how do you know a player is good by watching him play?

smackeddog wrote:

mreinman wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

dk7th wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

mreinman wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

mreinman wrote:

fishmike wrote:have you watched Harden in the playoffs? Boy you guys think Melo chucks... yikes

We gotta stop the Eye tests and start checking stats.

Harden's playoff TS = 58.5!

Melos = 51.3

McHale is really doing a bad job with him. He needs to use him more effectively off the ball. And, as smart as Morey is, he gave away 2 great PG who are so desperately needed right now.

Most of that's from playing with Durant and Westbrook- if Melo played with Durant and Westbrook, he'd have a higher TS %. that's the thing with stats, it ignores context.

Sorry but this assertion is simply unsubstantiated. How come Harden was so efficient in the regular season in Houston?

Is there proof that playing with better player makes you that more efficient? If you have any, please provide.

That's one of my problems with advanced stats- people no longer use common sense or trust their own judgement unless some sort of number tells them what to think! It's basic basketball knowledge- if you're the best player on the team and your teammates are trash and can't shoot, then the opposing defense can just zero's in on that player and through double and triple teams at them (see Melo vs the entire Pacers defense last years playoffs, or vs the Miami Heat the year before). If Melo played beside Lebron and Dwade, do you really think he would have had it as tough vs the Pacers?!

Harden was on a team of excellent three point shooters and Dwight Howard during the regular season- the defense can't just key in on him, so he has a bit more freedom.

The idea that the earth was flat was once common sense. How do you know if "common sense" is valid until you test it? The fact that a belief is common does not in any way mean it's valid.

Because I don't need to test the belief that if a good player plays beside other good players, they are more likely to have a more easy time of things and therefore by more efficient, than if they are the only good player on a team full of scrubs- sorry if you think this is a radical concept! What next? You have to provide quantified proof that a player at 40 isn't as good as they were when they were 25?! This is frickin basketball not quantum mechanics!

You're saying your intuition can tell you whether an idea is right or not. You're not really arguing against advanced stats. You're actually arguing against the scientific method.
Nearly all the teams are hiring metrics experts now. You gotta move into the 21st century!

Argh! I feel like I'm at work! I have this argument every day! I'm not even allowed to send out my own letters to clients once they've dropped out- I have to use uniform, scientific letters!

This metrics thing is a flash in the pan- it can be a useful tool, but you have to use it in conjunction with instinct, common sense and context, otherwise you're just deskilling yourself, and spending time unnecessarily calculating the obvious!

well it isn't immediately obvious to at least half the basketball fans why many players don't have what it takes to be winning players. stats are meant to illuminate further what one tries to see empirically on the court. some people have better eyes than others, right? and aren't they allowed to use statistics to further highlight the pros and cons of a player? you seem to think that statistics with regard to basketball are meant to support an argument exclusively which of course is an inaccurate conclusion.

But I don't think you can quantify the 'it' factor- guys like Robert Horry, Derek Fisher- they made insane clutch shots that are beyond reasoning!

Insane!

How many "it" factor guys are there? Yes, advanced metrics are not great at defining the value for these guys but while they are not perfect, they are much better than our blind eyes.

`but how do you know an actual player is 'good', just because their advance stats are good? It's like saying these advanced stats tell me these players are good and the proof that they actually are good is the advance stats.

Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

mreinman wrote:

fishmike wrote:have you watched Harden in the playoffs? Boy you guys think Melo chucks... yikes

We gotta stop the Eye tests and start checking stats.

Harden's playoff TS = 58.5!

Melos = 51.3

McHale is really doing a bad job with him. He needs to use him more effectively off the ball. And, as smart as Morey is, he gave away 2 great PG who are so desperately needed right now.

Most of that's from playing with Durant and Westbrook- if Melo played with Durant and Westbrook, he'd have a higher TS %. that's the thing with stats, it ignores context.

Sorry but this assertion is simply unsubstantiated. How come Harden was so efficient in the regular season in Houston?

There is no proof that playing with better player makes you more efficient. If you have any, please provide.

I guess you would have to look at on/of numbers around the league. Just a little while ago I was looking at an old article about how Melo's teammates TS% increased by 3+% with him on the floor. That was before he was an efficient player. I'd imagine Melo is not the only "good player" that would help his teammates efficiency.

Well I did some investigating. I think you're referring to this unimpressive effort by Nate Silver. He gets criticized pretty harshly by Berri and several other writers (see quotes section at the bottom) in the second paper.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/15/why-carmelo-anthony-is-the-ultimate-team-player-and-what-advanced-stats-miss-about-him/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0
http://wagesofwins.com/2011/01/17/commenting-on-nate-silver%E2%80%99s-melo-effect/
Berri doesn't conclude that the Melo effect is zero but rather that (a) it may or may not exist and (b) if it does, it's much smaller than Silver's analysis suggests.
Regarding point (A), Silver didn't control for any other factors. It could just as easily be the "Denver altitude effect" or the "George Karl effect" or the "peak age effect" (most of the players were entering their primes when playing with Melo). Silver just attributes everything to Melo without even acknowledging any other possible factors. But even if you attribute it all to Melo, it should be closer to 1.1% rather than a 3% increase in TS% (point B above).

when i was a poster on realgm back in 2011 i addressed these issues:

"very provocative articles, both from the wsj and now from this cat.

but i am not buying into silver's perspective.

firstly winning 48 games even in a loaded western conference means less than he wants it to for the mere fact that the league is diluted and half the teams are going to be below .500 teams that a slightly better than mediocre team should beat. and frankly, given the nuggets almost complete underachieving in the playoffs, we should not look at 48 regular-season wins as any major accomplishment. yet he uses this amount of regular-season winning as a premise for the rest of the article.

in particular this material about carmelo making others more efficient while he himself remains inefficient is counter-intuitive in the extreme to the point that i have to question the validity of these statistics. or if it is valid then i would simply say that we have a player on this team that accomplishes much the same thing so far as making others more efficient just by his presence on the floor and with one half the usage rate. that's an important factor silver neglected to include: the relationship between usage rate and efficiency and the ability to make others more efficient. or as you said any decent offensive player should have this effect on his teammates, moreover be an efficient offensive player himself and with a strong TS%.

again, in my opinion the trouble is that with anthony his usage rate is through the roof and though he allegedly makes others more efficient in the regular season by his presence, he should be making them better than he does given how much of the time the ball is in his hands, and doing so through a higher assist average.

long story short how well does carmelo's game (1) mesh with others and (2) how much better does he ACTIVELY make his teammates given a 33.4% usage rate? the answer is (1) "not very well" and (2) "not enough," respectively. your best player should be better at making others better and if he doesn't then you can certainly expect more failure than success in the playoffs where you play better than average teams.

if carmelo comes to play for d'antoni with a shoot first power forward whose game is extended to 20 feet and who himself has a 31% usage rate, a shoot first point guard whose game is extended to beyond the 3-point line with a 22.6% usage rate who doesn't maintain his dribble, where will he fit in, since he needs the ball in his hands to be effective, being basically an isolation player?

does anyone envision carmelo adjusting his game without becoming disgruntled or envision d'antoni adapting his offense to suit the proclivities of carmelo anthony? i sure as hell don't.

walsh is unlikely to trade for carmelo. just reading the newspaper this morning you can sense he is annoyed with the constant questions about carmelo. i'd be annoyed too if people constantly asked me about a player that doesn't address a clear need and if my agenda is to patiently build a team, which precludes gutting it.

and if we renounce wilson chandler as a result in order to acquire anthony that still doesn't address the much more pressing needs of a backup point guard and a defensive presence in the middle."

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:have you watched Harden in the playoffs? Boy you guys think Melo chucks... yikes

Yeah, his playoff career FG% is almost as bad as Melo's!

so there you go.. and the guy's a weirdo. His defense is non existant. At this point player for player I take Melo hands down. Also assuming Melo resigns at a reasonable rate as promised. If other pieces are involved ok, but what would they be?

how about at this point?

smackeddog wrote:

mreinman wrote:

fishmike wrote:have you watched Harden in the playoffs? Boy you guys think Melo chucks... yikes

We gotta stop the Eye tests and start checking stats.

Harden's playoff TS = 58.5!

Melos = 51.3

McHale is really doing a bad job with him. He needs to use him more effectively off the ball. And, as smart as Morey is, he gave away 2 great PG who are so desperately needed right now.

Most of that's from playing with Durant and Westbrook- if Melo played with Durant and Westbrook, he'd have a higher TS %. that's the thing with stats, it ignores context.

durant and westbrook should wish they were playing with Harden

mreinman wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

mreinman wrote:

fishmike wrote:have you watched Harden in the playoffs? Boy you guys think Melo chucks... yikes

We gotta stop the Eye tests and start checking stats.

Harden's playoff TS = 58.5!

Melos = 51.3

McHale is really doing a bad job with him. He needs to use him more effectively off the ball. And, as smart as Morey is, he gave away 2 great PG who are so desperately needed right now.

Most of that's from playing with Durant and Westbrook- if Melo played with Durant and Westbrook, he'd have a higher TS %. that's the thing with stats, it ignores context.

durant and westbrook should wish they were playing with Harden

Take away the ridiculous foul calls he gets, and he's a pretty poor shooter.

mreinman wrote:

Dagger wrote:

mreinman wrote:Seriously?

No way in bloody hell that Houston makes that move. Morey is not retarded, he is quite smart.

I do predict many pages in this thread though

The only advantage harden has over melo is that he's younger. I think it's a pretty neutral trade for both sides.

still feel that way?

Pretty much, harden is the more effective player right now, but his best attribute, the ability to draw fouls and get to the line would not be as reliable on a bad team like the Knicks.

smackeddog wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:mreinman holding people accountable!

I'm really not bothered about whether my opinions were right or wrong- they're guesses. I enjoy discussions and hearing other peoples opinions. These boards are awash with people who are obsessed with being right.

its not about being right.

its about learning to be more right then wrong.

same posters are usually making the same mistakes.

Lowry, Harden, Josh Smith, Amare, Bargs ....