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Hollinger Knicks preview: 50 wins baby!
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gunsnewing
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10/16/2013  7:22 PM
^NOPE
AUTOADVERT
dk7th
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10/16/2013  9:14 PM
holfresh wrote:ESPN prediction from last year..And the comments, WOW...dk7 fought me all year about some of these comments...

it's all about shaping the team into a playoff-ready performer.

holfresh they got a wake-up call against the 7th seeded celtics before getting hammered by the 3rd seeded pacers. yes or no? of course the answer is yes. so what that means is that they were not a "genuine" 2nd seed at any time save the first eight games of the season. regular-season records can sometimes suffer from inflation because of so much inferior competition. you understand this conceptually, surely. i call it a fool's gold team, filled with jayvee players like smith and felton.

as you said: facts are facts.

and remember my motto, borrowed from bill bradley: it'a not THAT you win but HOW you win that counts!

knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%
dk7th
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10/16/2013  9:22 PM
holfresh wrote:The elephant in the room is Amare..He can't play and his contract is killing our chances to add a player to compete at the next level..U can't ignore that...

you also can't ignore that melo could have played out his contract in denver and come here as a free agent. if denver tries to trade him to the nets then guess what the knicks continue to build and do an upgrade at a position of need: point guard. felton simply doesn't cut it. he's scrub material. no shame in that.

you really should re-read the posts i made in the thread you resurrected. they are quite prescient and insightful.

knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%
KEEPCAMBYNY
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10/16/2013  9:33 PM
tkf wrote:
holfresh wrote:Obviously written well before the pre-season started...

AS IT SHOULD BE.. OR are you telling me they should put a lot of stock in pre-season games?

or are you saying after these stunning two preseason wins he should now change his tune to 55 wins?

Wow! TKF called this one, way to go TKF

I bleed orange and blue for life.
holfresh
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10/17/2013  10:34 AM    LAST EDITED: 10/17/2013  10:49 AM
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:The elephant in the room is Amare..He can't play and his contract is killing our chances to add a player to compete at the next level..U can't ignore that...

you also can't ignore that melo could have played out his contract in denver and come here as a free agent. if denver tries to trade him to the nets then guess what the knicks continue to build and do an upgrade at a position of need: point guard. felton simply doesn't cut it. he's scrub material. no shame in that.

you really should re-read the posts i made in the thread you resurrected. they are quite prescient and insightful.

It was your call that the Knicks could finish 7th in the East, and that Felton would not help the Knicks, and u call this insightful???

dk7th
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10/17/2013  4:09 PM
holfresh wrote:
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:The elephant in the room is Amare..He can't play and his contract is killing our chances to add a player to compete at the next level..U can't ignore that...

you also can't ignore that melo could have played out his contract in denver and come here as a free agent. if denver tries to trade him to the nets then guess what the knicks continue to build and do an upgrade at a position of need: point guard. felton simply doesn't cut it. he's scrub material. no shame in that.

you really should re-read the posts i made in the thread you resurrected. they are quite prescient and insightful.

It was your call that the Knicks could finish 7th in the East, and that Felton would not help the Knicks, and u call this insightful???

so you are going back to this one? okay. if i said they were a 7th seed before the season started then okay fine that's what i said. then they ended up getting the second seed... only to get destroyed as though they were a 7th seed all along. so my pre-season prediction of 7th seed-- if i even made such a prediction-- proved correct where the rubber meets the road.

what i remember saying at some point in the second half of the season was that if they were not going to get it together they could easily slip to 7th seed because the standings at that juncture were so tight, like 2nd-7th were separated by only 3 games or so.

this season i predict 43-47 wins, unless they implode, in which case 37 wins is a distinct likelihood.

there is weak leadership, potential factions, and not enough cohesion or defense.

knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%
smackeddog
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10/17/2013  4:30 PM
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:The elephant in the room is Amare..He can't play and his contract is killing our chances to add a player to compete at the next level..U can't ignore that...

you also can't ignore that melo could have played out his contract in denver and come here as a free agent. if denver tries to trade him to the nets then guess what the knicks continue to build and do an upgrade at a position of need: point guard. felton simply doesn't cut it. he's scrub material. no shame in that.

you really should re-read the posts i made in the thread you resurrected. they are quite prescient and insightful.

It was your call that the Knicks could finish 7th in the East, and that Felton would not help the Knicks, and u call this insightful???

so you are going back to this one? okay. if i said they were a 7th seed before the season started then okay fine that's what i said. then they ended up getting the second seed... only to get destroyed as though they were a 7th seed all along. so my pre-season prediction of 7th seed-- if i even made such a prediction-- proved correct where the rubber meets the road.

Ha- that's one of the worst cases of denial I've read in awhile! Your prediction was WRONG, just admit it- there's nothing wrong with your predictions being wrong, mine are wrong most of the time, but what's the point in trying to deny that they were wrong, when they clearly were!

dk7th
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10/17/2013  4:39 PM
smackeddog wrote:
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:The elephant in the room is Amare..He can't play and his contract is killing our chances to add a player to compete at the next level..U can't ignore that...

you also can't ignore that melo could have played out his contract in denver and come here as a free agent. if denver tries to trade him to the nets then guess what the knicks continue to build and do an upgrade at a position of need: point guard. felton simply doesn't cut it. he's scrub material. no shame in that.

you really should re-read the posts i made in the thread you resurrected. they are quite prescient and insightful.

It was your call that the Knicks could finish 7th in the East, and that Felton would not help the Knicks, and u call this insightful???

so you are going back to this one? okay. if i said they were a 7th seed before the season started then okay fine that's what i said. then they ended up getting the second seed... only to get destroyed as though they were a 7th seed all along. so my pre-season prediction of 7th seed-- if i even made such a prediction-- proved correct where the rubber meets the road.

Ha- that's one of the worst cases of denial I've read in awhile! Your prediction was WRONG, just admit it- there's nothing wrong with your predictions being wrong, mine are wrong most of the time, but what's the point in trying to deny that they were wrong, when they clearly were!

first of all you or holfresh will have to dig up the post where i made a pre-season prediction of 7th seed before 2012-2013. i don't believe i did, and the last time the subject was brought up and i asked for evidence and all i got was <crickets>. when i myself tried to help by googling i could not find the post and i tried again just now, still nothing. doesn't sound like i would make such a low prediction before the season started but find the post and i will acknowledge it. meantime i will maintain the conceit that i am too good at this stuff to be that far off.

i do remember saying in the latter half of the season that they were in danger of falling to 7th seed if they were not careful.

i look forward to being found out by the gotcha! gang around here.

knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%
nixluva
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10/17/2013  4:51 PM
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:The elephant in the room is Amare..He can't play and his contract is killing our chances to add a player to compete at the next level..U can't ignore that...

you also can't ignore that melo could have played out his contract in denver and come here as a free agent. if denver tries to trade him to the nets then guess what the knicks continue to build and do an upgrade at a position of need: point guard. felton simply doesn't cut it. he's scrub material. no shame in that.

you really should re-read the posts i made in the thread you resurrected. they are quite prescient and insightful.

It was your call that the Knicks could finish 7th in the East, and that Felton would not help the Knicks, and u call this insightful???

so you are going back to this one? okay. if i said they were a 7th seed before the season started then okay fine that's what i said. then they ended up getting the second seed... only to get destroyed as though they were a 7th seed all along. so my pre-season prediction of 7th seed-- if i even made such a prediction-- proved correct where the rubber meets the road.

what i remember saying at some point in the second half of the season was that if they were not going to get it together they could easily slip to 7th seed because the standings at that juncture were so tight, like 2nd-7th were separated by only 3 games or so.

this season i predict 43-47 wins, unless they implode, in which case 37 wins is a distinct likelihood.

there is weak leadership, potential factions, and not enough cohesion or defense.


You have no proof that their is weak leadership, only your opinion. It's hard to even quantify how much of an impact any leader has on a given team. IMO there are only a very few truly great leaders that have a major impact on their team.

You have no proof of factions or a lack of cohesion. Last year the team had great chemistry and they all seem to get along very well. We don't know what the defense will be like this year. Last year they were middle of the pack on D, but it's possible that they will actually improve defensively. We have to see how that plays out, but there's no reason to expect that they will definitely not have enough defense.

holfresh
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10/17/2013  5:29 PM    LAST EDITED: 10/17/2013  5:30 PM
dk7th wrote:
smackeddog wrote:
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:The elephant in the room is Amare..He can't play and his contract is killing our chances to add a player to compete at the next level..U can't ignore that...

you also can't ignore that melo could have played out his contract in denver and come here as a free agent. if denver tries to trade him to the nets then guess what the knicks continue to build and do an upgrade at a position of need: point guard. felton simply doesn't cut it. he's scrub material. no shame in that.

you really should re-read the posts i made in the thread you resurrected. they are quite prescient and insightful.

It was your call that the Knicks could finish 7th in the East, and that Felton would not help the Knicks, and u call this insightful???

so you are going back to this one? okay. if i said they were a 7th seed before the season started then okay fine that's what i said. then they ended up getting the second seed... only to get destroyed as though they were a 7th seed all along. so my pre-season prediction of 7th seed-- if i even made such a prediction-- proved correct where the rubber meets the road.

Ha- that's one of the worst cases of denial I've read in awhile! Your prediction was WRONG, just admit it- there's nothing wrong with your predictions being wrong, mine are wrong most of the time, but what's the point in trying to deny that they were wrong, when they clearly were!

first of all you or holfresh will have to dig up the post where i made a pre-season prediction of 7th seed before 2012-2013. i don't believe i did, and the last time the subject was brought up and i asked for evidence and all i got was <crickets>. when i myself tried to help by googling i could not find the post and i tried again just now, still nothing. doesn't sound like i would make such a low prediction before the season started but find the post and i will acknowledge it. meantime i will maintain the conceit that i am too good at this stuff to be that far off.

i do remember saying in the latter half of the season that they were in danger of falling to 7th seed if they were not careful.

i look forward to being found out by the gotcha! gang around here.


doesn't matter what the record is. it's the top 3 seeds that matter. are they a top 3 seed in the east?

new york is going to have to get a higher seeding than any of the top 3 seeds from last year--

Miami
Boston
Indiana

This is plausible but not likely.

Philadelphia
New Jersey
Chicago

Question marks as big the Knicks but no doubt in the running.

I don't see any other team that really matters here.

Conclusion is that the Knicks are anywhere between a 3rd and a 7th seed, 3rd if you're an outright optimist.



U can find it in this very thread..Bottom of page 2...
dk7th
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10/17/2013  5:35 PM
nixluva wrote:
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:The elephant in the room is Amare..He can't play and his contract is killing our chances to add a player to compete at the next level..U can't ignore that...

you also can't ignore that melo could have played out his contract in denver and come here as a free agent. if denver tries to trade him to the nets then guess what the knicks continue to build and do an upgrade at a position of need: point guard. felton simply doesn't cut it. he's scrub material. no shame in that.

you really should re-read the posts i made in the thread you resurrected. they are quite prescient and insightful.

It was your call that the Knicks could finish 7th in the East, and that Felton would not help the Knicks, and u call this insightful???

so you are going back to this one? okay. if i said they were a 7th seed before the season started then okay fine that's what i said. then they ended up getting the second seed... only to get destroyed as though they were a 7th seed all along. so my pre-season prediction of 7th seed-- if i even made such a prediction-- proved correct where the rubber meets the road.

what i remember saying at some point in the second half of the season was that if they were not going to get it together they could easily slip to 7th seed because the standings at that juncture were so tight, like 2nd-7th were separated by only 3 games or so.

this season i predict 43-47 wins, unless they implode, in which case 37 wins is a distinct likelihood.

there is weak leadership, potential factions, and not enough cohesion or defense.


You have no proof that their is weak leadership, only your opinion. It's hard to even quantify how much of an impact any leader has on a given team. IMO there are only a very few truly great leaders that have a major impact on their team.

You have no proof of factions or a lack of cohesion. Last year the team had great chemistry and they all seem to get along very well. We don't know what the defense will be like this year. Last year they were middle of the pack on D, but it's possible that they will actually improve defensively. We have to see how that plays out, but there's no reason to expect that they will definitely not have enough defense.

so who is/are the leader/s?
how can there be great chemistry when one guy has a 35% usage rate and does not make assists or really actually pass the ball?

knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%
StarksEwing1
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10/17/2013  5:59 PM
nixluva wrote:
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:The elephant in the room is Amare..He can't play and his contract is killing our chances to add a player to compete at the next level..U can't ignore that...

you also can't ignore that melo could have played out his contract in denver and come here as a free agent. if denver tries to trade him to the nets then guess what the knicks continue to build and do an upgrade at a position of need: point guard. felton simply doesn't cut it. he's scrub material. no shame in that.

you really should re-read the posts i made in the thread you resurrected. they are quite prescient and insightful.

It was your call that the Knicks could finish 7th in the East, and that Felton would not help the Knicks, and u call this insightful???

so you are going back to this one? okay. if i said they were a 7th seed before the season started then okay fine that's what i said. then they ended up getting the second seed... only to get destroyed as though they were a 7th seed all along. so my pre-season prediction of 7th seed-- if i even made such a prediction-- proved correct where the rubber meets the road.

what i remember saying at some point in the second half of the season was that if they were not going to get it together they could easily slip to 7th seed because the standings at that juncture were so tight, like 2nd-7th were separated by only 3 games or so.

this season i predict 43-47 wins, unless they implode, in which case 37 wins is a distinct likelihood.

there is weak leadership, potential factions, and not enough cohesion or defense.


You have no proof that their is weak leadership, only your opinion. It's hard to even quantify how much of an impact any leader has on a given team. IMO there are only a very few truly great leaders that have a major impact on their team.

You have no proof of factions or a lack of cohesion. Last year the team had great chemistry and they all seem to get along very well. We don't know what the defense will be like this year. Last year they were middle of the pack on D, but it's possible that they will actually improve defensively. We have to see how that plays out, but there's no reason to expect that they will definitely not have enough defense.

Teams like the bulls indy and nets have better depth in the frontcourt as well as better defense to be fair. Indy and teh Bulls also have their top players(Rose and Granger) coming back.
nixluva
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10/17/2013  6:59 PM
StarksEwing1 wrote:
nixluva wrote:
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:The elephant in the room is Amare..He can't play and his contract is killing our chances to add a player to compete at the next level..U can't ignore that...

you also can't ignore that melo could have played out his contract in denver and come here as a free agent. if denver tries to trade him to the nets then guess what the knicks continue to build and do an upgrade at a position of need: point guard. felton simply doesn't cut it. he's scrub material. no shame in that.

you really should re-read the posts i made in the thread you resurrected. they are quite prescient and insightful.

It was your call that the Knicks could finish 7th in the East, and that Felton would not help the Knicks, and u call this insightful???

so you are going back to this one? okay. if i said they were a 7th seed before the season started then okay fine that's what i said. then they ended up getting the second seed... only to get destroyed as though they were a 7th seed all along. so my pre-season prediction of 7th seed-- if i even made such a prediction-- proved correct where the rubber meets the road.

what i remember saying at some point in the second half of the season was that if they were not going to get it together they could easily slip to 7th seed because the standings at that juncture were so tight, like 2nd-7th were separated by only 3 games or so.

this season i predict 43-47 wins, unless they implode, in which case 37 wins is a distinct likelihood.

there is weak leadership, potential factions, and not enough cohesion or defense.


You have no proof that their is weak leadership, only your opinion. It's hard to even quantify how much of an impact any leader has on a given team. IMO there are only a very few truly great leaders that have a major impact on their team.

You have no proof of factions or a lack of cohesion. Last year the team had great chemistry and they all seem to get along very well. We don't know what the defense will be like this year. Last year they were middle of the pack on D, but it's possible that they will actually improve defensively. We have to see how that plays out, but there's no reason to expect that they will definitely not have enough defense.

Teams like the bulls indy and nets have better depth in the frontcourt as well as better defense to be fair. Indy and teh Bulls also have their top players(Rose and Granger) coming back.

Can't agree that the Nets have better D. Clearly the Bulls and Indy are top flight defensive teams. I think the Knicks can put much better defensive unit on the floor this year with Shump, MWP, KMart and Tyson.

Rose is a beast, but Granger IMO is not in the same class. I'm not that concerned with Granger.
In the end I think the additions of Rose and Granger only help them keep pace with the Knicks in this offensive arms race. The Knicks were superior offensively to both teams and now have even more Versatility, youth and offensive power. Plus that offensive improvement on the Knicks actually comes at more positions. It's not concentrated in one guy coming back. I think these teams will all be good, but the Knicks were at #3 offensive efficiency last year. I would guess they'll still be top 5, but i'm not sure either the Bulls or Pacers will be better than them offensively.

For the Knicks it's just not as sexy. We aren't talking about a player as good as Rose or respected as Granger, but overall the moves the Knicks made are substantial. I think the top of the East is gonna be a dog fight all year. I just don't think the Knicks are somehow at the bottom of that mix. I think they'll be right in the middle of it. I think the difference in these teams is almost negligible. Bulls n Pacers better on D and Knicks better on O.

dk7th
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10/17/2013  7:24 PM
http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=43156&page=2

while searching-- in vain-- for the smoking gun of my 7th seed prediction, here is some good material i gleaned from early in the season last year:


"sorry but unless melo cuts back on the ill-advised shots-- i counted at least 4 or 5 last night-- it's going to be tough for the knicks to excel beyond the first round. the flipside of the ill-advised shots: passing out of converging doubles. he did it a few times but you just knew he could not sustain that focus and poise-- his habit is to get shot happy and that isn't going to fly. 7-16 but 1-6 from 3 = shot happy. good news is he is finally defending with some heart and he seems to be finishing at the rim better than i remember him ever as a knickerbocker. here is a key stat: 54.4% true shooting through 3 games. this is below average for a great scorer. it needs to be a whole lot closer to 60% if he is going truly help the team win in the playoffs. PLAYOFFS"

"on defense you're preaching to the choir. don't have much patience for the +/- stat to be honest. what's it good for? no doubt the way melo handles himself on defense has a trickle-down effect-- that is one mark of a leader... how he plays defense and makes hustle plays.
but you can't at the same time tell me that bad shot selection doesn't also have a trickle-down effect. eventually poor shots undermine cohesion and focus. we are looking at three games at the beginning of the season, not 3 games against a second round playoff team.
all of our focus on this team should be informed by how well they look as a strong second-round playoff team."

"i see the same frustrating pattern and i don't see lazy, i see a lack of poise, patience, and craftiness. he gets all jacked up-- the broadcasters called them "adrenaline shots"-- with his short-term success and decides to throw his game and the game out the window.
but look we can all agree that he's attacking and finishing better, he is playing some honest defense, and he is making hustle plays... so i give him credit for that. but come playoff time he has got to cut down completely on the adrenaline shots and be prepared to pass out of whatever double teams come his way and every time. dirk did it and look what happened. no question his shot selection has been his achilles heel, among other things, his entire career. i look at his mediocre TS% as a clear manifestation of this. dude has to not take more than 2 of these 3-pointers a game while driving and getting to the line more. people don't want to admit it but melo's footwork as he tries to get to the basket is not good. jab step is not footwork. taking two "power dribbles" and trying to finish is not footwork either. and i am not talking about back to the basket post stuff either, which frankly he is not bad at. it's the stuff we see with him going iso from 22 feet where his footwork leaves a lot to be desired. still i admit i am pleased somewhat with his first three games but everything i see with him and this team is through a filter in the form of the question "does melo and does this team play like an ECF team?""

dk7th what are cautious about?

"1) the age of the team and the length of the season as driving up the odds of injury
2) regression into bad habits that have characterized the games of felton, smith, and melo in the past
up until last night's game i was not all that smitten with the team, and there is a loooong way to go yet. but to beat a full-strength spurs squad the way they did-- ie not THAT they won but HOW they won-- is definitely a positive litmus test.
like tkf said they have to earn my fandom and last night's game went a ways in that direction.
one more thing-- playing in the playoffs means teams will have time to game plan and adjust much more than during the regular season. so a sign of a good team other than great defense is its versatility and unpredictability. if we keep winning in this way that will be a very good sign for future success."

knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%
holfresh
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10/17/2013  7:43 PM
dk7th wrote:http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=43156&page=2

while searching-- in vain-- for the smoking gun of my 7th seed prediction, here is some good material i gleaned from early in the season last year:


"sorry but unless melo cuts back on the ill-advised shots-- i counted at least 4 or 5 last night-- it's going to be tough for the knicks to excel beyond the first round. the flipside of the ill-advised shots: passing out of converging doubles. he did it a few times but you just knew he could not sustain that focus and poise-- his habit is to get shot happy and that isn't going to fly. 7-16 but 1-6 from 3 = shot happy. good news is he is finally defending with some heart and he seems to be finishing at the rim better than i remember him ever as a knickerbocker. here is a key stat: 54.4% true shooting through 3 games. this is below average for a great scorer. it needs to be a whole lot closer to 60% if he is going truly help the team win in the playoffs. PLAYOFFS"

"on defense you're preaching to the choir. don't have much patience for the +/- stat to be honest. what's it good for? no doubt the way melo handles himself on defense has a trickle-down effect-- that is one mark of a leader... how he plays defense and makes hustle plays.
but you can't at the same time tell me that bad shot selection doesn't also have a trickle-down effect. eventually poor shots undermine cohesion and focus. we are looking at three games at the beginning of the season, not 3 games against a second round playoff team.
all of our focus on this team should be informed by how well they look as a strong second-round playoff team."

"i see the same frustrating pattern and i don't see lazy, i see a lack of poise, patience, and craftiness. he gets all jacked up-- the broadcasters called them "adrenaline shots"-- with his short-term success and decides to throw his game and the game out the window.
but look we can all agree that he's attacking and finishing better, he is playing some honest defense, and he is making hustle plays... so i give him credit for that. but come playoff time he has got to cut down completely on the adrenaline shots and be prepared to pass out of whatever double teams come his way and every time. dirk did it and look what happened. no question his shot selection has been his achilles heel, among other things, his entire career. i look at his mediocre TS% as a clear manifestation of this. dude has to not take more than 2 of these 3-pointers a game while driving and getting to the line more. people don't want to admit it but melo's footwork as he tries to get to the basket is not good. jab step is not footwork. taking two "power dribbles" and trying to finish is not footwork either. and i am not talking about back to the basket post stuff either, which frankly he is not bad at. it's the stuff we see with him going iso from 22 feet where his footwork leaves a lot to be desired. still i admit i am pleased somewhat with his first three games but everything i see with him and this team is through a filter in the form of the question "does melo and does this team play like an ECF team?""

dk7th what are cautious about?

"1) the age of the team and the length of the season as driving up the odds of injury
2) regression into bad habits that have characterized the games of felton, smith, and melo in the past
up until last night's game i was not all that smitten with the team, and there is a loooong way to go yet. but to beat a full-strength spurs squad the way they did-- ie not THAT they won but HOW they won-- is definitely a positive litmus test.
like tkf said they have to earn my fandom and last night's game went a ways in that direction.
one more thing-- playing in the playoffs means teams will have time to game plan and adjust much more than during the regular season. so a sign of a good team other than great defense is its versatility and unpredictability. if we keep winning in this way that will be a very good sign for future success."

I just stated earlier that u said it in this tread on page 2...I pointed it out a few times but u seem to be ignoring it...Again, scroll back a few conversations and I have your direct quote or u could look at the bottom of page two of this tread...Or u could ignore this reply too...

Bonn1997
Posts: 58654
Alba Posts: 2
Joined: 2/2/2004
Member: #581
USA
10/17/2013  8:30 PM
holfresh wrote:
dk7th wrote:http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=43156&page=2

while searching-- in vain-- for the smoking gun of my 7th seed prediction, here is some good material i gleaned from early in the season last year:


"sorry but unless melo cuts back on the ill-advised shots-- i counted at least 4 or 5 last night-- it's going to be tough for the knicks to excel beyond the first round. the flipside of the ill-advised shots: passing out of converging doubles. he did it a few times but you just knew he could not sustain that focus and poise-- his habit is to get shot happy and that isn't going to fly. 7-16 but 1-6 from 3 = shot happy. good news is he is finally defending with some heart and he seems to be finishing at the rim better than i remember him ever as a knickerbocker. here is a key stat: 54.4% true shooting through 3 games. this is below average for a great scorer. it needs to be a whole lot closer to 60% if he is going truly help the team win in the playoffs. PLAYOFFS"

"on defense you're preaching to the choir. don't have much patience for the +/- stat to be honest. what's it good for? no doubt the way melo handles himself on defense has a trickle-down effect-- that is one mark of a leader... how he plays defense and makes hustle plays.
but you can't at the same time tell me that bad shot selection doesn't also have a trickle-down effect. eventually poor shots undermine cohesion and focus. we are looking at three games at the beginning of the season, not 3 games against a second round playoff team.
all of our focus on this team should be informed by how well they look as a strong second-round playoff team."

"i see the same frustrating pattern and i don't see lazy, i see a lack of poise, patience, and craftiness. he gets all jacked up-- the broadcasters called them "adrenaline shots"-- with his short-term success and decides to throw his game and the game out the window.
but look we can all agree that he's attacking and finishing better, he is playing some honest defense, and he is making hustle plays... so i give him credit for that. but come playoff time he has got to cut down completely on the adrenaline shots and be prepared to pass out of whatever double teams come his way and every time. dirk did it and look what happened. no question his shot selection has been his achilles heel, among other things, his entire career. i look at his mediocre TS% as a clear manifestation of this. dude has to not take more than 2 of these 3-pointers a game while driving and getting to the line more. people don't want to admit it but melo's footwork as he tries to get to the basket is not good. jab step is not footwork. taking two "power dribbles" and trying to finish is not footwork either. and i am not talking about back to the basket post stuff either, which frankly he is not bad at. it's the stuff we see with him going iso from 22 feet where his footwork leaves a lot to be desired. still i admit i am pleased somewhat with his first three games but everything i see with him and this team is through a filter in the form of the question "does melo and does this team play like an ECF team?""

dk7th what are cautious about?

"1) the age of the team and the length of the season as driving up the odds of injury
2) regression into bad habits that have characterized the games of felton, smith, and melo in the past
up until last night's game i was not all that smitten with the team, and there is a loooong way to go yet. but to beat a full-strength spurs squad the way they did-- ie not THAT they won but HOW they won-- is definitely a positive litmus test.
like tkf said they have to earn my fandom and last night's game went a ways in that direction.
one more thing-- playing in the playoffs means teams will have time to game plan and adjust much more than during the regular season. so a sign of a good team other than great defense is its versatility and unpredictability. if we keep winning in this way that will be a very good sign for future success."

I just stated earlier that u said it in this tread on page 2...I pointed it out a few times but u seem to be ignoring it...Again, scroll back a few conversations and I have your direct quote or u could look at the bottom of page two of this tread...Or u could ignore this reply too...

I haven't followed this discussion very closely but it looks like you switched years. First you were claiming he had predicted 7th seed last season but as evidence for that claim you're citing the fact that he thinks 7th seed is possible this season.

holfresh
Posts: 38679
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 1/14/2006
Member: #1081

10/17/2013  8:34 PM    LAST EDITED: 10/17/2013  8:37 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
dk7th wrote:http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=43156&page=2

while searching-- in vain-- for the smoking gun of my 7th seed prediction, here is some good material i gleaned from early in the season last year:


"sorry but unless melo cuts back on the ill-advised shots-- i counted at least 4 or 5 last night-- it's going to be tough for the knicks to excel beyond the first round. the flipside of the ill-advised shots: passing out of converging doubles. he did it a few times but you just knew he could not sustain that focus and poise-- his habit is to get shot happy and that isn't going to fly. 7-16 but 1-6 from 3 = shot happy. good news is he is finally defending with some heart and he seems to be finishing at the rim better than i remember him ever as a knickerbocker. here is a key stat: 54.4% true shooting through 3 games. this is below average for a great scorer. it needs to be a whole lot closer to 60% if he is going truly help the team win in the playoffs. PLAYOFFS"

"on defense you're preaching to the choir. don't have much patience for the +/- stat to be honest. what's it good for? no doubt the way melo handles himself on defense has a trickle-down effect-- that is one mark of a leader... how he plays defense and makes hustle plays.
but you can't at the same time tell me that bad shot selection doesn't also have a trickle-down effect. eventually poor shots undermine cohesion and focus. we are looking at three games at the beginning of the season, not 3 games against a second round playoff team.
all of our focus on this team should be informed by how well they look as a strong second-round playoff team."

"i see the same frustrating pattern and i don't see lazy, i see a lack of poise, patience, and craftiness. he gets all jacked up-- the broadcasters called them "adrenaline shots"-- with his short-term success and decides to throw his game and the game out the window.
but look we can all agree that he's attacking and finishing better, he is playing some honest defense, and he is making hustle plays... so i give him credit for that. but come playoff time he has got to cut down completely on the adrenaline shots and be prepared to pass out of whatever double teams come his way and every time. dirk did it and look what happened. no question his shot selection has been his achilles heel, among other things, his entire career. i look at his mediocre TS% as a clear manifestation of this. dude has to not take more than 2 of these 3-pointers a game while driving and getting to the line more. people don't want to admit it but melo's footwork as he tries to get to the basket is not good. jab step is not footwork. taking two "power dribbles" and trying to finish is not footwork either. and i am not talking about back to the basket post stuff either, which frankly he is not bad at. it's the stuff we see with him going iso from 22 feet where his footwork leaves a lot to be desired. still i admit i am pleased somewhat with his first three games but everything i see with him and this team is through a filter in the form of the question "does melo and does this team play like an ECF team?""

dk7th what are cautious about?

"1) the age of the team and the length of the season as driving up the odds of injury
2) regression into bad habits that have characterized the games of felton, smith, and melo in the past
up until last night's game i was not all that smitten with the team, and there is a loooong way to go yet. but to beat a full-strength spurs squad the way they did-- ie not THAT they won but HOW they won-- is definitely a positive litmus test.
like tkf said they have to earn my fandom and last night's game went a ways in that direction.
one more thing-- playing in the playoffs means teams will have time to game plan and adjust much more than during the regular season. so a sign of a good team other than great defense is its versatility and unpredictability. if we keep winning in this way that will be a very good sign for future success."

I just stated earlier that u said it in this tread on page 2...I pointed it out a few times but u seem to be ignoring it...Again, scroll back a few conversations and I have your direct quote or u could look at the bottom of page two of this tread...Or u could ignore this reply too...

I haven't followed this discussion very closely but it looks like you switched years. First you were claiming he had predicted 7th seed last season but as evidence for that claim you're citing the fact that he thinks 7th seed is possible this season.

Where did u see me say that for this season??..The evidence I presented is from last season which I got from the very thread..Which is the reason I bumped it...

dk7th
Posts: 30006
Alba Posts: 1
Joined: 5/14/2012
Member: #4228
USA
10/17/2013  8:39 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
dk7th wrote:http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=43156&page=2

while searching-- in vain-- for the smoking gun of my 7th seed prediction, here is some good material i gleaned from early in the season last year:


"sorry but unless melo cuts back on the ill-advised shots-- i counted at least 4 or 5 last night-- it's going to be tough for the knicks to excel beyond the first round. the flipside of the ill-advised shots: passing out of converging doubles. he did it a few times but you just knew he could not sustain that focus and poise-- his habit is to get shot happy and that isn't going to fly. 7-16 but 1-6 from 3 = shot happy. good news is he is finally defending with some heart and he seems to be finishing at the rim better than i remember him ever as a knickerbocker. here is a key stat: 54.4% true shooting through 3 games. this is below average for a great scorer. it needs to be a whole lot closer to 60% if he is going truly help the team win in the playoffs. PLAYOFFS"

"on defense you're preaching to the choir. don't have much patience for the +/- stat to be honest. what's it good for? no doubt the way melo handles himself on defense has a trickle-down effect-- that is one mark of a leader... how he plays defense and makes hustle plays.
but you can't at the same time tell me that bad shot selection doesn't also have a trickle-down effect. eventually poor shots undermine cohesion and focus. we are looking at three games at the beginning of the season, not 3 games against a second round playoff team.
all of our focus on this team should be informed by how well they look as a strong second-round playoff team."

"i see the same frustrating pattern and i don't see lazy, i see a lack of poise, patience, and craftiness. he gets all jacked up-- the broadcasters called them "adrenaline shots"-- with his short-term success and decides to throw his game and the game out the window.
but look we can all agree that he's attacking and finishing better, he is playing some honest defense, and he is making hustle plays... so i give him credit for that. but come playoff time he has got to cut down completely on the adrenaline shots and be prepared to pass out of whatever double teams come his way and every time. dirk did it and look what happened. no question his shot selection has been his achilles heel, among other things, his entire career. i look at his mediocre TS% as a clear manifestation of this. dude has to not take more than 2 of these 3-pointers a game while driving and getting to the line more. people don't want to admit it but melo's footwork as he tries to get to the basket is not good. jab step is not footwork. taking two "power dribbles" and trying to finish is not footwork either. and i am not talking about back to the basket post stuff either, which frankly he is not bad at. it's the stuff we see with him going iso from 22 feet where his footwork leaves a lot to be desired. still i admit i am pleased somewhat with his first three games but everything i see with him and this team is through a filter in the form of the question "does melo and does this team play like an ECF team?""

dk7th what are cautious about?

"1) the age of the team and the length of the season as driving up the odds of injury
2) regression into bad habits that have characterized the games of felton, smith, and melo in the past
up until last night's game i was not all that smitten with the team, and there is a loooong way to go yet. but to beat a full-strength spurs squad the way they did-- ie not THAT they won but HOW they won-- is definitely a positive litmus test.
like tkf said they have to earn my fandom and last night's game went a ways in that direction.
one more thing-- playing in the playoffs means teams will have time to game plan and adjust much more than during the regular season. so a sign of a good team other than great defense is its versatility and unpredictability. if we keep winning in this way that will be a very good sign for future success."

I just stated earlier that u said it in this tread on page 2...I pointed it out a few times but u seem to be ignoring it...Again, scroll back a few conversations and I have your direct quote or u could look at the bottom of page two of this tread...Or u could ignore this reply too...

I haven't followed this discussion very closely but it looks like you switched years. First you were claiming he had predicted 7th seed last season but as evidence for that claim you're citing the fact that he thinks 7th seed is possible this season.

bonn-- holfresh resurrected this thread that was started a year ago. he is referring to the following post i wrote:

"doesn't matter what the record is. it's the top 3 seeds that matter. are they a top 3 seed in the east?
new york is going to have to get a higher seeding than any of the top 3 seeds from last year--
Miami
Boston
Indiana
This is plausible but not likely.
Philadelphia
New Jersey
Chicago
Question marks as big the Knicks but no doubt in the running.
I don't see any other team that really matters here.
Conclusion is that the Knicks are anywhere between a 3rd and a 7th seed, 3rd if you're an outright optimist."

from this he and other posters claim that i predicted a 7th seed. well, did i? and did they play like a top 3 seed when the playoffs arrived? or did they play closer to the level of a 6-7 seed?

other notes: had rondo not gotten hurt, the celtics would have been a top 3 seed. can't predict injury.

knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%
holfresh
Posts: 38679
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 1/14/2006
Member: #1081

10/17/2013  8:48 PM    LAST EDITED: 10/17/2013  9:11 PM
dk7th wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
dk7th wrote:http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=43156&page=2

while searching-- in vain-- for the smoking gun of my 7th seed prediction, here is some good material i gleaned from early in the season last year:


"sorry but unless melo cuts back on the ill-advised shots-- i counted at least 4 or 5 last night-- it's going to be tough for the knicks to excel beyond the first round. the flipside of the ill-advised shots: passing out of converging doubles. he did it a few times but you just knew he could not sustain that focus and poise-- his habit is to get shot happy and that isn't going to fly. 7-16 but 1-6 from 3 = shot happy. good news is he is finally defending with some heart and he seems to be finishing at the rim better than i remember him ever as a knickerbocker. here is a key stat: 54.4% true shooting through 3 games. this is below average for a great scorer. it needs to be a whole lot closer to 60% if he is going truly help the team win in the playoffs. PLAYOFFS"

"on defense you're preaching to the choir. don't have much patience for the +/- stat to be honest. what's it good for? no doubt the way melo handles himself on defense has a trickle-down effect-- that is one mark of a leader... how he plays defense and makes hustle plays.
but you can't at the same time tell me that bad shot selection doesn't also have a trickle-down effect. eventually poor shots undermine cohesion and focus. we are looking at three games at the beginning of the season, not 3 games against a second round playoff team.
all of our focus on this team should be informed by how well they look as a strong second-round playoff team."

"i see the same frustrating pattern and i don't see lazy, i see a lack of poise, patience, and craftiness. he gets all jacked up-- the broadcasters called them "adrenaline shots"-- with his short-term success and decides to throw his game and the game out the window.
but look we can all agree that he's attacking and finishing better, he is playing some honest defense, and he is making hustle plays... so i give him credit for that. but come playoff time he has got to cut down completely on the adrenaline shots and be prepared to pass out of whatever double teams come his way and every time. dirk did it and look what happened. no question his shot selection has been his achilles heel, among other things, his entire career. i look at his mediocre TS% as a clear manifestation of this. dude has to not take more than 2 of these 3-pointers a game while driving and getting to the line more. people don't want to admit it but melo's footwork as he tries to get to the basket is not good. jab step is not footwork. taking two "power dribbles" and trying to finish is not footwork either. and i am not talking about back to the basket post stuff either, which frankly he is not bad at. it's the stuff we see with him going iso from 22 feet where his footwork leaves a lot to be desired. still i admit i am pleased somewhat with his first three games but everything i see with him and this team is through a filter in the form of the question "does melo and does this team play like an ECF team?""

dk7th what are cautious about?

"1) the age of the team and the length of the season as driving up the odds of injury
2) regression into bad habits that have characterized the games of felton, smith, and melo in the past
up until last night's game i was not all that smitten with the team, and there is a loooong way to go yet. but to beat a full-strength spurs squad the way they did-- ie not THAT they won but HOW they won-- is definitely a positive litmus test.
like tkf said they have to earn my fandom and last night's game went a ways in that direction.
one more thing-- playing in the playoffs means teams will have time to game plan and adjust much more than during the regular season. so a sign of a good team other than great defense is its versatility and unpredictability. if we keep winning in this way that will be a very good sign for future success."

I just stated earlier that u said it in this tread on page 2...I pointed it out a few times but u seem to be ignoring it...Again, scroll back a few conversations and I have your direct quote or u could look at the bottom of page two of this tread...Or u could ignore this reply too...

I haven't followed this discussion very closely but it looks like you switched years. First you were claiming he had predicted 7th seed last season but as evidence for that claim you're citing the fact that he thinks 7th seed is possible this season.

bonn-- holfresh resurrected this thread that was started a year ago. he is referring to the following post i wrote:

"doesn't matter what the record is. it's the top 3 seeds that matter. are they a top 3 seed in the east?
new york is going to have to get a higher seeding than any of the top 3 seeds from last year--
Miami
Boston
Indiana
This is plausible but not likely.
Philadelphia
New Jersey
Chicago
Question marks as big the Knicks but no doubt in the running.
I don't see any other team that really matters here.
Conclusion is that the Knicks are anywhere between a 3rd and a 7th seed, 3rd if you're an outright optimist."

from this he and other posters claim that i predicted a 7th seed. well, did i? and did they play like a top 3 seed when the playoffs arrived? or did they play closer to the level of a 6-7 seed?

other notes: had rondo not gotten hurt, the celtics would have been a top 3 seed. can't predict injury.

And if Amare, Shumpert, Melo, Kidd, Felton, Sheed, Camby, and Chandler didn't get hurt, then what ??

holfresh
Posts: 38679
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 1/14/2006
Member: #1081

10/17/2013  8:53 PM
Boston had 21-23 record when Rondo tore his ACL..They were the eight seed in the conference at the time..Maybe u were predicting a big run for them??..Your prediction track record ain't that good..
Hollinger Knicks preview: 50 wins baby!

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