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dk7th
Posts: 30006 Alba Posts: 1 Joined: 5/14/2012 Member: #4228 USA |
here's the box score with advanced stats from last night-- looks like my prescription for rose is holding up:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201611090NYK.html rose's usage was just below the 25% upper limit at 24.7%. meanwhile his assist rate was a pretty good 27.9% for a ratio of under 1----> .88:1 meantime, due to limited minutes-- a very good idea-- he shot the ball 10 times. ongoing issue, his isolation streak notwithstanding, is the non-dad melo: 22 shots is too many shots for 41%fga and 48.1%TS, and his usage was 28.1% to 8.9% assist rate for an absurd and inexcusable 3.5:1. did he help the team? this game he did, but these are fool's gold statlines that do not translate to playoff wins. the time is now to develop the right habits. knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%
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dk7th
Posts: 30006 Alba Posts: 1 Joined: 5/14/2012 Member: #4228 USA |
stats from last night's BOSTON game shows rose with usage above 25% at 26.3%. this too-high amount of ball handling is mitigated somewhat by a healthy assist rate of 38.4% for an ok ratio of .68:1, which is mediocre point guard territory along the lines of ray felton and the like. what kills his effectiveness is 3 for ten shooting. my take is that it's 50-50 when he has a usage of over 25% but with a higher assist rate, and 100% fail when his usage is both above 25% AND above his assist rate. so far that makes 8 games out of 8 games where these statistical parameters hold up, making it pretty reliable.
some may object that this is a question of equating correlation with causation-- however, when one sets up a prescription that is meant to have *predictive power*, as is the case here, then one has to consider that there is more causation to this than mere correlation. rose may have merely been part of the problem last night correlatively, but he surely didn't help the knicks either.
knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%
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dk7th
Posts: 30006 Alba Posts: 1 Joined: 5/14/2012 Member: #4228 USA |
here are the box score advanced stats for last night's TORONTO game-- rose's usage was, once again, above the 25% upper limit i prescribed for him, and at 26.1% combined with his assist rate of a paltry of 16.0% which, pretty much assures a loss every time. additionally he took 20 shots, well above the upper limit of 14 shots, which also pretty much assures a loss every time:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201611120TOR.html you can point to any other factors you want, including poor defense, but then rose, as the point guard is also primarily responsible here too. that's nine games out of nine and counting.... rose has to tighten up his game or the knicks are doomed. knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%
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