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DrAlphaeus
Posts: 23751 Alba Posts: 10 Joined: 12/19/2007 Member: #1781 |
arkrud wrote:DrAlphaeus wrote:Nalod wrote:when I was in the 8th grade my friend had stolen some money from my fathers drawer. About$50. He had done this to others. When he learned of the accusation he went on how he was gonna kick my ass for talking smack. Dude was big and lifted weights! I had no chance. I was in class and he was posturing outside the door way how at the end of class it was gonna be on. Really, I was scared. Nalod for some reason thought it be best to get this over with and at least the teachers could pull us apart if it happend in the hall than off school grounds and we'd both be in trouble. If his parents got involved it would would be over. If you have some links to support your claims, I'd appreciate it... otherwise I will look some of this up. I haven't been following the negotiations very closely and still trying to catch up on the geopolitics of this. Iran is Shi'a so I think you meant Sunni Arab countries. No doubt the Arab countries are wary of Iran's influence, Kerry had to assuage the Saudis' fears the other day. As to your claim that mass suicide via a nuclear first strike is theologically sound with the ayatollahs, my research suggests the opposite: that Khomeini and subsequent Iranian leaders issued fatwas against chemical and nuclear weapons programs, claiming them haram and handcuffing Iranian troops from chemical weapon retribution on Iraq in their war. http://theweek.com/articles/442912/khomeini-said-iranian-nukes I of course don't want Iran to have the bomb but I also ideally wouldn't want anyone to have the bomb. And I'm down on nuclear energy in principle: it can be damn near carbon-free but the waste and environmental issues are still problems that haven't been solved. Baba Booey 2016 — "It's Silly Season"
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arkrud
Posts: 32217 Alba Posts: 7 Joined: 8/31/2005 Member: #995 USA |
DrAlphaeus wrote:arkrud wrote:DrAlphaeus wrote:Nalod wrote:when I was in the 8th grade my friend had stolen some money from my fathers drawer. About$50. He had done this to others. When he learned of the accusation he went on how he was gonna kick my ass for talking smack. Dude was big and lifted weights! I had no chance. I was in class and he was posturing outside the door way how at the end of class it was gonna be on. Really, I was scared. Nalod for some reason thought it be best to get this over with and at least the teachers could pull us apart if it happend in the hall than off school grounds and we'd both be in trouble. If his parents got involved it would would be over. Speaking about Ayatollah: Estimates as to the size of the Israeli nuclear arsenal vary between 75 and 400 nuclear warheads. It is estimated that the Israel nuclear deterrent force has the ability to deliver them by intermediate-range ballistic missile, intercontinental ballistic missile, aircraft, and submarine-launched cruise missile.[2] The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates that Israel has approximately 80 intact nuclear weapons, of which 50 are for delivery by Jericho II medium-range ballistic missiles and 30 are gravity bombs for delivery by aircraft.[2] I do not think US want the things get to this point but it is very close with Obama wait and see policies. "There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy." Hamlet
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DrAlphaeus
Posts: 23751 Alba Posts: 10 Joined: 12/19/2007 Member: #1781 |
Thanks for the link arkrud. To your point, the IAEA head is not satisfied with Iran's cooperation so far:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/02/us-iran-nuclear-iaea-idUSKBN0LY0UV20150302 I was looking for what Netanyahu's alternative plan would look like, found this: Netanyahu, however, insisted on Wednesday that he had "presented a practical alternative, which would impose tougher restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, extending Iran's breakout time by years". http://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/diplomacy-defense/63171-150304-netanyahu-to-obama-i-presented-practical-alternative-to-bad-iran-deal I agree that the "Death to/Down with America/Israel/Britain" rhetoric is disappointing and disgusting. I wish they would retire it. To jrod's point about North Korea as a cautionary tale, I looked up info about our last agreement and why they pulled out of the NNPT. It looks like there were problems with the strength of the agreement to start, implementation was stalled by the Clinton administration hoping the Kim dynasty would collapse, and started to be implemented half-heartedly by the time Bush declared NK part of the Axis of Evil in the 2002 State of the Union. By a year later they expelled the inspectors and withdrew from the NNPT. So it's good we are still talking with Iran and that they are still in the NNPT. While I can't blame Netanyahu for wanting to address a joint session for his national security and election purposes, I think it was a crass move on Boehner's part constitutionally and politically. With that in the rear view, I hope it is a strong agreement. Deadline for talks is March 24. I think any bills in Congress before then could further gum up the works. I'd theoretically prefer a supermajority approval in Senate of any agreement... but I don't have a lot of faith in Congress, and certainly skeptical of the speeches of Netanyahu, especially when Israel aren't a party to the framework keeping us in talks, and considering he was part of the chorus that goaded Congress into authorizing the toppling of Saddam. Pictures of cartoon bombs remind me of vials of yellowcake and dreams of aluminum tubes... I'm not going to take Netanyahu's demagoguery at face value. Baba Booey 2016 — "It's Silly Season"
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holfresh
Posts: 38679 Alba Posts: 0 Joined: 1/14/2006 Member: #1081 |
The Economist..A very fair minded publication's take:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2015/03/america-and-iran?spc=scode&spv=xm&ah=9d7f7ab945510a56fa6d37c30b6f1709 The best of bad options THE March 24th deadline for an agreement with Iran may be looming, but the parties to the talks have kept impressively quiet about the details being hammered out this week in Montreux, Switzerland. Despite speculation that a deal is imminent, significant gaps still remain which could yet scupper one. Iran, unrealistically, is demanding the immediate removal of all sanctions. Barack Obama, America’s president, can suspend most of America’s, but only Congress can remove sanctions that it has legislated. The rapturous applause for the speech Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, gave to Congress on March 3rd suggests that suspension is the best the Iranians can get from America for the foreseeable future. The European Union and the United Nations Security Council could, however, remove their sanctions more permanently. Iran also wants to be able to continue to develop more advanced centrifuges, which would allow the rapid ramp-up of uranium enrichment (and thus speed the path to a bomb) once the agreed restrictions fall away. The centrifuges that Iran hopes eventually to deploy spin about six times faster than the ones installed now, which they say they will need to produce low-enriched uranium (LEU) on the industrial scale needed to fuel commercial reactors. Iran has said it will accept the International Atomic Energy Authority’s (IAEA) Additional Protocol, which involves more intrusive inspections of nuclear facilities than usual. But Iran has not yet agreed to other inspections, which given its history of cheating is deemed a necessary requirement by the West. A final key issue yet to be resolved is that Iran must come clean about past weapons-programme activities. It has thus far steadily refused to do so because it still insists, no matter how implausibly, that there never were any. That said, the outlines of a deal are now in place that would extend the “break-out” period—ie, how long it would take Iran to produce 25kg of highly-enriched uranium (the standard measure for one weapon’s worth) were it to decide to renege on its commitments—to more than a year. That compares with what most estimates suggest is a current break-out time of about three months. The main components of the agreement, according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, would look something like this: The 9,500 centrifuges now currently operating would be cut to about 6,000–7,000. The Israeli prime minister’s excoriation of this as a “bad deal” is not without foundation. He is right to say that it will leave Iran as a nuclear-weapons threshold state and that Iran will quite probably continue to use that as a means to bully and intimidate its neighbours. He is also right to say that without dismantling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, the country will continue to have a path to a bomb, which may become even more rapid after ten years, when the first stage of the deal lapses. What he has failed to do is to propose anything better. He argues that if sanctions are maintained and even tightened, a chastened Iran will return to the negotiating table and give in to every demand made of it, no matter the degree of national humiliation that would entail. There is no evidence at all for the truth of this. In fact, people who understand Iran well or are close to the negotiations believe the exact opposite of what Mr Netanyahu claims. Iran is suffering from sanctions, but it is a proud nation that will not be brought to its knees. Mr Netanyahu accuses others of wishful thinking, but if he genuinely believes what he is saying, he is guilty of it too. It may be that he does not. Mr Netanyahu insists that he is not advocating for war with Iran, but it is hard to draw any other logical conclusion from the position he has staked out. The trouble is that only America has the military power to deal a serious and lasting blow to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Even then, it would not wipe out enough of a vast and sprawling enterprise to set Iran back by more than a few years. And it would make it virtually certain that Iran’s leaders, having expelled the IAEA weapons inspectors, would authorise the resumption of a clandestine nuclear weapons programme at the first opportunity. President Obama clearly has no appetite for this unattractive risk-to-reward calculus. It is also doubtful whether any presidential successor, or even Mr Netanyahu’s Congressional cheerleaders, would see things very differently were they in his position. If Iran does at some point make the momentous choice to get the bomb, military action is very likely to be the consequence. But that will represent failure rather than success. Until then, what Mr Netanyahu calls a bad deal looks quite a bit better than any of the alternatives. |
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arkrud
Posts: 32217 Alba Posts: 7 Joined: 8/31/2005 Member: #995 USA |
holfresh wrote:The Economist..A very fair minded publication's take: The unstoppable stupidity of US foreign policy by both republicans and democrats has no boundaries. "There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy." Hamlet
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Splat
Posts: 23774 Alba Posts: 1 Joined: 7/19/2014 Member: #5862 |
arkrud wrote:holfresh wrote:The Economist..A very fair minded publication's take: This is an article for you: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/14/-sp-western-model-broken-pankaj-mishra I've got a fever and the only prescription is more cowbell!
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arkrud
Posts: 32217 Alba Posts: 7 Joined: 8/31/2005 Member: #995 USA |
Splat wrote:arkrud wrote:holfresh wrote:The Economist..A very fair minded publication's take: Interesting view... "There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy." Hamlet
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DrAlphaeus
Posts: 23751 Alba Posts: 10 Joined: 12/19/2007 Member: #1781 |
More news on this recently:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/10/world/asia/white-house-faults-gop-senators-letter-to-irans-leaders.html 47 Senate Republicans wrote a letter directly to the Iranian leadership with a short lesson on the US Constitution(?!?) warning that any agreement between the Obama and Khamenei administrations without Congressional approval could be immediately revoked by the next president. I agree that from my reading of the Constitution, ideally this agreement/treaty should be put to a vote. But man, the GOP are really being wildcards here: first inviting the Israel PM and now directly communicating with the Iranian government, all around Obama and the State Department. Congresspeople running around the Executive in foreign policy isn't a new thing — Pelosi met with Assad in 2007, McDermott from Washington State and 2 other Congresspeople went to Iraq in 2002. I'm not opposed to challenges from the Congress regarding foreign affairs as a check and balance but this just seems beyond the pale. Here is an article about the Iraq trip, with a quote from McCain (one of the signers of this letter) that's awesomely ironic now: http://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/30/international/30CONG.html Senator Don Nickles, Republican of Oklahoma, who is the party's assistant leader in the Senate, said Mr. McDermott and Mr. Bonior "both sound somewhat like spokespersons for the Iraqi government." He said it was "counterproductive" to undermine Mr. Bush when he was seeking support from allies. Baba Booey 2016 — "It's Silly Season"
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DrAlphaeus
Posts: 23751 Alba Posts: 10 Joined: 12/19/2007 Member: #1781 |
Some more information: the Arkansas Senator who organized the letter — Tom Cotton, an Iraq and Afghanistan war vet who supports a "policy of 'regime change'" in Iran — said at the Conservative Policy Summit in January:
"The end of these negotiations isn't an unintended consequence of congressional action. It is very much an intended consequence. A feature, not a bug, so speak." http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/09/tom-cotton-iran_n_6831328.html With friends like this, who need enemies? Baba Booey 2016 — "It's Silly Season"
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Splat
Posts: 23774 Alba Posts: 1 Joined: 7/19/2014 Member: #5862 |
DrAlphaeus wrote:Some more information: the Arkansas Senator who organized the letter — Tom Cotton, an Iraq and Afghanistan war vet who supports a "policy of 'regime change'" in Iran — said at the Conservative Policy Summit in January:"The end of these negotiations isn't an unintended consequence of congressional action. It is very much an intended consequence. A feature, not a bug, so speak."
I've got a fever and the only prescription is more cowbell!
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arkrud
Posts: 32217 Alba Posts: 7 Joined: 8/31/2005 Member: #995 USA |
DrAlphaeus wrote:More news on this recently: Unfortunately the political brinkmanship is more important for US politicians from both sides dems/reps congress/president that the issue on hand... as usual. "There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy." Hamlet
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