you are trying to pass it off as some kind of vetted method when it's all in your head. Regardless of how long Phil or Melo are still here the draft pick could still be here to form part of the teams future along with other young players we're adding now and in the future. He's been adding younger players since he's been here and that trend will likely continue.

Yes So far we don't have a pick in 2016 but we actually have picks in every year after that.

Knicks 1st Round Picks                    Knicks 2nd Round Picks
2015 - Own                                2015 - To HOU
2016 - More favorable of NYK and DEN      2016 - To HOU (via POR to SAC 
to DEN then other to TOR                  then removal of protection from NYK)
(via DEN swap for NYK)
2017 - Own                                2017 second round draft pick from Houston
2018 - Own                                2018 - Less favorable of NYK and LAC 
                                          then other to PHL (via PHL swap of LAC for NYK)
2019 - Own                                2019 second round draft pick from Cleveland
                                          2019 second round draft pick from Houston
2020 - Own                                2020 - Own
2021 - Own                                2021 - Own

The idea of having Melo here now is to bridge the gap between now and when our younger players fully develop. It makes sense to have some vets who can actually produce now. In terms of Free Agents as I posted earlier teams can win with smart additions rather than assuming you have to have a bunch of superstars in order to win. This is why I posted the Hawks Roster which at least shows that you can put together a roster intelligently and get a team that is greater than the sum of it's parts. Their roster proves that it is in fact possible for the Knicks to construct a competitive team minus top tier players all over the place. They have a bunch of smart and efficient players that are team oriented.

Rk Player	    Age	G  GS	MP	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1  Paul Millsap	    29	65 65	33.0	8.0	3.0	1.7	0.9	2.4	2.8	16.9
2  Kyle Korver	    33	64 64	32.7	4.1	2.5	0.7	0.5	1.5	1.9	12.4
3  DeMarre Carroll  28	58 57	31.4	5.3	1.6	1.3	0.2	0.9	2.3	12.1
4  Jeff Teague	    26	62 61	31.0	2.4	7.1	1.7	0.5	2.8	2.0	16.6
5  Al Horford	    28	64 64	30.8	7.4	3.3	0.9	1.3	1.3	1.6	15.2
6  Dennis Schroder  21	66 7	19.4	2.0	4.0	0.7	0.0	1.9	1.7	9.4
7  Thabo Sefolosha  30	45 7	19.0	4.3	1.5	1.0	0.5	0.7	1.3	5.1
8  Kent Bazemore    25	61 7	17.1	2.9	1.0	0.7	0.5	1.0	1.7	5.0
9  Pero Antic	    32	52 3	16.3	3.0	0.8	0.2	0.3	0.8	2.1	5.3
10 Mike Scott	    26	62 0	15.8	2.7	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.5	1.1	7.5
11 Shelvin Mack	    24	42 0	14.2	1.3	2.5	0.5	0.0	0.9	0.6	5.3
12 Elton Brand	    35	26 2	13.8	3.2	0.6	0.5	0.8	0.4	1.7	2.7
13 John Jenkins	    23	17 1	11.0	1.7	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.4	0.6	4.9
14 Mike Muscala	    23	26 2	9.1	2.4	0.3	0.2	0.5	0.3	0.9	3.6
15 Adreian Payne    23	3  0	6.3	1.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	1.3	1.7

Now i'm not saying that the Knicks will be as good as the Hawks are now next season. That's not the point. It is however, very possible to eventually have that kind of success if they put this team together intelligently.

You don't appear to be contradicting anything he said. You talk often about the fact that it's "very possible" or "not impossible" to build a "successful" team but that doesn't mean anything. Impossible doesn't apply in basketball. If you make as many assumptions as you want about signings and draft picks working out, "succeeding" is always possible.
Can you give some examples of teams that were in situations where eventual success was impossible?

This is what he was referring to:

For 40 percent of Phil Jackson's contract timeline, the Knicks don't own a draft pick.

Also, someone needs to change Phil Jackson's wiki. Apparently he turned 70 in March of 2014.

OK - my comments about "possibility" and "success" apply to most of what he writes though

The Draft component was a huge aspect of my point, but going further most teams are really built with 6 starting caliber players as their main load carriers. This means that in truth what we're looking at this summer is to try and build a starting 5 and have a 6th man who can be dependable. In my use of the Hawks as an example it's clear that it's not as daunting a scenario as some are trying to make it out to be. There is a greater chance of being able to put together a quality team than there is of failure IMO. It's not an impossible task to find some Millsap, Carroll, Schroder and Sefolosha level players!!!

Holy cow! You're going out on the line here. At the moment, I don't think we have any healthy players who are NBA starters. If Melo comes back, healthy, we still need to add 5 to get 6 starting caliber players. I'd say the odds against that happening in one off-season are 10 to 1 generously and 1000 to 1 pessimistically. How often does a team get an entire starting lineup in one off-season?
I could make the question even more difficult and say, how often does that happen for GM's whose plan A was a historic failure, but we'll keep it simpler and stick with the previous question.

There are varying levels of starting caliber players. Besides which it doesn't have happen all at once. That's the goal but we can't feel like it's a complete failure if we end up with 3 free agents and have to rely on our draft pick and current players like Shved, Galloway and Bargs to comprise much of the rotation. We may not feel these players are any good because they're on the Knicks but they aren't as bad as we make them out to be. Remember that Galloway is a rookie and still improving.

PLAYER	                GP	GS	MIN	PPG	OFFR	DEFR	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	TPG	FPG	A/TO	PER
Carmelo Anthony, SF	40	40	35.7	24.2	1.8	4.8	6.6	3.1	1.00	0.43	2.2	2.2	1.4	21.8
Alexey Shved, PG†	15	8	27.1	15.1	0.9	3.8	4.7	3.7	1.00	0.33	1.5	1.6	2.4	21.3
Andrea Bargnani, C	20	13	26.6	14.4	1.1	3.3	4.4	1.6	0.10	0.80	1.4	1.9	1.1	16.7
Tim Hardaway Jr., SG	63	26	23.5	11.3	0.2	2.1	2.2	1.7	0.29	0.21	1.1	1.7	1.6	12.3
Langston Galloway, PG	32	28	31.0	11.1	0.9	3.4	4.3	3.0	1.03	0.28	1.3	2.9	2.3	12.2
Jose Calderon, PG	42	42	30.2	9.1	0.5	2.5	3.0	4.7	0.74	0.00	1.8	1.8	2.6	11.4
Lance Thomas, SF†	27	11	23.9	7.8	0.9	2.3	3.2	1.1	0.63	0.22	1.3	1.4	0.8	8.4
Jason Smith, PF	        69	28	21.2	7.6	1.2	2.6	3.7	1.6	0.36	0.43	1.1	2.5	1.4	11.6
Lou Amundson, PF†	28	26	21.7	6.7	2.5	3.6	6.1	1.8	0.50	1.25	1.1	3.0	1.5	14.6
Shane Larkin, PG	63	14	22.7	5.8	0.4	1.7	2.1	2.5	1.21	0.13	1.0	1.9	2.6	11.0
Quincy Acy, SF	        55	21	19.1	5.4	1.2	3.3	4.5	1.0	0.38	0.31	0.9	2.2	1.1	11.0
Cole Aldrich, C	        51	12	16.1	5.2	1.7	3.7	5.4	1.2	0.61	1.06	0.9	2.0	1.3	17.1
Cleanthony Early, SF	31	7	16.1	4.7	0.5	1.8	2.3	0.8	0.55	0.32	0.8	1.4	1.0	7.3
Travis Wear, SF	        50	1	13.3	3.9	0.5	1.5	2.0	0.8	0.30	0.22	0.7	1.1	1.1	8.5

The Draft will be important as will who Phil is able to bring in thru Free Agency but it's a very achievable goal to put together a good 6 man core.

Well, right now, I still think we have zero healthy players who would be in the top 6 rotation on a contender. You can't be any further than we are from a contending roster. The 6 players that you keep citing on the Hawks were added over a seven year period. That would take us into Melo's next super max contract!

See that's the problem. You're weighing things against a standard called a "contender" and assuming that none of our players would be a rotational player on a contender and that's why I posted the Hawks roster cuz just a short time agin no one would have said DeMarre Carroll was a top 6 rotation player on a contender and neither was Dennis Schroder. Don't underestimate how things could look after we add a few more front line players to the mix.

Korver has been in ATL 3 yrs
Millsap 2 yrs
Carroll 2 yrs
Schroder 2 yrs
Sefolosha 1 yr

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

TripleThreat wrote:Melo and Zen Master have four years left. With virtually nothing on the roster left that anyone else will want in trade. If said draft pick hope develops ( even at the most historic rates possible), he will likely do so when Melo and Zen Master and whatever free agent pick ups this offseason are at the end of their deals.

NOTHING ANYONE CAN SAY HERE WILL RESOLVE THIS TIMELINE CONFLICT. NOTHING. ABSOLUTE NOTHING.

BULLISH! I actually respect your knowledge and great posting but lately you've been off your freakin rocker.

I notice you didn't actually respond to my post but instead went right back to this diatribe of negativity. You've come up with this narrative of utter hopelessness and call it some kind of irrefutable truth. The fact is that you are making up this so called Timeline and you are trying to pass it off as some kind of vetted method when it's all in your head. Regardless of how long Phil or Melo are still here the draft pick could still be here to form part of the teams future along with other young players we're adding now and in the future. He's been adding younger players since he's been here and that trend will likely continue.

Yes So far we don't have a pick in 2016 but we actually have picks in every year after that.

Knicks 1st Round Picks                    Knicks 2nd Round Picks
2015 - Own                                2015 - To HOU
2016 - More favorable of NYK and DEN      2016 - To HOU (via POR to SAC 
to DEN then other to TOR                  then removal of protection from NYK)
(via DEN swap for NYK)
2017 - Own                                2017 second round draft pick from Houston
2018 - Own                                2018 - Less favorable of NYK and LAC 
                                          then other to PHL (via PHL swap of LAC for NYK)
2019 - Own                                2019 second round draft pick from Cleveland
                                          2019 second round draft pick from Houston
2020 - Own                                2020 - Own
2021 - Own                                2021 - Own

The idea of having Melo here now is to bridge the gap between now and when our younger players fully develop. It makes sense to have some vets who can actually produce now. In terms of Free Agents as I posted earlier teams can win with smart additions rather than assuming you have to have a bunch of superstars in order to win. This is why I posted the Hawks Roster which at least shows that you can put together a roster intelligently and get a team that is greater than the sum of it's parts. Their roster proves that it is in fact possible for the Knicks to construct a competitive team minus top tier players all over the place. They have a bunch of smart and efficient players that are team oriented.

Rk Player	    Age	G  GS	MP	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1  Paul Millsap	    29	65 65	33.0	8.0	3.0	1.7	0.9	2.4	2.8	16.9
2  Kyle Korver	    33	64 64	32.7	4.1	2.5	0.7	0.5	1.5	1.9	12.4
3  DeMarre Carroll  28	58 57	31.4	5.3	1.6	1.3	0.2	0.9	2.3	12.1
4  Jeff Teague	    26	62 61	31.0	2.4	7.1	1.7	0.5	2.8	2.0	16.6
5  Al Horford	    28	64 64	30.8	7.4	3.3	0.9	1.3	1.3	1.6	15.2
6  Dennis Schroder  21	66 7	19.4	2.0	4.0	0.7	0.0	1.9	1.7	9.4
7  Thabo Sefolosha  30	45 7	19.0	4.3	1.5	1.0	0.5	0.7	1.3	5.1
8  Kent Bazemore    25	61 7	17.1	2.9	1.0	0.7	0.5	1.0	1.7	5.0
9  Pero Antic	    32	52 3	16.3	3.0	0.8	0.2	0.3	0.8	2.1	5.3
10 Mike Scott	    26	62 0	15.8	2.7	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.5	1.1	7.5
11 Shelvin Mack	    24	42 0	14.2	1.3	2.5	0.5	0.0	0.9	0.6	5.3
12 Elton Brand	    35	26 2	13.8	3.2	0.6	0.5	0.8	0.4	1.7	2.7
13 John Jenkins	    23	17 1	11.0	1.7	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.4	0.6	4.9
14 Mike Muscala	    23	26 2	9.1	2.4	0.3	0.2	0.5	0.3	0.9	3.6
15 Adreian Payne    23	3  0	6.3	1.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	1.3	1.7

Now i'm not saying that the Knicks will be as good as the Hawks are now next season. That's not the point. It is however, very possible to eventually have that kind of success if they put this team together intelligently.

You don't appear to be contradicting anything he said. You talk often about the fact that it's "very possible" or "not impossible" to build a "successful" team but that doesn't mean anything. Impossible doesn't apply in basketball. If you make as many assumptions as you want about signings and draft picks working out, "succeeding" is always possible.
Can you give some examples of teams that were in situations where eventual success was impossible?

This is what he was referring to:

For 40 percent of Phil Jackson's contract timeline, the Knicks don't own a draft pick.

Also, someone needs to change Phil Jackson's wiki. Apparently he turned 70 in March of 2014.

OK - my comments about "possibility" and "success" apply to most of what he writes though

The Draft component was a huge aspect of my point, but going further most teams are really built with 6 starting caliber players as their main load carriers. This means that in truth what we're looking at this summer is to try and build a starting 5 and have a 6th man who can be dependable. In my use of the Hawks as an example it's clear that it's not as daunting a scenario as some are trying to make it out to be. There is a greater chance of being able to put together a quality team than there is of failure IMO. It's not an impossible task to find some Millsap, Carroll, Schroder and Sefolosha level players!!!

Holy cow! You're going out on the line here. At the moment, I don't think we have any healthy players who are NBA starters. If Melo comes back, healthy, we still need to add 5 to get 6 starting caliber players. I'd say the odds against that happening in one off-season are 10 to 1 generously and 1000 to 1 pessimistically. How often does a team get an entire starting lineup in one off-season?
I could make the question even more difficult and say, how often does that happen for GM's whose plan A was a historic failure, but we'll keep it simpler and stick with the previous question.

There are varying levels of starting caliber players. Besides which it doesn't have happen all at once. That's the goal but we can't feel like it's a complete failure if we end up with 3 free agents and have to rely on our draft pick and current players like Shved, Galloway and Bargs to comprise much of the rotation. We may not feel these players are any good because they're on the Knicks but they aren't as bad as we make them out to be. Remember that Galloway is a rookie and still improving.

PLAYER	                GP	GS	MIN	PPG	OFFR	DEFR	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	TPG	FPG	A/TO	PER
Carmelo Anthony, SF	40	40	35.7	24.2	1.8	4.8	6.6	3.1	1.00	0.43	2.2	2.2	1.4	21.8
Alexey Shved, PG†	15	8	27.1	15.1	0.9	3.8	4.7	3.7	1.00	0.33	1.5	1.6	2.4	21.3
Andrea Bargnani, C	20	13	26.6	14.4	1.1	3.3	4.4	1.6	0.10	0.80	1.4	1.9	1.1	16.7
Tim Hardaway Jr., SG	63	26	23.5	11.3	0.2	2.1	2.2	1.7	0.29	0.21	1.1	1.7	1.6	12.3
Langston Galloway, PG	32	28	31.0	11.1	0.9	3.4	4.3	3.0	1.03	0.28	1.3	2.9	2.3	12.2
Jose Calderon, PG	42	42	30.2	9.1	0.5	2.5	3.0	4.7	0.74	0.00	1.8	1.8	2.6	11.4
Lance Thomas, SF†	27	11	23.9	7.8	0.9	2.3	3.2	1.1	0.63	0.22	1.3	1.4	0.8	8.4
Jason Smith, PF	        69	28	21.2	7.6	1.2	2.6	3.7	1.6	0.36	0.43	1.1	2.5	1.4	11.6
Lou Amundson, PF†	28	26	21.7	6.7	2.5	3.6	6.1	1.8	0.50	1.25	1.1	3.0	1.5	14.6
Shane Larkin, PG	63	14	22.7	5.8	0.4	1.7	2.1	2.5	1.21	0.13	1.0	1.9	2.6	11.0
Quincy Acy, SF	        55	21	19.1	5.4	1.2	3.3	4.5	1.0	0.38	0.31	0.9	2.2	1.1	11.0
Cole Aldrich, C	        51	12	16.1	5.2	1.7	3.7	5.4	1.2	0.61	1.06	0.9	2.0	1.3	17.1
Cleanthony Early, SF	31	7	16.1	4.7	0.5	1.8	2.3	0.8	0.55	0.32	0.8	1.4	1.0	7.3
Travis Wear, SF	        50	1	13.3	3.9	0.5	1.5	2.0	0.8	0.30	0.22	0.7	1.1	1.1	8.5

The Draft will be important as will who Phil is able to bring in thru Free Agency but it's a very achievable goal to put together a good 6 man core.

Well, right now, I still think we have zero healthy players who would be in the top 6 rotation on a contender. You can't be any further than we are from a contending roster. The 6 players that you keep citing on the Hawks were added over a seven year period. That would take us into Melo's next super max contract!

See that's the problem. You're weighing things against a standard called a "contender" and assuming that none of our players would be a rotational player on a contender and that's why I posted the Hawks roster cuz just a short time agin no one would have said DeMarre Carroll was a top 6 rotation player on a contender and neither was Dennis Schroder. Don't underestimate how things could look after we add a few more front line players to the mix.

Korver has been in ATL 3 yrs
Millsap 2 yrs
Carroll 2 yrs
Schroder 2 yrs
Sefolosha 1 yr

OK - so 3 years for 2/3 of Atlanta's core. So 3 years from now - in Melo's fifteenth year - we could be 2/3 of the way to where we need to be?
If you looked at Carroll's #s, you could easily see this happening. Schroder - I'm not sure but he hasn't been good this year anyway.

My point was that they added 3 guys in the same year and Korver the year before them. You're only looking at this in the most negative way rather than to look at the obvious fact that they made a massive influx of what has become their top rotation guys at pretty much the same time. Do you see what i'm getting at yet? There's nothing to suggest that the Knicks can't do something similar. Melo, Shved, Galloway, Draft pick, 3 Free Agents and hopefully some of your prospects develop into solid rotation players. That's not a long time to see significant improvement in the roster.

Bonn1997 wrote:I'd be really curious to see what you think the odds are of each of these happening, Nixluva. I'm also certain you're not appreciating that the overall odds of a plan working are product of each individual decision. I've out a blank line so you can put a number in each spot. If someone held a gun to your head and required you to give a number, what percentage odds would you give to
A) ______ Melo returning healthy as an all-star?
B) ______ Free agent signing #1 being a solid NBA starter next year (Let's for simplicity assume Phil makes 3 significant signings and we'll randomly call them #1, #2, and #3)
C) _____ Free agent signing #2 being a solid NBA starter next year
D) _____ Free agent signing #3 being a solid NBA starter next year
E) _____ Our first round pick being a solid NBA starter next year
F) _____ Phil having a reasonably strong bench next year

The catch is that even if you say each of these has a 90% chance of happening (which is absurdly optimistic), you're still at a roughly 50/50 overall probability.

1st of all who said that every single aspect has to be a home run in order for this team to make a significant improvement? Melo was on one leg and still played at a respectable level. Dude had a bad case of Jumper's Knee. If he can be at 80-90% to start the year, he's still better than a lot of players in this league. The thing about adding talent is that Melo won't have to carry the team as in the past.

In terms of Free Agents the entire idea of bringing in Free Agents is to add better players than you already have. We're talking about proven talent. We all know who the Free Agents we're likely to target are. Most of the Free Agents we'd target would provide a quality improvement over what we have now. IF only 2 of the Free Agents panned out it would still be an improvement. Only because we're talking about the Knicks are we assuming failure with Talented Players in the Draft or FA.

Just looking at the list of Unrestricted Free Agents alone you can see how many players will be available. Many of them would be an improvement over what we have. Some are young prospects who actually have some talent and could be good to grab. We're not even talking about any of the RFA's.

PLAYER                  POS.    AGE     FROM    2014 CAP HIT  	STATUS
Kendall Marshall 	PG	23	MIL   	$915,243	UFA
Jeremy Lin	        PG	26	LAL  	$8,374,646      UFA      
Goran Dragic 		PG	28	PHX  	$7,500,000    	UFA
John Jenkins	        SG	23	ATL  	$1,312,920    	UFA
Austin River		SG	24	NOP  	$2,439,840    	UFA
Kyle Singler	        SG	26	DET  	$1,090,000    	UFA
Donald Sloan 		SG	26	IND  	$948,163	UFA
Danny Green	        SG	27	SAS  	$4,025,000    	UFA
Marcus Thornton		SG	27	BOS  	$8,575,000    	UFA
Wesley Matthews		SG	28	POR  	$7,245,640    	UFA
Marco Belinelli		SG	28	SAS  	$2,873,750    	UFA
Luke Babbitt	        SF	25	NOP  	$981,084	UFA
Robbie Hummel		SF	25	MIN  	$880,000	UFA
Omri Casspi	        SF	26	SAC  	$915,243	UFA
Wesley Johnson		SF	27	LAL  	$915,243	UFA
Alonzo Gee	        SF	27	DEN  	$915,243	UFA
Jeremy Evans		SF	27	UTH  	$1,794,871      UFA
Gerald Green		SF	28	PHX  	$3,500,000    	UFA
DeMarre Carroll		SF	28	ATL  	$2,442,455    	UFA
Thomas Robinson		PF	23	POR  	$3,678,360    	UFA
Kevin Seraphin		PF	25	WAS  	$3,898,691    	UFA
LaVoy Allen	        PF	25	IND  	$915,243	UFA
Darrell Arthur		PF	26	DEN  	$3,457,149      UFA
Austin Daye	        PF	26	SAS  	$1,063,384    	UFA
Malcolm Thomas		PF	26	BOS  	$635,827	UFA
Amir Johnson		PF	27	TOR  	$7,000,000    	UFA
Dante Cunningham	PF	27	NOP  	$716,043	UFA
Jonas Jerebko		PF	27	DET  	$4,500,000    	UFA
Jeff Ayres	        PF	27	SAS  	$1,828,750    	UFA
Luc R Mbah a Moute	PF	28	PHI  	$4,382,576    	UFA
Jason Smith	        PF	28	NYK  	$3,278,000    	UFA
Aron Baynes	        PF	28	SAS  	$2,077,000    	UFA
Greg Monroe	        C	24	DET  	$5,479,933    	UFA
Greg Smith	        C	24	DAL  	$948,163	UFA
DeAndre Jordan		C	26	LAC  	$11,440,123   	UFA
Robin Lopez	        C	26	POR  	$6,124,729    	UFA
Alexis Ajinca	        C	26	NOP  	$981,084	UFA
Brandan Wright		C	27	BOS  	$5,000,000    	UFA
Omer Asik	        C	28	NOP  	$8,374,646    	UFA

As for the Bench that always looks better the more front line talent you have and the Role players can be pushed down the rotation and into roles they can handle.

mreinman wrote:

BRIGGS wrote:TT

You have done the homework and realize that67% of players picked between 1-4 the last 15 years have either been all star or franchise caliber.

source please??

mreinman wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

mreinman wrote:

BRIGGS wrote:TT

You have done the homework and realize that67% of players picked between 1-4 the last 15 years have either been all star or franchise caliber.

source please??

I don't think this is Briggs' source but data is similar to what he posted.
http://82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

ouch ... that was very lazy work by that guy.

I want to see the source that states the All Star PCT and Franchise Player ...

Average Career Stats by draft pick number
Pick
#       Gms     Min     Pts     Reb     Ast     Rtg     Star    Solid   RoleP   DeepB   Bust    DNP
1	20	555	32.9	16.6	7.8	2.7	27.0	70%	25%	5%			
2	20	583	29.6	12.9	5.9	2.8	21.6	60%	25%	15%			
3	20	535	31.9	15.2	5.1	3.5	23.8	85%	10%	5%			
4	20	585	30.5	13.7	5.5	3.1	22.2	60%	30%	10%			
5	20	552	28.7	13.4	4.9	2.7	21.1	60%	15%	10%	15%		
6	20	406	25.4	10.2	4.6	1.7	16.5	25%	30%	30%	15%		
7	20	483	26.8	10.9	4.3	2.6	17.8	30%	40%	25%	5%		
8	20	397	22.9	9.3	3.9	1.9	15.2	35%	15%	15%	35%		
9	20	460	23.1	10.2	4.9	1.6	16.6	30%	10%	35%	20%	5%	
10	20	497	24.6	10.2	4.4	2.2	16.7	35%	25%	25%	10%	5%	

The next thing to observe is where the best players from the NBA draft come from. If we assume that about 20 players have a meaningful career per draft class,
here is where those players are drafted from. The twenty best players from each draft class is based on career win shares on basketball-reference.com.
Draft Class	Top 14 picks	1st Round	2nd Round
2012	        8	        7	        5
2011	        10	        7	        3
2010	        11	        6	        3
2009	        7	        6	        7
2008	        6	        9	        5
2007	        8	        9	        3
2006	        10	        5	        5
2005	        9	        5	        6
2004	        8	        9	        3
2003	        7	        6	        7
2002	        8	        5	        7
2001	        10	        6	        4
2000	        7	        8	        5

Another one:

The NBA draft lottery was instituted in 1985. I looked up how many wins (as measured by Basketball-Reference.com’s win shares)5 each player chosen in the first
round since then produced during his first five NBA seasons,6 based on the slot where he was selected.7 The analysis accounts for the fact that the most recent selections,
such as the New Orleans Pelicans’ Anthony Davis, have not yet seen five seasons.8

The average number of wins produced by draft selections Nos. 1 through 309 appears in the graphic below. The pattern is fairly nonlinear: No. 1 overall picks have produced
an average of 33.9 wins in the five seasons following their pick, as compared to 22.3 for No. 2 overall selections. It takes a logarithmic curve, with a fairly sharp uptick
for the No. 1 overall pick, to do an adequate job of fitting past years’ results.

First, look at the downhill trend of the graph. That can be expected, of course, but it shows that if you don't have a top three or at least top five pick, you really do
need to get lucky. In most drafts there is somewhat of a consensus on the top five picks before the draft even starts, and those picks are always the safest. In fact,
51 out of 100 total top five picks made an All-Star appearance, which is a great rate.

CrushAlot wrote:

mreinman wrote:

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

mreinman wrote:

BRIGGS wrote:TT

You have done the homework and realize that67% of players picked between 1-4 the last 15 years have either been all star or franchise caliber.

source please??

I don't think this is Briggs' source but data is similar to what he posted.
http://82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

ouch ... that was very lazy work by that guy.

I want to see the source that states the All Star PCT and Franchise Player ...

It's easy to criticize but even with this crude sampling it's yet another thing that goes against the naysayers arguments. Combined with the points I posted above it's showing a very compelling argument in the Knicks favor this summer rather than a low % chance at success.

Average Career Stats by draft pick number
Pick
#       Gms     Min     Pts     Reb     Ast     Rtg     Star    Solid   RoleP   DeepB   Bust    DNP
1	20	555	32.9	16.6	7.8	2.7	27.0	70%	25%	5%			
2	20	583	29.6	12.9	5.9	2.8	21.6	60%	25%	15%			
3	20	535	31.9	15.2	5.1	3.5	23.8	85%	10%	5%			
4	20	585	30.5	13.7	5.5	3.1	22.2	60%	30%	10%			
5	20	552	28.7	13.4	4.9	2.7	21.1	60%	15%	10%	15%		
6	20	406	25.4	10.2	4.6	1.7	16.5	25%	30%	30%	15%		
7	20	483	26.8	10.9	4.3	2.6	17.8	30%	40%	25%	5%		
8	20	397	22.9	9.3	3.9	1.9	15.2	35%	15%	15%	35%		
9	20	460	23.1	10.2	4.9	1.6	16.6	30%	10%	35%	20%	5%	
10	20	497	24.6	10.2	4.4	2.2	16.7	35%	25%	25%	10%	5%	

where is that from?

the number one pick averages 33/16/8??

I'm sold!!

why only a 27% chance to be a star?

Do you think that we actually have a better chance at being a good team then a bad team next year?

Not sure what you are after. I thought you wanted a source for success of top 4 picks.

trust me... the software is too damn cheap to not have any investment in that space, hardware.... even cheaper!

and then for someone to think that it's not being factored into the equation... its even more unrealistic.

nixluva wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

mreinman wrote:

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

mreinman wrote:

BRIGGS wrote:TT

You have done the homework and realize that67% of players picked between 1-4 the last 15 years have either been all star or franchise caliber.

source please??

I don't think this is Briggs' source but data is similar to what he posted.
http://82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

ouch ... that was very lazy work by that guy.

I want to see the source that states the All Star PCT and Franchise Player ...

It's easy to criticize but even with this crude sampling it's yet another thing that goes against the naysayers arguments. Combined with the points I posted above it's showing a very compelling argument in the Knicks favor this summer rather than a low % chance at success.

Average Career Stats by draft pick number
Pick
#       Gms     Min     Pts     Reb     Ast     Rtg     Star    Solid   RoleP   DeepB   Bust    DNP
1	20	555	32.9	16.6	7.8	2.7	27.0	70%	25%	5%			
2	20	583	29.6	12.9	5.9	2.8	21.6	60%	25%	15%			
3	20	535	31.9	15.2	5.1	3.5	23.8	85%	10%	5%			
4	20	585	30.5	13.7	5.5	3.1	22.2	60%	30%	10%			
5	20	552	28.7	13.4	4.9	2.7	21.1	60%	15%	10%	15%		
6	20	406	25.4	10.2	4.6	1.7	16.5	25%	30%	30%	15%		
7	20	483	26.8	10.9	4.3	2.6	17.8	30%	40%	25%	5%		
8	20	397	22.9	9.3	3.9	1.9	15.2	35%	15%	15%	35%		
9	20	460	23.1	10.2	4.9	1.6	16.6	30%	10%	35%	20%	5%	
10	20	497	24.6	10.2	4.4	2.2	16.7	35%	25%	25%	10%	5%	

where is that from?

the number one pick averages 33/16/8??

I'm sold!!

why only a 27% chance to be a star?

Do you think that we actually have a better chance at being a good team then a bad team next year?

Not sure what you are after. I thought you wanted a source for success of top 4 picks.

It doesn't matter what evidence we provide there is a group of guys who refuse to accept that there is in fact a chance that this team can improve next year. We can't provide enough proof for these guys. They want to be miserable and angry about the team's situation and don't want to try and look for ways this team could realistically improve.

Bonn actually laid it out quite clearly for you yet you refuse to comprehend.

I ask again, do you think that the knicks have a better chance to be good next year or not good?

Even if the pick ends up being an all star down the line, you do realize how many things that we need to go right to be good and the probabilities / statistics that go along with that?

You provided evidence? Really? Of course the team "has a chance" to improve next year. Statistically, its almost impossible for that not to happen.

mreinman wrote:

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

mreinman wrote:

BRIGGS wrote:TT

You have done the homework and realize that67% of players picked between 1-4 the last 15 years have either been all star or franchise caliber.

source please??

I don't think this is Briggs' source but data is similar to what he posted.
http://82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

ouch ... that was very lazy work by that guy.

I want to see the source that states the All Star PCT and Franchise Player ...

It's easy to criticize but even with this crude sampling it's yet another thing that goes against the naysayers arguments. Combined with the points I posted above it's showing a very compelling argument in the Knicks favor this summer rather than a low % chance at success.

Average Career Stats by draft pick number
Pick
#       Gms     Min     Pts     Reb     Ast     Rtg     Star    Solid   RoleP   DeepB   Bust    DNP
1	20	555	32.9	16.6	7.8	2.7	27.0	70%	25%	5%			
2	20	583	29.6	12.9	5.9	2.8	21.6	60%	25%	15%			
3	20	535	31.9	15.2	5.1	3.5	23.8	85%	10%	5%			
4	20	585	30.5	13.7	5.5	3.1	22.2	60%	30%	10%			
5	20	552	28.7	13.4	4.9	2.7	21.1	60%	15%	10%	15%		
6	20	406	25.4	10.2	4.6	1.7	16.5	25%	30%	30%	15%		
7	20	483	26.8	10.9	4.3	2.6	17.8	30%	40%	25%	5%		
8	20	397	22.9	9.3	3.9	1.9	15.2	35%	15%	15%	35%		
9	20	460	23.1	10.2	4.9	1.6	16.6	30%	10%	35%	20%	5%	
10	20	497	24.6	10.2	4.4	2.2	16.7	35%	25%	25%	10%	5%	

where is that from?

the number one pick averages 33/16/8??

I'm sold!!

why only a 27% chance to be a star?

Do you think that we actually have a better chance at being a good team then a bad team next year?

you probably noticed, the column headers are not lining up correctly. its 16.6/7.8/2.7 per game.