newyorknewyork wrote:Mitch isn't an upside player. He pretty much is what he is. Will a team give starter money/role with the lack of upside and durability concerns in this cap environment?
2018-19: 66 games
2019-20: 61 games
2020-21: 31 games
2021-22: 72 games
2022-23: 59 games
2023-24: 31 games
2024-25: 17 games
2025-26: 60 games
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IIRC, the projected 2nd Apron is about 223 million. Given the Knicks are roughly, math in my head, about 4-5 million off of the 1st Apron already, that means signing MRob, to somewhere around his probable market value, even with a slight discount, would mean the team would be essentially forced to trade Josh Hart off the roster to stay under the 2nd Apron. Out of the main 5 core players, Hart is the most expendable from a winning standpoint and the player with the most options to shed his salary as fast as possible. Don't get me wrong, the Knicks would win more games with Hart than without him, it's just his loss would be relatively less brutal than losing any of Brunson, OG, KAT or Bridges.
Any chance of holding onto Diawara requires access to the Mid Level Exception. Once you breach the 2nd Apron, that flushes the MLE. In order to optimize if they breach the 2nd Apron, they will need to do what the Warriors did, which was have player like Payton II, Seth Curry, De'Anthony Melton and others waiting in the wings for minimum deals. I.E. lock in your ring chasers early.
Average out MRob's last three seasons. His trend line, especially with Thibs attrition on his resume, doesn't bode well for even baseline availability.
If someone is asking it's a tradeoff, then Yes, it's a trade off. The extent of the tradeoff grows or shrinks based on the matchup. If the Knicks get into the Finals next season, and it's OKC Thunder versus the Spurs, then they'll wish they had more wing depth compared to an expensive backup center. One of the X Factors no one talks about is a much better long range shooting team than the Spurs can begin to neutralize the impact of having an expensive backup center deployed against them, assuming that expensive backup is even healthy enough to play.
In the "Space And Pace" era, I don't think you can lean that much of your total cap into your pivots, especially when the backup cannot give you gravity and floor spacing. I'm not sure he can safely give you back to backs anymore either.
Even though mid 20s slotting is not totally brutal, the Knicks might need to start thinking of trading back out of the first round in the upcoming draft, if there's not a really coveted player in that range for them. IIRC, they have the 31st pick as well. So that's useful. Trading back or trading the pick for a veteran player for help in the back end of the rotation.
Something to consider is Clarkson, Shamet and McBride, aspects of their production was created by opportunity opened by Brunson, KAT and OG. Someone is going to get left open somewhere. Which means someone like Shamet looks good on the Knicks this season, but that's not the entire story. If the system is a floor raiser, then a plug and play type veteran player can also give you some production in that format. Maybe not to the same degree. But again, can you 70 percent of the production at 20-25 percent of the cost?
Knicks really need to avoid breaching the 2nd Apron if possible. This operates more than just if Dolan is willing to eat the money for the taxes. The impact is just crippling. And some aspects linger into your next season as well. What's unintentionally hilarious about this is the CBA changes to the 2nd Apron was really designed to kill the dynasty Warriors. Except the splash damage hurt every other team in the league anyway. Father Time killed the Warriors in due course, the league didn't need to change the rules. The stupid ownership of the Warriors killed them before the CBA did ( forcing the Wiseman pick, etc)
IMHO, the math doesn't add up on MRob. He's a nice luxury to have if you can afford it. But the Knicks can't afford it really ( Loss of flexibility is a bigger problem, that the Knicks are a "cash rich" team is irrelevant on this matter). Also, as stated, he's in a situation were he's tragically a "luxury" to attempt a repeat.