Philc1 wrote:

SupremeCommander wrote:ewwwwwwwwwwww I hate this trade

Wiggins is trash and this trade would make the Warriors picks next to worthless. But at least we’d slightly upgrade at Center. What’s not to love about this trade?

We talking about this years draft. GS and the Minny pick they own.
GS looks at they have two-three HOF guys, role guys, and Wiseman and two no 1 picks. One at 7. Can they convert that to a assets they can win with a two year window.

Portland. Dame does not own a no trade clause on his contract nor leverage to say “he won’t resign”. He cant force his way anywhere. He goes where he is traded too.
He not “coming here”. He comes we get depleted.
“But KNicks are interested via reports”. I’m sure they are. So is Chicago who can send Lavine and change.
Or Wiz that can send Beal. Or Philly tat can send Simmons and change. Or Pels that can sign and trade Lonzo with mucho picks.
Knicks have to send either randle or RJ, plus picks. I’m not thrilled by what’s left but Dame is the best player moved.
Since my opinion does not weigh in My support is not needed or important.

EwingsGlass wrote:I actually think GSW rejects this trade cause they are giving up too much. So, we can disagree but I would take that trade all day and believe we committed highway robbery.

I may agree with the highway robbery part.

So here is a weird mirror test. Is GS a solid Championship contender with Curry, Clay, Wiggins, Green, Wiseman and their picks (in a vacuum trade scenario)? Is the GS FO comfortable with Thompson coming back instantly at 30 minutes per to solidify playoff seed or maybe needing a full season to get back after taking 2 years off of competitive play?

ALSO, how much is GS owner going to pay in luxury tax dollars. I haven't put that number out and I don't see anyone really taking that point on. They will be luxury tax repeaters, I think that means every dollar OVER the ~$136M point will cost them upwards of 4+ times with the range they are currently in.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/golden-state-warriors/cap/2021/

#7 salary will be $4.5 and #14 will be $3M. Round numbers: Curry $46, Clay $38, Wiggins $31, Green $24, Wiseman $9, Looney $5, couple bench dudes they keep ~$8. Without Oubre or Bazemore, that total is $167M, about $30M over luxury tax line, so their salaries will be $167M, tax hit will be about $142M ($30M * 4.75) insofar as I can understand.

When in playoffs, is the FO comfortable with rolling out Wiseman and using/trusting 2 rookies at #7, #14? prob not.

Wiseman, Wiggins, #7, #14 swap for Randle/Mitch, #19 saves GS about $120M ($142M - 22M) in luxury tax. Total Salary goes from $167 to $144 (tax calculation: $8M * 2.75) and gives them possible trade exceptions.

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/warriors/why-warriors-luxury-tax-situation-dire-2021-22-nba-season

"Oh it's dire, I think Joe Lacob even came out and said it, they're in the repeater tax," Marks said Wednesday. "So basically, this will be the fourth time in five years that they are going to be a luxury tax team. So basically, the penalty is double as far as what it's going to cost them. So if you're paying $60 million in luxury tax, it might be $120 million now. So to bring back Kelly Oubre, it might cost you $70 million on a $15 million contract, so you're paying for an $85 million player.

"That's why Bob Myers came out and said 'hey, we've got to find veteran guys' and basically gonna have to bargain shop, with minimum guys. It can be done, Brooklyn did it with Jeff Green, they traded for Bruce Brown, traded for Landry Shamet, guys like that, maybe some buyout guys here. But there eventually gets to a point, and I've been there in Brooklyn, where ownership just says 'it's too much, like the cost is too much because we're writing a check to the NBA for $200 million in luxury tax.' I know that building will bring a lot of revenue there, but the price is going to be ridiculously high, if you use that $5.9 tax million mid-level exception, it'll probably cost you an additional $30-35 million when it goes to luxury tax."

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2020/03/hoops-rumors-glossary-luxury-tax-penalties-2.html

While those are the rates that apply to most taxpayers, including the Trail Blazers, Heat, and Timberwolves this season, a team can become subject to a “repeater” penalty if it paid the tax in three of the previous four seasons. This scenario currently applies to Oklahoma City — the Thunder were a taxpaying club in 2016, 2018, and 2019, which means they’ll be a repeat offender this season. Here are the penalties that apply to repeat taxpayers:

$0-5MM above tax line: $2.50 per dollar (up to $12.5MM).
$5-10MM above tax line: $2.75 per dollar (up to $13.75MM).
$10-15MM above tax line: $3.50 per dollar (up to $17.5MM).
$15-20MM above tax line: $4.25 per dollar (up to $21.25MM).
For every additional $5MM above tax line beyond $20MM, rates increase by $0.50 per dollar
Note: This would mean $4.75 for $20-25MM, $5.25 for $25-30MM, etc.

So, now trade is Wiseman, Wiggins, #7, #14 swap for Randle/Mitch, #19, $120M in savings, possible (cause I don't know how to pull them off) trade exceptions

martin wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:I actually think GSW rejects this trade cause they are giving up too much. So, we can disagree but I would take that trade all day and believe we committed highway robbery.

I may agree with the highway robbery part.

So here is a weird mirror test. Is GS a solid Championship contender with Curry, Clay, Wiggins, Green, Wiseman and their picks (in a vacuum trade scenario)? Is the GS FO comfortable with Thompson coming back instantly at 30 minutes per to solidify playoff seed or maybe needing a full season to get back after taking 2 years off of competitive play?

ALSO, how much is GS owner going to pay in luxury tax dollars. I haven't put that number out and I don't see anyone really taking that point on. They will be luxury tax repeaters, I think that means every dollar OVER the ~$136M point will cost them upwards of 4+ times with the range they are currently in.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/golden-state-warriors/cap/2021/

#7 salary will be $4.5 and #14 will be $3M. Round numbers: Curry $46, Clay $38, Wiggins $31, Green $24, Wiseman $9, Looney $5, couple bench dudes they keep ~$8. Without Oubre or Bazemore, that total is $167M, about $30M over luxury tax line, so their salaries will be $167M, tax hit will be about $142M ($30M * 4.75) insofar as I can understand.

When in playoffs, is the FO comfortable with rolling out Wiseman and using/trusting 2 rookies at #7, #14? prob not.

Wiseman, Wiggins, #7, #14 swap for Randle/Mitch, #19 saves GS about $120M ($142M - 22M) in luxury tax. Total Salary goes from $167 to $144 (tax calculation: $8M * 2.75) and gives them possible trade exceptions.

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/warriors/why-warriors-luxury-tax-situation-dire-2021-22-nba-season

"Oh it's dire, I think Joe Lacob even came out and said it, they're in the repeater tax," Marks said Wednesday. "So basically, this will be the fourth time in five years that they are going to be a luxury tax team. So basically, the penalty is double as far as what it's going to cost them. So if you're paying $60 million in luxury tax, it might be $120 million now. So to bring back Kelly Oubre, it might cost you $70 million on a $15 million contract, so you're paying for an $85 million player.

"That's why Bob Myers came out and said 'hey, we've got to find veteran guys' and basically gonna have to bargain shop, with minimum guys. It can be done, Brooklyn did it with Jeff Green, they traded for Bruce Brown, traded for Landry Shamet, guys like that, maybe some buyout guys here. But there eventually gets to a point, and I've been there in Brooklyn, where ownership just says 'it's too much, like the cost is too much because we're writing a check to the NBA for $200 million in luxury tax.' I know that building will bring a lot of revenue there, but the price is going to be ridiculously high, if you use that $5.9 tax million mid-level exception, it'll probably cost you an additional $30-35 million when it goes to luxury tax."

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2020/03/hoops-rumors-glossary-luxury-tax-penalties-2.html

While those are the rates that apply to most taxpayers, including the Trail Blazers, Heat, and Timberwolves this season, a team can become subject to a “repeater” penalty if it paid the tax in three of the previous four seasons. This scenario currently applies to Oklahoma City — the Thunder were a taxpaying club in 2016, 2018, and 2019, which means they’ll be a repeat offender this season. Here are the penalties that apply to repeat taxpayers:

$0-5MM above tax line: $2.50 per dollar (up to $12.5MM).
$5-10MM above tax line: $2.75 per dollar (up to $13.75MM).
$10-15MM above tax line: $3.50 per dollar (up to $17.5MM).
$15-20MM above tax line: $4.25 per dollar (up to $21.25MM).
For every additional $5MM above tax line beyond $20MM, rates increase by $0.50 per dollar
Note: This would mean $4.75 for $20-25MM, $5.25 for $25-30MM, etc.

So, now trade is Wiseman, Wiggins, #7, #14 swap for Randle/Mitch, #19, $120M in savings, possible (cause I don't know how to pull them off) trade exceptions

Thanks Martin. I’ve never understood the luxury tax issue so clearly as you put it here. I had it in my head as an impetus, but you have laid it out so clearly. Short answer becomes they are getting more bang for their buck. That also pushes NY to the forefront of teams that can help them and rerun valuable players.

For me, this kind of move is acknowledging that the Randle timeline doesn’t really match the rest of the Knicks and maximizes future potential.

BigDaddyG wrote:Question, can a team sign and trade two of it's own free agents in the same deal? For example, could the Knicks re-sign Burks and Bullock and then trade the for Oubre?

that popped up for me too and I just don't know but think not

EwingsGlass wrote:https://spacecityscoop.com/2021/06/27/houston-rockets-3-trades-of-christian-wood-to-the-golden-state-warriors/4/

FWIW. Houston pundits are putting out a similar trade model with Wood instead of Randle but want more back than this trade proposal where Wiggins is being moved. Wood has a better/longer contract though (2 more years under control).

I think GSW is making a move like this and would want to be the recipient of that added value, even if it results in a soft re-start. I think Barrett is good enough to step up into this offense.

Wow those trades are even more insane than mine lol

#1 ~ I’m not sure what to make of Randle (in summary I don’t trust his decision making or shot selection + worry about the prior Achilles injury). Also don’t trust Randle/RJ as Batman/Robin

#2 - Don’t trust Mitch either - injuries, ? Attitude, lack of offensive development & contract pending

#3 - your trade creates a better age/positional fit 2-5 with RJ, Wiggins, Obi, Wiseman

#4 - leaves us with 3 viable 1srt round picks —- off top of my head Without moving up I might target Johnson/Moody at 7, Bouknight at 14 & maybe 2 Kentucky kids Jackson/Boston at 21/32

#5 - I go PG in free agency — Lonzo actually might fit nice along RJ, Wiggins/Obi/Wiseman

And figure out rest of roster during summer —- Rose may be s/t option if going young

Ball/IQ
RJ/Moody/Bouknight
Wiggins/Knox/Boston
Obi/Jackson
Wiseman/Taj

Anyway fun to goof around with stuff like this

I’m a buyer. In 2 years we will have a mega team. I’d still try to win now too

BRIGGS wrote:If we can get a try
Pick 7 14 and wiseman ( Wiggins)for Randle

I’m a buyer. In 2 years we will have a mega team. I’d still try to win now too

I've kinda started liking the idea a little more, mainly because of how I've been thinking about Wiseman's long long term potential as a floor spacer from 3. Talented centers like him with his touch are really rare. Only thing is that we'd go back to being a lottery team again and after getting a taste of what winning looks like I just don't want to go back. 2022 draft looks really enticing tho

EDIT: I still think the best option is to sit tight and roll with the picks we got. Players like Tre Mann and Ziare Williams are both projected to be at where we pick based on updated. Both have a lot of upside with 1-2 NBA ready skills. Not to mention our detroit pick. I think there's a chance at least one of them sticks and becomes a starting player.

Sambakick wrote:I love this trade ... for Golden State. They get the best player and the 19th pick is just about as likely as the 14th pick to become something.

lol

HofstraBBall wrote:

LivingLegend wrote:I really like your thought process here Martin - for a few reasons.

#1 ~ I’m not sure what to make of Randle (in summary I don’t trust his decision making or shot selection + worry about the prior Achilles injury). Also don’t trust Randle/RJ as Batman/Robin

#2 - Don’t trust Mitch either - injuries, ? Attitude, lack of offensive development & contract pending

#3 - your trade creates a better age/positional fit 2-5 with RJ, Wiggins, Obi, Wiseman

#4 - leaves us with 3 viable 1srt round picks —- off top of my head Without moving up I might target Johnson/Moody at 7, Bouknight at 14 & maybe 2 Kentucky kids Jackson/Boston at 21/32

#5 - I go PG in free agency — Lonzo actually might fit nice along RJ, Wiggins/Obi/Wiseman

And figure out rest of roster during summer —- Rose may be s/t option if going young

Ball/IQ
RJ/Moody/Bouknight
Wiggins/Knox/Boston
Obi/Jackson
Wiseman/Taj

Anyway fun to goof around with stuff like this

Do not see how this would be a good lineup? You would not have anyone that has proven to shoot the ball in the NBA? Knox as a backup? Hard to imagine since he did not make the rotation this past year? Although Wiggins had his best 3pt percentage, feel it was due to teams worrying about Curry which gave Wiggins more open looks. We won't have anyone that will do that for him on our roster. Fee the same way about Wiseman. Sure he may have a high ceiling but still too early to guarantee. I do not see Moody or Bouknight as being generational so maybe they are just a little bit better than someone else we would get at 19 and 21.

Really prefer that the Knicks keep the main components of the team that had the most success in quite some time. (Randle) Then pick up solid draft picks with 19 and 21 or use with a second to move up if they really like someone in the low to mid-teens. Then just add a solid FA. Would however be interested if GS is looking to dump Wiggins salary and we can pick up their draft picks.

I appreciate your thoughtful responses. I think the 7 pick will be valuable here. I don’t see a lot of generational talent year to year in any draft. That really can’t be the standard for evaluation. We are not giving up a generational talent.

TripleThreat has a decent take on Randle that I’ve come to accept. It isn’t that Randle isn’t possibly as good as he was last year. It’s just that he has both regression risk and contract year risk. It puts him and the Knicks in a weird position on both trade value and contract status? He really needs to perform this year to lock in his max contract. His playoff performance made that more apparent.

I like the 7 pick and the 14 pick for the Knicks. I like the idea of putting Johnnie Bryant and Kenny Payne together with someone with Donovan Mitchell or Damian Lillard potential.

Mostly, I think that it will be hard to get the additional talent needed to compete with the top tier in the short term. With that in mind, I see an opportunity with GS that the Knicks can take advantage up. We can take their draft picks for players that will not match this team’s timeline. If there is a move that accentuates Randle and this core team, I don’t need to “blow it up”, but I just wouldn’t expect this team to be better than last year if you brought back the same squad. I don’t really see enough talent on the FA market to put us into the elite tier.