OasisBU wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:OasisBU wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:OasisBU wrote:martin wrote:Here is one thing that should scare conservatives in general, especially if they don't change the way their party embraces certain issues: California got a super-majority in both houses. CA has typically set the direction that the country as a whole is headed with respect to political issues, albeit they are about 20 years ahead of everyone else. I want to say that this may have been the influence of tons of minority voters but am not totally sure. Obviously CA goes much further to the left that most all states would venture, but it's a sign of things to come.Also, I think there is a wildly popular Hispanic political figure in Texas who has his sights on the governors seat, if that comes to fruition over the next 10 years and that state turns blue, every Republican presidential candidate can practically kiss their chances goodbye unless they embrace immigration is a very different way.
I think if you watched the electoral college map (and I am sure you did) you can see the Republicans are already in serious trouble. Some traditionally red corridors have turned blue and I think the embracing of hard lines on immigration, abortion, and other social issues will be the death of the party.
Like everything politics is a cycle, the Republicans had 8 years while the Democrats were kind of in shambles (Kerry was the equivalent of the Romney nomination IMO). The major difference between the Democrats of 2004 and the Republicans of 2012 was the Democrats were not as radical on social issues and just needed to get their act together. The Republicans on the other hand are a total disaster, they need to change their stances on social issues and move away from the Christian right base. They have managed to alienate the Hispanic vote and women and have not been able to draw in young people or minorities. With the changing landscape of America I just don't understand their positions in 2012 - and a lot of faithful Republicans are considering leaving the party unless major changes are made.
A guy like Rubio may bring the Hispanic vote back (and a different position on immigration). Like you said, major changes are needed if they want to remain relevant.
Which social issues would they change their views on though? If they pick just one or two, it would be arbitrary. If they pick every social issue, then suddenly they're simply the Democratic party. There isn't a simple solution for them.
I think they differentiate themselves through fiscal policy. Its possible to approve of gay marriage, immigration, abortion, etc and still be opposed to reliance on government handouts and increased taxes to protect legacy programs that need to be overhauled.
I don't think it's that simple. Every candidate runs on decreasing spending and then spends a ton. They have special interest groups to satisfy. In addition, the Democrats have run on tax cuts for the lower 98% of the population. What you're basically saying is that the Republicans will be arguing "We're clones of the Democrats on every issue except that we disagree on the tax rate for 2% of the population." The only way that would work is if Democrats completely screw things up - to the point that George Bush did.
Like I said, politics goes in cycles. If you think the dems are unbeatable and will remain in power without messing things up just check the end of the Clinton 2nd term - Internet bubbly burst and recession. That's all it takes. It's very possibly we see something similar with Obama and then the republicans will capitalize.
I don't think it's as hard for them to change as you make it out to be - the democrats are still the party of big government. Softening on some social issues hardly makes the republicans clones. As far as spending goes I totally agree - everyone runs on spending less, but things like government mandated healthcare are a democrat item and there are a lot who don't support it.
Both parties are equally financially irresponsible. The only difference is that constituents want the money spent on themselves. The economic collapse wasn't Bush's fault, but the Bush Tax Cuts combined with 2 unfounded wars and I funded prescription drug coverage for seniors are major contributors to the current deficit. Obama's no saint when it comes to this issue either. People vote on social issues and ther short-term wallet issues. Nothing else.
Ironically, a major reason Gore lost his election was because he wanted to hang onto the Clinton surplus to pay future debt but W ran on cutting taxes and giving that Money back to the people.