| Author | Thread |
| AUTOADVERT |
|
martin
Posts: 75991 Alba Posts: 108 Joined: 7/24/2001 Member: #2 USA |
2/28/2023 9:23 AM
Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL: Official sponsor of the PURE KNICKS LOVE Program
|
|
NYKMentality
Posts: 23995 Alba Posts: 1 Joined: 11/12/2012 Member: #4385 |
2/28/2023 10:17 AM
martin wrote:Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL: Previous 43 Games (since the benching of Cam Reddish for a 9 man Rotation). New York Knicks Boston Celtics And imo we've been playing even better basketball than Boston has because not only have we gone 2-0 against them (previous 43 Games) but NY's Strength of Schedule (SOS) has been much more difficult than Boston's Strength of Schedule (SOS) throughout our previous 43 Games. Boston announcers admitted it last night; "they do not want to see this Knicks team in the Playoffs". |
|
Knickoftime
Posts: 24159 Alba Posts: 0 Joined: 1/13/2011 Member: #3370 |
2/28/2023 12:16 PM
NYKMentality wrote:Knickoftime wrote:NYKMentality wrote: I'll be rooting for Miami to beat Philadelphia tonight because my goal (throughout the entire Regular Season) has been the #3 seed and a Knicks win vs. Boston + Philadelphia loss vs. Miami would = only 4.5 back of that 3rd seed.Up to a 1.1% chance! That's correct yes... And these are the new odds. https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html And they're not up to 2.6% chance to finish 3rd, which btw, as a Knicks fans I hope happens! Do me a favor. Not relevant. The simulations are based on ANYTHING to do before tip-off of game 1. And they are weighted to recent play. I still don't think you understand nobody is sitting in a room inputing their human perception of the New York Knicks. You somehow seem to be under the impression that methodology has a blindspot for a team getting hot at the right time. This is your error. And I guarantee you 1 million dollars (that I don't have) that none of those genius simulators EVER had the Knicks @ 9 games above .500 after only 63 games after 0-1, 9-11, 19-18 etc because I already know they didn't. Be glad you don't have 1 million dollars. Again, you both misunderstand and mischaracterize what we're talking about. You've immediately taken a pejorative stance towards the "genius" simulators as if they were people trying to do you wrong... which is immensely silly. But more to the point.... Closest archive available to the 19-18 mark - 21-18. The statistical probability (not opinion) at the time had the Knicks most often finishing 45-37, which they're most likely going to surpass (highest probability currently stands at a 47-35 finish). But, the models allowed for the Knicks to finish with as many of 55 wins and as few as 31, with their odds of finishing 3rd in the East actually higher than they are today, And again, I don't think you quite grasp it isn't trying to make a prediction, but calculate probability. Now, you're correct to note the Knicks are currently on a 6 game win streak. And I'm remind you that the 19-18 mark you reference was the start of a 4 game win streak, which followed a 5 game losing streak, which followed an 8 game winning streak. Knicks would have another 4 game losing streak a couple of weeks later. It is your OPINION the Knicks will not falter at all the rest of the way, and it's your opinion the Sixers can play below the level they've established over more than 3/4's of the season, and the simulations account for both of these possibilities. What they don't do is assume they will (and yes, the Sixers SOS IS calculated). Nothing is saying the Knicks catching the Sixers isn't possible. The math just makes it improbable. You're the only party adding pure speculation to this and not consistently. You want to cite the Sixers difficult schedule but at the same time ignore the Cavs relatively easy schedule by the same measure. And why? Because you WANT to. More importantly the simulations know the best indicator of team success more than 75% of the passing of a season is the previous 75%. Yes, the sixers AND the Cavs CAN get cold for the next 20 games, while the Knicks remain red hot. But NBA history works against that 3=pronged scenario. But again, I hope that happens. Knicks finishing 3rd would be awesome! |
