Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:Bonn, would you factor in the length of their contracts in your projections? So even if they are a wash Grant will be on a rookie deal 3 more years where Hardaway Jr will be a rfa next summer.

Yes, I would but we already lost one of those rookie contract years with Grant. If TH JR stays the same next year, he will have given 2 years of play where he outplayed his contract for Atlanta. To beat that, Grant is going to have to be a lot better starting immediately. You're right though that if they end up being comparably effective players, we will have won the trade.

This is the problem with analytics - it ignores the human elements like personality and team fit. Grant is a much better fit for this team in many ways that WS/48 doesn't reflect.

meloshouldgo wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

meloshouldgo wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

meloshouldgo wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

StarksEwing1 wrote:

newyorker4ever wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

StarksEwing1 wrote:

Vmart wrote:Last year the Knicks got grant for Hardaway. This year what do they have to trade to get into the first round.

that was a great trade by the way. I think the hawks felt timmy would do much better after a change of scenery. This year will be much tougher to get a first

TH JR played pretty well. At best, this trade is a wash. I think his stats from a 3rd year player project better than Grant's from a rookie (for example, .105 vs. 030 WS 48). There's uncertainty in the projections but statistically it looks more likely than not that Atlanta will come out with the better player.

I disagree with this. J.Grant was put in a tough situation and never got consistent minutes and put in the triangle offense with a ton of pressure and if Hornacek is allowed to play his style of offense i think we'll see a much more comfotable Grant playing in a style of offense that better suits him.

agreed. Jerian was mishandled IMO. He will be much better this year once he is given more minutes. Point guard is the most difficult position IMO from my own experiences and being a nba point guard is extremely tough and i think jerian has the tools to be pretty good

That's really generous. I think that after taking into account whatever qualifiers you want to throw in and looking at the players' production, only Knicks fans would conclude that we are more likely than Atlanta is to win the trade. If you looked at their #s and took into account those qualifiers and then called it a wash (50% each side wins the trade), I think that would be generous to us but I could respect the position. But to look at everything and say that the guy with much worse production is *likely* to end up being the better player is wishful thinking IMO.

Hardaway was pretty brutal in Atlanta. He couldn't get on the court and ended up in the d league for awhile. Budenholzer likes him so that may help him down the road but I haven't read or heard anyone say that the Hawks won that deal including the few Hawk fans that I know. Also, Hardaway only played 800+ minutes for the Hawks when he wasn't in the dl. What are you basing his apparent future success on?

I based my assessment on his production from the 54 games this season. Some stretches may have been really bad. That's why I used the full sample of games. I never said TH JR would be a very good player. I think his numbers project to a higher probability of being a useful rotation player than Grant's do. What sample are you basing Grant's apparent future success on?

I don't like using numbers in every single case. In this case the numbers can hide the true talent level of a young PG like Jerian. He's not as bad as the numbers he put up this year. Jerian clearly was being hampered by the situation he was in. He had a lot of trouble making the transition not only to the NBA but the Triangle which only made things harder. Jerian was not a shooter coming out of college and so sure his numbers looked bad for much of the season. He did demonstrate some improvement in his shooting which bodes well for him going forward.

Just watching Jerian you can see the ability he has still untapped. THJ may develop into a decent reserve for ATL, so they may be happy with the trade but I think Jerian has the potential to be a more impactful player for the Knicks. We'll see how things go for him starting next year. I'm expecting a much different performance from Jerian next year.

This is am incredible amount of rationalizing. You may not want to use the numbers but to look at real performance data and use spin to rationalize it away will not lead to good decisions in the future. Taking a POV that Jerian was in s a bad situation and can improve and THJ wasn't and can't is not based on anything concrete.

In another thread you used 'body language' as a basis for your position.

Yes dear. I used body language as gauge of a person's emotions. I am looking at data to judge actual performance in the court. If the NBA stats tracking stats on what emotions players are feeling, I will happily use those as well.

This was the conversation. YOur response seems condescending so I thought I would post it.

The issue was money. Lin got a monster offer and took it. Just curious, what are you basing your claim that Melo chased Lin out?
I am basing it on what I saw in Melo's body language when the crowds were going nuts for Lin, then on how he was pouting because Lin had the guts and brains to look him off instead of blindly handling him the ball. And his well documented refusal to play teamball for Mike D'Antoni right after Linsanity

Sorry but that argument was far from convincing or fact based for me.
http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=54358&page=2

Yes, and there's still no contradiction in what I posted. You can't make a fact based assessment of how someone feels. If your standard for Melo being jealous is a newspaper articles or Melo saying he was jealous then we have little to discuss. What would you consider convincing argument for someone feeling jealous? I was willing to walk away from that thread, but I guess you need to bring it back up.

The standard would be not to speak for another person. If you were apart of the locker room, practices, bench, one of the coaches, spoke to Carmelo personally. Something along those lines which let you actually be around the team on a day to day basis. Then maybe that opinion would be more valid. The on the couch analysis though is lacking plenty of substance.

Carmelo came back from injury took 11 shots, dished 6 ast and had a lower usage then Lin. And we lost to the Nets. That's not the demonstration of someone refusing to play team ball for MDA or being jealous of Lin. Pouting after look offs would have to be reexamined as there are to many scenarios that go with that.

Post game vs the Hawks night before Mia. Start at 0.31. Hmmmm

yellowboy90 wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:Bonn, would you factor in the length of their contracts in your projections? So even if they are a wash Grant will be on a rookie deal 3 more years where Hardaway Jr will be a rfa next summer.

Yes, I would but we already lost one of those rookie contract years with Grant. If TH JR stays the same next year, he will have given 2 years of play where he outplayed his contract for Atlanta. To beat that, Grant is going to have to be a lot better starting immediately. You're right though that if they end up being comparably effective players, we will have won the trade.

I just am not sure if I trust the less than 900 minutes of play. That is too small of a sample. Grant was pretty bad last year but a lot of rookies have bad years. I think ext year we'll be able to see how good of a trade it was.

JH seems to be more guard orientated. I could see him looking to do some things with Grans skill set. Fisher spent a lot of the early part of the yr looking to feature and develop KP a lot.

Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:Bonn, would you factor in the length of their contracts in your projections? So even if they are a wash Grant will be on a rookie deal 3 more years where Hardaway Jr will be a rfa next summer.

Yes, I would but we already lost one of those rookie contract years with Grant. If TH JR stays the same next year, he will have given 2 years of play where he outplayed his contract for Atlanta. To beat that, Grant is going to have to be a lot better starting immediately. You're right though that if they end up being comparably effective players, we will have won the trade.

I just am not sure if I trust the less than 900 minutes of play. That is too small of a sample. Grant was pretty bad last year but a lot of rookies have bad years. I think ext year we'll be able to see how good of a trade it was.

Yeah, that's why I said there's huge uncertainty. The only options are to use 900 or 0 minutes of data. I wasn't objecting to calling it a wash or too early to make a call. I was objecting to simply saying we won the trade.

I can understand that.

fishmike wrote:

crzymdups wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:Bonn, would you factor in the length of their contracts in your projections? So even if they are a wash Grant will be on a rookie deal 3 more years where Hardaway Jr will be a rfa next summer.

Yes, I would but we already lost one of those rookie contract years with Grant. If TH JR stays the same next year, he will have given 2 years of play where he outplayed his contract for Atlanta. To beat that, Grant is going to have to be a lot better starting immediately. You're right though that if they end up being comparably effective players, we will have won the trade.

This is the problem with analytics - it ignores the human elements like personality and team fit. Grant is a much better fit for this team in many ways that WS/48 doesn't reflect.

knowing JH's heavy guard sets and multitudes of P&R sets if you arent excited that Grant is a Knick you really just arent paying attention. Not only does Grant pop this year but I bet he pops quickly. Like training camp quickly. Easy political pick also.. starting at G-> Phil's draft day swing. The question is who plays off him. Do we sign someone? Trade? Draft? Jose ???

JH is a really good fit for what we currently have. Slashing guards and every big can hit a jumper. I fully expect to see our guards simply play better.

so do you think that Grant pops despite not developing a consistent (enough) jumper? Or are you pretty certain that he develops into a decent shooter?

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:

fishmike wrote:

crzymdups wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:Bonn, would you factor in the length of their contracts in your projections? So even if they are a wash Grant will be on a rookie deal 3 more years where Hardaway Jr will be a rfa next summer.

Yes, I would but we already lost one of those rookie contract years with Grant. If TH JR stays the same next year, he will have given 2 years of play where he outplayed his contract for Atlanta. To beat that, Grant is going to have to be a lot better starting immediately. You're right though that if they end up being comparably effective players, we will have won the trade.

This is the problem with analytics - it ignores the human elements like personality and team fit. Grant is a much better fit for this team in many ways that WS/48 doesn't reflect.

knowing JH's heavy guard sets and multitudes of P&R sets if you arent excited that Grant is a Knick you really just arent paying attention. Not only does Grant pop this year but I bet he pops quickly. Like training camp quickly. Easy political pick also.. starting at G-> Phil's draft day swing. The question is who plays off him. Do we sign someone? Trade? Draft? Jose ???

JH is a really good fit for what we currently have. Slashing guards and every big can hit a jumper. I fully expect to see our guards simply play better.

so do you think that Grant pops despite not developing a consistent (enough) jumper? Or are you pretty certain that he develops into a decent shooter?

His jumper looks fine to me!!! What we saw late in the year was developing long before he got to start. Jerian worked on his shot and got better. I expect more improvement next year.

yellowboy90 wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:

fishmike wrote:

crzymdups wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:Bonn, would you factor in the length of their contracts in your projections? So even if they are a wash Grant will be on a rookie deal 3 more years where Hardaway Jr will be a rfa next summer.

Yes, I would but we already lost one of those rookie contract years with Grant. If TH JR stays the same next year, he will have given 2 years of play where he outplayed his contract for Atlanta. To beat that, Grant is going to have to be a lot better starting immediately. You're right though that if they end up being comparably effective players, we will have won the trade.

This is the problem with analytics - it ignores the human elements like personality and team fit. Grant is a much better fit for this team in many ways that WS/48 doesn't reflect.

knowing JH's heavy guard sets and multitudes of P&R sets if you arent excited that Grant is a Knick you really just arent paying attention. Not only does Grant pop this year but I bet he pops quickly. Like training camp quickly. Easy political pick also.. starting at G-> Phil's draft day swing. The question is who plays off him. Do we sign someone? Trade? Draft? Jose ???

JH is a really good fit for what we currently have. Slashing guards and every big can hit a jumper. I fully expect to see our guards simply play better.

so do you think that Grant pops despite not developing a consistent (enough) jumper? Or are you pretty certain that he develops into a decent shooter?

His jumper looks fine to me!!! What we saw late in the year was developing long before he got to start. Jerian worked on his shot and got better. I expect more improvement next year.

How late in the year are you talking about? It's not obvious to me from his game log unless you're just talking about the last 4 games of the season.

February, March, & April his combined TS% is pretty good

BRIGGS wrote:The value in this draft is in rd 2. The only 3 guys Id trade in using a restricted pick is Thon Maker Denzel Valentine or Malik Beasley--aftre that I think we can hit gold buying 2-3 2nd rounders---I really believe there are a BUNCH of 1st rounders in previous years sitting in rd 2. If your not going to have a pick--this is it it because there will be teams who do better in rd 1 then some teams with very high picks.

agreed

I just posted a topic regarding Knicks plans and Draft picking in general planning.

My concern is that whom responsibility is for these Deals Or possibilities ? to acquire or buy draft ?
is this strictly pres Phil J ? or does inputs from Draft scouts and folks for assessing players and developing (aka Allan Houston)
are those persons involved ? if I am Knick mgt. I'd be mad & ticked off as hell that the crap happens over & over where we give
away drafting as oppose to learning from it to get better through NBA Drafting.

Bonn1997 wrote:

SupremeCommander wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:Bonn, would you factor in the length of their contracts in your projections? So even if they are a wash Grant will be on a rookie deal 3 more years where Hardaway Jr will be a rfa next summer.

Yes, I would but we already lost one of those rookie contract years with Grant. If TH JR stays the same next year, he will have given 2 years of play where he outplayed his contract for Atlanta. To beat that, Grant is going to have to be a lot better starting immediately. You're right though that if they end up being comparably effective players, we will have won the trade.

I don't think comparing year one to year three is fair at all. Good players improve dramatically from their freshman season to their sophomore and then to their third... your analysis doesn't allow Grant that chance and ignores the fact that Hardaway Jr hasn't improved as a player. His rookie season was his best one without a doubt. His career PER went from 12.7 to 12.1 to 11.7. Bleh

I was doing my best to take into account year of play and indicated the huge amount of uncertainty. The average player with a WS 48 of .030 (Grant) in year 1 definitely does not reach .105 (TH JR's) by year 3. I'm sure a small minority do though. It's a misreading of my view to say I don't allow for the possibility Grant will improve at a fast rate.

I don't believe so at all -- you're comparing apples to oranges