EwingsGlass wrote:

HofstraBBall wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

HofstraBBall wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

HofstraBBall wrote:

jskinny35 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

CashMoney wrote:Obi played 17 minutes per game last year up from 11 minutes per game in his rookie season. He positively developed from year 1 to year 2 so why can't he continue to improve his game while coming off the bench next season?

Teams need the talent to win and obviously, Tobi has talent. I don't see anything wrong with him getting increased minutes next season and continuing to improve his game which will improve the team's play.

Obi is the only true PF on the team besides Randle so how is having a developing young PF playing behind Randle a bad thing?

because emo Knick fans dont like grumpy pants Randle so he's gotta go so we need to manufacture a narrative to make that make sense. Everything is perfect. It will be really hard for Obi to get more minutes and it is what it is. If he's playing hot he hopefully get longer runs or play some small ball 4/5 with Randle but we have 3 centers and Thibs like's playing one of them.

Obi's got 2 more years under his rookie deal for us to see just how good he's gonna be.

Randle manufactured his own narrative by being a douche last season. Most fans will forgive the tantrums and the reduced poor shooting/performance - but not both at the same time. Be a headcase - but be so good that all is forgiven. Last season Randle was a a pain in the ass, behaved entitled and worst - did not hustle and support his teammates positively. So I wouldn't call that perfect and since we have a young PF that in limited minutes has shown decent production - he has earned more minutes which will not come at the expense of creating another problem (playing Randle and Toppin together as opposing forwards lick their chops). Even if Randle matched his prior stellar year - he's too iso-dominant and not good enough efficiency-wise to keep going with him and expect better results. Yes Brunson will help but will Randle in his 7th/8th year adjust and take a back seat and defer? To me, that is the only way I see a future with Randle starting that could work and I honestly don't think his pride/ego will allow him to do that. And I hope I'm wrong because I do think it's more likely he is the starting PF on opening day.

Why is it that Knick fans think that it would be good for Randle to "take a back seat"
How do you know that this approach will actually help the Knicks?
Who should he take a back seat to?
Don't fans really mean "give my hopeful" a chance? Then why not just say that?
Randle has produced EVERY YEAR??!
Why not, as a TRUE Knick fan just hope he shoots as well as he did his All Star year?
Seems like a better path then hoping we move on from him without a solid replacement or to give some hopeful, that has proven nothing, his spot now?

Define produced. You carry an old school mentality to players much like Thibs which is not to say that you must be wrong, but it seems to ignore the deeper metrics that I am staring at. I think we are both watching the same games and I do think Randle has value, but I think his value is primarily defensive. I admit that I hate midrange shots generally for their lack of eFG and specifically fadeaway type shots (and floaters) that have low probability of drawing a foul. When you look at Randle and see that 44% of his shots are midrange 2pt jumpers that he hits at about a 35-36% clip, I cannot get the ball out of his hands fast enough. Its a formula for losing basketball. Like him? Marry him, but him a beer, but don't let him take bad shots. Someone needs to educate him on how ineffective and inefficient his shot selection is. If he had Khris Middleton's shot chart, I'd have to re-consider giving him a pass, but he doesn't.

His 3pt percentage was even worse this year. He took 31% of his shots from 3 last year and his 30% of those 3s. Thing is, people think that 20/21's 41% from 3 is his real skill but if you look at him historically, that 41% is the outlier. If you have to throw out the high and the low season, his 22% from 3 season goes and his 41% from 3 season is gone. That leaves him with a career high of 34% from 3 and most seasons are sub-30. Will the real Randle please stand up? Unfortunately, 21-22 Randle is pretty accurate, except that he did worse in the paint that his career averages.

So, am I saying give my "hopeful" a chance? Sure. I'll use your words. Toppin = Hopeful = Give him a chance! Why? He takes nearly no midrange shots. He's behind the 3pt line shooting pretty poorly (needs work!!!) or at the basket dunking. I like this. It makes a pretty shot chart. And puts his eFG of 58%. Toward the end of the season with real minutes, he looked like he was getting comfortable. I can't promise that holds or that other teams don't adjust to him. Here, I am saying, give him a chance. His usage is 20% compared to Randle's 28%. Meaning, he adds value without necessarily having the ball in his hands. He sets up in the corner and tends to make baseline runs in the half court set and the kid loves to run on the fast break. If any player has the potential to benefit from Brunson showing up, its Toppin.

Grimes is a close second. Randle and Barrett will lose touches to Brunson. Both are relegated to the low eFG defense players that they look like, unless they can evolve what we saw last year.

Brunson/Grimes/Barrett/Toppin/Hart spreads a lot of floor and has a lot of eFG (except for Barrett, but I want to give the kid a chance to play with the amount of space this lineup creates vs letting Fournier poke holes in the defense.

So, what's the defense of Randle look like? 20/10 very inefficiently with Robinson boxing out so he can get the rebound?

Think the things you do not like about Randle are the same that I do not as well.

You are asking me to define Randle's production yet you think I should accept we should go with Toppin, who lacks any large sample size of ANY type of production? Or just "because you want him to have a chance", "takes no mid range shots", "shoots pretty poor from 3pt" range? And is a player "you can't promise that can play like he did in those few games at the end of the season"? Agree with the importance of how well someone will do when teams make adjustments. Feel other variables should be used to judge Randle's numbers as well. Randle has been our go to guy for the last three years. He has been who opposing teams focus on. Opposing teams have made constant adjustments for him. He draws constant double teams? Despite that, Randle still puts up double doubles.
So many are quick to put down Randle's stats with their own "advanced metrics" yet do not use simple metrics for other hopefuls or ignore variable such as the ones mentioned above to factor in their disapproval. I can respect that you said you want to see Toppin given a chance but just leave it at that instead of finding reasons to ignore Randle's well-known production and Obi's obvious shortcomings. Which also include defensive ability. I do not like Randle's usage. Do not like when he brings the ball up the floor. Think he can elevate his game so much by adding more assists to his game. HOWEVER, the guy is a beast and has been a consistent producer for years. And yes, 20/10 is solid no matter how you slice it. Unless you can point to the many others that are doing it on an annual click. Ones that are available and have all the other traits you claim Randle is lacking. Fans often put down their own and bring up so many things that player can't do. Ignoring that there have been few players in NBA history that have possessed all of the attributes they claim that player should have.

I am a Knick fan. And while I do not think Randle should be our number one or even our number 2. He is our best player right now. Obi is just a prospect who has only proven he can dunk and still can't shoot. No way do I want to see a Knick team without Randle and Obi as our starting PF.
Was also against the Frank and Knox dream and wanted Obi as our pick. If he surprises me that would be great. But like Knox and Frank. I am not blind. Think we are past the keep our fingers crossed for yoots. Think we should look to add solid perennial producers. And yes, Randle is one.

The double-double argument has no weight with me. Pretty much any player in Randle's place that got upward of 15 shot attempts per game can score 20pts per game. Rebounds I won't discount entirely but continue to point to Mitchell Robinson's box outs as a source of Randle's rebounds. Randle is an inefficient 20 point scorer.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced/?sort=EFG_PCT&dir=1&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&Season=2021-22&CF=FGA_PG*GE*15:POSS*GE*1000

In the attached link, you can see that out of players taking 15 shots per game, Randle is essentially the worst scorer in the league. He scores less points per shot taken than any other player that gets so many shots. Worse than Westbrick.

So, am I willing to start a young player that has been stuck behind Randle over Randle even though he doesn't have experience (because he was stuck behind Randle)? Yes. That's the only way to get him experience. It would be hard for Toppin to do worse than Randle but the key is that Toppin doesn't need to take those shots Randle was taking, its just that Randle shouldn't take those shots. That said, I think Toppin is better suited to accepting passes from Brunson and getting out of the way and hiding in the corner when he doesn't have the ball. I think he will mesh better with Brunson.

Once again, proving my point.
Don't Remember MR helping Randle with rebounding when he was on the Lakers and NO.
If you are using the above AStat then guess RJ should go as well.?
Let's look at the stats you are selectively using to make your point.
Of course let's ignore this stat is hampered if you are the main defensive target. Get double teamed. And only dunk when shooting.
If we look at the same criteria in 2020-21 you would have traded away Ja Morant, Anthony Edwards, Trae Young, Anthony Davis, Pascal Siakam and Demar DeRozan. All for guys that only score on alley oops and are afraid to shoot. Maybe Frank is available? Because I know Durant, Irving, Curry Greek Freak are not. Remember when I mentioned how fans love to put down their players without looking at other options or how many others actually have the qualities they are looking for?

Still waiting for the historical stat production of Obi, who you claim is a better option. And btw, still do not see the logic in using advanced stats for Randle but ignoring basic stat production for Obi. So won't just take your word for it that Obi is a better option.

Yeah, I think Barrett should take less bad shots as well. We were talking about Randle/Toppin so I didn't take the opportunity to slam RJ. RJ gets the "youth" and development pass for another season, but I would not pay him a max contract with his current numbers. I've posted on several occasions about Toppin vs Randle. His .581 eFG is solid and he is also "developing". I think with a good PG he is closer to a Shawn Marion type player and could really blossom next to Brunson. Randle has good skills, but settles for playing with his back to the basket 18 feet from the rim and has done a poor job of converting. He can be on this team, he just can't take those shots.

I know you are trying to zing me, but you kind of shot yourself in the foot. Not sure where you got your list from, but all of the folks you suggest are light years ahead of our guys in eFG.

Trae Young .536 eFG is among the best high volume, high eFG shooters in the league.
Ja Morant .530 eFG is also among the best high volume, high eFG shooters in the league.
Anthony Edwards .527 eFG. Not as high volume. No issues.
Anthony Davis .542 (actually, not as impressed as a big man, but still light years ahead of Randle)
Pascal Siakam .529 eFG
Demar Derozan .521 eFG.

Julius Randle .459 eFG.

Among high volume shooters, Randle is the worst in the league.

Zing? Not trying to zing anyone.
Just pointing out that using your logic for moving Randle would have resulted in several teams moving on from players I mentioned. Considering they were worse than Randle in usage a year prior.
So you see, maybe your usage stat is not one to focus on to evaluate anything.

Where did I get my list? Just use your link and put in same AStat for 20-21?
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced/?sort=EFG_PCT&dir=1&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&Season=2020-21&CF=FGA_PG*GE*15:POSS*GE*1000

GustavBahler wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:Are there stats that cover efficiency, with minutes factored in? So we can see who can and cant handle the minutes.

I knew you guys were making up all those numbers..lol.

Two of the top three players in the league minuteswise, is on the Knicks, last time I checked.

The rest of us wanna know if this type of convo happens with yourself IRL too

GustavBahler wrote:LOL, rarely quote myself.
(I agree! Dont know what Martin is talking about)

Anyway. Would be interesting to understand how giving some starters heavy minutes is affecting their performance, by the numbers. Maybe fewer minutes would increase their efficiency. Randle maybe.

martin wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:Are there stats that cover efficiency, with minutes factored in? So we can see who can and cant handle the minutes.

I knew you guys were making up all those numbers..lol.

Two of the top three players in the league minuteswise, is on the Knicks, last time I checked.

The rest of us wanna know if this type of convo happens with yourself IRL too

I have haven't seen splits for a player by minutes played. I have sorted game logs by minutes played for individuals. I did that in a Toppin thread to show that he does better in games that he gets more than 20 minutes or so.

HofstraBBall wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

HofstraBBall wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

HofstraBBall wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

HofstraBBall wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

HofstraBBall wrote:

jskinny35 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

CashMoney wrote:Obi played 17 minutes per game last year up from 11 minutes per game in his rookie season. He positively developed from year 1 to year 2 so why can't he continue to improve his game while coming off the bench next season?

Teams need the talent to win and obviously, Tobi has talent. I don't see anything wrong with him getting increased minutes next season and continuing to improve his game which will improve the team's play.

Obi is the only true PF on the team besides Randle so how is having a developing young PF playing behind Randle a bad thing?

because emo Knick fans dont like grumpy pants Randle so he's gotta go so we need to manufacture a narrative to make that make sense. Everything is perfect. It will be really hard for Obi to get more minutes and it is what it is. If he's playing hot he hopefully get longer runs or play some small ball 4/5 with Randle but we have 3 centers and Thibs like's playing one of them.

Obi's got 2 more years under his rookie deal for us to see just how good he's gonna be.

Randle manufactured his own narrative by being a douche last season. Most fans will forgive the tantrums and the reduced poor shooting/performance - but not both at the same time. Be a headcase - but be so good that all is forgiven. Last season Randle was a a pain in the ass, behaved entitled and worst - did not hustle and support his teammates positively. So I wouldn't call that perfect and since we have a young PF that in limited minutes has shown decent production - he has earned more minutes which will not come at the expense of creating another problem (playing Randle and Toppin together as opposing forwards lick their chops). Even if Randle matched his prior stellar year - he's too iso-dominant and not good enough efficiency-wise to keep going with him and expect better results. Yes Brunson will help but will Randle in his 7th/8th year adjust and take a back seat and defer? To me, that is the only way I see a future with Randle starting that could work and I honestly don't think his pride/ego will allow him to do that. And I hope I'm wrong because I do think it's more likely he is the starting PF on opening day.

Why is it that Knick fans think that it would be good for Randle to "take a back seat"
How do you know that this approach will actually help the Knicks?
Who should he take a back seat to?
Don't fans really mean "give my hopeful" a chance? Then why not just say that?
Randle has produced EVERY YEAR??!
Why not, as a TRUE Knick fan just hope he shoots as well as he did his All Star year?
Seems like a better path then hoping we move on from him without a solid replacement or to give some hopeful, that has proven nothing, his spot now?

Define produced. You carry an old school mentality to players much like Thibs which is not to say that you must be wrong, but it seems to ignore the deeper metrics that I am staring at. I think we are both watching the same games and I do think Randle has value, but I think his value is primarily defensive. I admit that I hate midrange shots generally for their lack of eFG and specifically fadeaway type shots (and floaters) that have low probability of drawing a foul. When you look at Randle and see that 44% of his shots are midrange 2pt jumpers that he hits at about a 35-36% clip, I cannot get the ball out of his hands fast enough. Its a formula for losing basketball. Like him? Marry him, but him a beer, but don't let him take bad shots. Someone needs to educate him on how ineffective and inefficient his shot selection is. If he had Khris Middleton's shot chart, I'd have to re-consider giving him a pass, but he doesn't.

His 3pt percentage was even worse this year. He took 31% of his shots from 3 last year and his 30% of those 3s. Thing is, people think that 20/21's 41% from 3 is his real skill but if you look at him historically, that 41% is the outlier. If you have to throw out the high and the low season, his 22% from 3 season goes and his 41% from 3 season is gone. That leaves him with a career high of 34% from 3 and most seasons are sub-30. Will the real Randle please stand up? Unfortunately, 21-22 Randle is pretty accurate, except that he did worse in the paint that his career averages.

So, am I saying give my "hopeful" a chance? Sure. I'll use your words. Toppin = Hopeful = Give him a chance! Why? He takes nearly no midrange shots. He's behind the 3pt line shooting pretty poorly (needs work!!!) or at the basket dunking. I like this. It makes a pretty shot chart. And puts his eFG of 58%. Toward the end of the season with real minutes, he looked like he was getting comfortable. I can't promise that holds or that other teams don't adjust to him. Here, I am saying, give him a chance. His usage is 20% compared to Randle's 28%. Meaning, he adds value without necessarily having the ball in his hands. He sets up in the corner and tends to make baseline runs in the half court set and the kid loves to run on the fast break. If any player has the potential to benefit from Brunson showing up, its Toppin.

Grimes is a close second. Randle and Barrett will lose touches to Brunson. Both are relegated to the low eFG defense players that they look like, unless they can evolve what we saw last year.

Brunson/Grimes/Barrett/Toppin/Hart spreads a lot of floor and has a lot of eFG (except for Barrett, but I want to give the kid a chance to play with the amount of space this lineup creates vs letting Fournier poke holes in the defense.

So, what's the defense of Randle look like? 20/10 very inefficiently with Robinson boxing out so he can get the rebound?

Think the things you do not like about Randle are the same that I do not as well.

You are asking me to define Randle's production yet you think I should accept we should go with Toppin, who lacks any large sample size of ANY type of production? Or just "because you want him to have a chance", "takes no mid range shots", "shoots pretty poor from 3pt" range? And is a player "you can't promise that can play like he did in those few games at the end of the season"? Agree with the importance of how well someone will do when teams make adjustments. Feel other variables should be used to judge Randle's numbers as well. Randle has been our go to guy for the last three years. He has been who opposing teams focus on. Opposing teams have made constant adjustments for him. He draws constant double teams? Despite that, Randle still puts up double doubles.
So many are quick to put down Randle's stats with their own "advanced metrics" yet do not use simple metrics for other hopefuls or ignore variable such as the ones mentioned above to factor in their disapproval. I can respect that you said you want to see Toppin given a chance but just leave it at that instead of finding reasons to ignore Randle's well-known production and Obi's obvious shortcomings. Which also include defensive ability. I do not like Randle's usage. Do not like when he brings the ball up the floor. Think he can elevate his game so much by adding more assists to his game. HOWEVER, the guy is a beast and has been a consistent producer for years. And yes, 20/10 is solid no matter how you slice it. Unless you can point to the many others that are doing it on an annual click. Ones that are available and have all the other traits you claim Randle is lacking. Fans often put down their own and bring up so many things that player can't do. Ignoring that there have been few players in NBA history that have possessed all of the attributes they claim that player should have.

I am a Knick fan. And while I do not think Randle should be our number one or even our number 2. He is our best player right now. Obi is just a prospect who has only proven he can dunk and still can't shoot. No way do I want to see a Knick team without Randle and Obi as our starting PF.
Was also against the Frank and Knox dream and wanted Obi as our pick. If he surprises me that would be great. But like Knox and Frank. I am not blind. Think we are past the keep our fingers crossed for yoots. Think we should look to add solid perennial producers. And yes, Randle is one.

The double-double argument has no weight with me. Pretty much any player in Randle's place that got upward of 15 shot attempts per game can score 20pts per game. Rebounds I won't discount entirely but continue to point to Mitchell Robinson's box outs as a source of Randle's rebounds. Randle is an inefficient 20 point scorer.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced/?sort=EFG_PCT&dir=1&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&Season=2021-22&CF=FGA_PG*GE*15:POSS*GE*1000

In the attached link, you can see that out of players taking 15 shots per game, Randle is essentially the worst scorer in the league. He scores less points per shot taken than any other player that gets so many shots. Worse than Westbrick.

So, am I willing to start a young player that has been stuck behind Randle over Randle even though he doesn't have experience (because he was stuck behind Randle)? Yes. That's the only way to get him experience. It would be hard for Toppin to do worse than Randle but the key is that Toppin doesn't need to take those shots Randle was taking, its just that Randle shouldn't take those shots. That said, I think Toppin is better suited to accepting passes from Brunson and getting out of the way and hiding in the corner when he doesn't have the ball. I think he will mesh better with Brunson.

Once again, proving my point.
Don't Remember MR helping Randle with rebounding when he was on the Lakers and NO.
If you are using the above AStat then guess RJ should go as well.?
Let's look at the stats you are selectively using to make your point.
Of course let's ignore this stat is hampered if you are the main defensive target. Get double teamed. And only dunk when shooting.
If we look at the same criteria in 2020-21 you would have traded away Ja Morant, Anthony Edwards, Trae Young, Anthony Davis, Pascal Siakam and Demar DeRozan. All for guys that only score on alley oops and are afraid to shoot. Maybe Frank is available? Because I know Durant, Irving, Curry Greek Freak are not. Remember when I mentioned how fans love to put down their players without looking at other options or how many others actually have the qualities they are looking for?

Still waiting for the historical stat production of Obi, who you claim is a better option. And btw, still do not see the logic in using advanced stats for Randle but ignoring basic stat production for Obi. So won't just take your word for it that Obi is a better option.

Yeah, I think Barrett should take less bad shots as well. We were talking about Randle/Toppin so I didn't take the opportunity to slam RJ. RJ gets the "youth" and development pass for another season, but I would not pay him a max contract with his current numbers. I've posted on several occasions about Toppin vs Randle. His .581 eFG is solid and he is also "developing". I think with a good PG he is closer to a Shawn Marion type player and could really blossom next to Brunson. Randle has good skills, but settles for playing with his back to the basket 18 feet from the rim and has done a poor job of converting. He can be on this team, he just can't take those shots.

I know you are trying to zing me, but you kind of shot yourself in the foot. Not sure where you got your list from, but all of the folks you suggest are light years ahead of our guys in eFG.

Trae Young .536 eFG is among the best high volume, high eFG shooters in the league.
Ja Morant .530 eFG is also among the best high volume, high eFG shooters in the league.
Anthony Edwards .527 eFG. Not as high volume. No issues.
Anthony Davis .542 (actually, not as impressed as a big man, but still light years ahead of Randle)
Pascal Siakam .529 eFG
Demar Derozan .521 eFG.

Julius Randle .459 eFG.

Among high volume shooters, Randle is the worst in the league.

Zing? Not trying to zing anyone.
Just pointing out that using your logic for moving Randle would have resulted in several teams moving on from players I mentioned. Considering they were worse than Randle in usage a year prior.
So you see, maybe your usage stat is not one to focus on to evaluate anything.

Where did I get my list? Just use your link and put in same AStat for 20-21?
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced/?sort=EFG_PCT&dir=1&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&Season=2020-21&CF=FGA_PG*GE*15:POSS*GE*1000

I don’t see any of those players with an eFG as low as .459. That’s really really bad. And it is clearly poor shot selection.

Using 20/21 instead, Randle still was mediocre at best at .519 eFG and among the players that were worse in 2021, teams paid to move on from these players. Bos moved on from Kemba. SAS moved on from Derozan, Washington moved on from Wall. Houston moved on from Westbrook. Teams write checks and/or give up picks to get away from low efficiency high volume shooters. It doesn’t mean they can’t find another team and do ok. But, it’s a pretty good indicator that something isn’t working right and needs to change.

It’s one thing to be a developing player on a rookie scale contract (See Barrett, RJ) it’s another to be the lead vet on a bad team chucking up 18 footers while hitting 35%. That said, in the case of RJ, I advocated heavily to get him the ball as lead scorer, but I wasn’t really happy with what I saw. He rarely finished strong and his 3 and the FT were not consistent. The “you watching me” nonsense with the fans just made me think he had a huge ego.

I don’t think your argument that teams move on from Trae or Ja are valid. My premise that teams should move shots away from bad shooters hasn’t really be countered though. My solution of switching Toppin for Randle isn’t perfect, but it really means giving Randle’s shots to Brunson and letting Toppin receive some lobs. I can’t replace Randle’s defense with that argument though. So my options are Randle shoots less or Toppin plays more.

Point was that they were all worse and towards the bottom in the very same category you claim deems Randle expendable. Why did I use 20/21? Why did you use 21/22?

Here is the thing, we are not going to agree. You will pick stats that favor your point and I will pick stats to favor my point. Even though you have yet to point to ANY stat that would justify Obi starting over Randle. Your view that Obi would be a better starter is still just based on a hunch and hope. Coaches/FO's don't go on those. Really smart basketball guys made a decision that Randle was worth an extension. All who see the same stats we do. So far they agree with me. As did those who voted for Randle to be an All Star and most improved player.(which I am sure you can try to diminish as well) Like I said, I respect that you want to see how your hopeful will do. Hell so do I in the case of Grimes and IQ. But I am also not blind to what Randle is and that guys in front of Grimes and IQ have a longer proven track record in the NBA. .

My prediction is that Randle will still be the starting PF and our best player, Obi still won't be able to shoot but will provide high energy and ger more minutes than last year, Do agree that if playing Randle does not translate to wins, the FO will look to move on.

It’s amusing that you suggest I am relying on thoughts and feelings while you and your experience are relying on stats. The numbers you use don’t support your position.

I point to Toppin’s .581 eFG, his 20% usage, his movement without the ball.

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&CF=TEAM_ABBREVIATION*E*NYK:MIN*GE*20&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1&GroupQuantity=2

This is the Knicks 2 man Plus Minus. Look. Toppin our scores his opponents no matter who has been on the court with him.

I know the weaknesses of my argument. I admit them openly. Can he do it with volume?

My point is more that Randle isn’t working. You don’t like Toppin? Ok, let me pick someone with a higher eFG than Randle? That’s pretty much everyone. You want to keep Randle because his defense is good. Ok. Just stop him from taking so many bad shots.

Maybe coaches play bad players, GM should remove that option.

Leon Rose said in his end of year statement that they would build on the success at the end of the year. Randle and Barrett were on the bench...

HofstraBBall wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

HofstraBBall wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

HofstraBBall wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

HofstraBBall wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

HofstraBBall wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

HofstraBBall wrote:

jskinny35 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

CashMoney wrote:Obi played 17 minutes per game last year up from 11 minutes per game in his rookie season. He positively developed from year 1 to year 2 so why can't he continue to improve his game while coming off the bench next season?

Teams need the talent to win and obviously, Tobi has talent. I don't see anything wrong with him getting increased minutes next season and continuing to improve his game which will improve the team's play.

Obi is the only true PF on the team besides Randle so how is having a developing young PF playing behind Randle a bad thing?

because emo Knick fans dont like grumpy pants Randle so he's gotta go so we need to manufacture a narrative to make that make sense. Everything is perfect. It will be really hard for Obi to get more minutes and it is what it is. If he's playing hot he hopefully get longer runs or play some small ball 4/5 with Randle but we have 3 centers and Thibs like's playing one of them.

Obi's got 2 more years under his rookie deal for us to see just how good he's gonna be.

Randle manufactured his own narrative by being a douche last season. Most fans will forgive the tantrums and the reduced poor shooting/performance - but not both at the same time. Be a headcase - but be so good that all is forgiven. Last season Randle was a a pain in the ass, behaved entitled and worst - did not hustle and support his teammates positively. So I wouldn't call that perfect and since we have a young PF that in limited minutes has shown decent production - he has earned more minutes which will not come at the expense of creating another problem (playing Randle and Toppin together as opposing forwards lick their chops). Even if Randle matched his prior stellar year - he's too iso-dominant and not good enough efficiency-wise to keep going with him and expect better results. Yes Brunson will help but will Randle in his 7th/8th year adjust and take a back seat and defer? To me, that is the only way I see a future with Randle starting that could work and I honestly don't think his pride/ego will allow him to do that. And I hope I'm wrong because I do think it's more likely he is the starting PF on opening day.

Why is it that Knick fans think that it would be good for Randle to "take a back seat"
How do you know that this approach will actually help the Knicks?
Who should he take a back seat to?
Don't fans really mean "give my hopeful" a chance? Then why not just say that?
Randle has produced EVERY YEAR??!
Why not, as a TRUE Knick fan just hope he shoots as well as he did his All Star year?
Seems like a better path then hoping we move on from him without a solid replacement or to give some hopeful, that has proven nothing, his spot now?

Define produced. You carry an old school mentality to players much like Thibs which is not to say that you must be wrong, but it seems to ignore the deeper metrics that I am staring at. I think we are both watching the same games and I do think Randle has value, but I think his value is primarily defensive. I admit that I hate midrange shots generally for their lack of eFG and specifically fadeaway type shots (and floaters) that have low probability of drawing a foul. When you look at Randle and see that 44% of his shots are midrange 2pt jumpers that he hits at about a 35-36% clip, I cannot get the ball out of his hands fast enough. Its a formula for losing basketball. Like him? Marry him, but him a beer, but don't let him take bad shots. Someone needs to educate him on how ineffective and inefficient his shot selection is. If he had Khris Middleton's shot chart, I'd have to re-consider giving him a pass, but he doesn't.

His 3pt percentage was even worse this year. He took 31% of his shots from 3 last year and his 30% of those 3s. Thing is, people think that 20/21's 41% from 3 is his real skill but if you look at him historically, that 41% is the outlier. If you have to throw out the high and the low season, his 22% from 3 season goes and his 41% from 3 season is gone. That leaves him with a career high of 34% from 3 and most seasons are sub-30. Will the real Randle please stand up? Unfortunately, 21-22 Randle is pretty accurate, except that he did worse in the paint that his career averages.

So, am I saying give my "hopeful" a chance? Sure. I'll use your words. Toppin = Hopeful = Give him a chance! Why? He takes nearly no midrange shots. He's behind the 3pt line shooting pretty poorly (needs work!!!) or at the basket dunking. I like this. It makes a pretty shot chart. And puts his eFG of 58%. Toward the end of the season with real minutes, he looked like he was getting comfortable. I can't promise that holds or that other teams don't adjust to him. Here, I am saying, give him a chance. His usage is 20% compared to Randle's 28%. Meaning, he adds value without necessarily having the ball in his hands. He sets up in the corner and tends to make baseline runs in the half court set and the kid loves to run on the fast break. If any player has the potential to benefit from Brunson showing up, its Toppin.

Grimes is a close second. Randle and Barrett will lose touches to Brunson. Both are relegated to the low eFG defense players that they look like, unless they can evolve what we saw last year.

Brunson/Grimes/Barrett/Toppin/Hart spreads a lot of floor and has a lot of eFG (except for Barrett, but I want to give the kid a chance to play with the amount of space this lineup creates vs letting Fournier poke holes in the defense.

So, what's the defense of Randle look like? 20/10 very inefficiently with Robinson boxing out so he can get the rebound?

Think the things you do not like about Randle are the same that I do not as well.

You are asking me to define Randle's production yet you think I should accept we should go with Toppin, who lacks any large sample size of ANY type of production? Or just "because you want him to have a chance", "takes no mid range shots", "shoots pretty poor from 3pt" range? And is a player "you can't promise that can play like he did in those few games at the end of the season"? Agree with the importance of how well someone will do when teams make adjustments. Feel other variables should be used to judge Randle's numbers as well. Randle has been our go to guy for the last three years. He has been who opposing teams focus on. Opposing teams have made constant adjustments for him. He draws constant double teams? Despite that, Randle still puts up double doubles.
So many are quick to put down Randle's stats with their own "advanced metrics" yet do not use simple metrics for other hopefuls or ignore variable such as the ones mentioned above to factor in their disapproval. I can respect that you said you want to see Toppin given a chance but just leave it at that instead of finding reasons to ignore Randle's well-known production and Obi's obvious shortcomings. Which also include defensive ability. I do not like Randle's usage. Do not like when he brings the ball up the floor. Think he can elevate his game so much by adding more assists to his game. HOWEVER, the guy is a beast and has been a consistent producer for years. And yes, 20/10 is solid no matter how you slice it. Unless you can point to the many others that are doing it on an annual click. Ones that are available and have all the other traits you claim Randle is lacking. Fans often put down their own and bring up so many things that player can't do. Ignoring that there have been few players in NBA history that have possessed all of the attributes they claim that player should have.

I am a Knick fan. And while I do not think Randle should be our number one or even our number 2. He is our best player right now. Obi is just a prospect who has only proven he can dunk and still can't shoot. No way do I want to see a Knick team without Randle and Obi as our starting PF.
Was also against the Frank and Knox dream and wanted Obi as our pick. If he surprises me that would be great. But like Knox and Frank. I am not blind. Think we are past the keep our fingers crossed for yoots. Think we should look to add solid perennial producers. And yes, Randle is one.

The double-double argument has no weight with me. Pretty much any player in Randle's place that got upward of 15 shot attempts per game can score 20pts per game. Rebounds I won't discount entirely but continue to point to Mitchell Robinson's box outs as a source of Randle's rebounds. Randle is an inefficient 20 point scorer.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced/?sort=EFG_PCT&dir=1&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&Season=2021-22&CF=FGA_PG*GE*15:POSS*GE*1000

In the attached link, you can see that out of players taking 15 shots per game, Randle is essentially the worst scorer in the league. He scores less points per shot taken than any other player that gets so many shots. Worse than Westbrick.

So, am I willing to start a young player that has been stuck behind Randle over Randle even though he doesn't have experience (because he was stuck behind Randle)? Yes. That's the only way to get him experience. It would be hard for Toppin to do worse than Randle but the key is that Toppin doesn't need to take those shots Randle was taking, its just that Randle shouldn't take those shots. That said, I think Toppin is better suited to accepting passes from Brunson and getting out of the way and hiding in the corner when he doesn't have the ball. I think he will mesh better with Brunson.

Once again, proving my point.
Don't Remember MR helping Randle with rebounding when he was on the Lakers and NO.
If you are using the above AStat then guess RJ should go as well.?
Let's look at the stats you are selectively using to make your point.
Of course let's ignore this stat is hampered if you are the main defensive target. Get double teamed. And only dunk when shooting.
If we look at the same criteria in 2020-21 you would have traded away Ja Morant, Anthony Edwards, Trae Young, Anthony Davis, Pascal Siakam and Demar DeRozan. All for guys that only score on alley oops and are afraid to shoot. Maybe Frank is available? Because I know Durant, Irving, Curry Greek Freak are not. Remember when I mentioned how fans love to put down their players without looking at other options or how many others actually have the qualities they are looking for?

Still waiting for the historical stat production of Obi, who you claim is a better option. And btw, still do not see the logic in using advanced stats for Randle but ignoring basic stat production for Obi. So won't just take your word for it that Obi is a better option.

Yeah, I think Barrett should take less bad shots as well. We were talking about Randle/Toppin so I didn't take the opportunity to slam RJ. RJ gets the "youth" and development pass for another season, but I would not pay him a max contract with his current numbers. I've posted on several occasions about Toppin vs Randle. His .581 eFG is solid and he is also "developing". I think with a good PG he is closer to a Shawn Marion type player and could really blossom next to Brunson. Randle has good skills, but settles for playing with his back to the basket 18 feet from the rim and has done a poor job of converting. He can be on this team, he just can't take those shots.

I know you are trying to zing me, but you kind of shot yourself in the foot. Not sure where you got your list from, but all of the folks you suggest are light years ahead of our guys in eFG.

Trae Young .536 eFG is among the best high volume, high eFG shooters in the league.
Ja Morant .530 eFG is also among the best high volume, high eFG shooters in the league.
Anthony Edwards .527 eFG. Not as high volume. No issues.
Anthony Davis .542 (actually, not as impressed as a big man, but still light years ahead of Randle)
Pascal Siakam .529 eFG
Demar Derozan .521 eFG.

Julius Randle .459 eFG.

Among high volume shooters, Randle is the worst in the league.

Zing? Not trying to zing anyone.
Just pointing out that using your logic for moving Randle would have resulted in several teams moving on from players I mentioned. Considering they were worse than Randle in usage a year prior.
So you see, maybe your usage stat is not one to focus on to evaluate anything.

Where did I get my list? Just use your link and put in same AStat for 20-21?
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced/?sort=EFG_PCT&dir=1&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&Season=2020-21&CF=FGA_PG*GE*15:POSS*GE*1000

I don’t see any of those players with an eFG as low as .459. That’s really really bad. And it is clearly poor shot selection.

Using 20/21 instead, Randle still was mediocre at best at .519 eFG and among the players that were worse in 2021, teams paid to move on from these players. Bos moved on from Kemba. SAS moved on from Derozan, Washington moved on from Wall. Houston moved on from Westbrook. Teams write checks and/or give up picks to get away from low efficiency high volume shooters. It doesn’t mean they can’t find another team and do ok. But, it’s a pretty good indicator that something isn’t working right and needs to change.

It’s one thing to be a developing player on a rookie scale contract (See Barrett, RJ) it’s another to be the lead vet on a bad team chucking up 18 footers while hitting 35%. That said, in the case of RJ, I advocated heavily to get him the ball as lead scorer, but I wasn’t really happy with what I saw. He rarely finished strong and his 3 and the FT were not consistent. The “you watching me” nonsense with the fans just made me think he had a huge ego.

I don’t think your argument that teams move on from Trae or Ja are valid. My premise that teams should move shots away from bad shooters hasn’t really be countered though. My solution of switching Toppin for Randle isn’t perfect, but it really means giving Randle’s shots to Brunson and letting Toppin receive some lobs. I can’t replace Randle’s defense with that argument though. So my options are Randle shoots less or Toppin plays more.

Point was that they were all worse and towards the bottom in the very same category you claim deems Randle expendable. Why did I use 20/21? Why did you use 21/22?

Here is the thing, we are not going to agree. You will pick stats that favor your point and I will pick stats to favor my point. Even though you have yet to point to ANY stat that would justify Obi starting over Randle. Your view that Obi would be a better starter is still just based on a hunch and hope. Coaches/FO's don't go on those. Really smart basketball guys made a decision that Randle was worth an extension. All who see the same stats we do. So far they agree with me. As did those who voted for Randle to be an All Star and most improved player.(which I am sure you can try to diminish as well) Like I said, I respect that you want to see how your hopeful will do. Hell so do I in the case of Grimes and IQ. But I am also not blind to what Randle is and that guys in front of Grimes and IQ have a longer proven track record in the NBA. .

My prediction is that Randle will still be the starting PF and our best player, Obi still won't be able to shoot but will provide high energy and ger more minutes than last year, Do agree that if playing Randle does not translate to wins, the FO will look to move on.

It’s amusing that you suggest I am relying on thoughts and feelings while you and your experience are relying on stats. The numbers you use don’t support your position.

I point to Toppin’s .581 eFG, his 20% usage, his movement without the ball.

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&CF=TEAM_ABBREVIATION*E*NYK:MIN*GE*20&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1&GroupQuantity=2

This is the Knicks 2 man Plus Minus. Look. Toppin our scores his opponents no matter who has been on the court with him.

I know the weaknesses of my argument. I admit them openly. Can he do it with volume?

My point is more that Randle isn’t working. You don’t like Toppin? Ok, let me pick someone with a higher eFG than Randle? That’s pretty much everyone. You want to keep Randle because his defense is good. Ok. Just stop him from taking so many bad shots.

Maybe coaches play bad players, GM should remove that option.

Leon Rose said in his end of year statement that they would build on the success at the end of the year. Randle and Barrett were on the bench...

At least you understand one of my points.
Now maybe try to understand how you are using an extremely small sample size(AStat) to suggest that Obi can do exactly what? Dunk at a high rate? Can he create for himself? Can he create for others? Can he shoot from mid range or long range? Can he defend? Garnish double teams to make it easier for others? Bull his way to basket and draw fouls? Not blind man.

Let me ask you a question. In your opinion, Randle cannot be part of anything successful right? ("Isn't working")
So what happened in 20/21 when we were the 4th seed with Payton and ...... ?
You want someone else? Who? You guarantee better results?
Why not go with a guy that got you the 4 and now has a PG and better pieces?

You are hung up on Obi and I am not. I am hung up on less bad shots from Randle. I like Randle’s defense. I absolutely do not want him taking the most shots on the Knicks with that efficiency. It’s black and white. You want to give him a Draymond Green role? Ok. I’m in.

Take Randle’s shooting chart and cut out the poor shooting from 12-18 feet and I am done arguing.

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jskinny35 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

CashMoney wrote:Obi played 17 minutes per game last year up from 11 minutes per game in his rookie season. He positively developed from year 1 to year 2 so why can't he continue to improve his game while coming off the bench next season?

Teams need the talent to win and obviously, Tobi has talent. I don't see anything wrong with him getting increased minutes next season and continuing to improve his game which will improve the team's play.

Obi is the only true PF on the team besides Randle so how is having a developing young PF playing behind Randle a bad thing?

because emo Knick fans dont like grumpy pants Randle so he's gotta go so we need to manufacture a narrative to make that make sense. Everything is perfect. It will be really hard for Obi to get more minutes and it is what it is. If he's playing hot he hopefully get longer runs or play some small ball 4/5 with Randle but we have 3 centers and Thibs like's playing one of them.

Obi's got 2 more years under his rookie deal for us to see just how good he's gonna be.

Randle manufactured his own narrative by being a douche last season. Most fans will forgive the tantrums and the reduced poor shooting/performance - but not both at the same time. Be a headcase - but be so good that all is forgiven. Last season Randle was a a pain in the ass, behaved entitled and worst - did not hustle and support his teammates positively. So I wouldn't call that perfect and since we have a young PF that in limited minutes has shown decent production - he has earned more minutes which will not come at the expense of creating another problem (playing Randle and Toppin together as opposing forwards lick their chops). Even if Randle matched his prior stellar year - he's too iso-dominant and not good enough efficiency-wise to keep going with him and expect better results. Yes Brunson will help but will Randle in his 7th/8th year adjust and take a back seat and defer? To me, that is the only way I see a future with Randle starting that could work and I honestly don't think his pride/ego will allow him to do that. And I hope I'm wrong because I do think it's more likely he is the starting PF on opening day.

Why is it that Knick fans think that it would be good for Randle to "take a back seat"
How do you know that this approach will actually help the Knicks?
Who should he take a back seat to?
Don't fans really mean "give my hopeful" a chance? Then why not just say that?
Randle has produced EVERY YEAR??!
Why not, as a TRUE Knick fan just hope he shoots as well as he did his All Star year?
Seems like a better path then hoping we move on from him without a solid replacement or to give some hopeful, that has proven nothing, his spot now?

Define produced. You carry an old school mentality to players much like Thibs which is not to say that you must be wrong, but it seems to ignore the deeper metrics that I am staring at. I think we are both watching the same games and I do think Randle has value, but I think his value is primarily defensive. I admit that I hate midrange shots generally for their lack of eFG and specifically fadeaway type shots (and floaters) that have low probability of drawing a foul. When you look at Randle and see that 44% of his shots are midrange 2pt jumpers that he hits at about a 35-36% clip, I cannot get the ball out of his hands fast enough. Its a formula for losing basketball. Like him? Marry him, but him a beer, but don't let him take bad shots. Someone needs to educate him on how ineffective and inefficient his shot selection is. If he had Khris Middleton's shot chart, I'd have to re-consider giving him a pass, but he doesn't.

His 3pt percentage was even worse this year. He took 31% of his shots from 3 last year and his 30% of those 3s. Thing is, people think that 20/21's 41% from 3 is his real skill but if you look at him historically, that 41% is the outlier. If you have to throw out the high and the low season, his 22% from 3 season goes and his 41% from 3 season is gone. That leaves him with a career high of 34% from 3 and most seasons are sub-30. Will the real Randle please stand up? Unfortunately, 21-22 Randle is pretty accurate, except that he did worse in the paint that his career averages.

So, am I saying give my "hopeful" a chance? Sure. I'll use your words. Toppin = Hopeful = Give him a chance! Why? He takes nearly no midrange shots. He's behind the 3pt line shooting pretty poorly (needs work!!!) or at the basket dunking. I like this. It makes a pretty shot chart. And puts his eFG of 58%. Toward the end of the season with real minutes, he looked like he was getting comfortable. I can't promise that holds or that other teams don't adjust to him. Here, I am saying, give him a chance. His usage is 20% compared to Randle's 28%. Meaning, he adds value without necessarily having the ball in his hands. He sets up in the corner and tends to make baseline runs in the half court set and the kid loves to run on the fast break. If any player has the potential to benefit from Brunson showing up, its Toppin.

Grimes is a close second. Randle and Barrett will lose touches to Brunson. Both are relegated to the low eFG defense players that they look like, unless they can evolve what we saw last year.

Brunson/Grimes/Barrett/Toppin/Hart spreads a lot of floor and has a lot of eFG (except for Barrett, but I want to give the kid a chance to play with the amount of space this lineup creates vs letting Fournier poke holes in the defense.

So, what's the defense of Randle look like? 20/10 very inefficiently with Robinson boxing out so he can get the rebound?

Think the things you do not like about Randle are the same that I do not as well.

You are asking me to define Randle's production yet you think I should accept we should go with Toppin, who lacks any large sample size of ANY type of production? Or just "because you want him to have a chance", "takes no mid range shots", "shoots pretty poor from 3pt" range? And is a player "you can't promise that can play like he did in those few games at the end of the season"? Agree with the importance of how well someone will do when teams make adjustments. Feel other variables should be used to judge Randle's numbers as well. Randle has been our go to guy for the last three years. He has been who opposing teams focus on. Opposing teams have made constant adjustments for him. He draws constant double teams? Despite that, Randle still puts up double doubles.
So many are quick to put down Randle's stats with their own "advanced metrics" yet do not use simple metrics for other hopefuls or ignore variable such as the ones mentioned above to factor in their disapproval. I can respect that you said you want to see Toppin given a chance but just leave it at that instead of finding reasons to ignore Randle's well-known production and Obi's obvious shortcomings. Which also include defensive ability. I do not like Randle's usage. Do not like when he brings the ball up the floor. Think he can elevate his game so much by adding more assists to his game. HOWEVER, the guy is a beast and has been a consistent producer for years. And yes, 20/10 is solid no matter how you slice it. Unless you can point to the many others that are doing it on an annual click. Ones that are available and have all the other traits you claim Randle is lacking. Fans often put down their own and bring up so many things that player can't do. Ignoring that there have been few players in NBA history that have possessed all of the attributes they claim that player should have.

I am a Knick fan. And while I do not think Randle should be our number one or even our number 2. He is our best player right now. Obi is just a prospect who has only proven he can dunk and still can't shoot. No way do I want to see a Knick team without Randle and Obi as our starting PF.
Was also against the Frank and Knox dream and wanted Obi as our pick. If he surprises me that would be great. But like Knox and Frank. I am not blind. Think we are past the keep our fingers crossed for yoots. Think we should look to add solid perennial producers. And yes, Randle is one.

The double-double argument has no weight with me. Pretty much any player in Randle's place that got upward of 15 shot attempts per game can score 20pts per game. Rebounds I won't discount entirely but continue to point to Mitchell Robinson's box outs as a source of Randle's rebounds. Randle is an inefficient 20 point scorer.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced/?sort=EFG_PCT&dir=1&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&Season=2021-22&CF=FGA_PG*GE*15:POSS*GE*1000

In the attached link, you can see that out of players taking 15 shots per game, Randle is essentially the worst scorer in the league. He scores less points per shot taken than any other player that gets so many shots. Worse than Westbrick.

So, am I willing to start a young player that has been stuck behind Randle over Randle even though he doesn't have experience (because he was stuck behind Randle)? Yes. That's the only way to get him experience. It would be hard for Toppin to do worse than Randle but the key is that Toppin doesn't need to take those shots Randle was taking, its just that Randle shouldn't take those shots. That said, I think Toppin is better suited to accepting passes from Brunson and getting out of the way and hiding in the corner when he doesn't have the ball. I think he will mesh better with Brunson.

Once again, proving my point.
Don't Remember MR helping Randle with rebounding when he was on the Lakers and NO.
If you are using the above AStat then guess RJ should go as well.?
Let's look at the stats you are selectively using to make your point.
Of course let's ignore this stat is hampered if you are the main defensive target. Get double teamed. And only dunk when shooting.
If we look at the same criteria in 2020-21 you would have traded away Ja Morant, Anthony Edwards, Trae Young, Anthony Davis, Pascal Siakam and Demar DeRozan. All for guys that only score on alley oops and are afraid to shoot. Maybe Frank is available? Because I know Durant, Irving, Curry Greek Freak are not. Remember when I mentioned how fans love to put down their players without looking at other options or how many others actually have the qualities they are looking for?

Still waiting for the historical stat production of Obi, who you claim is a better option. And btw, still do not see the logic in using advanced stats for Randle but ignoring basic stat production for Obi. So won't just take your word for it that Obi is a better option.

Yeah, I think Barrett should take less bad shots as well. We were talking about Randle/Toppin so I didn't take the opportunity to slam RJ. RJ gets the "youth" and development pass for another season, but I would not pay him a max contract with his current numbers. I've posted on several occasions about Toppin vs Randle. His .581 eFG is solid and he is also "developing". I think with a good PG he is closer to a Shawn Marion type player and could really blossom next to Brunson. Randle has good skills, but settles for playing with his back to the basket 18 feet from the rim and has done a poor job of converting. He can be on this team, he just can't take those shots.

I know you are trying to zing me, but you kind of shot yourself in the foot. Not sure where you got your list from, but all of the folks you suggest are light years ahead of our guys in eFG.

Trae Young .536 eFG is among the best high volume, high eFG shooters in the league.
Ja Morant .530 eFG is also among the best high volume, high eFG shooters in the league.
Anthony Edwards .527 eFG. Not as high volume. No issues.
Anthony Davis .542 (actually, not as impressed as a big man, but still light years ahead of Randle)
Pascal Siakam .529 eFG
Demar Derozan .521 eFG.

Julius Randle .459 eFG.

Among high volume shooters, Randle is the worst in the league.

Zing? Not trying to zing anyone.
Just pointing out that using your logic for moving Randle would have resulted in several teams moving on from players I mentioned. Considering they were worse than Randle in usage a year prior.
So you see, maybe your usage stat is not one to focus on to evaluate anything.

Where did I get my list? Just use your link and put in same AStat for 20-21?
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced/?sort=EFG_PCT&dir=1&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&Season=2020-21&CF=FGA_PG*GE*15:POSS*GE*1000

I don’t see any of those players with an eFG as low as .459. That’s really really bad. And it is clearly poor shot selection.

Using 20/21 instead, Randle still was mediocre at best at .519 eFG and among the players that were worse in 2021, teams paid to move on from these players. Bos moved on from Kemba. SAS moved on from Derozan, Washington moved on from Wall. Houston moved on from Westbrook. Teams write checks and/or give up picks to get away from low efficiency high volume shooters. It doesn’t mean they can’t find another team and do ok. But, it’s a pretty good indicator that something isn’t working right and needs to change.

It’s one thing to be a developing player on a rookie scale contract (See Barrett, RJ) it’s another to be the lead vet on a bad team chucking up 18 footers while hitting 35%. That said, in the case of RJ, I advocated heavily to get him the ball as lead scorer, but I wasn’t really happy with what I saw. He rarely finished strong and his 3 and the FT were not consistent. The “you watching me” nonsense with the fans just made me think he had a huge ego.

I don’t think your argument that teams move on from Trae or Ja are valid. My premise that teams should move shots away from bad shooters hasn’t really be countered though. My solution of switching Toppin for Randle isn’t perfect, but it really means giving Randle’s shots to Brunson and letting Toppin receive some lobs. I can’t replace Randle’s defense with that argument though. So my options are Randle shoots less or Toppin plays more.

Point was that they were all worse and towards the bottom in the very same category you claim deems Randle expendable. Why did I use 20/21? Why did you use 21/22?

Here is the thing, we are not going to agree. You will pick stats that favor your point and I will pick stats to favor my point. Even though you have yet to point to ANY stat that would justify Obi starting over Randle. Your view that Obi would be a better starter is still just based on a hunch and hope. Coaches/FO's don't go on those. Really smart basketball guys made a decision that Randle was worth an extension. All who see the same stats we do. So far they agree with me. As did those who voted for Randle to be an All Star and most improved player.(which I am sure you can try to diminish as well) Like I said, I respect that you want to see how your hopeful will do. Hell so do I in the case of Grimes and IQ. But I am also not blind to what Randle is and that guys in front of Grimes and IQ have a longer proven track record in the NBA. .

My prediction is that Randle will still be the starting PF and our best player, Obi still won't be able to shoot but will provide high energy and ger more minutes than last year, Do agree that if playing Randle does not translate to wins, the FO will look to move on.

It’s amusing that you suggest I am relying on thoughts and feelings while you and your experience are relying on stats. The numbers you use don’t support your position.

I point to Toppin’s .581 eFG, his 20% usage, his movement without the ball.

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&CF=TEAM_ABBREVIATION*E*NYK:MIN*GE*20&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1&GroupQuantity=2

This is the Knicks 2 man Plus Minus. Look. Toppin our scores his opponents no matter who has been on the court with him.

I know the weaknesses of my argument. I admit them openly. Can he do it with volume?

My point is more that Randle isn’t working. You don’t like Toppin? Ok, let me pick someone with a higher eFG than Randle? That’s pretty much everyone. You want to keep Randle because his defense is good. Ok. Just stop him from taking so many bad shots.

Maybe coaches play bad players, GM should remove that option.

Leon Rose said in his end of year statement that they would build on the success at the end of the year. Randle and Barrett were on the bench...

At least you understand one of my points.
Now maybe try to understand how you are using an extremely small sample size(AStat) to suggest that Obi can do exactly what? Dunk at a high rate? Can he create for himself? Can he create for others? Can he shoot from mid range or long range? Can he defend? Garnish double teams to make it easier for others? Bull his way to basket and draw fouls? Not blind man.

Let me ask you a question. In your opinion, Randle cannot be part of anything successful right? ("Isn't working")
So what happened in 20/21 when we were the 4th seed with Payton and ...... ?
You want someone else? Who? You guarantee better results?
Why not go with a guy that got you the 4 and now has a PG and better pieces?

You are hung up on Obi and I am not. I am hung up on less bad shots from Randle. I like Randle’s defense. I absolutely do not want him taking the most shots on the Knicks with that efficiency. It’s black and white. You want to give him a Draymond Green role? Ok. I’m in.

Take Randle’s shooting chart and cut out the poor shooting from 12-18 feet and I am done arguing.

My argument was never about Randle not needing to improve. It was about me defending the idea that we should trade a solid player because he needs to do so. .
And whether a player with NO significant history of success should start over a recent All Star. .

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fishmike wrote:

CashMoney wrote:Obi played 17 minutes per game last year up from 11 minutes per game in his rookie season. He positively developed from year 1 to year 2 so why can't he continue to improve his game while coming off the bench next season?

Teams need the talent to win and obviously, Tobi has talent. I don't see anything wrong with him getting increased minutes next season and continuing to improve his game which will improve the team's play.

Obi is the only true PF on the team besides Randle so how is having a developing young PF playing behind Randle a bad thing?

because emo Knick fans dont like grumpy pants Randle so he's gotta go so we need to manufacture a narrative to make that make sense. Everything is perfect. It will be really hard for Obi to get more minutes and it is what it is. If he's playing hot he hopefully get longer runs or play some small ball 4/5 with Randle but we have 3 centers and Thibs like's playing one of them.

Obi's got 2 more years under his rookie deal for us to see just how good he's gonna be.

Randle manufactured his own narrative by being a douche last season. Most fans will forgive the tantrums and the reduced poor shooting/performance - but not both at the same time. Be a headcase - but be so good that all is forgiven. Last season Randle was a a pain in the ass, behaved entitled and worst - did not hustle and support his teammates positively. So I wouldn't call that perfect and since we have a young PF that in limited minutes has shown decent production - he has earned more minutes which will not come at the expense of creating another problem (playing Randle and Toppin together as opposing forwards lick their chops). Even if Randle matched his prior stellar year - he's too iso-dominant and not good enough efficiency-wise to keep going with him and expect better results. Yes Brunson will help but will Randle in his 7th/8th year adjust and take a back seat and defer? To me, that is the only way I see a future with Randle starting that could work and I honestly don't think his pride/ego will allow him to do that. And I hope I'm wrong because I do think it's more likely he is the starting PF on opening day.

Why is it that Knick fans think that it would be good for Randle to "take a back seat"
How do you know that this approach will actually help the Knicks?
Who should he take a back seat to?
Don't fans really mean "give my hopeful" a chance? Then why not just say that?
Randle has produced EVERY YEAR??!
Why not, as a TRUE Knick fan just hope he shoots as well as he did his All Star year?
Seems like a better path then hoping we move on from him without a solid replacement or to give some hopeful, that has proven nothing, his spot now?

Define produced. You carry an old school mentality to players much like Thibs which is not to say that you must be wrong, but it seems to ignore the deeper metrics that I am staring at. I think we are both watching the same games and I do think Randle has value, but I think his value is primarily defensive. I admit that I hate midrange shots generally for their lack of eFG and specifically fadeaway type shots (and floaters) that have low probability of drawing a foul. When you look at Randle and see that 44% of his shots are midrange 2pt jumpers that he hits at about a 35-36% clip, I cannot get the ball out of his hands fast enough. Its a formula for losing basketball. Like him? Marry him, but him a beer, but don't let him take bad shots. Someone needs to educate him on how ineffective and inefficient his shot selection is. If he had Khris Middleton's shot chart, I'd have to re-consider giving him a pass, but he doesn't.

His 3pt percentage was even worse this year. He took 31% of his shots from 3 last year and his 30% of those 3s. Thing is, people think that 20/21's 41% from 3 is his real skill but if you look at him historically, that 41% is the outlier. If you have to throw out the high and the low season, his 22% from 3 season goes and his 41% from 3 season is gone. That leaves him with a career high of 34% from 3 and most seasons are sub-30. Will the real Randle please stand up? Unfortunately, 21-22 Randle is pretty accurate, except that he did worse in the paint that his career averages.

So, am I saying give my "hopeful" a chance? Sure. I'll use your words. Toppin = Hopeful = Give him a chance! Why? He takes nearly no midrange shots. He's behind the 3pt line shooting pretty poorly (needs work!!!) or at the basket dunking. I like this. It makes a pretty shot chart. And puts his eFG of 58%. Toward the end of the season with real minutes, he looked like he was getting comfortable. I can't promise that holds or that other teams don't adjust to him. Here, I am saying, give him a chance. His usage is 20% compared to Randle's 28%. Meaning, he adds value without necessarily having the ball in his hands. He sets up in the corner and tends to make baseline runs in the half court set and the kid loves to run on the fast break. If any player has the potential to benefit from Brunson showing up, its Toppin.

Grimes is a close second. Randle and Barrett will lose touches to Brunson. Both are relegated to the low eFG defense players that they look like, unless they can evolve what we saw last year.

Brunson/Grimes/Barrett/Toppin/Hart spreads a lot of floor and has a lot of eFG (except for Barrett, but I want to give the kid a chance to play with the amount of space this lineup creates vs letting Fournier poke holes in the defense.

So, what's the defense of Randle look like? 20/10 very inefficiently with Robinson boxing out so he can get the rebound?

Think the things you do not like about Randle are the same that I do not as well.

You are asking me to define Randle's production yet you think I should accept we should go with Toppin, who lacks any large sample size of ANY type of production? Or just "because you want him to have a chance", "takes no mid range shots", "shoots pretty poor from 3pt" range? And is a player "you can't promise that can play like he did in those few games at the end of the season"? Agree with the importance of how well someone will do when teams make adjustments. Feel other variables should be used to judge Randle's numbers as well. Randle has been our go to guy for the last three years. He has been who opposing teams focus on. Opposing teams have made constant adjustments for him. He draws constant double teams? Despite that, Randle still puts up double doubles.
So many are quick to put down Randle's stats with their own "advanced metrics" yet do not use simple metrics for other hopefuls or ignore variable such as the ones mentioned above to factor in their disapproval. I can respect that you said you want to see Toppin given a chance but just leave it at that instead of finding reasons to ignore Randle's well-known production and Obi's obvious shortcomings. Which also include defensive ability. I do not like Randle's usage. Do not like when he brings the ball up the floor. Think he can elevate his game so much by adding more assists to his game. HOWEVER, the guy is a beast and has been a consistent producer for years. And yes, 20/10 is solid no matter how you slice it. Unless you can point to the many others that are doing it on an annual click. Ones that are available and have all the other traits you claim Randle is lacking. Fans often put down their own and bring up so many things that player can't do. Ignoring that there have been few players in NBA history that have possessed all of the attributes they claim that player should have.

I am a Knick fan. And while I do not think Randle should be our number one or even our number 2. He is our best player right now. Obi is just a prospect who has only proven he can dunk and still can't shoot. No way do I want to see a Knick team without Randle and Obi as our starting PF.
Was also against the Frank and Knox dream and wanted Obi as our pick. If he surprises me that would be great. But like Knox and Frank. I am not blind. Think we are past the keep our fingers crossed for yoots. Think we should look to add solid perennial producers. And yes, Randle is one.

The double-double argument has no weight with me. Pretty much any player in Randle's place that got upward of 15 shot attempts per game can score 20pts per game. Rebounds I won't discount entirely but continue to point to Mitchell Robinson's box outs as a source of Randle's rebounds. Randle is an inefficient 20 point scorer.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced/?sort=EFG_PCT&dir=1&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&Season=2021-22&CF=FGA_PG*GE*15:POSS*GE*1000

In the attached link, you can see that out of players taking 15 shots per game, Randle is essentially the worst scorer in the league. He scores less points per shot taken than any other player that gets so many shots. Worse than Westbrick.

So, am I willing to start a young player that has been stuck behind Randle over Randle even though he doesn't have experience (because he was stuck behind Randle)? Yes. That's the only way to get him experience. It would be hard for Toppin to do worse than Randle but the key is that Toppin doesn't need to take those shots Randle was taking, its just that Randle shouldn't take those shots. That said, I think Toppin is better suited to accepting passes from Brunson and getting out of the way and hiding in the corner when he doesn't have the ball. I think he will mesh better with Brunson.

Once again, proving my point.
Don't Remember MR helping Randle with rebounding when he was on the Lakers and NO.
If you are using the above AStat then guess RJ should go as well.?
Let's look at the stats you are selectively using to make your point.
Of course let's ignore this stat is hampered if you are the main defensive target. Get double teamed. And only dunk when shooting.
If we look at the same criteria in 2020-21 you would have traded away Ja Morant, Anthony Edwards, Trae Young, Anthony Davis, Pascal Siakam and Demar DeRozan. All for guys that only score on alley oops and are afraid to shoot. Maybe Frank is available? Because I know Durant, Irving, Curry Greek Freak are not. Remember when I mentioned how fans love to put down their players without looking at other options or how many others actually have the qualities they are looking for?

Still waiting for the historical stat production of Obi, who you claim is a better option. And btw, still do not see the logic in using advanced stats for Randle but ignoring basic stat production for Obi. So won't just take your word for it that Obi is a better option.

Yeah, I think Barrett should take less bad shots as well. We were talking about Randle/Toppin so I didn't take the opportunity to slam RJ. RJ gets the "youth" and development pass for another season, but I would not pay him a max contract with his current numbers. I've posted on several occasions about Toppin vs Randle. His .581 eFG is solid and he is also "developing". I think with a good PG he is closer to a Shawn Marion type player and could really blossom next to Brunson. Randle has good skills, but settles for playing with his back to the basket 18 feet from the rim and has done a poor job of converting. He can be on this team, he just can't take those shots.

I know you are trying to zing me, but you kind of shot yourself in the foot. Not sure where you got your list from, but all of the folks you suggest are light years ahead of our guys in eFG.

Trae Young .536 eFG is among the best high volume, high eFG shooters in the league.
Ja Morant .530 eFG is also among the best high volume, high eFG shooters in the league.
Anthony Edwards .527 eFG. Not as high volume. No issues.
Anthony Davis .542 (actually, not as impressed as a big man, but still light years ahead of Randle)
Pascal Siakam .529 eFG
Demar Derozan .521 eFG.

Julius Randle .459 eFG.

Among high volume shooters, Randle is the worst in the league.

Zing? Not trying to zing anyone.
Just pointing out that using your logic for moving Randle would have resulted in several teams moving on from players I mentioned. Considering they were worse than Randle in usage a year prior.
So you see, maybe your usage stat is not one to focus on to evaluate anything.

Where did I get my list? Just use your link and put in same AStat for 20-21?
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced/?sort=EFG_PCT&dir=1&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&Season=2020-21&CF=FGA_PG*GE*15:POSS*GE*1000

I don’t see any of those players with an eFG as low as .459. That’s really really bad. And it is clearly poor shot selection.

Using 20/21 instead, Randle still was mediocre at best at .519 eFG and among the players that were worse in 2021, teams paid to move on from these players. Bos moved on from Kemba. SAS moved on from Derozan, Washington moved on from Wall. Houston moved on from Westbrook. Teams write checks and/or give up picks to get away from low efficiency high volume shooters. It doesn’t mean they can’t find another team and do ok. But, it’s a pretty good indicator that something isn’t working right and needs to change.

It’s one thing to be a developing player on a rookie scale contract (See Barrett, RJ) it’s another to be the lead vet on a bad team chucking up 18 footers while hitting 35%. That said, in the case of RJ, I advocated heavily to get him the ball as lead scorer, but I wasn’t really happy with what I saw. He rarely finished strong and his 3 and the FT were not consistent. The “you watching me” nonsense with the fans just made me think he had a huge ego.

I don’t think your argument that teams move on from Trae or Ja are valid. My premise that teams should move shots away from bad shooters hasn’t really be countered though. My solution of switching Toppin for Randle isn’t perfect, but it really means giving Randle’s shots to Brunson and letting Toppin receive some lobs. I can’t replace Randle’s defense with that argument though. So my options are Randle shoots less or Toppin plays more.

Point was that they were all worse and towards the bottom in the very same category you claim deems Randle expendable. Why did I use 20/21? Why did you use 21/22?

Here is the thing, we are not going to agree. You will pick stats that favor your point and I will pick stats to favor my point. Even though you have yet to point to ANY stat that would justify Obi starting over Randle. Your view that Obi would be a better starter is still just based on a hunch and hope. Coaches/FO's don't go on those. Really smart basketball guys made a decision that Randle was worth an extension. All who see the same stats we do. So far they agree with me. As did those who voted for Randle to be an All Star and most improved player.(which I am sure you can try to diminish as well) Like I said, I respect that you want to see how your hopeful will do. Hell so do I in the case of Grimes and IQ. But I am also not blind to what Randle is and that guys in front of Grimes and IQ have a longer proven track record in the NBA. .

My prediction is that Randle will still be the starting PF and our best player, Obi still won't be able to shoot but will provide high energy and ger more minutes than last year, Do agree that if playing Randle does not translate to wins, the FO will look to move on.

It’s amusing that you suggest I am relying on thoughts and feelings while you and your experience are relying on stats. The numbers you use don’t support your position.

I point to Toppin’s .581 eFG, his 20% usage, his movement without the ball.

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&CF=TEAM_ABBREVIATION*E*NYK:MIN*GE*20&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1&GroupQuantity=2

This is the Knicks 2 man Plus Minus. Look. Toppin our scores his opponents no matter who has been on the court with him.

I know the weaknesses of my argument. I admit them openly. Can he do it with volume?

My point is more that Randle isn’t working. You don’t like Toppin? Ok, let me pick someone with a higher eFG than Randle? That’s pretty much everyone. You want to keep Randle because his defense is good. Ok. Just stop him from taking so many bad shots.

Maybe coaches play bad players, GM should remove that option.

Leon Rose said in his end of year statement that they would build on the success at the end of the year. Randle and Barrett were on the bench...

At least you understand one of my points.
Now maybe try to understand how you are using an extremely small sample size(AStat) to suggest that Obi can do exactly what? Dunk at a high rate? Can he create for himself? Can he create for others? Can he shoot from mid range or long range? Can he defend? Garnish double teams to make it easier for others? Bull his way to basket and draw fouls? Not blind man.

Let me ask you a question. In your opinion, Randle cannot be part of anything successful right? ("Isn't working")
So what happened in 20/21 when we were the 4th seed with Payton and ...... ?
You want someone else? Who? You guarantee better results?
Why not go with a guy that got you the 4 and now has a PG and better pieces?

You are hung up on Obi and I am not. I am hung up on less bad shots from Randle. I like Randle’s defense. I absolutely do not want him taking the most shots on the Knicks with that efficiency. It’s black and white. You want to give him a Draymond Green role? Ok. I’m in.

Take Randle’s shooting chart and cut out the poor shooting from 12-18 feet and I am done arguing.

My argument was never about Randle not needing to improve. It was about me defending the idea that we should trade a solid player because he needs to do so. .
And whether a player with NO significant history of success should start over a recent All Star. .

For the sake of argument alone, assume that Randle’s shot selection is in fact hurting the Knicks while his defense is helping the Knicks. But, he wants a very active role in the offense and arguably “took a discount” to be part of this build. This results in his offensive shortcomings outweighing his defensive prowess as he touches the ball more on offense with mediocre results than he can impact the game on the other side of the ball. As such, lineups with him in it tend to be out scores by their opponents.

As a coach, how do you handle this player? Given his behavior after Thibs took the ball out of his hands last year, what is your plan? Hope that the addition of Brunson (as opposed to Kemba) awakens something in Randle we haven’t seen? Hope that his numbers go back to Covid season averages?

This is the part I’m struggling with. Solid player? Sure. Willing to accept a lesser role?

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/mikestheworst/status/1556818282015064064

blkexec wrote:Boo birds starting early I see. I would hate to post I told you so threads but Randle will hear this all season. Can he handle that while maintaining his professionalism? Will this impact his performance? If Obi isn’t traded, then Randle should be. Or maybe the play is to see how the roster looks and decide mid season if they should trade Randle or not.

The gamble is, if you hold on to Randle and see how he plays during the season, the other teams can see what we see too. If he reverts to last season's Randle attitude wise or performance wise (or, worse- both!) we're absolutely screwed as no one will want him. At the moment a team might take the risk that last year was an exception- two seasons on the trot is a trend. It's his mentality that concerns me the most- he had an absolute meltdown last season, it was worrying to watch (though, to be fair, I would also crack under the pressure if I was a player in Randle shoes!).

Can't take another season let alone multiple seasons of Randle griping at fans, the officials, the media, sulking with teammates, isolating himself- bball aside, it's no fun watching someone struggle like that.