tom, how would you describe steph's performance yesterday by watching him on tv?

i thought he's been a rock for us since the debacle in the 2nd half of portland but i also feel he's still trying to fit into a role that he's really not suited for. is that all his fault? nope. lb has his vision for this team and he's trying to get these guys to fit that vision. hopefully steph can fit in.

Blueseats, you're right about critiques of Marbury's D. Certainly it left much to be desired last season. For present purposes though I am particularly interested in Marbury's offensive performance in the clutch, as that is what seems to be drawing strong criticisms from some posters recently. Also, again, couterpart PER is not a great measure of defense. There are better measures but they are more difficult to calculate and use.

Some critiques about the stats available at Blueseats' link: I'd like to see *adjusted* +/- numbers for the players involved, particularly to evaluate defensive impact. It also would be nice to be able to break down clutch stats even further, say to stats with 2 minutes left and the score differential no greater than 5.

But with what we have available, it looks like Marbury did not fair nearly as poorly last season in the clutch as some claim, at least in terms of individual offensive stats. Marbury raised his PER, got to the line, had great ball control, scored well on a per possession basis, and did not shy away from taking field goal attempts. All contrary to popular opinion. But again, I grant that critiques may be aimed more at something like stats with 2 minutes left instead of 5, so that would be something nice to see in the future.

Posted by tomverve:

Posted by djsunyc:

tom, how would you describe steph's performance yesterday by watching him on tv?

Overall? I thought he did a pretty nice job distributing the ball, and on a couple of plays his passing was superb. I was also impressed with his D at times-- a few times guarding Kobe he let Kobe get by him, but out of all our players I thought Marbury easily did the best job defending Kobe's jumper. He probably sublimated his offense too much last night though, I would've liked to have seen him take it to the rack more. He's looked good when he's played off the ball as a SG option with Craw running point, that's also something I'd like to see more of to get his offense going.

i thought marbs' defense on kobe was awesome. for the most part, he made him take fadeaway jumpers...problem is that kobe was hitting them. marbury to the SG, imho, is the only way for it to work here. until we see that for an extended period of time...these same discussions will keep popping up. and unfortunately, i hope we get a chance to see it sometime before he gets moved (if that's the case).

curiously missing in all thi discussion is NY's record and point differential.

thought I'd provide it:

11-32

-108

82games.com defines clutch situations as trailing by no more than 5 points with 5 miutes left.

NY was in 43 games last year up until crunchtime.

32 of NY's 49 losses last year came in the final 5 minutes

NY got outscored by 108 points in the final minutes of games.

82games.com attributes fg% on jumpshots for all players to the tightening of the D down the stretch.

Steph's strength is the drible-drive anyway so I compared his convertion rate with guards he was ranked hire than according to Hollingers clutch PER rating. Listed those players team records in close games as well.


Marbury's fg% on close shots down the stretch - 41%.

(unfortunately 82games.com updated the page to this years season b/4 I could copy and paste the url)

In comparison when AI drove he connected on 60% of his close attempts and Philly was +20 and had a 20-19 record in close games.

(didn't get AI's either)

Kobe when he drove 47% and LA was 21-17 in close games and LA was + 3.

http://www.82games.com/0506/05LAL6E.HTM

Steve Francis team was 26-20 despite being -18 (still nowhere near -108) and he connected on 48% of his fg's when he drove

http://www.82games.com/04ORL3E.HTM

if crunchtime is where the stars step up, Steph and his team in comparison stepped down.

season fg% 46. however during the last 5 minutes of the games he connected on only 34% of his jumpshots (63% of his total shots) and 41% (remaining 37% of his attempts) while driving. He had no tip-ins or dunks. Didn't get the ft% but from the fg% and team differential in points alone a couple of conclusions can be drawn:

Steph is a monster thru 3-3 1/2

Down the stretch NY became unraveled not only defensively but offensively as well. The offense becoming unglued can be attributed directly to poor point guard play and poor leaderhip.

[Edited by - McK1 on 11-17-2005 11:13 AM]

[Edited by - McK1 on 11-17-2005 11:17 AM]

Posted by McK1:

if crunchtime is where the stars step up, Steph and his team in comparison stepped down.

Unfortunately, I've just given pretty strong evidence that Marbury steps up in the clutch, at least in terms of individual offensive production, even after taking his poor eFG% into account. Concluding that a player plays poorly because his team plays poorly is bad logic.

Down the stretch NY became unraveled not only defensively but offensively as well. The offense becoming unglued can be attributed directly to poor point guard play and poor leaderhip.

There are plenty of things that could have contributed to poor team play down the stretch. Quality of 5 man units, coaching, etc. It is certainly possible for one player (yes, even a PG) to play well on the floor and for his team to play poorly, such that the team overall performs poorly. Team production is a confluence of the talents and competencies of five individual players at any given time on the court and their coaching. There are way too many factors that go into that to conclude something about one of the parts from the performance of the whole.

I think what those stats essentially support are the eyes of those who felt Marbury completed clutch time passes without turnovers, but mostly along the perimeter. And that he took a fair amount of shots, but also perimiter pops at low percentage.

Essentially Marbury shies away from the interior in the clutch, he stays on and feeds the perimeter for low percentage attempts. Don't let the #11 in FTA fool you, ball handlers often draw fouls on the perimeter from reach-ins and body-ups.

Mostly what we see (or, since most of this is based on last season, what we saw) was timidity and uncertainty. defenses can trap him on the perimeter, or pack the middle, both to good effect, and our offense goes east-west with little attacking of the basket. Too much dribbling at the arc, with late in the clock perimeter pops for others, or his own, often early in the clock, perimeter pops.

That said, the last 5 mins of games and OTs are a substantial portion of games. I think the problems many of us describe are exacerbated in the waning two or three minutes of games.

I don't know if those assessments can be backed by stats or not, and maybe they're all bunk, but I can tell you that with my honest subjectivity, I have little to no confidence in Steph to make the smart play at the end, whichever play that may be, and I feel he plays scared without 'attack' in his game.

I have to disagree with this, when given the opportunity marbs takes over games (see olympics with LB as coach), I think he's on the same page as LB, W's are not important as long as the team is getting better.

Benched? You say benched, I say rested.

Marbs has shown an ability to take over games when necessary, to say he has not been able to do this historically is false.

Posted by djsunyc:

no...you need a wing or perimeter player to take over the game when it counts.

steph historically has shown that he's not that player.

Intersting thread, interesting statistical analysis too. Marb's clutchness is not a concern fo rme at this point. As the other guys step up their level of play and confidence, I have faith that Marbs at the point, and LB at the helm, we will be a good team and pull out many close games. Kobe was unstoppable last night, and Marb was stoppable. Not really a big deal to me.

I wanna see how this whole thing develops, Marbury is just a piece of the puzzle.

Posted by tomverve:

Posted by BlueSeats:

Essentially Marbury shies away from the interior in the clutch, he stays on and feeds the perimeter for low percentage attempts.

See, this is why we need stats. Subjective judgments like this can just be wrong.

In 04/05 as a whole, Marbury attempted 63% of his FGAs on jumpers and 37% on inside FGAs:
http://82games.com/04NYK1A.HTM

In 04/05 in the clutch, Marbury attempted 63% of his FGAs on jumpers and 37% on inside FGAs:
http://82games.com/04NYK1E.HTM

His eFG% did drop of course for both kinds of FGAs, but I don't think that's uncommon for clutch time play. Particularly when the second best scoring option on your team is pre-Larry Brown Jamal Crawford, so the defense can hone in and collapse on you.

You may be using another sense of the word 'clutch' other than final 5 minutes; I've acknowledged it would be nice to see something like final 2 or 3 minute stats as well. We don't have those right now, but it's pretty clear that your evaluation of Marbs' play does not apply to the final 5 minutes of close games.

In order for your claim to be correct when applied over the final 2 or so minutes instead of the final 5, one of two things would have to be true:
1) Marbury attempts many more jumpers than usual in the final ~2 minutes, but attempts many more inside FGAs than usual in the ~3 minutes before that; or
2) Marbury's FGA overall drop to almost zero over the final ~2 minutes.

(1) is pretty much implausible, I think. (2) might be true, but I strongly doubt it.

[Edited by - tomverve on 11-17-2005 4:07 PM]

Good post, Tom.

I will concede that my memory of his clutch style isn't borne out by clutch stats as defined by 82games. However, it does appear that, under their definitions, while his play doesn't change much stylistically it does plummet in effectiveness.

I guess he just chokes.

Sorta like his career dropoff in offensive production in the post season.

Posted by McK1:

The Magic and Lakers had worse overall records yet they faired better in close games.

Who runs the offense? Who had the ball the majority of time? Steph.
NY's point differential in the last 5 minutes was -108. NY didn't get it done on either end.

The Magic played in just as many close games and had a - 20 point differential but had a winning record.

NY was 11-32!

who scores or keeps the other team from scoring more is the ultimate stat. NY was crap on the defensive end and the team stunk it up when they had the ball as well. This is where observation meets stats. Watching the games, Steph often was ineffective scoring or distributing down the stretch last season.

Not much of substance here. Yes, the Knicks as a team were awful in the clutch last season. No, we cannot conclude from that alone that any one player was awful in the clutch last season. In fact, I have already provided stats showing that Marbury increased his offensive production in the clutch. You have yet to address these counterpoints satisfactorily.

Posted by tomverve:

Posted by McK1:

The Magic and Lakers had worse overall records yet they faired better in close games.

Who runs the offense? Who had the ball the majority of time? Steph.
NY's point differential in the last 5 minutes was -108. NY didn't get it done on either end.

The Magic played in just as many close games and had a - 20 point differential but had a winning record.

NY was 11-32!

who scores or keeps the other team from scoring more is the ultimate stat. NY was crap on the defensive end and the team stunk it up when they had the ball as well. This is where observation meets stats. Watching the games, Steph often was ineffective scoring or distributing down the stretch last season.

Not much of substance here. Yes, the Knicks as a team were awful in the clutch last season. No, we cannot conclude from that alone that any one player was awful in the clutch last season. In fact, I have already provided stats showing that Marbury increased his offensive production in the clutch. You have yet to address these counterpoints satisfactorily.

hollingers PER doesn't show he increased his stats. 82games.com clutch play page shows a decrease in fg% ot only on jumpers but on driving/close shots as well. The Knicks scoring numbers (- 108) don't reflect this either.

there is some accountabilty for the point and assist leading player of a team whose point differential was - 108 especially when that figure is not inline with a team that is 11th in scoring shot 45% from the field and 80% from the freethrow line.

You post all these numbers and ignore what the ultimate goal of discussing how steph plays in the clutch is-

does his play secure the win?

he was the best player on last years team so ofcourse the responsibility for keeping his team competitive in the stretch run falls on his shoulders. In your world Steph shouldn't answer for 11-32 and a -108 point differential b/c his raw % numbers didn't deviate much.