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Blake Griffin 1 for 2 FT's today
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holfresh
Posts: 38679
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5/17/2015  11:32 PM    LAST EDITED: 5/17/2015  11:33 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
mreinman wrote:@holfresh

I completely missed your point.

Edit: I see now ... I think that the misses are more costly.

Again, look at the Harden vs Blake numbers. How did Blake have a higher TS?

No, as in the example above..2-2 free throws = 2 pts = TS%113.6...FG 1-1 = 2pts TS%100..As in the player examples posted above..Thus 2pts at the ft line is more valuable than 2 pts scored on the court..Simple stuff..I'm not sure why you can't understand that...A 3 pointer, FG 1-1= TS%150..Can't make this sh!t up...So Harden can go 7-20 every game..Hit some ft and keep jacking threes, Morey will show u the vault...

Plug the values I have into your formula and see the results for yourself...Please do tell me the findings..I hope you are seated..


Scoring at the line *is* more valuable than from the field. You're getting the opposing team in foul trouble.
If Melo's being guarded by Lebron and you give me the choice of Melo making an FG or getting a foul on Lebron (and making both FTs), I'll take the latter.

I'm looking at numerical value while you are looking at strategic value..How does one quantify strategic value?


Well, numerically, the issue is that the average free throw uses up 0.44 possessions. That's because sometimes a player will go to the line without a possession being used up (a technical or flagrant) and other times 3 FTs = 1 possession. Also, if you make the FG and get fouled, the 1 FTA doesn't use up any possessions - the 1 FGA already does. So the .44 value works correctly with a large sample. There isn't enough data in the box score to actually check how many possessions each FT did take up. You have to use this general conversion rate.

So included in the formula is the FG attempts that aren't counted by traditional stats that I keep bringing up..So saying that Harden scored 31 pts on 20 shots isn't what is represented in TS%..In this particular case, TS% says he took 28 shots..(.44X18)..Some one needs to break this to mreinman..I hope he is seated..

That's correct (except I'd use the term possessions rather than shots).
Note that 31 points on 28 possessions is fairly good, though. Mreinman never said they weren't possessions. He said they weren't shots.
I do agree with you that there are much better stats than points per shot though.

Shot attempts/possessions same thing..U guys just want to speak differently in your exclusive boys club..Enjoy..


WTF? I thought we were having a serious, respectful discussion.

Take it easy..humor..try it..u know Metrics..not meant as an insult, trust me..

AUTOADVERT
Bonn1997
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5/17/2015  11:33 PM
OK - fair enough
dk7th
Posts: 30006
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5/17/2015  11:35 PM
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
mreinman wrote:@holfresh

I completely missed your point.

Edit: I see now ... I think that the misses are more costly.

Again, look at the Harden vs Blake numbers. How did Blake have a higher TS?

No, as in the example above..2-2 free throws = 2 pts = TS%113.6...FG 1-1 = 2pts TS%100..As in the player examples posted above..Thus 2pts at the ft line is more valuable than 2 pts scored on the court..Simple stuff..I'm not sure why you can't understand that...A 3 pointer, FG 1-1= TS%150..Can't make this sh!t up...So Harden can go 7-20 every game..Hit some ft and keep jacking threes, Morey will show u the vault...

Plug the values I have into your formula and see the results for yourself...Please do tell me the findings..I hope you are seated..


Scoring at the line *is* more valuable than from the field. You're getting the opposing team in foul trouble.
If Melo's being guarded by Lebron and you give me the choice of Melo making an FG or getting a foul on Lebron (and making both FTs), I'll take the latter.

I'm looking at numerical value while you are looking at strategic value..How does one quantify strategic value?


Well, numerically, the issue is that the average free throw uses up 0.44 possessions. That's because sometimes a player will go to the line without a possession being used up (a technical or flagrant) and other times 3 FTs = 1 possession. Also, if you make the FG and get fouled, the 1 FTA doesn't use up any possessions - the 1 FGA already does. So the .44 value works correctly with a large sample. There isn't enough data in the box score to actually check how many possessions each FT did take up. You have to use this general conversion rate.

So included in the formula is the FG attempts that aren't counted by traditional stats that I keep bringing up..So saying that Harden scored 31 pts on 20 shots isn't what is represented in TS%..In this particular case, TS% says he took 28 shots..(.44X18)..Some one needs to break this to mreinman..I hope he is seated..

That's correct (except I'd use the term possessions rather than shots).
Note that 31 points on 28 possessions is fairly good, though. Mreinman never said they weren't possessions. He said they weren't shots.
I do agree with you that there are much better stats than points per shot though.

Shot attempts/possessions same thing..U guys just want to speak differently in your exclusive boys club..Enjoy..

what would you rather have harden do?

knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%
holfresh
Posts: 38679
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Joined: 1/14/2006
Member: #1081

5/17/2015  11:38 PM
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
mreinman wrote:@holfresh

I completely missed your point.

Edit: I see now ... I think that the misses are more costly.

Again, look at the Harden vs Blake numbers. How did Blake have a higher TS?

No, as in the example above..2-2 free throws = 2 pts = TS%113.6...FG 1-1 = 2pts TS%100..As in the player examples posted above..Thus 2pts at the ft line is more valuable than 2 pts scored on the court..Simple stuff..I'm not sure why you can't understand that...A 3 pointer, FG 1-1= TS%150..Can't make this sh!t up...So Harden can go 7-20 every game..Hit some ft and keep jacking threes, Morey will show u the vault...

Plug the values I have into your formula and see the results for yourself...Please do tell me the findings..I hope you are seated..


Scoring at the line *is* more valuable than from the field. You're getting the opposing team in foul trouble.
If Melo's being guarded by Lebron and you give me the choice of Melo making an FG or getting a foul on Lebron (and making both FTs), I'll take the latter.

I'm looking at numerical value while you are looking at strategic value..How does one quantify strategic value?


Well, numerically, the issue is that the average free throw uses up 0.44 possessions. That's because sometimes a player will go to the line without a possession being used up (a technical or flagrant) and other times 3 FTs = 1 possession. Also, if you make the FG and get fouled, the 1 FTA doesn't use up any possessions - the 1 FGA already does. So the .44 value works correctly with a large sample. There isn't enough data in the box score to actually check how many possessions each FT did take up. You have to use this general conversion rate.

So included in the formula is the FG attempts that aren't counted by traditional stats that I keep bringing up..So saying that Harden scored 31 pts on 20 shots isn't what is represented in TS%..In this particular case, TS% says he took 28 shots..(.44X18)..Some one needs to break this to mreinman..I hope he is seated..

That's correct (except I'd use the term possessions rather than shots).
Note that 31 points on 28 possessions is fairly good, though. Mreinman never said they weren't possessions. He said they weren't shots.
I do agree with you that there are much better stats than points per shot though.

Shot attempts/possessions same thing..U guys just want to speak differently in your exclusive boys club..Enjoy..

what would you rather have harden do?


Nothing..Harden is fine..Its you guys trying to tell me I'm watching efficiency..Save it please..
mreinman
Posts: 37827
Alba Posts: 1
Joined: 7/14/2010
Member: #3189

5/17/2015  11:42 PM
holfresh wrote:
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
mreinman wrote:@holfresh

I completely missed your point.

Edit: I see now ... I think that the misses are more costly.

Again, look at the Harden vs Blake numbers. How did Blake have a higher TS?

No, as in the example above..2-2 free throws = 2 pts = TS%113.6...FG 1-1 = 2pts TS%100..As in the player examples posted above..Thus 2pts at the ft line is more valuable than 2 pts scored on the court..Simple stuff..I'm not sure why you can't understand that...A 3 pointer, FG 1-1= TS%150..Can't make this sh!t up...So Harden can go 7-20 every game..Hit some ft and keep jacking threes, Morey will show u the vault...

Plug the values I have into your formula and see the results for yourself...Please do tell me the findings..I hope you are seated..


Scoring at the line *is* more valuable than from the field. You're getting the opposing team in foul trouble.
If Melo's being guarded by Lebron and you give me the choice of Melo making an FG or getting a foul on Lebron (and making both FTs), I'll take the latter.

I'm looking at numerical value while you are looking at strategic value..How does one quantify strategic value?


Well, numerically, the issue is that the average free throw uses up 0.44 possessions. That's because sometimes a player will go to the line without a possession being used up (a technical or flagrant) and other times 3 FTs = 1 possession. Also, if you make the FG and get fouled, the 1 FTA doesn't use up any possessions - the 1 FGA already does. So the .44 value works correctly with a large sample. There isn't enough data in the box score to actually check how many possessions each FT did take up. You have to use this general conversion rate.

So included in the formula is the FG attempts that aren't counted by traditional stats that I keep bringing up..So saying that Harden scored 31 pts on 20 shots isn't what is represented in TS%..In this particular case, TS% says he took 28 shots..(.44X18)..Some one needs to break this to mreinman..I hope he is seated..

That's correct (except I'd use the term possessions rather than shots).
Note that 31 points on 28 possessions is fairly good, though. Mreinman never said they weren't possessions. He said they weren't shots.
I do agree with you that there are much better stats than points per shot though.

Shot attempts/possessions same thing..U guys just want to speak differently in your exclusive boys club..Enjoy..

what would you rather have harden do?


Nothing..Harden is fine..Its you guys trying to tell me I'm watching efficiency..Save it please..

I am sure that you already know his WS48 for this post season.

maybe you should have that as homework for tomorrow.

looking forward :-)

so here is what phil is thinking ....
holfresh
Posts: 38679
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5/17/2015  11:55 PM
mreinman wrote:
holfresh wrote:
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
mreinman wrote:@holfresh

I completely missed your point.

Edit: I see now ... I think that the misses are more costly.

Again, look at the Harden vs Blake numbers. How did Blake have a higher TS?

No, as in the example above..2-2 free throws = 2 pts = TS%113.6...FG 1-1 = 2pts TS%100..As in the player examples posted above..Thus 2pts at the ft line is more valuable than 2 pts scored on the court..Simple stuff..I'm not sure why you can't understand that...A 3 pointer, FG 1-1= TS%150..Can't make this sh!t up...So Harden can go 7-20 every game..Hit some ft and keep jacking threes, Morey will show u the vault...

Plug the values I have into your formula and see the results for yourself...Please do tell me the findings..I hope you are seated..


Scoring at the line *is* more valuable than from the field. You're getting the opposing team in foul trouble.
If Melo's being guarded by Lebron and you give me the choice of Melo making an FG or getting a foul on Lebron (and making both FTs), I'll take the latter.

I'm looking at numerical value while you are looking at strategic value..How does one quantify strategic value?


Well, numerically, the issue is that the average free throw uses up 0.44 possessions. That's because sometimes a player will go to the line without a possession being used up (a technical or flagrant) and other times 3 FTs = 1 possession. Also, if you make the FG and get fouled, the 1 FTA doesn't use up any possessions - the 1 FGA already does. So the .44 value works correctly with a large sample. There isn't enough data in the box score to actually check how many possessions each FT did take up. You have to use this general conversion rate.

So included in the formula is the FG attempts that aren't counted by traditional stats that I keep bringing up..So saying that Harden scored 31 pts on 20 shots isn't what is represented in TS%..In this particular case, TS% says he took 28 shots..(.44X18)..Some one needs to break this to mreinman..I hope he is seated..

That's correct (except I'd use the term possessions rather than shots).
Note that 31 points on 28 possessions is fairly good, though. Mreinman never said they weren't possessions. He said they weren't shots.
I do agree with you that there are much better stats than points per shot though.

Shot attempts/possessions same thing..U guys just want to speak differently in your exclusive boys club..Enjoy..

what would you rather have harden do?


Nothing..Harden is fine..Its you guys trying to tell me I'm watching efficiency..Save it please..

I am sure that you already know his WS48 for this post season.

maybe you should have that as homework for tomorrow.

looking forward :-)

Ft more valuable..night night..

Bonn1997
Posts: 58654
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Joined: 2/2/2004
Member: #581
USA
5/18/2015  7:31 AM    LAST EDITED: 5/18/2015  9:03 AM
holfresh wrote:
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
mreinman wrote:@holfresh

I completely missed your point.

Edit: I see now ... I think that the misses are more costly.

Again, look at the Harden vs Blake numbers. How did Blake have a higher TS?

No, as in the example above..2-2 free throws = 2 pts = TS%113.6...FG 1-1 = 2pts TS%100..As in the player examples posted above..Thus 2pts at the ft line is more valuable than 2 pts scored on the court..Simple stuff..I'm not sure why you can't understand that...A 3 pointer, FG 1-1= TS%150..Can't make this sh!t up...So Harden can go 7-20 every game..Hit some ft and keep jacking threes, Morey will show u the vault...

Plug the values I have into your formula and see the results for yourself...Please do tell me the findings..I hope you are seated..


Scoring at the line *is* more valuable than from the field. You're getting the opposing team in foul trouble.
If Melo's being guarded by Lebron and you give me the choice of Melo making an FG or getting a foul on Lebron (and making both FTs), I'll take the latter.

I'm looking at numerical value while you are looking at strategic value..How does one quantify strategic value?


Well, numerically, the issue is that the average free throw uses up 0.44 possessions. That's because sometimes a player will go to the line without a possession being used up (a technical or flagrant) and other times 3 FTs = 1 possession. Also, if you make the FG and get fouled, the 1 FTA doesn't use up any possessions - the 1 FGA already does. So the .44 value works correctly with a large sample. There isn't enough data in the box score to actually check how many possessions each FT did take up. You have to use this general conversion rate.

So included in the formula is the FG attempts that aren't counted by traditional stats that I keep bringing up..So saying that Harden scored 31 pts on 20 shots isn't what is represented in TS%..In this particular case, TS% says he took 28 shots..(.44X18)..Some one needs to break this to mreinman..I hope he is seated..

That's correct (except I'd use the term possessions rather than shots).
Note that 31 points on 28 possessions is fairly good, though. Mreinman never said they weren't possessions. He said they weren't shots.
I do agree with you that there are much better stats than points per shot though.

Shot attempts/possessions same thing..U guys just want to speak differently in your exclusive boys club..Enjoy..

what would you rather have harden do?


Nothing..Harden is fine..Its you guys trying to tell me I'm watching efficiency..Save it please..

You yourself said that Harden had 31 points on 28 possessions. That's 111 points per 100 possessions. It's below Harden's average but it's still good. That number over the course of a full season would put him just outside of the top 20 in the league.
callmened
Posts: 24448
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5/18/2015  9:48 AM
Doc the GM should be fired. Here were his recent acquisitions to improve his team: Jordan Farmar, Byron Mullins, Stephen Jackson, Chris Douglas Roberts, Spencer Hawes, Glen Davis, Hedu Turkaglu, Jordan Hamilton, Nate Robinson and Austin Rivers.

Most likely after the resign Deandre Jordan (to a big contract), they will only have the $3 mill mid level exception to improve their team. So basically they cant improve their team.
PG CP3 - excellent yr but approaching 30
SG JJ Redick - greater shooter who got tired defending Harden
SF Barnes - old
PF Griffin - in his prime; is this it though?
C Jordan - in his prime
---------------------
PG/SG Rivers - not good
SG Crawford - was always overrated but now approaching age 35
SF Turkaglu - surprised hes still in the league
PF Baby Davis - cant jump or score
C Spencer Hawes - paper soft big man

Knicks should be improved: win about 40 games and maybe sneak into the playoffs. Melo, Rose and even Noah will have some nice moments however this team should be about PORZINGUS. the sooner they make him the primary player, the better
mreinman
Posts: 37827
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5/18/2015  9:51 AM
callmened wrote:Doc the GM should be fired. Here were his recent acquisitions to improve his team: Jordan Farmar, Byron Mullins, Stephen Jackson, Chris Douglas Roberts, Spencer Hawes, Glen Davis, Hedu Turkaglu, Jordan Hamilton, Nate Robinson and Austin Rivers.

Most likely after the resign Deandre Jordan (to a big contract), they will only have the $3 mill mid level exception to improve their team. So basically they cant improve their team.
PG CP3 - excellent yr but approaching 30
SG JJ Redick - greater shooter who got tired defending Harden
SF Barnes - old
PF Griffin - in his prime; is this it though?
C Jordan - in his prime
---------------------
PG/SG Rivers - not good
SG Crawford - was always overrated but now approaching age 35
SF Turkaglu - surprised hes still in the league
PF Baby Davis - cant jump or score
C Spencer Hawes - paper soft big man

here too? :-)

so here is what phil is thinking ....
callmened
Posts: 24448
Alba Posts: 1
Joined: 5/26/2012
Member: #4234

5/18/2015  10:08 AM
mreinman wrote:
callmened wrote:Doc the GM should be fired. Here were his recent acquisitions to improve his team: Jordan Farmar, Byron Mullins, Stephen Jackson, Chris Douglas Roberts, Spencer Hawes, Glen Davis, Hedu Turkaglu, Jordan Hamilton, Nate Robinson and Austin Rivers.

Most likely after the resign Deandre Jordan (to a big contract), they will only have the $3 mill mid level exception to improve their team. So basically they cant improve their team.
PG CP3 - excellent yr but approaching 30
SG JJ Redick - greater shooter who got tired defending Harden
SF Barnes - old
PF Griffin - in his prime; is this it though?
C Jordan - in his prime
---------------------
PG/SG Rivers - not good
SG Crawford - was always overrated but now approaching age 35
SF Turkaglu - surprised hes still in the league
PF Baby Davis - cant jump or score
C Spencer Hawes - paper soft big man

here too? :-)

ha! my bad. i wasnt sure where to post it. lol. people ignore my posts anyways.lol

Knicks should be improved: win about 40 games and maybe sneak into the playoffs. Melo, Rose and even Noah will have some nice moments however this team should be about PORZINGUS. the sooner they make him the primary player, the better
holfresh
Posts: 38679
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Joined: 1/14/2006
Member: #1081

5/18/2015  10:08 AM
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
mreinman wrote:@holfresh

I completely missed your point.

Edit: I see now ... I think that the misses are more costly.

Again, look at the Harden vs Blake numbers. How did Blake have a higher TS?

No, as in the example above..2-2 free throws = 2 pts = TS%113.6...FG 1-1 = 2pts TS%100..As in the player examples posted above..Thus 2pts at the ft line is more valuable than 2 pts scored on the court..Simple stuff..I'm not sure why you can't understand that...A 3 pointer, FG 1-1= TS%150..Can't make this sh!t up...So Harden can go 7-20 every game..Hit some ft and keep jacking threes, Morey will show u the vault...

Plug the values I have into your formula and see the results for yourself...Please do tell me the findings..I hope you are seated..


Scoring at the line *is* more valuable than from the field. You're getting the opposing team in foul trouble.
If Melo's being guarded by Lebron and you give me the choice of Melo making an FG or getting a foul on Lebron (and making both FTs), I'll take the latter.

I'm looking at numerical value while you are looking at strategic value..How does one quantify strategic value?


Well, numerically, the issue is that the average free throw uses up 0.44 possessions. That's because sometimes a player will go to the line without a possession being used up (a technical or flagrant) and other times 3 FTs = 1 possession. Also, if you make the FG and get fouled, the 1 FTA doesn't use up any possessions - the 1 FGA already does. So the .44 value works correctly with a large sample. There isn't enough data in the box score to actually check how many possessions each FT did take up. You have to use this general conversion rate.

So included in the formula is the FG attempts that aren't counted by traditional stats that I keep bringing up..So saying that Harden scored 31 pts on 20 shots isn't what is represented in TS%..In this particular case, TS% says he took 28 shots..(.44X18)..Some one needs to break this to mreinman..I hope he is seated..

That's correct (except I'd use the term possessions rather than shots).
Note that 31 points on 28 possessions is fairly good, though. Mreinman never said they weren't possessions. He said they weren't shots.
I do agree with you that there are much better stats than points per shot though.

Shot attempts/possessions same thing..U guys just want to speak differently in your exclusive boys club..Enjoy..

what would you rather have harden do?


Nothing..Harden is fine..Its you guys trying to tell me I'm watching efficiency..Save it please..

You yourself said that Harden had 31 points on 28 possessions. That's 111 points per 100 possessions. It's below Harden's average but it's still good. That number over the course of a full season would put him just outside of the top 20 in the league.

I was more questioning the methodology of analyzing Harden's numbers where ft is more highly valued..But 7-20 is 35% in the conventional world..U are trying to put lipstick on a pig...

mreinman
Posts: 37827
Alba Posts: 1
Joined: 7/14/2010
Member: #3189

5/18/2015  10:40 AM
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
mreinman wrote:@holfresh

I completely missed your point.

Edit: I see now ... I think that the misses are more costly.

Again, look at the Harden vs Blake numbers. How did Blake have a higher TS?

No, as in the example above..2-2 free throws = 2 pts = TS%113.6...FG 1-1 = 2pts TS%100..As in the player examples posted above..Thus 2pts at the ft line is more valuable than 2 pts scored on the court..Simple stuff..I'm not sure why you can't understand that...A 3 pointer, FG 1-1= TS%150..Can't make this sh!t up...So Harden can go 7-20 every game..Hit some ft and keep jacking threes, Morey will show u the vault...

Plug the values I have into your formula and see the results for yourself...Please do tell me the findings..I hope you are seated..


Scoring at the line *is* more valuable than from the field. You're getting the opposing team in foul trouble.
If Melo's being guarded by Lebron and you give me the choice of Melo making an FG or getting a foul on Lebron (and making both FTs), I'll take the latter.

I'm looking at numerical value while you are looking at strategic value..How does one quantify strategic value?


Well, numerically, the issue is that the average free throw uses up 0.44 possessions. That's because sometimes a player will go to the line without a possession being used up (a technical or flagrant) and other times 3 FTs = 1 possession. Also, if you make the FG and get fouled, the 1 FTA doesn't use up any possessions - the 1 FGA already does. So the .44 value works correctly with a large sample. There isn't enough data in the box score to actually check how many possessions each FT did take up. You have to use this general conversion rate.

So included in the formula is the FG attempts that aren't counted by traditional stats that I keep bringing up..So saying that Harden scored 31 pts on 20 shots isn't what is represented in TS%..In this particular case, TS% says he took 28 shots..(.44X18)..Some one needs to break this to mreinman..I hope he is seated..

That's correct (except I'd use the term possessions rather than shots).
Note that 31 points on 28 possessions is fairly good, though. Mreinman never said they weren't possessions. He said they weren't shots.
I do agree with you that there are much better stats than points per shot though.

Shot attempts/possessions same thing..U guys just want to speak differently in your exclusive boys club..Enjoy..

what would you rather have harden do?


Nothing..Harden is fine..Its you guys trying to tell me I'm watching efficiency..Save it please..

You yourself said that Harden had 31 points on 28 possessions. That's 111 points per 100 possessions. It's below Harden's average but it's still good. That number over the course of a full season would put him just outside of the top 20 in the league.

I was more questioning the methodology of analyzing Harden's numbers where ft is more highly valued..But 7-20 is 35% in the conventional world..U are trying to put lipstick on a pig...

Ah .... the double standard .... lipstick on a pig (I like how that sounds)

X=player who can do no wrong and who shall remain nameless

PPG
Harden = 26.7
x = 28.9

FG (your fav stat that was made famous in the 1800's)
Harden = 42.6
X = 40.6 (lipstick on pig?)

eFg (even you probably don't ignore this one)
Harden = 49.8
X = 43.4 (oy vey)

TS (the gold standard (for those who are not on gilligan's island))
Harden = 61.8
X = 49.7

Assists
Harden = 8.0
X = 2.3

FTA
Harden - 10.4
X = 7.3

Rebounds
Harden = 4.8
X = 6.6 (yipeeeeeeee he got this one)

WS48 (ouch ... stay away from the fancy stuff)
Harden = .203
X = .114

maybe algebra, X, and math are not my thing ... but I do smell something funny.

Whats lipstick on a pig for one is kate upton to another (with rosy shades)

so here is what phil is thinking ....
holfresh
Posts: 38679
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Joined: 1/14/2006
Member: #1081

5/18/2015  10:42 AM
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
mreinman wrote:@holfresh

I completely missed your point.

Edit: I see now ... I think that the misses are more costly.

Again, look at the Harden vs Blake numbers. How did Blake have a higher TS?

No, as in the example above..2-2 free throws = 2 pts = TS%113.6...FG 1-1 = 2pts TS%100..As in the player examples posted above..Thus 2pts at the ft line is more valuable than 2 pts scored on the court..Simple stuff..I'm not sure why you can't understand that...A 3 pointer, FG 1-1= TS%150..Can't make this sh!t up...So Harden can go 7-20 every game..Hit some ft and keep jacking threes, Morey will show u the vault...

Plug the values I have into your formula and see the results for yourself...Please do tell me the findings..I hope you are seated..


Scoring at the line *is* more valuable than from the field. You're getting the opposing team in foul trouble.
If Melo's being guarded by Lebron and you give me the choice of Melo making an FG or getting a foul on Lebron (and making both FTs), I'll take the latter.

I'm looking at numerical value while you are looking at strategic value..How does one quantify strategic value?


Well, numerically, the issue is that the average free throw uses up 0.44 possessions. That's because sometimes a player will go to the line without a possession being used up (a technical or flagrant) and other times 3 FTs = 1 possession. Also, if you make the FG and get fouled, the 1 FTA doesn't use up any possessions - the 1 FGA already does. So the .44 value works correctly with a large sample. There isn't enough data in the box score to actually check how many possessions each FT did take up. You have to use this general conversion rate.

So included in the formula is the FG attempts that aren't counted by traditional stats that I keep bringing up..So saying that Harden scored 31 pts on 20 shots isn't what is represented in TS%..In this particular case, TS% says he took 28 shots..(.44X18)..Some one needs to break this to mreinman..I hope he is seated..

That's correct (except I'd use the term possessions rather than shots).
Note that 31 points on 28 possessions is fairly good, though. Mreinman never said they weren't possessions. He said they weren't shots.
I do agree with you that there are much better stats than points per shot though.

Shot attempts/possessions same thing..U guys just want to speak differently in your exclusive boys club..Enjoy..

what would you rather have harden do?


Nothing..Harden is fine..Its you guys trying to tell me I'm watching efficiency..Save it please..

You yourself said that Harden had 31 points on 28 possessions. That's 111 points per 100 possessions. It's below Harden's average but it's still good. That number over the course of a full season would put him just outside of the top 20 in the league.

I was more questioning the methodology of analyzing Harden's numbers where ft is more highly valued..But 7-20 is 35% in the conventional world..U are trying to put lipstick on a pig...

His overall offense was efficient and that was carried by his FT dominance. His FG% was bad. It's like having a good overall week despite a bad stretch in the middle.

Funny enough, this entire discussion started with mreinman telling me that Blake Griffin shooting 57%(13-23) wasn't good because he only hit 1-2 ft...I think we get lost in these numbers to the point where it defies logic...So he started by showing me why Harden's 7-20 was good...

mreinman
Posts: 37827
Alba Posts: 1
Joined: 7/14/2010
Member: #3189

5/18/2015  10:48 AM
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
mreinman wrote:@holfresh

I completely missed your point.

Edit: I see now ... I think that the misses are more costly.

Again, look at the Harden vs Blake numbers. How did Blake have a higher TS?

No, as in the example above..2-2 free throws = 2 pts = TS%113.6...FG 1-1 = 2pts TS%100..As in the player examples posted above..Thus 2pts at the ft line is more valuable than 2 pts scored on the court..Simple stuff..I'm not sure why you can't understand that...A 3 pointer, FG 1-1= TS%150..Can't make this sh!t up...So Harden can go 7-20 every game..Hit some ft and keep jacking threes, Morey will show u the vault...

Plug the values I have into your formula and see the results for yourself...Please do tell me the findings..I hope you are seated..


Scoring at the line *is* more valuable than from the field. You're getting the opposing team in foul trouble.
If Melo's being guarded by Lebron and you give me the choice of Melo making an FG or getting a foul on Lebron (and making both FTs), I'll take the latter.

I'm looking at numerical value while you are looking at strategic value..How does one quantify strategic value?


Well, numerically, the issue is that the average free throw uses up 0.44 possessions. That's because sometimes a player will go to the line without a possession being used up (a technical or flagrant) and other times 3 FTs = 1 possession. Also, if you make the FG and get fouled, the 1 FTA doesn't use up any possessions - the 1 FGA already does. So the .44 value works correctly with a large sample. There isn't enough data in the box score to actually check how many possessions each FT did take up. You have to use this general conversion rate.

So included in the formula is the FG attempts that aren't counted by traditional stats that I keep bringing up..So saying that Harden scored 31 pts on 20 shots isn't what is represented in TS%..In this particular case, TS% says he took 28 shots..(.44X18)..Some one needs to break this to mreinman..I hope he is seated..

That's correct (except I'd use the term possessions rather than shots).
Note that 31 points on 28 possessions is fairly good, though. Mreinman never said they weren't possessions. He said they weren't shots.
I do agree with you that there are much better stats than points per shot though.

Shot attempts/possessions same thing..U guys just want to speak differently in your exclusive boys club..Enjoy..

what would you rather have harden do?


Nothing..Harden is fine..Its you guys trying to tell me I'm watching efficiency..Save it please..

You yourself said that Harden had 31 points on 28 possessions. That's 111 points per 100 possessions. It's below Harden's average but it's still good. That number over the course of a full season would put him just outside of the top 20 in the league.

I was more questioning the methodology of analyzing Harden's numbers where ft is more highly valued..But 7-20 is 35% in the conventional world..U are trying to put lipstick on a pig...

His overall offense was efficient and that was carried by his FT dominance. His FG% was bad. It's like having a good overall week despite a bad stretch in the middle.

Funny enough, this entire discussion started with mreinman telling me that Blake Griffin shooting 57%(13-23) wasn't good because he only hit 1-2 ft...I think we get lost in these numbers to the point where it defies logic...So he started by showing me why Harden's 7-20 was good...

I never said that Hardens 7-20 was good, I actually said that he did not shoot well.

If you want to try to win an argument by constantly misquoting people then have at it. You win.

And, he hit one FT in a close out game and his 56.5 TS is not good enough and Hardens 55.5 was not good either though Harden did more to help his team then Blake did.

You can misquote that if you like.

I am sure that Karl Malone had many playoff games where he hit 1 free throw (or pick another stud power forward).

The funny thing is that you probably agree with me about Blake and him being soft yet you need to ignore that and try to prove me wrong about certain stats that I did not make up and are widely considered the gold standard.

[feel free to mix and match as you wish]

so here is what phil is thinking ....
Bonn1997
Posts: 58654
Alba Posts: 2
Joined: 2/2/2004
Member: #581
USA
5/18/2015  10:51 AM    LAST EDITED: 5/18/2015  10:52 AM
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
mreinman wrote:@holfresh

I completely missed your point.

Edit: I see now ... I think that the misses are more costly.

Again, look at the Harden vs Blake numbers. How did Blake have a higher TS?

No, as in the example above..2-2 free throws = 2 pts = TS%113.6...FG 1-1 = 2pts TS%100..As in the player examples posted above..Thus 2pts at the ft line is more valuable than 2 pts scored on the court..Simple stuff..I'm not sure why you can't understand that...A 3 pointer, FG 1-1= TS%150..Can't make this sh!t up...So Harden can go 7-20 every game..Hit some ft and keep jacking threes, Morey will show u the vault...

Plug the values I have into your formula and see the results for yourself...Please do tell me the findings..I hope you are seated..


Scoring at the line *is* more valuable than from the field. You're getting the opposing team in foul trouble.
If Melo's being guarded by Lebron and you give me the choice of Melo making an FG or getting a foul on Lebron (and making both FTs), I'll take the latter.

I'm looking at numerical value while you are looking at strategic value..How does one quantify strategic value?


Well, numerically, the issue is that the average free throw uses up 0.44 possessions. That's because sometimes a player will go to the line without a possession being used up (a technical or flagrant) and other times 3 FTs = 1 possession. Also, if you make the FG and get fouled, the 1 FTA doesn't use up any possessions - the 1 FGA already does. So the .44 value works correctly with a large sample. There isn't enough data in the box score to actually check how many possessions each FT did take up. You have to use this general conversion rate.

So included in the formula is the FG attempts that aren't counted by traditional stats that I keep bringing up..So saying that Harden scored 31 pts on 20 shots isn't what is represented in TS%..In this particular case, TS% says he took 28 shots..(.44X18)..Some one needs to break this to mreinman..I hope he is seated..

That's correct (except I'd use the term possessions rather than shots).
Note that 31 points on 28 possessions is fairly good, though. Mreinman never said they weren't possessions. He said they weren't shots.
I do agree with you that there are much better stats than points per shot though.

Shot attempts/possessions same thing..U guys just want to speak differently in your exclusive boys club..Enjoy..

what would you rather have harden do?


Nothing..Harden is fine..Its you guys trying to tell me I'm watching efficiency..Save it please..

You yourself said that Harden had 31 points on 28 possessions. That's 111 points per 100 possessions. It's below Harden's average but it's still good. That number over the course of a full season would put him just outside of the top 20 in the league.

I was more questioning the methodology of analyzing Harden's numbers where ft is more highly valued..But 7-20 is 35% in the conventional world..U are trying to put lipstick on a pig...

His overall offense was efficient and that was carried by his FT dominance. His FG% was bad. It's like having a good overall week despite a bad stretch in the middle.

Funny enough, this entire discussion started with mreinman telling me that Blake Griffin shooting 57%(13-23) wasn't good because he only hit 1-2 ft...I think we get lost in these numbers to the point where it defies logic...So he started by showing me why Harden's 7-20 was good...

You read the exact opposite of what he posted. He said this: "I don't like 7 for 20"
We have both been very clear that the overall offensive impact was good despite one aspect (the FG%) being poor. It's bad logic to weight one aspect more than the whole, though. I'd rather have a good week with a bad Tuesday than a bad week with a good Tuesday.

holfresh
Posts: 38679
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 1/14/2006
Member: #1081

5/18/2015  11:34 AM    LAST EDITED: 5/18/2015  11:35 AM
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
mreinman wrote:@holfresh

I completely missed your point.

Edit: I see now ... I think that the misses are more costly.

Again, look at the Harden vs Blake numbers. How did Blake have a higher TS?

No, as in the example above..2-2 free throws = 2 pts = TS%113.6...FG 1-1 = 2pts TS%100..As in the player examples posted above..Thus 2pts at the ft line is more valuable than 2 pts scored on the court..Simple stuff..I'm not sure why you can't understand that...A 3 pointer, FG 1-1= TS%150..Can't make this sh!t up...So Harden can go 7-20 every game..Hit some ft and keep jacking threes, Morey will show u the vault...

Plug the values I have into your formula and see the results for yourself...Please do tell me the findings..I hope you are seated..


Scoring at the line *is* more valuable than from the field. You're getting the opposing team in foul trouble.
If Melo's being guarded by Lebron and you give me the choice of Melo making an FG or getting a foul on Lebron (and making both FTs), I'll take the latter.

I'm looking at numerical value while you are looking at strategic value..How does one quantify strategic value?


Well, numerically, the issue is that the average free throw uses up 0.44 possessions. That's because sometimes a player will go to the line without a possession being used up (a technical or flagrant) and other times 3 FTs = 1 possession. Also, if you make the FG and get fouled, the 1 FTA doesn't use up any possessions - the 1 FGA already does. So the .44 value works correctly with a large sample. There isn't enough data in the box score to actually check how many possessions each FT did take up. You have to use this general conversion rate.

So included in the formula is the FG attempts that aren't counted by traditional stats that I keep bringing up..So saying that Harden scored 31 pts on 20 shots isn't what is represented in TS%..In this particular case, TS% says he took 28 shots..(.44X18)..Some one needs to break this to mreinman..I hope he is seated..

That's correct (except I'd use the term possessions rather than shots).
Note that 31 points on 28 possessions is fairly good, though. Mreinman never said they weren't possessions. He said they weren't shots.
I do agree with you that there are much better stats than points per shot though.

Shot attempts/possessions same thing..U guys just want to speak differently in your exclusive boys club..Enjoy..

what would you rather have harden do?


Nothing..Harden is fine..Its you guys trying to tell me I'm watching efficiency..Save it please..

You yourself said that Harden had 31 points on 28 possessions. That's 111 points per 100 possessions. It's below Harden's average but it's still good. That number over the course of a full season would put him just outside of the top 20 in the league.

I was more questioning the methodology of analyzing Harden's numbers where ft is more highly valued..But 7-20 is 35% in the conventional world..U are trying to put lipstick on a pig...

His overall offense was efficient and that was carried by his FT dominance. His FG% was bad. It's like having a good overall week despite a bad stretch in the middle.

Funny enough, this entire discussion started with mreinman telling me that Blake Griffin shooting 57%(13-23) wasn't good because he only hit 1-2 ft...I think we get lost in these numbers to the point where it defies logic...So he started by showing me why Harden's 7-20 was good...

You read the exact opposite of what he posted. He said this: "I don't like 7 for 20"
We have both been very clear that the overall offensive impact was good despite one aspect (the FG%) being poor. It's bad logic to weight one aspect more than the whole, though. I'd rather have a good week with a bad Tuesday than a bad week with a good Tuesday.

Ahhh..Correct..his was lauding the fact that 31pts on 20 shots was good...My bad...Well that depends on the Tuesday doesn't it especially if it involves Halle Berry..But it makes sense that u value TS% since you equate ft with being 6 of 7 days...

mreinman
Posts: 37827
Alba Posts: 1
Joined: 7/14/2010
Member: #3189

5/18/2015  11:46 AM
mreinman wrote:
holfresh wrote:
mreinman wrote:
holfresh wrote:Dude had 27 pts 11 boards and 6 asst..still didn't look like he was trying..

27 points on 23 shots is not really good.

he did make some very good passes.

still don't think they lost because of him though its easy to scapegoat him.

Reddick did not do much (offense or defense)
Crawford was bloody awful (on both ends)
austin rivers showed that he is a min player
matt barnes did zilch

right 13-23 isn't good but 7-20 is...thanks...Metrics told you shooting 57% isn't good huh...

I don't like 7 for 20 either. Harden did so many other things to make him extremely valuable even though his shot was off. THere was a reason that Ariza was wide open. Harden played a great game all around even though he had too many turnovers. He killed the clippers defense.

You really sound silly with this especially with you giving a pass for Melo who is not even remotely close. One day you will at least stand up and admit that its an illogical bias.

Harden missed a lot of shots and I would like to see him shoot better but the dude still finds away to be valuable and efficient enough even when he is off. His TS was 55.5 today. Griffins was 56.5 (which for Melo is a dream) but they needed a lot more from him.

@holfresh

stop making a fool of yourself and stating that I stated something when I stated the exact opposite.

I see that this is a habit with you and is quite childish or at the very least, blatantly lazy

so here is what phil is thinking ....
mreinman
Posts: 37827
Alba Posts: 1
Joined: 7/14/2010
Member: #3189

5/18/2015  11:48 AM    LAST EDITED: 5/18/2015  11:48 AM
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
dk7th wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
mreinman wrote:@holfresh

I completely missed your point.

Edit: I see now ... I think that the misses are more costly.

Again, look at the Harden vs Blake numbers. How did Blake have a higher TS?

No, as in the example above..2-2 free throws = 2 pts = TS%113.6...FG 1-1 = 2pts TS%100..As in the player examples posted above..Thus 2pts at the ft line is more valuable than 2 pts scored on the court..Simple stuff..I'm not sure why you can't understand that...A 3 pointer, FG 1-1= TS%150..Can't make this sh!t up...So Harden can go 7-20 every game..Hit some ft and keep jacking threes, Morey will show u the vault...

Plug the values I have into your formula and see the results for yourself...Please do tell me the findings..I hope you are seated..


Scoring at the line *is* more valuable than from the field. You're getting the opposing team in foul trouble.
If Melo's being guarded by Lebron and you give me the choice of Melo making an FG or getting a foul on Lebron (and making both FTs), I'll take the latter.

I'm looking at numerical value while you are looking at strategic value..How does one quantify strategic value?


Well, numerically, the issue is that the average free throw uses up 0.44 possessions. That's because sometimes a player will go to the line without a possession being used up (a technical or flagrant) and other times 3 FTs = 1 possession. Also, if you make the FG and get fouled, the 1 FTA doesn't use up any possessions - the 1 FGA already does. So the .44 value works correctly with a large sample. There isn't enough data in the box score to actually check how many possessions each FT did take up. You have to use this general conversion rate.

So included in the formula is the FG attempts that aren't counted by traditional stats that I keep bringing up..So saying that Harden scored 31 pts on 20 shots isn't what is represented in TS%..In this particular case, TS% says he took 28 shots..(.44X18)..Some one needs to break this to mreinman..I hope he is seated..

That's correct (except I'd use the term possessions rather than shots).
Note that 31 points on 28 possessions is fairly good, though. Mreinman never said they weren't possessions. He said they weren't shots.
I do agree with you that there are much better stats than points per shot though.

Shot attempts/possessions same thing..U guys just want to speak differently in your exclusive boys club..Enjoy..

what would you rather have harden do?


Nothing..Harden is fine..Its you guys trying to tell me I'm watching efficiency..Save it please..

You yourself said that Harden had 31 points on 28 possessions. That's 111 points per 100 possessions. It's below Harden's average but it's still good. That number over the course of a full season would put him just outside of the top 20 in the league.

I was more questioning the methodology of analyzing Harden's numbers where ft is more highly valued..But 7-20 is 35% in the conventional world..U are trying to put lipstick on a pig...

His overall offense was efficient and that was carried by his FT dominance. His FG% was bad. It's like having a good overall week despite a bad stretch in the middle.

Funny enough, this entire discussion started with mreinman telling me that Blake Griffin shooting 57%(13-23) wasn't good because he only hit 1-2 ft...I think we get lost in these numbers to the point where it defies logic...So he started by showing me why Harden's 7-20 was good...

You read the exact opposite of what he posted. He said this: "I don't like 7 for 20"
We have both been very clear that the overall offensive impact was good despite one aspect (the FG%) being poor. It's bad logic to weight one aspect more than the whole, though. I'd rather have a good week with a bad Tuesday than a bad week with a good Tuesday.

Ahhh..Correct..his was lauding the fact that 31pts on 20 shots was good...My bad...Well that depends on the Tuesday doesn't it especially if it involves Halle Berry..But it makes sense that u value TS% since you equate ft with being 6 of 7 days...

FAIL again ... I never said this, see post above.

you need to stop doing this. try actually arguing without resorting to making sh1t up.

so here is what phil is thinking ....
holfresh
Posts: 38679
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 1/14/2006
Member: #1081

5/18/2015  11:58 AM
mreinman wrote:
mreinman wrote:
holfresh wrote:
mreinman wrote:
holfresh wrote:Dude had 27 pts 11 boards and 6 asst..still didn't look like he was trying..

27 points on 23 shots is not really good.

he did make some very good passes.

still don't think they lost because of him though its easy to scapegoat him.

Reddick did not do much (offense or defense)
Crawford was bloody awful (on both ends)
austin rivers showed that he is a min player
matt barnes did zilch

right 13-23 isn't good but 7-20 is...thanks...Metrics told you shooting 57% isn't good huh...

I don't like 7 for 20 either. Harden did so many other things to make him extremely valuable even though his shot was off. THere was a reason that Ariza was wide open. Harden played a great game all around even though he had too many turnovers. He killed the clippers defense.

You really sound silly with this especially with you giving a pass for Melo who is not even remotely close. One day you will at least stand up and admit that its an illogical bias.

Harden missed a lot of shots and I would like to see him shoot better but the dude still finds away to be valuable and efficient enough even when he is off. His TS was 55.5 today. Griffins was 56.5 (which for Melo is a dream) but they needed a lot more from him.

@holfresh

stop making a fool of yourself and stating that I stated something when I stated the exact opposite.

I see that this is a habit with you and is quite childish or at the very least, blatantly lazy

Please dude...You are worshiping a methodology that had no clue how it worked...It values ft higher than fg and u didn't know and you still don't question it...Stop with the self righteous nonsense...

mreinman
Posts: 37827
Alba Posts: 1
Joined: 7/14/2010
Member: #3189

5/18/2015  12:07 PM
holfresh wrote:
mreinman wrote:
mreinman wrote:
holfresh wrote:
mreinman wrote:
holfresh wrote:Dude had 27 pts 11 boards and 6 asst..still didn't look like he was trying..

27 points on 23 shots is not really good.

he did make some very good passes.

still don't think they lost because of him though its easy to scapegoat him.

Reddick did not do much (offense or defense)
Crawford was bloody awful (on both ends)
austin rivers showed that he is a min player
matt barnes did zilch

right 13-23 isn't good but 7-20 is...thanks...Metrics told you shooting 57% isn't good huh...

I don't like 7 for 20 either. Harden did so many other things to make him extremely valuable even though his shot was off. THere was a reason that Ariza was wide open. Harden played a great game all around even though he had too many turnovers. He killed the clippers defense.

You really sound silly with this especially with you giving a pass for Melo who is not even remotely close. One day you will at least stand up and admit that its an illogical bias.

Harden missed a lot of shots and I would like to see him shoot better but the dude still finds away to be valuable and efficient enough even when he is off. His TS was 55.5 today. Griffins was 56.5 (which for Melo is a dream) but they needed a lot more from him.

@holfresh

stop making a fool of yourself and stating that I stated something when I stated the exact opposite.

I see that this is a habit with you and is quite childish or at the very least, blatantly lazy

Please dude...You are worshiping a methodology that had no clue how it worked...It values ft higher than fg and u didn't know and you still don't question it...Stop with the self righteous nonsense...

first, I accept your apologies for all the intentional misquotes ... don't worry about it.

Again I ask,

Harden had 31 points on 20 shots

Blake had 27 points on 23 shots

who had the higher TS?

let me make this simpler and give you the choices:

choice 1: [blinking]Blake[/blinking]
choice 2: Harden

why? check the math yourself ...

I have read many articles about the Free Throw valuations in TS, and while some may be valid and no stat is perfect, most accept it as the gold standard.

so here is what phil is thinking ....
Blake Griffin 1 for 2 FT's today

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